Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3040
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 5:56 pm Post subject: Comparables
Thought I'd post the Baseball Prospectus comparables D backs hitters. Here is how they explain their system
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Comparable Players
Comparable Players are the backbone of a player's PECOTA. Only the twenty best comparables are listed here, but as many as 100 players may be used in the generation of his forecast if they are sufficiently comparable.
PECOTA compares each player against a database of roughly 20,000 major league batter seasons since World War II. In addition, it also draws upon a database of roughly 15,000 translated minor league seasons (1997-2006) for players that spent most of their previous season in the minor leagues. (When minor league comparables are used, they appear in ALL CAPS). PECOTA considers four broad categories of attributes in determining a hitter's comparability:
1. Production metrics--such as batting average, isolated power, and unintentional walk rate for hitters, or strikeout rate and groundball rate for pitchers.
2. Usage metrics, including career length and plate appearances or innings pitched.
3. Phenotypic attributes, including handedness, height, weight, career length (for major leaguers), and minor league level (for prospects).
4. Fielding Position (for hitters) or starting/relief role (for pitchers). PECOTA doesn't require that a comparable hitter play the same defensive position; it is a factor that is evaluated along with many others, and assigned a relatively substantial weight. Consideration is also given to the 'similarity' between two positions; for example, a shortstop will be compared to a second baseman before he is compared to a left fielder. In most cases, the database is large enough to provide a meaningfully large set of appropriate comparables. When it isn't, the program is designed to 'cheat' by expanding its tolerance for dissimilar players until a reasonable sample size is reached.
Drew: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Ernie Banks, Wil Cordero
Quentin: Marcus Thames, Carmelo Martinez, Ben Johnson, Dwight Evans
Young: Jonny Gomes, Don Baylor, Cody Ross, Frank Robinson
Jackson: Carmelo Martinez, Kevin Young, Paul Konerko, Joe Foy
Montero: John Roskos, Mike Jacobs, Jed Morris, Juan Tejeda
Snyder: Marc Hill, Glenn Borgmann, Charles Johnson, Harry Chiti
Tracy: Pete Ward, Scott Cooper, Roy Howell, Todd Helton
Hudson: Tony Fernandez, Tom Herr, U L Washington, Len Randle
Byrnes: Glenallen Hill, Al Cowens, Mike Devereaux, Joe Carter
Callaspo: Luis Rodriguez, Orlando Hudson, Brent Abernathy, Tony Fernandez
Hairston: Brandon Berger, Chin-Feng Chen, Darren Burton, Marcus Thames
Upton: Ben Johnson, Brandon Wood, Kimani Newton, Michael Hall
Gonzalez: Chris Lubanski, Franklin Gutierrez, Brandon Moss, Laynce Nix
Reynolds:Ron Walker, Scott Hairston, David Kelton, Ryan Raburn
Barden: Mike Coolbaugh, J.J. Furmaniak, Willis Otanez, Luis Maza
Davanon: Billy North, Stan Javier, Delino Deshields, Russ Snyder
Clark: Walt Dropo, Mark Johnson, Deron Johnson, Dale Long
_________________
League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.
Last edited by shoewizard on Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:48 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3040
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:03 pm Post subject:
Here are some of the Starters
Webb: Mark Gubicza, Rick Reuschel, Roy Halladay, Charles Nagy
RJ:Roger Clemens, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Nolan Ryan
Livan: Pat Hentgen, Mike Torrez, Steve Trachsel, Kevin Appier
Davis: Chuck Finley, Rudy May, Brian Bohanon, Mike Krukow
Edgar: Alex Fernandez, Shaun Marcum, Mike Saipe, Justin Germano
Enrique: Frank Rodriguez, Ned Garver, Omar Olivares, Mike Bovee
Eveland: Jim Kaat, Les Cain, Jeremy Affeldt, Gerry Arrigo
Nippert: Rich Gale, Aaron Heilman, Sean Douglass, Chris Carpenter
Owings: Jin Cho, Adam Wainwright, Matt Bruback, Jason Johnson
Cruz: Wade Miller, John Tsitouris, Jose Santiago, Walt Masterson
MacLane: Patrick Misch, Mike Bacsik, Derrin Ebert, Paul Ahyat
_________________
League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3040
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:10 pm Post subject:
Well, I was trying to emphasize best potential upside based on the comps....I think we have a fair idea as to what RJ's upside is.
_________________
League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.
Strange... I was playing with comps tonight as well, and even thought about posting some of them here...
I think you need to bold Mike Jacobs. His production at C is something.
It's ironic that Hudson is Callaspo's 2nd best comp. Hudson took some time to blossom, so maybe it was a good idea to hang onto Hudson and give Callaspo time to develop.
Marcus Thames showing up on Quentin's and Hairston's lists... I think Pecota can't figure out what to do with Hairston...
Brandon Wood is an excellent comp for Upton. Except that Upton will striking out less and will play CF...
Pecota is really hating Cargo... methinks that's because of the atrocious BB/K ratio this year. He really needs to walk more in AA...
Hairston on Reynolds's list... isn't bad if Reynolds can play at 3b...
***
Rick Reuschel was an excellent pitcher. I hope Webb stays healthier than Roy...
RJ... well, it's not that difficult to find comps when your criteria are: a) over 40 years of age; b) hall of famer
Livan... is that Appier pre- or post- mo vaughn trade? i fear the answer
Davis... hopefully he won't get beaten up by a music video dancer
I think you really have to like the comps for Eveland AND Nippert...
Owings... Wainwright, huh? So does it mean Owings saves clinching game 5 of the 2007 World Series? Or is that the 2008 World Series?
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3040
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 6:47 pm Post subject:
Great commentary Lev.
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Strange... I was playing with comps tonight as well, and even thought about posting some of them here...
All the talk about Drew and Quentin's projections is what got me on this tangent.
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Pecota is really hating Cargo... methinks that's because of the atrocious BB/K ratio this year. He really needs to walk more in AA...
Thats what Dylan has been telling us all along.
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Livan... is that Appier pre- or post- mo vaughn trade? i fear the answer
I think you KNOW the answer.
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Davis... hopefully he won't get beaten up by a music video dancer
I was totally stoked to see Finley there. He was well above average from age 31-37, ERA+ ranging from 108-139 and averaging over 200 innings a year.
_________________
League average when you are paying league minimum is great value, League average when you are paying 10 million sucks.
Pecota is really hating Cargo... methinks that's because of the atrocious BB/K ratio this year. He really needs to walk more in AA...
Thats what Dylan has been telling us all along.
Well, I've been agreeing that Carlos needs to walk more. The difference is that I've always believed he can and he will walk more this year, while Dylan has been skeptical...
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Livan... is that Appier pre- or post- mo vaughn trade? i fear the answer
I think you KNOW the answer.
Livan for Phil Humber?
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Davis... hopefully he won't get beaten up by a music video dancer
I was totally stoked to see Finley there. He was well above average from age 31-37, ERA+ ranging from 108-139 and averaging over 200 innings a year.
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