Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Last edited by shoewizard on Fri Aug 25, 2006 5:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

Nice long thread title...because....well.....If we know anything....we know Josh Byrnes is full of surprises. Really, it's almost impossible to project what he will do. For example, if he trades Estrada, a big if right there....does he get back a major league ready pitcher, an old warhorse veteran, or a prospects? Will he resign Gonzo at a cheaper rate, or let him go? Which of the arbitration bullpen arms will they keep among Lyon, Viscaino, and Julio? (He won't keep all 3, I'm pretty sure of that, as it would be too expensive)

But....since this seems to be popular to do lately....here goes:

Catching: I think he will trade Estrada. I think he will look to sell high on a good year. There seems to be other issues with Estrada, i.e. health, attitude, and he does not seem happy here. Snyder is ready to be the starting catcher again. The question is whether or not they will promote Montero, or go find a veteran backup. They may also decide to give Robbie Hammock one more shot.
Either way, I would not expect them to be spending much on the back up catcher spot. So forgetting the name there, I just have major league minimum as the number:

C-Snyder- 360,000
C- Montero- 330,000

Infield: Starters need no explanation as far as who will be there. I don't think they will trade Tracy, and will just keep working with him to try to improve his defense and cutdown his K's. As far as Counsell backing up next year.....doubtful. Craig will probably get a better deal somewhere else for more money and more playing time than he can get here.

1b-Jackson 360,000
2b-Hudson 3,300,000
3b-Tracy 2,750,000
SS-Drew 1,500,000 *
U- Callaspo 340,000
U- A. Green 340,000
1b-PH Clark 1,000,000

Not sure how they will count Drew's money. Here is what Cotts says:

Stephen Drew ss
5 years/$5.5M (2005-09)

signed major-league contract 5/05
$4M signing bonus paid over 4 years
average annual salaries of $0.3M, 2005-09
$2M in "easily attainable" incentives, bringing total possible value of $7.5M

So I figure 330,000 for league minimum, another 1 million of his "signing bonus".......plus at least a couple of hundred thousand of his incentive money. I know signing bonuses are not usually counted as part of "salary"...but for arguements sake, I am putting it in there. Figure it's a "buffer" in case I am underestmating elsewhere.

Outfield: I don' think Gonzo will be back. I think they will keep Byrnes and Davanon and use them in LF, and start Young in CF and Quentin in RF. The choice is clearly between a Byrnes/Davanon platoon, or Gonzo. Which would you pick?

LF- Byrnes 3,500,000
CF-Young 340,000
RF-Quentin 340,000
4th-Davanon 1,100,000
5th-Hairston 340,000

+ Shawn Green 5,000,000

DEEP BREATH.......

Position player totals are 20,900,000 based on above.
Lets just round off and say position players will take up 21 million

PITCHING STAFF

1.) I don't think Ortiz's 8 million is going to count against what Josh Byrnes can use. Internal decision. (Kendrick ROCKS!!)

2.) Among the 4 arbitration eligible relief pitchers, I think they will keep Lyon, Valverde and Viscaino, and trade Julio....because Julio will get more in arbitration because of his saves total, but he is not the better pitcher. They probably won't keep all 4 and spend all that much money on bullpen arms.

3.) as you can see too many pitchers listed below....I don't know who they will keep...and have not double checked who if anyone still has options....but it works for the sake of numbers. Guys still get paid major league salary when they go on the DL and when someone is brought up to replace them that guys gets ML min. salary....so the names may not all be right...but the numbers should be close enough:

so............with roughly 39 million leftover to spend

Rotation

1. Webb 4,500,000
2. Livan 7,000,000
3. Free Agent: ???????
4. Vargas 1,500,000
5. En. Gonazalez 350,000
6. Cruz : 750,000

Bullpen

1. Viscaino 2,500,000
2. Lyon 1,200,000
3. Medders 350,000
4. Valverde 800,000
5. Pena 340,000
6. Aquino 350,000
Total Pitching Staff 19.64 Million

Summary:
Based on the esitmates above, the total for the position players and pitchers comes out to APPROXIMATELY 41 MILLION

Assuming a 60 million payroll....that leaves them 19 Million to sign free agents. Josh Byrnes has said over and over again that FA Pitching is fools gold. But in this situation, I can't see how he won't either sign a guy, or do a trade and sign for a guy one year from Free Agency, i.e. Oswalt. (obviously you have to negotiate extension up front in that situation)

They may try to sign one TOP TIER guy, like Jason Schmidt....which would run anywhere from 13 to 15 million a year and be a minimum 3 year commitment, but more likely 4 and possibly even 5. If they did that, they STILL would have 7 million to play with for another pitcher ....or......

