Diamondbacks Bullpen

[shoewizard]

Levski and I have been having numerous phone conversations, (he has not be able to post much this week), and we have both come to the conclusion that there are some very good reasons NOT to trade Eric Byrnes. Thats right, we are about to pull a 180 on your guys....LOL

1.) It has been reported that Davanon probably won't be ready to play games at the beginning of spring training. If that holds true, than he probably won't be ready for opening day. In fact, his injury was always more serious than first thought....and from looking at his career, it's clear that he cannot be depended on for too many games or at bats. Although I think he is a better player than rgndvo will give him credit for, , (I like davanons OBP ALOT), fact is we just don't know when or how much he can play.

2.) In lieu of Davanon's questionable availabiltiy, clearly Brynes is needed on this team for his ability to play all 3 outfield positions and play them at arguably an above average level on defense.

So numbers and projections aside, this is probably the most solid reason for keeping Byrnes on the Roster.

As far as the Byrnes vs. Hairston discussion, while Hairston can and should be projected to outhit Byrnes by a good 50 OPS points, Byrnes will make up most of that difference with his advantage in defense and baserunning. Of course, as oft pointed out, the downside to playing Byrnes over Hairston is that

A.) It wastes or diminishes Hairstons potential and upside, and future trade value.

B.) Even if the overall 2007 value comes out equal between these two, Byrnes will cost anywhere from 4-4.5 million more.

However...........

With the Davanon situation the way it is now, Hairston can be on the opening day roster, and get a fair amount of at bats as the 4th outfielder. Obviously he can't play CF or RF, but Byrnes can. Hairston can get a start every 3 or 4 games, plus plenty of PH at bats.

It will drive us crazy. We will see Chris Young benched more than we like, as Melvin will slide Byrnes over to CF and sit Young as often as he will just stick Hairston in for Byrnes straight up. But this will be the price to maintain OF depth and get Hairston some at bats.

If Hairston manages to hit his way into more at bats before Davanon is ready to come back, Josh Byrnes will have his work cut out for him to figure out what to do at that point, and from what we know of Josh, he probably has a very concrete plan that I am not taking into account here. Hey, speculation can only get me so far.


But the long and short of it is, we need Byrnes for 2007, and I've changed my mind about whether or not he should be traded at this time........they should keep him.......unless of course a sweetheart deal comes along that Josh can't refuse. The flip side of the flexibility angle is that if Davanon looks good over the second half of spring and is ready for opening day, there is still the chance of a late spring trade of Byrnes to some team desperate for a Centerfielder.

I believe levski will approve of most of this post, but I eagerly await his additional thoughts and input.

[EvilJuan]

Shoewizard deftly pulls the rug out from under the feet of Marcus Portius Cato...

...but I don't see any holes in his argument.

Unfortunately, I agree that Melvin will pull Young for Byrnes any time that Hairston goes into LF... Yes, it's going to be a frustrating course of events if DaVanon doesn't make it back... So...

Get well soon, Jeff!
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Is It Next Season Yet?

[Otacon]

Less playing time for Young and more 1-pitch at-bats from Byrnes? Fine!
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[tmar]

Wasn't Hammock able to play CF? Couldn't Callaspo train on that position.

Am I off by thinking a quick, defensively sound player could adapt to CF and give reasonable enough Defense?

Personally I'd rather waste a temporary roster spot on that bust we got from the Brewers <Krynzel> than go into the season with Byrnes. Not because he'd be better than Byrnes, but because Melvin will take away valuable AB's from the rookies in order to get his little "pig pen" some PT.

[Aaron]

Personally, I think Byrnes is the perfect 4th OF. My main desire to see him off the roster stems from:

1) wanting to see Hairston given a real opportunity and
2) possibly picking up a nice SWAG in return

I beleive with him on the roster Melvin will neglect Hairston. Maybe I need to get over Hairston already, but I've been waiting on him so long I just can't.

As for Byrnes' trade value, I beleive his highest value will be midseason, not now. At that time there will be a few injuries around the league and people will be inquiring about his availability. It happened last season and with another solid season his value will be even higher. Assuming Hairston hits when given the opportunity and Davanon is eventually healthy, Byrnes will be a nice player to dangle if we have a need down the stretch.

[levski]

[stu]

I would be more sanguine about this with a different manager. You know Byrnes is going to get 600+ pa's if he is around. These are going to come from Hairston and Young. I'd rather have Krynzel sitting on the bench than Brynes getting ab's at the expense of Young and even more so if we could get something for Byrnes. Another option would be a cheap FA. there are usually a number of AAAA type outfielders around--some like Victorino who we talked about 3 or so years ago who can become regulars with some PT.

OTOH, as I've said, Byrnes is a fail safe if Young needs more minor league time. This is especially true if Davanon is injured. For a team that looks like it wants to contend this year, keeping EB makes some sense. I just think we going middle of the road of trying to compete prematurely and we won't get the championships we hope for 2-3 from now.

[matt]

It is definitely the safe move to make. Whatever, as long as Hairston doesn't rot on the bench I'm cool with it. The money really isn't that much of a factor and if he only costs Young and Q about a 100 ABs its not the end of the world.

[Aaron]

[levski]

Clearly, the onus here is on Scott Hairston to show up in spring training and 1) outhit Eric Byrnes fair and square, and 2) demonstrate he can play good enough defense in LF to make Byrnes dispensable.

There should still be some trade market for Byrnes the centerfielder even in March, if Hairston outhits and outplays him, and DaVanon is healthy. Given the fact that Hairston has missed time in both of the last two seasons with injuries (flukey injuries, granted, but some people have the knack for them?), I'd want to see him fully healthy and determined in spring training.

