Diamondbacks Bullpen

[levski]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-diamondbacksmoves&prov=ap&type=lgns

[TAP]

[tmar]

3.6 for Julio? I'm guessing this won't be a sign & trade.

[baldmaga]

[shoewizard]

Guess I didn't think Julio through very well.......since he made 2.5 last year of course he was going to get more......

Cruz within 250,000.....close enough.

I'll revise the spreadsheet

[levski]

from rotoworld

[stu]

To review baseball arbitration.

The comps that are given most weight (and seemingly excessive so) are those within one year on the player. Thus Julio moves into a different and higher class this year. That alone merits an increase.

Next, his 4.2 era is not that bad. Pitching has increased in price that bumps it up some.

Finally, with baseball arbitration you have to decide what salary the team is going to submit. With these facts, you have to say at least between a 500k-750k increase.

Then you have to decide if it is worth the 250-500k risk that you lose and that you have annoyed not only this player but future players. No team wants to go to arbitration. As Miller foresaw when he designed the system, the system favors getting to a higher salary for the player.

IMO, hte price is high for Julio, but probably the settlement and the benefits of avoiding arbitration are worth the relatively small extra potential savings.

[shoewizard]

Stu, if you have a chance, take a look at the payroll thread and let me know what you would estimate for the remaining Arb guys. If you are looking for service time, remember to add 1 year to whatever is on Cots.

[stu]

Without doing a lot of work, it is hard to guess what the salaries will be. I can't find any arb awards after 2004 and it is hard to go through salaries and ST for all players since I can't find them in one spot by position.

Having said that, except for Davis, I think your guesses are pretty good as for what would be offered. I'd add another million to Davis (he has 5 years plus 135 days ST) and 500-750k to Byrnes. One of the points of my prior post was that a settlement should add something to what would be offered in arb.

Hudson with 4 years ST and DeRosa (who was a FA getting 4M per year) maybe a little high, but 500k at most. You said more because you thinking long term deal. I think generally Hudson is a good guess.

Valverde is tough to figure because of his injuries and whether he gets paid as a closer. If you are off, my guess is that you are low by 50ok at most. He is first year so the award should be at the lowest level.

BTW, I think Cots has been updated so the ST is correct through 2006.

[shoewizard]

Thanks for the input.

I had someone at primer also tell me i was one or even two million low on Davis. If they are working through some of these contracts now though, it's probably just easier to wait till they announce a few more.

Lyon is an interesting case. His ST is about he same as Cruz. Valverde has a year less than both of them, but of course has been a closer and has more saves, so I don't know if that means anything or if it's only about the service time.

[levski]

If all the arb players get higher contracts than shoewiz expected, the Dbacks might be at $60m even BEFORE they have to make a decision on Eric Byrnes. That's good.

I foresee Lyon getting one year deal similar to Cruz; the Dbacks might talk to Valverde about a long term deal (3 years, plus guaranteed or option for his first free agent year) if they think they can get a bargain.

Byrnes will get one year deal, that's a no-brainer. With Hudson two years away from arbitration, the Dbacks might try to sign him for 2-3 years at a team friendly deal, if possible, but if they can't agree on numbers, I won't be shocked if he gets one year deal so the Dbacks can explore trading him next year to make room for Callaspo if they like what they see from him.

Finally, given the contracts that free agent pitchers have been getting, and given the uncertainty of how Davis will pitch in AZ, I expect that the Dbacks will sign him to one year deal and explore options to sign him long term mid-season if they like what they see from him and/or don't like what they see from Edgar, Dana, Enrique, Micah, Dustin et al.

[TAP]

[foulpole]

[Dre]

I think the fact that Julio was a closer for points in time during his career including last season has definitely had an affect on his arby figures. Without his experience in that role, you'd have to think his salaries would always be a little lower.

[foulpole]

[levski]

[foulpole]