They may also decide to trade or sign a middle of the order power bat...although i don't know where you would slide him in. Looking at the FA names, they all look like they are either too expensive, or play a position we already have filled, or are injury prone, or some combination of all of that. Carlos Lee or Gary Sheffield could be considered for LF I guess if you wanted to get rid of BOTH Gonzo and Byrnes........but probably too expensive.

Nomar? Pass Edmonds...Pass.....Huff?.....Pass Pedro Feliz ? Maybe... since his defense is better than Tracy's...so maybe you sign a guy like that and trade Tracy? I don't know.

Personlly, I would pump the 20+ million into starting pitching, and get one TOP TIER guy NOW, and one second tier guy as well.....

Whether you do that by trade or by signing FA.....they should do it now. I realize all the young position players are not quite ready to lead "us" to glory in 2007, but what else are they gonna do with the money? As long as they lock up whoever they sign for 3-4 years, and it covers them till 2009-2010, and they develop some of the young pitchers at the same time, they will be in great shape.

If they get two good pitchers to join Webb and Livan for 2007, they are the favorites to win the West, or right there with the Dodgers at least.

Finally....looking beyond 2007, once Greens 5 million and Livans 5.5 million is off the books...they have more money freed up...but you have to also take into account salary's going up for Webb, Tracy, and the others....so you really won't save all that much of that 10.5 million when it's all said and done. And they will have to replace Livan.

So the decisions made THIS offseason are going to shape this team for the next 4 years.

GO GET EM JOSH!!!1

EStreetMan · September Call-Up Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 84

[quote="shoewizard"]

They may also decide to give Robbie Hammock one more shot.
I think your right on with this one. Gives BoMel some flexability also. This guy can play all over the place.................

]I don' think Gonzo will be back.
Let me know if you want to bet that pitcher of beer. Someone in another thread wrote about how Josh was in Boston when they traded Nomar the face of the franchise. While I have stated many times before that this team has money to burn the owners will not take the hit that would come if Gonzo does not come back for a farwell season tour. Remember the Red Sox sellout everygame at much higher prices than the DBACKS do. Much easier for them to take the PR hit than the DBACKS owners to take the PR and $$ hit. Sign Gonzo for $5 or $6 million and the season ticket base comes back next year. Dont sign him and it takes a MAJOR hit. You thought some of the crowds this year were small............

2.) I don't think Ortiz's 8 million is going to count against what Josh Byrnes can use. Internal decision. (Kendrick ROCKS!!)

If they get two good pitchers to join Webb and Livan for 2007, they are the favorites to win the West, or right there with the Dodgers at least.
Lets hope they spend the cash and go after Schmidt and one other. If they dont get Schmidt I would love to get another second tier guy maybe a Padilla or Eaton in here. If not I have no problem showing patience. Before I was all over spending on FA but you guys changed my mind. FA pitchers are fools gold..............

So the decisions made THIS offseason are going to shape this team for the next 4 years.
Im thinking Mr. Josh likes to be flexable at all times. I dont think he is going to get locked into much long term that he cant get out of. I see guys like Q, Drew, Young and Webb here longterm. Everything else right now and in the future could be up for grabs as long as the deal is right not just next year but for years to come..............

Should be a fun offseason of guess work though.................. Smile

scott (Let the games begin)

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 11:54 am Post subject:

I guess Shoe answered my question... Very Happy

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I cant see Byrnes getting rid of both estrada and Gonzo. I just cant see it... i might be wrong, but im not sure they want to go THAT young THAT fast...

IOW byrnes, clark, davanon, as the vets, and hudson, tracy, snyder as the the only other guys with more than 1 year of exp...

Im not saying its not the right thing to do... but i could see us keeping estrada or gonzo for that reason...

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:56 pm Post subject:

About Gonzo:

I remember the night that Josh Byrnes appeared on the D backs live post game from Fox Sports Grill. This was right after the hissy fit. When asked about Gonzo coming back next year, he looked right into the camera, and said very seriously and sternly, "if Luis is back next year, it will only be to play full time"

What happened is that after his hissy fit, and also in lieu of all his earlier comments about not accepting a part time or platooning role..."NOT HAPPENING" was the direct quote, they all sat down, and basically told him that he had better put up or shut up. Up to that point, he was just not playing like a guy that should be making those kinds of demands....even with his history here.

