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| With the addition of Young in center, Quentin in right, and RJ and Davis on the mound, will Arizona's ERA+ improve further in 2007? |
| AZ's ERA+ improves in 2007 |
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87% |
[ 27 ] |
| AZ's ERA+ decreases in 2007 |
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12% |
[ 4 ] |
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| Total Votes : 31 |
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TAP
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 Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:35 pm Post subject: AZ ERA+ ...up or down in 2007? |
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| Peter Gammons today wrote: |
| The Diamondbacks are one of the most fascinating teams in the game and, by adding Johnson, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis in with Brandon Webb, they have a veteran presence for their young pitchers and position players. There was consternation in the Valley when Gonzalez and Shawn Green were let go, but their outfield defense changed dramatically. With Chris Young in center, Carlos Quentin in right and the Eric Byrnes/Jeff Davanon combination in left, the balls stopped going up the gaps in September; Arizona's pitching had the lowest opposing OPS in that month in the majors. |
Cy Young winner Brandon Webb boasted a 154 ERA+ throughout the 2006 season. In spite of the newest Giant Russ Ortiz contributing a 63 ERA+ with AZ in 2006, the Diamondbacks pitching staff still earned the 4th best ERA+ in the NL, behind only:
Houston 111 ERA+
San Diego 109 ERA+
Los Angeles 108 ERA+
Arizona 106 ERA+
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matt
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:43 pm Post subject: |
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| Just about everyone reading this will already know this but ERA+ is normalized and therefore, higher is better. If you think the pitching will be worse, you think it will go down. |
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matt
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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It's hard to believe that our pitching was as good as it was last season. I think it will improve.
Webb = same or equal
Johnson > Batista
Although Livan will not be as good as he was in a DBack uni, he will be better or equal to the combination of him and the guy he replaced. (I know the time frames don't match up but would this be Dookie?)
Davis >> Vargas
Same for 5th spot.
Overall the pen will be about the same. |
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B. O. N. D.
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 3:46 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| the balls stopped going up the gaps in September; Arizona's pitching had the lowest opposing OPS in that month in the majors. |
Wow... I can't wait for 2007. A lot of people are going to be eating a lot of crow regarding this team, the youngin's, and the Big Unit.
Josh Byrnes is a godsend. Now I hope Rizzo's replacement (and Josh) can keep the farm going strong.
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McCray
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:02 pm Post subject: |
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matt, i agree with your analysis of the rotation, but i think it will have a trickle down effect on the pen as well. i wouldn't be surprised to see the pen as a whole improve significantly. it won't be the best in baseball or anything, but it'll be leaps and bounds better than the 2006 crap factory.
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EvilJuan
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:36 pm Post subject: |
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| McCray wrote: |
| i wouldn't be surprised to see the pen as a whole improve significantly. it won't be the best in baseball or anything, but it'll be leaps and bounds better than the 2006 crap factory. |
If -- yes, the infamous conditional "IF" -- the Webb/Johnson/Hernandez/Davis rotation does, in fact, pitch 800+ innings, then, yes, I think the BP will also show an improvement.
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Is It Next Season Yet? 
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McCray
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 4:43 pm Post subject: |
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even if webb/tbu/davis/hernandez don't pitch 200 apiece, it's still a HUGE improvements on innings pitched from webb/crap/more crap/steaming crap.
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tmar
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 7:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Miggy's results last year were pretty good <but he sure got ugly getting there>. |
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levski
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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Best team ERA+ and OPS+ in AZ's history (thankfully, it's only a few years)
Year; ERA+; OPS+; link
2003; 122; 91; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2003.shtml
2001; 118; 103; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2001.shtml
1999; 117; 112; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/1999.shtml
2002; 112; 102; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2002.shtml
2000; 107; 95; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2000.shtml
2006; 106; 93; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2006.shtml
1998; 93; 89; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/1998.shtml
2005; 90; 99; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2005.shtml
2004; 89; 84; http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/ARI/2004.shtml
The 2003 season was AZ's best pitching year; ironically, instead of holding onto one of three best pitchers the team had (Schilling), Colangelo went for bust (literally) and the result was the horrendous 2004 season.
Also, 1999 had the best combination of offense and pitching; not surprisingly, that team won 100 games. The offense in 2001 wasn't that good, incidentally, but it did hit just enough to win the NL west by 2 games and make it all the way.
And we can all see why last year's team finished with 70 some wins; all thank Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez. At least the future on offense should be a lot brighter. It takes a couple of seasons to correct years of ineptitude. The future is bright, kids.
