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shoewizard
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 Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:01 pm Post subject: Drew's Defense |
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In the interest of balance and objectivity:
Drews Zone Rating is .784, which if he qualified at SS would be DEAD LAST in the national league, even behind Felipe Lopez. Counsell's is .852
Drew's Fielding percentage is .973, which would rank middle of the pack. Counsells is .979
Drew's Range Factor is 4.71, Counsells is 5.21
Drews "Rate" (BP) is 107 and FRAA +2
Counsells "rate" is 119 and FRAA +13
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:04 pm Post subject: |
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| FWIW, I think almost all of Drew's misplays have been on throws. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:06 pm Post subject: |
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I am sure that of his 4 errors, 2 of them were NOT throws.
One was the ball that kicked away on the stolen base attempt by Taveras, that Hudson failed to backup and Taveras went to 3rd.
Another was a straight forward "muff" on a fieldable grounder.
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Oden
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Location: Gilbert, AZ
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:07 pm Post subject: |
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| ZR and RF are majorly flawed stats. I hate every defensive metric, if nobody can tell. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:10 pm Post subject: |
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I know...but we refer to them when they support our arguements about a player we like being better.
I happened to be looking at them, and would feel like I was being less than honest if I didn't post them.
"My Eyes" tell me he is doing a good job. But if his Zone Rating is so poor, trust me, Dial and MGL's metrics would not show him favorably either.
If ALL of the metrics show him as average or subpar...then it would cause me to be a little less fanboyish and a little more objective in how I watch him in the field. Rose colored glasses MAY be distorting my view.
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EvilJuan
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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How would Drew's metrics change if the error on the throw that Hudson didn't back up wasn't charged?
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:15 pm Post subject: |
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other than fielding percentage...not much
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:18 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
I am sure that of his 4 errors, 2 of them were NOT throws.
One was the ball that kicked away on the stolen base attempt by Taveras, that Hudson failed to backup and Taveras went to 3rd.
Another was a straight forward "muff" on a fieldable grounder. |
You are correct on both of his non-throwing errors. I thought he had been charged with more than four, though - should've checked to be sure.
I'll have to pay more attention to his range from now on. My gut wants to say he's better to his right, but that could be just the result of a couple highlight-type plays.
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qudjy1
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:36 pm Post subject: |
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| Those zone ratings need huge samples to even be considered - even by its proponents.. drew hasnt had that.. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 3:55 pm Post subject: |
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I agree and understand....
but......at the same time........it's ok to notice it and point it out and say....
"Lets keep an eye on this"
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Catharsis
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:38 pm Post subject: |
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Yeah, using that stuff for Drew right now is like comparing the best hitters in baseball after one week's worth of at bats.
But I do have to take exception to:
| Quote: |
| but we refer to them when they support our arguements about a player we like being better. |
Gee, I wonder who you could be supporting against... 
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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Mike....I know this will come as a major disapointment for you, being you are the designated Gonzo Crusader for the board...(hey, everyone has a role, right?)......but I was not referring to everyones favorite hissy fit thrower..... .....(sorry again...could not resist)
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Catharsis
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Mike....I know this will come as a major disapointment for you, being you are the designated Gonzo Crusader for the board...(hey, everyone has a role, right?)......but I was not referring to everyones favorite hissy fit thrower..... .....(sorry again...could not resist) |
No, I was just commenting that you only refer to ZR and RF, etc. when you are trying to either credit or discredit another player. I know you weren't doing that now to Gonzo.
But while we're on ZR and RF, today Giles was shifted to way right center field late in the game. He barely got to a fly ball hit to RF. If he had missed it, wouldn't that have gone against his ZR and RF? As I understand it, it does. So often players are shifting based on the situation and players get hits to other way. A player shouldn't be punished statistically because they were told to set up defensive camp somewhere else.
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levski
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:22 pm Post subject: |
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stephen drew is so dreamy...
and since the pods punk'd us today, i'll post this:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/y2004/tracker_round_1_1.html
matt bush... bwahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
the pods passed on these major leaguers, in order of draft:
justin verlander
jeremy sowers
jered weaver
bill bray
stephen drew
taylor tankersley
not to mention the numerous minor leaguers who are better than bush.
suck it, padres. you sick high school boys loving pervs. |
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dirtygary
Everyday Player
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 903
Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| "My Eyes" tell me he is doing a good job. But if his Zone Rating is so poor, trust me, Dial and MGL's metrics would not show him favorably either. |
I'm surprised that his ratings are so poor. My eyes have been telling me that he's been solid in the field, but that he's a had a couple misplays, that everybody not named Omar Vizquel has.
Also, quite a few plays stand out where he has displayed exceptional range and arm. How does he compare to Reyes on the Mets (bat and glove)? I think those two will be the future of the NL at SS.
Either way, props for providing data that point out deficiencies.
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jethawker
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 10:18 pm Post subject: |
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First of all, in the interest of full disclosure, I know as much about FRAAs and Zone Ratings as I do about the top left-hand portion of my back.