So he went out, and he found that intensity and concentration....hey gonzo was a great player once. But he was only able to maintain it about a month. Thats what happens when you get old in this game. Unless you are chemically enhanced...or an absolute freak.....or both....when you turn 39, it's just not there on a daily basis for a 162 game grind.

Gonzo is on pace for about 155 games played and 680 Plate appearances!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

He really painted himself into a corner here and has not played this too smart. It may have seemed like he gained some leverage with his hot July...and that is probably about when "his people" started spreading around the "buzz" that a Gonzo extension was in the works. But clearly the dude is in decline. He is not going to get better next year. EVERYONE knows that. It only gets worse as he turns 40.

He just can't play every day anymore and not have it affect his performance.

Look at his month to month OPS

April .876
May .762
June .624
July 1.153
August .717

Season .828

Who knows how he will do from here on out this season. But clearly Gonzo is a very very poor bet to perform above league average next year, and a very very high risk to fall off a cliff.

There is NO WAY they will bring him back, even at a reduced rate, to play in a full time role.

The ONLY way would be if Gonzo publicly backs down from his "no platoon" stance. If the team really is worried about season ticket sales, they might re sign him if he accepts such a role. But season ticket sales be damned....there is no way the organization is going to go through another year just like this one...only worse....with Gonzo further declining and refusing to be sat against lefties.

That won't happen. Book it.

As far as the Gonzo/Estrada Linkage.....they are seperate issues. One won't influence the other.

2007 will be....

C- Snyder's 4th year
1b- Jackson's 3rd
2b- Hudson's 6th
SS- Drew's 2nd
3b- Tracy's 4th
LF- Byrnes 8th
CF- Young's 2nd...(ok, Im stretching it here...he will be a rookie in 07)
RF- Quentin's 2nd (Not as big a stretch here...he is older..and been up longer)

You will have bench guys around like Davanon and Clark.

Thats enough Veteran Presence to get them through.

moviegeekjn · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:17 pm Post subject:

Another point about the season ticket holder base.....

Some additional erosion is possible or even likely, whether Gonzo stays or goes. I don't think anyone can accurately assess exactly how many season ticket holders would choose not to renew specifically because Gonzo was not resigned. I think Scott is overestimating just how large an impact that would have.

And there are two things that could happen between now and then that could greatly mitigate any fallout or further decline in season ticket sales:

1.) Spectacular play by the rookies....getting everyone excited

2.) An EARLY signing of a guy like Schmidt

2007 will probably be ANOTHER tough year attendance and revenue wise...but I believe the worm will turn and the upswing will happen heading into 2008. Ownership has enough money to ride it out till then.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Is there a link anywhere that has the deferrred payments, and who we are paying them to... for example, are we still paying matt williams? While that shouldnt have a direct impact on the budget for salaries, it could help to the team make a deadline deal, if they know that someone is coming off the books...

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:29 pm Post subject:

There is no link for that...but deferred salary money is seperate. Even once the deferred salary debt is paid off, if revenues don't increase, they won't increase payroll. (Unless they want to run the business at a deficit again)

Heading into this season, their Debt to Value ratio had dropped from over 100% down to 79%. I am guessing it will drop to around 50% after this year. (Forbes.com has this info)

Just from memory, they originally had about 200 million in deferred salary debt and 100 million in stadium debt.

I believe the deferred salary debt was down to about the 120-140 million range heading into this season, and they were looking at probably minimum 2-3 more years to pay off the bulk of it.

So for sure there will be no payroll bump directly linked to deferred salary payoffs within the next 24 months....if payroll goes up, it will be because revenues went up.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

I'd be just totally psyched if they were going to eat the Oritz salary burden without effecting their cap. If they have about 22MM to go after arms next year, we should field a decent team.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I didnt realize it was that much... So we are looking at between 60-70M for the foreseeable future...