Back to the topic at hand... I see a team ERA+ in the 112-115 range. With a couple of breaks, we might end up with the best ERA+ in baseball... |
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baldmaga
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Joined: 11 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 8:56 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| Just about everyone reading this will already know this but ERA+ is normalized and therefore, higher is better. If you think the pitching will be worse, you think it will go down. |
I'm actually not familiar with ERA+
How is it calculated?
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stu
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:00 pm Post subject: |
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the Eric Byrnes/Jeff Davanon combination in left, the balls stopped going up the gaps in September;
Since Gonzo played every game in September, Gammons is back to his old form of making stuff up.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=gonzalu01&t=b |
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TAP
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:09 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
the Eric Byrnes/Jeff Davanon combination in left, the balls stopped going up the gaps in September;
Since Gonzo played every game in September, Gammons is back to his old form of making stuff up.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=gonzalu01&t=b |
I saw the same thing but thought I'd let his quote stand on its own merit. 
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TAP
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:42 pm Post subject: |
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| baldmaga wrote: |
| matt wrote: |
| Just about everyone reading this will already know this but ERA+ is normalized and therefore, higher is better. If you think the pitching will be worse, you think it will go down. |
I'm actually not familiar with ERA+
How is it calculated?
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League ERA (divided by) ERA
This statistic uses a league normalized earned run average in the calculation and is meant to measure how well the pitcher prevented runs from scoring relative to the rest of the league.
Pitching Stats 101
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matt
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| Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 9:45 pm Post subject: |
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baldmaga
ERA+ is like ERA except that it is adjusted for the park and league. If you look at baseball-reference.com, you will see three columns near the end of the pitching stats for a player. ERA, *lgERA, and *ERA+. ERA is the regular ERA, *lgERA is the ERA of the league adjusted for hte park and ERA+ is normalized. The formula is: (*lgERA/ERA) * 100. Therefore, to calculate it for Webb in 2003 when his ERA wsa 2.84 and the league ERA was 4.67 at BOB: 4.67/2.84*100 = 164.
The most amazing thing about 2003: Batista, Webb, and Schilling threw 542 innings at a 150 ERA+. The three combined for 28 wins. In 2002, Schilling won 23 in less than half of the innings.
| Code: |
IP ERA ERA+ W
Schilling 168 2.95 158 8
Batista 193.3 3.54 13 10
Webb 180.7 2.84 164 10
542 3.12 150 28 |
They just didn't know how to win. 
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TAP
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| Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 12:05 am Post subject: |
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| More one-liners from Joseph Reaves on 2007 NL West pitching as he borrows heavily from Peter Gammons' ESPN Insider article from yesterday. |
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matt
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| Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 9:07 am Post subject: |
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| 20 one-sentance paragraphs. |
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webby17
AAA Stud
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Posts: 51
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 12:55 am Post subject: |
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i love this part:
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The Diamondbacks set the tone two days after Thanksgiving when they acquired left-handers Doug Davis and Dana Eveland in a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers.
Three days later, the Dodgers answered by signing free-agent Wolf.
Colorado made an important move to stay with the pack two days after that by signing Francis to a new four-year contract.
Then, on Dec. 8, Los Angeles took the arms race to another level by signing longtime Giants' ace Jason Schmidt to a three-year deal.
San Diego countered five days later by luring Maddux away from the Dodgers. And two weeks after that the Giants made up for the loss of Schmidt by signing the other big-name free agent on the market, Barry Zito, to a seven-year deal.
The frenzy may have peaked last week when the Diamondbacks got Johnson back from New York in a trade with the Yankees.
Colorado added to its rotation last Friday, acquiring Rodrigo Lopez from the Baltimore Orioles. |
hahahahahaha
schmidt...zito...johnson....lopez!?!??
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dirtygary
Everyday Player
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| Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:06 am Post subject: |
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I voted for a decrease in the ERA+. Just thought we did better than we should ahve last year, and that we can't expect to have those kinds of results again. Even with a slightly improved rotation.
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ibcrackin2
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Joined: 09 Jan 2007
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Location: Phoenix
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| Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 8:38 am Post subject: |
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I see an improvement.
With at a minimum three 200 plus innings guys int he rotation I see an improved pen just from that. Heck the hard part might be finding adequate work for the entire pen, to keep them fresh.
