Diamondbacks Bullpen

[shoewizard]

OK...for RJ, instead of just putting up a poll that says he had a 5.00 era, choose the over/under, I am making this poll about the bet that Lev and I had.

Shoe and Levski's bet:

If RJ pitches for the D backs and has an ERA under 3.75 over a minimum of 150 innings, I have to make "Levski is my daddy" my signature for the entire offseason after the 2007 season.

If RJ has an ERA over 3.75, OR fails to pitch 150 innings...then he has to use the signature "Shoe is my Daddy" for the next off season.


SO for lev to win, RJ must achieve both marks, sub 3.75 ERA AND 150+ innings....if RJ fails on either count, Shoe wins the bet.

[moviegeekjn]

[Dangerfield]

too be fair, it should 150 and era of 4.5. How about 12-6 4.5 era 140 ip, 1.3 whip...He'll go at least 6, in all his starts.


this team is going to score a lot of runs this year. Especially during the Unit starts, due to him not facing Peavy, Schmidt, or a pitcher geeking up to go head to head against him.

Now at the same time, if the team is rolling he's healthy, sub 3.75 wouldn't be that big a deal.

The biggest risk is the health issue of course, and whether these guys want to be winners. Unit's desire and intensity is still there.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

[dirtygary]

Lev, you're retarded. You got bullied into that ring because of the ghosts of an old fighter...

I'd personally be shocked if RJ is under a 4.2, and he MIGHT get to 150 IP's, but I seriously doubt that, too.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

[shoewizard]

Rodney....don't be difficult....just vote on the bet as we made it

Seriously though.....4.50 ERA isn't worth all that much at 140-150 innings, although it's worth a good deal once you get up around 200 innings.

Really, the bet was set up this way as a proxy for VORP, because most people are not familiar with VORP, (Value over replacement pitcher)

For example, Webb last year had 68.9 VORP which was third highest in the majors behind Santana and Oswalt.

Miguel Batista with a 4.58 ERA and 206 IP had 25.2 VORP

Claudio Vargas with a 4.83 ERA and 167 IP had 13.4 VORP

Now lets put that in perspective. 85 pitchers threw 150 innings last year.

Webb ranked 3rd, Batista ranked 50th, and Vargas ranked 71st

The "mean" was right about David Bush, in 43rd place with 30.9 VORP
(4.41 ERA in 210 IP)

If the D backs get something like a Brad Radke type season, 162 IP, 4.33 ERA for Minn, that gave Radke 23.3 VORP, which ranked 52nd out of 85 in the majors last year.

I think the D backs need much more than that in return for 4 players and 24 million.

[Counsell]

Heck, it's not a terrible bet for Shoewizard if the only component of the bet was 150 innings. I'd say there's about a 25% chance of Johnson not reaching that.

But the REAL killer for Levski is this: Johnson is going to improved from a 5.00 E.R.A. in a lefty pitcher's paradise to 3.75 E.R.A. in a launching pad at the age of (almost) 44? And the only factor in his favor is that his back surgery will hopefully help him?

[levski]

[dirtygary]

Sorry for the name-calling. I really meant that I thought the bet was insane. Wouldn't have ever taken it, but since you're defending your position...

I'd like to get in on the action, too.

You want a whole string of "Levski is my daddy"'s all next off-season?

[levski]

[qudjy1]

I voted for shoe. BUT. I am more optimistic than shoe is: I still think RJ will end up with about 175-185 innings, but i am thinkning that 3.75 ERA is too optimistic, i think right around 4..

[dirtygary]

Names aside, why can't you group the RJ acquisition with the other acquisitions? We gave up talent and assumed payroll. If anything, the Davis and Hernandez acquisitions should be more desired, seeing how they're healthier, younger, and cheaper.

All I'm saying is it's a hell of a gamble on a 43/44 yr old with knee and back problems, a decreasing fastball, and a launching-pad park.

Could wind up being the perfect storm that not even RJ can make it through.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

[Dangerfield]

I vote for Levski. Look, my gig, we gave up a lot. Now, that said, Eveland has a huge ceiling and ass. His upside is as high as any prospect out there. Randy is going to be a big part of this organization, EVeland is going to learn from Randy.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

[B. O. N. D.]

I voted for Levski because that's a vote for the team.

Plus, he's "always" right.
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Oops in the 2 hole!

[matt]

I'm with Levski. He averaged 6.2IP/GS in 2006 and 6.6IP/GS in 2005. Keeping that in mind, he will need 22-24 starts to reach 150 IP. I think that is doable. As said before, they wouldn't be getting him if they thought he couldn't have a sub 3.75 ERA.

[shoewizard]

[B. O. N. D.]

No sympathy after sneaking in and grabbing that 1000th post on the RJ thread.

Plus, I had "always" in quotes.
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Oops in the 2 hole!

[stu]

Some place in the 3.75 range to 4.00 range is where I would put the over/under if a condition was that the bet was off if RJ did not pitch 150 innings so I think Shoe got the better of the bet.

Nonetheless, I voted for Lev because who wants to be a bean counter when it comes to baseball. Like the man said, you don't pick your favorite players like you pick your mutual funds.

[shoewizard]

There are very few bets I would be happier to lose, I think everyone knows that.

[dirtygary]

We all want Levski to win. That'd be great. It just ain't happening.
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The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

[Dan]

Decisions, decisions, decisions.

I want Lev to win because it would better for the Diamondbacks team.

But I think Shoe will win the bet because Unit is an old man with bad knees and a repaired back.

I voted for Shoe because I think it is a more pragmatic view of the 2007 Randy Johnson, although we dream of the 2001 Big Unit.

The bigger question, will the loser of bet follow through?

[stu]

The bigger question, will the loser of bet follow through?

Knowing these guys, I'll take the yes on this one every day of the week. No doubt at all.

[shoewizard]

[moviegeekjn]

[Dylan]

[shoewizard]

LOL....in reality, probably a bit of both.