However, does Drew deserve any slack for his inexperience? By inexperience I mean learning to play with new teammates and seeing different baseball fields throughout the League for the first time. I'm not sure we can compare his statistics with players who've been in the Majors longer and seen all the ballparks.
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TAP
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Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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| jethawker wrote: |
First of all, in the interest of full disclosure, I know as much about FRAAs and Zone Ratings as I do about the top left-hand portion of my back.
However, does Drew deserve any slack for his inexperience? By inexperience I mean learning to play with new teammates and seeing different baseball fields throughout the League for the first time. I'm not sure we can compare his statistics with players who've been in the Majors longer and seen all the ballparks.
jethawker |
That's the small sample size that qudjy1 mentioned in an earlier post. 
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Robert S.
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 10:53 pm Post subject: |
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I'm certainly willing to give him a break for playing between two complete dingbats. Still, defensive numbers aren't going to become statistically reliable for another two or three years, but we'll probably have a pretty decent idea about Drew by this time next year. I'd say it's obvious he has the talent to be a very, very good shortstop; we don't know if he has the concentration and stamina to translate that into performance over the course of a season, though.
To wit: How many people would have said that Tracy would be a bigger defensive liability than Jackson back in March, April or May? |
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stu
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Posts: 560
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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Zone ratings have Bonds the 4th best lf in baseball and Gozno the 9th. They have Byrnes as the 4th best cf. So if we are going to wring our hands over Drew because of these numbers, we should rejoice in our two superior outfielders.
Usual caveat, I am with Oden that these numbers don't have much meaning. |
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B. O. N. D.
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Location: Tucson, AZ until 3/6... then back to San Francisco
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:13 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
Zone ratings have Bonds the 4th best lf in baseball and Gozno the 9th. They have Byrnes as the 4th best cf. So if we are going to wring our hands over Drew because of these numbers, we should rejoice in our two superior outfielders.
Usual caveat, I am with Oden that these numbers don't have much meaning. |
And to all a goodnight... 
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| So if we are going to wring our hands over Drew because of these numbers....... |
Who is wringing their hands?
Seriously Stu....I ask you to go back, and read every post I made in this thread, and than try to re-characterize the tone and intent of me mentioning this. Seriously...re read my posts. I don't think I could have possibly been any more even handed or "non reactionary" in the way I presented information that I happen to come across.
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Catharsis
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| Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:44 am Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
Zone ratings have Bonds the 4th best lf in baseball and Gozno the 9th. They have Byrnes as the 4th best cf. So if we are going to wring our hands over Drew because of these numbers, we should rejoice in our two superior outfielders.
Usual caveat, I am with Oden that these numbers don't have much meaning. |
And this further makes my claim that Gonzo should receive a $20 million extension for next season.
Crusader to the rescue!
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Dylan
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 235
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| Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:24 am Post subject: |
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1) A Defensive Inn is roughly equivalent to 2.5 ABs So Drew is a little over 100 ABs defensively.
2) Counsell is a very good defensive SS, so Drew's chances of coming out favorably over time aren't the highest.
3) The difference in Drew's offense to Counsell's offense more than makes up for any defensive lag Drew might have. This is the reason more teams in MLB are sacrificing defense up the middle for that extra offense. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:55 am Post subject: |
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| Dylan wrote: |
| 1) A Defensive Inn is roughly equivalent to 2.5 ABs So Drew is a little over 100 ABs defensively. |
Excellent point about sample size. And if Drew were hitting very poorly in his first 100 plate appearances....of course we would all be mentioning it, with sample size caveats...of course. I assumed that the audience here knows by now to apply sample size caveats to ALL stat related posts.
| Quote: |
| 2) Counsell is a very good defensive SS, so Drew's chances of coming out favorably over time aren't the highest. |
This is also one of the things I am trying to point out.
| Quote: |
| 3) The difference in Drew's offense to Counsell's offense more than makes up for any defensive lag Drew might have. This is the reason more teams in MLB are sacrificing defense up the middle for that extra offense. |
Hopefully, but what are the differences in Drew's offense? That needs to be quantified to establish this point. Do the sample size caveats apply to Drews offense as well?
While his batting avg is down to a more human .315, his BABIP is still a stratospheric .405
He has just 8 walks and 32 k'sin 132 plate appearances. My guess is that while his slugging percentage will ALWAYS be superior to Counsell's, it will not surprise me in the least when his BA and OBP drop below Counsells.
Long term...of Course Drew's potential future and upside are far better than just about any SS prospect. And NOBODY here has been a bigger Drew fanboy than me. But as the sample size slowly grows.....it's time to start taking an objective viewpoint.
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Dylan
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| Posted: Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:08 am Post subject: |
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Well I'd reply with: Currently Drews offense and defense, whether true ability or not, is more valuable than Counsell would be expected to produce given his level of offense and defense. So in the now, I'd take Drew.
Obviously in the future, Drew's level of offense is likely to regress down, but his defense will likely improve. To show the volitility of Drew's ZR right now, it went up from .784 to .791 after Sundays game: 3 Asst and 1 DP started. |
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