Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3040
Location: In front of my computer
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:51 am Post subject:
I was looking at Baseball Prospectus today and they highligthed their team bullpen stat, WXRL, which is defined in the glossary as:
Quote:
Expected wins added over a replacement level pitcher, adjusted for level of opposing hitters. WXRL combines the individual adjustments for replacement level (WXR) and quality of the opposing lineup (WXL) to the basic WX calculation.
Code:
# YEAR TEAM LG WXRL
1. 2006 NYN NL 17.818
2. 2006 SDN NL 14.949
3. 2006 HOU NL 10.162
4. 2006 PIT NL 9.974
5. 2006 LAN NL 9.956
6. 2006 PHI NL 8.827
7. 2006 SLN NL 8.505
8. 2006 ARI NL 8.436
9. 2006 COL NL 5.944
10. 2006 CHN NL 5.685
11. 2006 WAS NL 5.092
12. 2006 CIN NL 4.989
13. 2006 SFN NL 4.297
14. 2006 MIL NL 3.472
15. 2006 FLO NL 2.273
16. 2006 ATL NL 1.243
Here are the individual player stats
Code:
NAME WXRL
1. Luis Vizcaino 2.173
2. Brandon Lyon 1.636
3. Jorge Julio 1.356
4. Brandon Medders 0.923
5. Jose Valverde 0.910
6. Tony Pena 0.889
7. Juan Cruz 0.531
8. Greg Aquino 0.531
9. Doug Slaten 0.380
10. Randy Choate 0.244
11. Mike Koplove 0.158
12. Casey Daigle 0.034
13. Enrique Gonzalez 0.021
14. Claudio Vargas 0.019
15. Kevin Jarvis 0.004
16. Miguel Batista 0.004
17. Brandon Webb 0.000
18. Dustin Nippert 0.000
19. Livan Hernandez 0.000
20. Orlando Hernandez 0.000
21. Russ Ortiz ARI 0.000
22. Edgar G Gonzalez -0.212
23. Jason Grimsley -0.263
24. Jeff Bajenaru -0.398
25. Terry Mulholland -0.506
Notes and analysis:
Obviously the starters who never relieved have zeroes. Boy, Mulholland and Grimsley were really bad ideas, and pretty big mistakes. Whoever had the most input in bringing those guys in, whether it was Josh himself, or he was swayed by someone else..........clearly these were the two worst personnell moves made in last years offseason. Proven Veterans and Loogy's........Blah!
The team lost it's best reliever in the Johnson trade, and this is probably why Julio was yanked off the trade block for the time being. If the bullpen is doing well, and some of the young relievers are stepping up and there are not too many injuries, of course he could still be moved before the trade deadline.
Last years bullpen was about average, or slightly above average. This makes sense, as many people perceived the bullpen to be either much better or much worse than it really was. Average bullpens are often inconsistent, having stretches of great pitching followed by lousy pitching. One of the big issues last year was the pen getting worn out early in the year, and ultimately suffering some serious regression mid season once the innings piled up. On the surface, when looking at innings, and consecutive appearances, etc, the pen did not look overworked. But actually watching the games and the season progress, it sure felt that it was, and we all saw the regression coming as early as April and May.
For 2007, the theory is that the starters will eat innings, (not donuts, hopefully) and that will leave less innings on the table. They better. While there are some good young arms, this is not a strong bullpen at all. The D Backs are definitely going to need over 1000 innings from the top 5 starters, and a "step up" performance by a couple of the young relievers. Medders needs to be even better, and Pena needs to be the real deal. Valverde needs to find some consistency and Julio needs to find the strike zone.
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 795
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posted: Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:14 am Post subject:
Cruz will be a nice addition to the 'pen.
I can't see the 5th starting job not going to Edgar.
If Slaten falters Eveland's there. And then there's Enrique, Owings, etc. etc. All of them can start as well if there's an injury to a SP (God forbid).
Pena really needs to step up, especially if Papa melts down again. Do you really want to count on Julio?
Long story short, maybe Julio is "expendable"? More prospects?
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