This could go bad if injuries plague the starting rotation, in Hernandez and RJ. I hope that isn't the case but they are not spring chinkens any more and it (knock on wood hoping not) could happen. |
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csktech
September Call-Up
Joined: 25 Jan 2007
Posts: 94
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| Posted: Fri Jan 26, 2007 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: AZ ERA+ ...up or down in 2007? |
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| TAP wrote: |
| Peter Gammons today wrote: |
| The Diamondbacks are one of the most fascinating teams in the game and, by adding Johnson, Livan Hernandez and Doug Davis in with Brandon Webb, they have a veteran presence for their young pitchers and position players. There was consternation in the Valley when Gonzalez and Shawn Green were let go, but their outfield defense changed dramatically. With Chris Young in center, Carlos Quentin in right and the Eric Byrnes/Jeff Davanon combination in left, the balls stopped going up the gaps in September; Arizona's pitching had the lowest opposing OPS in that month in the majors. |
Cy Young winner Brandon Webb boasted a 154 ERA+ throughout the 2006 season. In spite of the newest Giant Russ Ortiz contributing a 63 ERA+ with AZ in 2006, the Diamondbacks pitching staff still earned the 4th best ERA+ in the NL, behind only:
Houston 111 ERA+
San Diego 109 ERA+
Los Angeles 108 ERA+
Arizona 106 ERA+
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Personally I believe that it will improve. Much as I loved Gonzo he had become a drag on the team. I pray to god that when his playing days are through he can forgive and come home where he belongs.
Randy is another question mark. But I believe thay he will come home and the differances between NY and Arizona will work in his favor. When you have bad bones The heat in our hometown is a blessed relief even though you sweat your ass off. I speak here from sad experiance. I have faith in Randy and he is gonna have a chip on his shoulder and prove all the naysaying assholes that once again, He right and they are wrong.
In all fairness I have to confess that Im a HUGE Randy Johnson fan so I will always give him the benefit of the doubt.
Hows everyone doing this fine TGIF day ?
Kyle
Go Dbacks
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TAP
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject: |
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This seemed as good a place as any for this piece...
| Lindsey Frazier / MLB.com tonight wrote: |
PHOENIX -- Only one Major League team this season can boast a quartet of hurlers who each amassed 200 or more innings pitched in 2006, with all four on the mound on Opening Day for their respective squads a year ago.
And just one staff can claim a starting rotation that has accounted collectively for two World Series MVP awards, six Cy Young Awards and 13 combined All-Star Game appearances.
It's no secret what general manager Josh Byrnes was attempting to do with that ball club -- the Diamondbacks -- when he went out this offseason and reacquired future Hall of Famer Randy Johnson and veteran Doug Davis to join stalwarts Brandon Webb and Livan Hernandez in the Arizona rotation this season.
With consistency and depth at the top of the rotation, the final spot will likely go to a candidate from a group of youngsters including Edgar Gonzalez, Enrique Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert, Micah Owings, Dana Eveland and Evan MacLane among others, and a veteran like Juan Cruz.
"If three starting pitchers can pitch nearly half our innings, it makes it easier on the other pitchers to do their jobs," Byrnes said. "We have a chance to have that happen. That's a good way for us to build our rotation, particularly with six, seven young guys behind them to compete for jobs."
In addition to some veteran arms, the D-backs also add a pair of coveted left-handers in Johnson and Davis, something the team lacked last season.
Webb, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner and the D-backs' 2006 Opening Day starter, finished last year's campaign with a 16-8 mark to go along with a 3.10 ERA. The 27-year-old Kentucky native finished in the top three in the league in innings pitched (235), complete games (5), ERA and shutouts (3), while tying five other NL pitchers to lead the league in wins.
"To have that title means a whole lot," Webb said of winning the Cy Young Award. "That's the top award that a pitcher can get in a year, and obviously, the No. 1 pitcher in the National League this year. It just sends chills through your body. It's unbelievable."
The 2006 season was memorable from the get-go for Webb as he went unbeaten in his first 13 starts, while posting an 8-0 record with a 2.14 ERA over that span. Webb, the D-backs' likely Opening Day starter for 2007, attended his first All-Star Game in 2006, when he retired a tough American League trio of Derek Jeter, David Ortiz and Alex Rodriguez in order.
He also posted 30 scoreless innings over three-plus starts from May 20 through the fifth inning of his June 5 start against the Phillies.
If healthy at the onset of the season, Johnson will step into the No. 2 spot in the D-backs rotation in 2007. Johnson, the Yankees' Opening Day hurler a year ago and owner of five Cy Young Awards, returns to the desert this year after spending two seasons in New York. Last year, he collected a 17-11 record over 205 innings pitched, although he held an elevated ERA of 5.00. Johnson battled back problems throughout the majority of the 2006 season.
