Diamondbacks Bullpen

Dangerfield · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 9:41 am Post subject: projected line-up

Projected batting order
1. 2B Orlando Hudson:
.287 BA, 15 HR, 67 RBI
2. SS Stephen Drew:
.316 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
3. 3B Chad Tracy:
.281 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI
4. LF Eric Byrnes:
.267 BA, 26 HR, 79 RBI
5. 1B Conor Jackson:
.291 BA, 15 HR, 79 RBI
6. RF Carlos Quentin:
.253 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI
7. CF Chris Young:
.243 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI
8. C Chris Snyder:
.277 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI

Steve doesn't usually pull stuff out of his ass.....I'm sure he talked with Melvin to get an idea what he was thinking before writing this. And of course Melvin will change his mind and his lineups numerous times.

My only comment is that there is plenty of data and a large enough sample size to know that Tracy should be dropped way down the order against lefties, and Byrnes should be dropped way down the order against righties.

For the record:

Tracy vs lefties

413 PA, .228/.282/.349 .631 OPS

Yeah.....he might get better against lefties, he's still young, and 413 PA over 3 seasons is not a tremendous sample size, but it's big enough to know there is a serious platoon split there, and until Chad starts to hit lefties better, it is a disservice to the team to bat him any higher than 6th against lefties.

Byrnes vs. Righties:

1551 PA .242/.304/.410 .714 OPS

Well, in this case, the sample size is plenty large enough to make the deterimination. Eric Byrnes does not belong any higher than 6th or 7th in the order against right handed pitching. This is not a cleanup hitter.

And for the record, he wasn't any better against righties last year, in his career year, either

431 PA .247/..287/.441 .728

Nope...still not a cleanup hitter, (and not a #2 hitter with that .287 OBP either)

Melvin needs to LEAD, and define the players roles clearly, and in the case of Byrnes and Tracy, until they are able to overcome their extreme platoon splits, they need to know that their roles are top play good defense and do the best they can to get on base when they don't have the platoon advantage.

ACK Exclamation

Shoe's hidden thread
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Dangerfield · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 10:34 am Post subject:

Byrnes
Drew
O'Dog
CoJack
CQ
Triple Crown
Snyder
Young

Byrnes, during spring training, I'm going to get him to focus on obp. His job is to walk and hit natural slg%. And run, and run.

Drew-His job is get on base, natural slg%, and run and run. Get Byrnes over to third.

O'dog, his job is to keep up with what he did last year. Frustrate pitchers, work them with two strikes.. 380 obp...Not worried about his slg% in the three hole, because of the slg guys before him and behind him. I don't want him running in front of CoJack and Cq.

CoJack-just do what he does

Cq-just do what he does...next he will be running when he wants as well, because pitchers will be concentrating on....

Chad T- Just do what he does...no admiring home runs....

Snyder- keep his same approach as last year, may be the break-out player

Young- hitting in front of the pitcher...He's here just to become Ricky Henderson...He'll be pitched around of course...take the walk, or homer. Now teams know your going to steal...Try and steal anyway, who cares if you get thrown out, its about becoming Ricky and the next dominating lead-off hitter ever.

I reserve the right to change the line-up tomorrow.
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levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1632

Scott Hairston should get extended playing time in LF over Byrnes. Period. At least Scott hits righties well.

And Byrnes should probably bat 2nd against lefties and 7th in the random occasional start against righties.

whatuwant · AAA Stud Joined: 30 Jan 2007 Posts: 71 Location: Phoenix

baseball prospectus did a study about lineups and which is more effective.
according to that study the lineup should look like this:

Cojack
Drew
Hudson
Tracy
Quentin
Snyder
Byrnes
Young

OBP at the top and SLUG in the middle: your highest OPS in the 2 hole because thats the spot that most clutch situations come up...not third according to them
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shoewizard · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 12:52 pm Post subject:

Well..if you go by BP lineup methodology, perhaps you should also go by BP's projections, which have Chris Young as the highest projected OPS guy on the team.

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 543

I'm not familar with the BP's study, but one of the reason others feel that a good OPS guy and especially a high OBP is not utilized to his fullest in the 3 spot is that the 3 spot comes up most often with 2 out, no one on, with two outs and leads off an inning leass frequently than other spots.

One "clutch" situation that most fans do not consider clutch is leading off an inning. Getting the first man on makes a huge difference in expected runs.

whatuwant · AAA Stud Joined: 30 Jan 2007 Posts: 71 Location: Phoenix

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1632

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

The FPSMVBOM projects the following:

Vs. RHP

DaVanon
O-Dawg
Drew
Q
Tracy
CJ
Montero
Young

Vs. LHP

Young
O-Dawg
Byrnes
Drew
Q
Tracy
CJ
Snyder

Of course there are always situational, hot bat and rest day issues at work as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see many different BOs in '07 and my model is subject to change.

Dangerfield · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 1:32 pm Post subject:

No doubting the guys (hairston)hitting ability. He can flat out rake....can't wait for spring training to start...now that said with Byrnes and young that pretty much seals the defense....
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whatuwant · AAA Stud Joined: 30 Jan 2007 Posts: 71 Location: Phoenix

Dangerfield · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 4:39 pm Post subject:

I'd send Montero back down, keep Hairston and Hammock, and see how things work things out.

my bench
clark
callaspo
hairston
hammock
dl-davanon

Montero would be up by his birthday.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

At this point, I would go with 11 pitchers and:

Callaspo
Clark
DaVanon
Hairston
Hammock
Montero

on the bench. I think that DaVanon will be ready by opening day.

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:34 pm Post subject:

Andy Green wasn't given a start until mid may, and I don't think he was given two starts in a row until August.

But I bet you think that was a pretty clever retort anyway. Wink

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

Prosopis · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: projected line-up

[quote="Dangerfield"]Projected batting order
1. 2B Orlando Hudson:
.287 BA, 15 HR, 67 RBI
2. SS Stephen Drew:
.316 BA, 5 HR, 23 RBI
3. 3B Chad Tracy:
.281 BA, 20 HR, 80 RBI
4. LF Eric Byrnes:
.267 BA, 26 HR, 79 RBI
5. 1B Conor Jackson:
.291 BA, 15 HR, 79 RBI
6. RF Carlos Quentin:
.253 BA, 9 HR, 32 RBI
7. CF Chris Young:
.243 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI
8. C Chris Snyder:
.277 BA, 6 HR, 32 RBI

Steve doesn't usually pull stuff out of his ass.....I'm sure he talked with Melvin to get an idea what he was thinking before writing this. And of course Melvin will change his mind and his lineups numerous times.

Where did this projected lineup come from?
Who is Steve?

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:55 pm Post subject:

Steve Gilbert....story on MLB.com site

Prosopis · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 5:56 pm Post subject:

Thanks

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1632

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1632

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

TAP · Posted: Sat Feb 10, 2007 10:59 pm Post subject:

Now that you mention his name, PCL Player of the Year Andy Green was never given a chance at the major league level either as BoMel preferred his trusted .236 hitting ProvenVeteran™ Damon Easley. Wasted talent relegated to Japan for lack of opportunity.