Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 12:14 pm Post subject: Playoff Odds and stuff

Per BP PLayoff Odds report on August 22 D backs are down to 12% playoff odds, 11% on Pecota playoff odds

Team EQA down to .256, 24th in majors

Team DEF down to .681, 29th in majors

Team OPS for the month of August .698

Oponents OPS for the month of August .853

Team ERA for the Month of August 4.36 (Season overall 4.56)

Hank · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:14 pm Post subject:

So, from those numbers, can we extrapolate that Tracy is killing the defense, the entire offense not named Drew is pretty much sucking (so BoMel can take care of that by reinserting Counsell), and Livan has been a pleasant surprise that has helped the pitching a little bit? (slight sarcasm there, but probably not totally off base, either)

Playoffs this year look pretty dim, but the foundation for better things seems to be in place going forward, especially if the Mets take Green and at least a little of his salary off our hands...

Zephon · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:23 pm Post subject:

I have never expected the dbacks to make the playoffs this year. I look forward to '07, and '08 when we'll have a team that should be able to easily take the west. We just need to avoid making a stupid move like keeping Gonzo for next year.

In my mind, and many others, this should be a lineup that wins

1b Jackson
2b Hudson/Callaspo
SS Drew
3b Tracy
Lf Hairston/Byrnes(Green if we can't manage to get rid of him in the off season)
Cf Young
Rf Quentin
C Snyder/Estrada/Montero

Just the defensive gains from Quentin vs Green, Byrnes Vs Young, and anybody vs Gonzo should be enough to give us a few more wins.

Add in improved defense from the infield, and improved offense, and I think we could certaintly have a winner with this team, even if half the team are rookie or 2nd year players/
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-Zephon

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:54 pm Post subject:

We could be in for a whole lot of 2nd place finsihes if LA gets Zito or Willis, and their system is able to produce the arms.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

Yes there is always the "looks good on paper" tragedy that has struck many teams who've thought they built a "winner". The good news is that we should be capable of competing/winning.

Zephon · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:28 pm Post subject:

The thing is, Zito isn't that great of a pitcher ANYMORE. I'm sure someone like Shoe could post the numbers, but his K rate his down, he's giving up more flyballs, and his ERA is climbing. Outside of the year he won the CY(I believe it was '03) he hasn't been anything but slightly above average.

I still don't think Florida will part with Willis, and it certaintly take quite a bit to acquire him. He'd cost at least three good prospects. If LA got Willis, they'd make a gain in pitching, but at the cost of part of their future. Willis also in the midst of a decline in performance, and a lot of people consider him an injury risk with his funky mechanics.

The thing I've thought long and hard about is we ARE going to end up trading away some of our prospects to get some decent pitching, at least until some solid pitching prospects emerge in our system. Josh Byrnes said it himself when he called FA pitcher's "fool's gold"

For this team to win, we need to acquire a reliable number two starter(not an ace), and we need to get three consistent starters. Right now, we have a number one starter(Webb), a number three starter(livan), and a bunch of guys that have been terribly inconsistent. Most of these guys aren't going to amount to much more than number 5 starters. Juan Cruz and Enrique Gonzales have shown at times that they could be more than back end of the rotation starters, but Vargas and Batista seem like they just aren't good enough.
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-Zephon

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:35 pm Post subject:

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:38 pm Post subject:

P.S. Oswalt is reportedly unhappy with negotiations with HOU and doesn't look to resign. There have already been rumors regarding Schmidt coming to AZ. So it's not that farfetched. Embarassed

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Oops in the 2 hole!

EStreetMan · September Call-Up Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 84

[quote="B. O. N. D."]

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:07 pm Post subject:

Zephon · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:07 pm Post subject:

Ross Ohlendorf, Micah Owings, Steven Jackson, Greg Smith, Dustin Nippert, Matt Torra, Max Sherzer, Ryan Anderson, Hector Ambriz, Cesar Valdez.. One of these guys has to stick.
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-Zephon

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:10 pm Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 3:18 pm Post subject:

Oswalt is going to ask for and get at least 5 years 75 million
Schmidt is probably going to ask for 5 years and probably get 4 yr, and he will get 13-14 million a year.

Signing both these guys? Impossible. Signing one of them? Improbable.

I had hoped that Schmidt MIGHT be interested in signing a shorter or cheaper deal to be in AZ, but I have since learned that is unlikely. He will follow the money like everyone else. All things being equal...i.e. if AZ matched whatever other offers he gets...sure he would have to strongly consider signing here.

The only way would be if AZ felt comfortable to bump team payroll back up to 75-80 million for 2007 and beyond. But the last I heard, they are in holding pattern at 60-65 until the debt is mostly paid off.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

EStreetMan · September Call-Up Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 84

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:23 pm Post subject:

No Estrada... Montero ready for 2007?? Hmm...

Clark and a few others they could trim are on there.

No Batista. No Byrnes.

I wish I had a better handle on Callaspo... with money saved AND trading Hudson... Oswalt might be in reach. Let Andy Green be the utility.

I've heard great stuff about Callaspo's glove... surely he projects to be better at the bat than Hudson with his gaudy Tucson numbers?!

Not that I don't like O-Dawg... Embarassed

Is Hudson, Drew, Callaspo > Callaspo, Drew, Green? Probably. Considering leadership and experience definitely.

Oh well.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

I made a few assumptions on Byrnes, Batista & Estrada.

I think using Byrnes/Estrada to acquire more prospects would be a good move and I think Batista's lucky stats will warrant him more $$ than he deserves.

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:46 pm Post subject:

Hank · Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:51 pm Post subject:

The depressing thing there is that the totally unnecessary Green and Ortiz money equals one front-line pitcher. If ownership doesn't totally screw up two years ago, the scenario of two pitchers is much more doable.

To some extent, I hope ownership sort of steps up and says, our bad on that, and we are not going to count that against the payroll Josh has to work with. Not likely, but it would be the stand up thing to do.

I tend to think that the free-agent pitcher market is overpriced. They probably get more bang for the buck picking up a couple of free agent position players and then, don't kill me for saying it, trading a prospect or two for solid pitching that is not free agent eligible for a few years. I would not be surprised if the team goes in this direction--especially since it is not realistic to expect to win with four or five rookies on the field every day.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

I just don't see any impact pitchers available through trades that wouldn't cost the farm, literally. The one bright spot to our financial woes is that they will be less in 2008 and even less in 2009 <as Green & Ortiz's money slides off the hopper>. Also, I believe they did underspend this year by about 5MM or so, or at least I think I remember that being mentioned as we started the season.

We could get 2 solid pitchers if we floated a back-end loaded deal for the years when Green/Ortiz's salary are but a bad memory.