Johnson -- who has made 10 All-Star Game appearances and was named co-MVP of the D-backs' 2001 World Series champion team -- underwent back surgery in late October to repair a herniated disc, and it is uncertain whether he will be ready to pitch at the beginning of the 2007 season.
"Being a manager, I'm looking to win and I'm looking to win now," said D-backs manager Bob Melvin at a press conference to announce Johnson's return to the team in early January.
"And we feel like [adding Johnson] increases our chance to win, and that's the bottom line for me. We think the surgery will help him be more consistent and feel better each and every time out on the mound."
The future Hall of Famer was the ace of the Diamondbacks staff for six seasons from 1999-2004 and won four consecutive Cy Young Awards over that span.
Hernandez split time between the D-backs and the Nationals last year and posted a combined 13-13 record with a 4.83 ERA. While his ERA hovered at 5.34 with Washington, it dropped nearly two whole points to 3.76 with the D-backs in 10 starts.
Hernandez, who served as the Nationals' Opening Day starter in 2006, is known around Major League Baseball for being a workhorse, as he has thrown at least 200 innings in each of the last seven seasons.
The 31-year-old has also demonstrated success in the postseason. In 1997, he helped lead the Marlins to the championship and was named the Most Valuable Player of both the NL Championship Series and the World Series. Hernandez, who made a pair of All-Star appearances in 2004 and 2005, has a 6-2 postseason record with both losses coming with the Giants in 2002.
Davis, the Brewers' Opening Day starter a year ago, compiled an 11-11 record in 2006 with a 4.91 ERA over 203 1/3 innings pitched, his third consecutive 200-plus inning season. Davis was part of a six-player deal that sent catcher Johnny Estrada to Milwaukee in November.
Although his walks, hits and ERA totals have risen over the last two seasons, the D-backs hope that with a better defense behind him, Davis will return to his 2004 form when he went 12-12 with a 3.39 ERA.
"I think we expect the same kind of Doug Davis season [as in 2004], and maybe with a little better luck [and] a better defense behind him, the ERA drops down a little bit," Byrnes said in November shortly after the deal was completed.
The experience at the front end of the rotation, should take some of the pressure off the younger pitchers who are competing for the No. 5 spot.
Both Enrique (3-7, 5.67) and Edgar Gonzalez (3-4, 4.22) -- no relation -- had the opportunity to get some big-league experience under their belts in 2006.
Owings, who split the 2006 season with Triple-A Tucson and Double-A Tennessee, went undefeated with the Sidewinders last year, boasting a 10-0 mark with a 3.70 ERA in 15 starts. With Tennessee, Owings went 6-2 with a 2.91 ERA.
Nippert pitched for the Sidewinders for the majority of the 2006 season and struggled in a pair of starts for D-backs, when he gave up 13 earned runs over 10 innings pitched for a 11.70 ERA. Nippert, however, led the Tucson team with 13 wins and 130 strikeouts.
Eveland, who was part of the Davis trade, spent the majority of last year with Triple-A Nashville and went 6-5 with a 2.74 ERA. He made five starts and nine appearances with the Brewers last year, but didn't find much success as he was winless with three losses and an ERA over eight.
MacLane, who was part of the Shawn Green trade to the Mets in August 2006, spent time with Double-A Binghamton, Triple-A Norfolk and Tucson last year and finished with a 13-9 combined record.
Veteran Juan Cruz worked both out of the bullpen and as a starter for the D-backs last year, and he went 5-6 with a 4.18 ERA.
Lindsey Frazier is an associate reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. |
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diamondbacker
MLB Rookie
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:22 pm Post subject: |
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Heck yes!
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Free Scotty! Trade Byrnes!
Go D-backs
Go Dolphins
Go Penguins
Go Suns |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 8:31 pm Post subject: |
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| TAP wrote: |
This seemed as good a place as any for this piece...
| Lindsey Frazier / MLB.com tonight wrote: |
And just one staff can claim a starting rotation that has accounted collectively for two World Series MVP awards, six Cy Young Awards and 13 combined All-Star Game appearances. [/b]
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Geez, let's cherry pick criteria, shall we?
Only 1 rotation boasts a lefty who's at least 6'9" tall and over 40 years of age AND the 2006 KY sportsman of the year who's also the reigning Cy Young winner. ...
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matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Only one rotation in the MLB can spell BRLD with the first letters of the first names of four of their starting pitchers. |
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TAP
Veteran Presence
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Posts: 2238
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| Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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Only the Diamondbacks boast 4 starters with a collective height of 25'6" with 2 virgos amongst them.  |
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