[Dangerfield]

All you guys are sentenced to wearing Sedona Red, Captain Klutz outfits with Byrnes number on it.

I want to see Hairston succeed too, but man after watching suck crappy left field the past couple of years, it'll be a nice change to see some fielding. Who knows, maybe with Young, Hairston can specialize covering the line/corners. No doubting his bat, I don't think anyway.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

[stu]

Just about every defensive metric has Gonzo as an above lf. Except for his arm (and most teams did not take advantage of it), I thought he was fine from my lf bleacher seats.

[Dangerfield]

[shoewizard]

[qudjy1]

I agree with some of the posts above that EB would be great as a 4th OFer, but at this point, he has become too expensive for that role. (and We also all know that he wont realistically be used in that manner anyway..)

At the end of the day, in order to justify the kind of money he is going to get in this market, he will have to play CF for someone - as he just wont produce enough to play a corner position. This is really the problem for him in AZ, as he has replacements who will make 1/10th of his salary, and will probably out produce him. (Young, Hairston, CarGO)

I do agree that having him on the roster will help AZ compete in 07 - as he will help spell guys, and isnt a BAD player... But the point has always been, to get something for him while we can - and to "sell high".

I still say trade him to the cubs... hehe..

[Counsell]

I totally agree with Stu's first post. Well put!

I'm wondering if BoMel has paid $ under the table to Shoe and Levski. :)

Yes, it's the SAFE thing to do, but at what cost? ANSWER: Hairston's development as a D-Back. If they don't trade Byrnes, given BoMel's tendencies, Hairston is a goner - it's just a matter of time.

[Zephon]

The whole caveat in all of this is that Byrnes just doesn't have the bat to be the everyday left fielder, and we have plenty of guys that should be able to match his production or just flat out hit him for a much cheaper price tag. And he's making too much money to be used as a 4th outfielder exclusively. And of course, I don't think anyone trusts BoMel with any kind of "proven veteran".

Davanon probably won't be ready by opening day, so yes, this does leave a spot for Hairston. The problem, as I see it, is that Hairston will have to absolutely rake for him to take Byrnes job. But he's just not going to get enough playing time for that to happen.

With Cgon ready by next year, and Byrnes starting in left this year, Hairston looks to be completely Fed in the A. It's such a waste of a valuable player. He's got absolutely no trade value at this point, and it looks like there's no way he's going to get a legit shot at getting any playing time, barring a trade/injury.
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-Zephon

[matt]

[stu]

Dewan has Gonzo at a +13 for 2004-2006. Since defensive stats vary so much more than one year is necesssary as admitted even for those who give credence to them. Gonzo's rank is the 6th best in baseball.

For 2006 FRAA is 1 and FRAP is 13. Those are the only ones I can find easily.

[levski]

for what it's worth, left field at chase/bob is one of the top 10 easiest outfield spots in ANY ball park in the majors to play.

in other words, you don't have to be an amazing athlete to look pretty good (and be pretty effective) playing LF at chase.

[kris]

Shoe, you made good argument about why we should keep byrnes.
But i would like to trade him. I agree with qudjy1's post earlier

Here is the reason why

1. Right now we cannot trade Hairston, because his trade value is low. Every time, he came up to big leagues, he found a way to injure himself.
With Byrnes in the team, Hairston would seldom get his chances and hence his value might not increase.

2. At the end of season EB is free agent. I dont see D-backs giving a multi year deal to EB with Carlos Gonzalez, getting ready by mid of 2008.
If EB is traded now, Hairston will get chance to prove himself and thus increase his value. By the time carlos Gonzalez is ready, we can trade him for a decent return.

3. If we trade EB now, we will atleast get something in return. CUBS seems to be looking for Center Fielder. Package EB with Julio and get some pitching prospect(s) in return. To replace Julio, we have several young arms (edgar, enrique, owens, dustin, dana), so no problems there.

4. As for Davanon not being ready by Season Opener, we do have Dave Krynzel, whom D-backs got from Brewers. In late 1-run situations, Bo Mel can use him over hairston for defensive replacement. We dont need a $5M guy for that.

5. If Gonzo could play LF, then hairston can definitely play. Hairstons defense should not be that of big deal. Gonzo was playing with limited arm range the whole season. Shoe and Levski are making a big deal out of Hairston's Defense.

[matt]

Just because Byrnes starts the year with the team it doesn't mean he will finish the year with them. A major part of the logic is that DaVannon will NOT be ready at the start of the year. Therefore, unless we get a free agent, there aren't any reliable options for a backup that can play CF and RF. DaVannon not being ready to start the season changes everything.

[Aaron]

FWIW, Pecota has both Hairston and Davanon at a .273 EqA and Byrnes at .267.

I like Hairston to outperform that, but if that were truly their offensive output than it seems Byrnes' defense would easily make up the difference (as Shoe and Levski postulate).

And there's obviously something to his defensive problems. There are very few players that I can think of that have been as hyped, lived up to the hype hitting-wise in the minors, and had so little major league PT by the time they were 27. I agree with Levski, the onus is on him to perform. He more than anyone is the player to watch in Spring Training. Right or wrong, it will probably make or break his season, PT-wise.

[shoewizard]

[stu]

The 3 year is 2004, 2005 and 2006. Not 2003. I suppose Gonzo could have been a great defender in 2004 and 2005 and then all of a sudden became terrible in 2006. I missed it though.