Quick thing on the age... i just did a real quick average of the starting 8 you have listed... (after adding a year to thier age today) i got 26.1 years old on average. Compared to this years stats, az would be the 2nd youngest team in the majors (older than the marlins by a smidge) Im not quite comparing apples to apples, (benches included in the link below) but it gives you an idea...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rosters

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:55 pm Post subject:

yeah....but thats ok to me....

they would probably be inconsistent in 2007 and be ready to set the world on fire in 2008.....and perhaps get younger still....with Carlos Gonzalez and maybe even Justin Upton entering mix, not to mention a couple of this past seasons pitching draftees perhaps.

This is going to be a YOUNG team for the forseeable future. Adding in one or two PV's (TM) is not going to change the dynamic all that much.

Also....Gonzo and Estrada are a pain in the butt now....not exactly the stabilizing influence you are looking for, right? So keeping them in the interest of keeping enough veteran presence on the roster does not really have a net postive effect in that all important chemistry or intangible department.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:58 pm Post subject:

Ownership had to make cash calls and raise additional money from the other owners.......and by major league rules, deferred salary money is actually supposed to "be there" in seperate accounts. They raised the cash to fill these accounts. When the deferred salary money is paid off, those accounts will be empty. It is truly "Seperate"

As you say...if they want to raise MORE money and invest more money in payroll, seperate from that, it would be great from our fans perspective. Hey...like Levski often says...it's not my money.

But from all indications, they are looking to run this business like.....a business....and run it profitably, controlling costs to be under revenues.

Hopefully by 2008-2009 revenues will be up significantly, and they can afford to keep all the excellent young talent.

Here is a sobering thought. Stephen Drew's contract is up at the end of 2009, just 3 full seasons away. And his agent of course is Scott Boras...who ALWAYS has his client test free agency. The odds of the D backs being able to sign Drew to an extension before then are pretty slim, in my opinion. By mid season 2009, if something has gone wrong with the "plan" and the d backs are not serious contendors.....expect Drew to be traded and gone before 2009 is over.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:03 pm Post subject:

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I think you have said schmidt would be your choice as the top guy...

who would be the 2nd tier guy via FA? (Lets assume no trade for westbrook)

Lilly? Ohka? Battista?

baldmaga · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:16 pm Post subject:

Ted Lilly or Adam Eaton would be excellent 2nd tier, 3-4th spot in the rotation guys

Webb
Schmidt/Oswalt
Hernandez
Lilly/Eaton
Cruz/Enrique/Nippert/Owings/Batista - that spot is definitley up in the air

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

lidle?

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:38 pm Post subject:

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Funny - fast outfield... i feel wierd saying that...

dirtygary · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:49 pm Post subject:

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

Toronto have any good prospects? theyre going to need a catcher AND a cfer after this year...

Aaron · Posted: Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:14 pm Post subject:

Yeah, really great write-up Shoe. A couple of my thoughts:

1) I mentioned this elsewhere, but why the outcry to move Estrada? Is it those comments about wanting to play in SF? Or the fact that we could save $3MM? Personally, I think he's the most worthwhile veteran on the roster and a perfect placeholder for the Montero/Snyder era. The guy hits well for a catcher, still relatively young (30 yrs old), and not that expensive.

And does anybody beleive that we can get anything truly worthwhile in an Estrada trade (anything beyond what it took to acquire him -- ie a couple of questionable middle releivers)? I'm all for dealing him if someone is offering something valuable, but I don't see it happening.

The board seems to have turned on him somewhat, I'm wondering why.

2) From a pure dollars standpoint (and assuming Hairston is looked at as the starter, as Shoe implies), looking at the numbers I can conjure scenarios where signing Luis makes sense. If we're comitting $4.5MM+ for Byrnes/Davanon(realizing the Byrnes' projection is an estimate), why not Gonzo/Hairston for roughly the same dollars? Gonzo is declining for sure, but I have about as much faith in him next season as I do Byrnes. And then there's the whole PR portion of signing him.

Personally, I'd like to see Hairston given every chance to win the job with Byrnes playing the 4th OF role (unless, again, some team were willing to give up something valuable for Byrnes. Like Estrada, I think Byrnes' offseason value will be muted). Obviously that won't happen w/ Gonzo on the roster so I really don't want him re-signed. But, if Hairston's role is limited either way next season, my opposition to Gonzo will be reduced.

3) Yes, all FA dollars need to be spent on starting pitching. But only if the right guys are available. For me, it's an Oswalt trade or a Schmidt signing. Beyond that, I'm inclined to sign a couple of one-year deals (Wade Miller? Wood?) with people and wait for the SP class of 2008 (Oswalt, Zambrano, etc).