Diamondbacks Bullpen

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1633

Got involved in a discussion on Drew over on Sickels's site:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2007/2/2/182939/5868

Thought I'd bring it here and start a threat to kill some time...

Questions...

How good is Drew? How good can he be? Where would you rank him on the list of under-25 years of age Dbacks? Do you agree with Goldstein's list?

And, fwiw...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=255

Projekt · AAA Stud Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 67

I think all of our prospects will develop well, but there will be one or two who have a breakout year. Chances are that Drew is one of these players is quite high. He got to play about half a season last year, and seemed to figure out the pitching very easily. His D seemed much better than everyone was saying when he was coming up the system.

And if he is like his brother, only healthy, he will be one HECK of a player...

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:07 pm Post subject:

My projections for Stephen Drew were not as good as alot of people. I think expecting him to be able to achieve an extrapolated batting line over 600 plate appearance that holds up to last year is unrealistic.

The man had a .396 BABIP last year and just 14 walks, no HBP, against 50 K's in 229 Plate appearances.

Even if he puts a higher percentage of balls in play, as we all expect him to, it is completely unrealistic to expect anything like a .396 BABIP going forward. Even as a high line drive percentage hitter, you can't really forecast anything more than 10 or 20 points above league average. I actually forecasted a .325 BABIP for him next year, which is roughly 20+ points above league average.

And I project him with improved contact rates as well.

2006 K Rate 4.52 PA per K, vs. 2007 Projected 5.18 PA per K

2006 Walk/HBP rate 16.14 PA per walk/HBP, vs 2007 projected 13.98

So I have him striking out less, walking and getting hit by pitches more, AND having a BABIP 20 points over league average, and yet he still only came out to a .274 batting average.

To keep his BA over .300, he would either have to maintain a BABIP well over .350, or see a much more dramatic improvement in K and walk rates then I am forecasting.

It could happen, but there is no reasonable, objective justification to put up such a projection.

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

Drew is a real wolf.

David B

shoewizard · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:33 pm Post subject:

I have no trouble believing that. Braun really looked great to me in the fall league.....quick powerful swing....good strike zone control and discipline, and he really has a "swagger" about him. He's not a real big guy....but you definitely sense a different presence about him. Ball comes off his bat FAST too.

Don't know about his glove, looked ok to me, but every scouting report says his glove is suspect. He may end up in the outfield.....but I would stick with him at 3rd as long as possible to make sure before I moved him.

Zephon · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 2:39 pm Post subject:

Major break out canidates next year: Connor Jackson, Chris Young, Stephen Drew

Cojack having a breakout is a big hunch of mine. I'm expecting him to have a killer year. The guy has incredible eye, and damned good plate discipline. He hits tons of doubles, and flashed a little homer power. .300+ BA, 15hr, 40 doubles. .400 Obp percentage. I say he can easily best those numbers.

Chris Young: Potential Rookie of the year canidate. Every year he improves some aspect of his game, all while flashing tremendous power, speed, and defense. His batting average and plate discipline have improved every year.

Stephen Drew. Definately an Underrated player in a lot of circles. Not even sure where to start. He's got good speed, his D is impressive. this guy can do it all.

Carlos Quentin: The most underated of the group IMHO. That year that Green stole from him really hurt his reputation. Power, Good plate Discipline, Great D, cannon of an arm, and the freakish ability to get hit by pitch.

All four of these guys should hit at least 15 HRs. All have the potential to hit twenty, and Young, Quentin, and Cojack could surprise and hit thirty.

There's nothing to not like about our offense. Our core lineup has huge breakout potential.
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-Zephon

stu · Everyday Player Joined: 12 Aug 2006 Posts: 545

Kevin Goldstein: Like his brother, only healthy and at shortstop -- in others words, WOWSA.

This is underrated?

And yes that question is rhetorical.

The above view matches what I think.

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1633

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

levski · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1633

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

FPSMVSSEM projects Wolf with 315/370/530 for '07.

With our pitching staff, O-Dawg and Wolf, we are also going to make a run at the most double plays in the bigs.

Guitar Salad · Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2007 10:40 pm Post subject:

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1132

That was a nickname Drew was given last year.

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

Guitar Salad · Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2007 11:01 am Post subject:

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1303

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2007 12:09 pm Post subject:

Someone should get the name to Gracie before he comes up with something dumb. I can just hear him calling the infield the "Drew Crew" or some such. Rolling Eyes

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Oops in the 2 hole!

Projekt · AAA Stud Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 67

Anyone else see this:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/8/10/152311/275

Guitar Salad · Posted: Sun Feb 04, 2007 12:25 pm Post subject:

I tried to get SD Drew started as a name there for a bit.
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Ha ha! Charade you are...