Diamondbacks Bullpen

David B · Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2007 5:54 pm Post subject: Prospects in Retrospect

A cautionary tale...even the best prospects don't always pan out

Matthew Pouliot
Strike Zone
January 1, 2007

2002 Top 100 Prospects

At about this time a year ago, I went back into the archives and dug up the 2001 Top 50 Prospects article, reprinted with new comments. Well, here's the 2002 list, except there are no new comments this time. Everything is left unchanged from when it was originally posted five years ago. Frankly, this is the worst list I've done and I have little desire to revisit it in full. Also, I'm in full-on magazine mode right now, which means I'm taking a break from the column until Jan. 22. Beginning then, I'll be running through my top 10 prospects by team, one division at a time, in anticipation of the 2007 Top 150 in early March.

So, here's the list. Players are presented along with their ages as of Opening Day 2002 and their rankings in the top 50s I had done the previous January and midseason.

Top 100 Prospects

1. Josh Beckett - RHP Marlins - Age 21 - Preseason #7 - Midseason #1 - ETA: Now
6-0, 1.23 ERA, 32 H, 101/15 K/BB in 65 2/3 IP for Single-A Brevard County
8-1, 1.82 ERA, 50 H, 102/19 K/BB in 74 1/3 IP for Double-A Portland
2-2, 1.50 ERA, 14 H, 24/11 K/BB in 24 IP for Florida

There's little left to write about baseball's top prospect. Beckett was one of the top performers in the minors last season and shined during a September callup. He has four plus pitches, including a mid-90s fastball. Only injuries can get in his way. He did battle elbow problems in 2000. If he stays healthy, he may only be two years away from contending for a Cy Young.

2. Hank Blalock - 3B Rangers - Age 21 - Preseason NR - Midseason #11 - ETA: May 2002
.380, 7 HR, 47 RBI, 31/26 K/BB, 7 SB in 237 AB for Single-A Charlotte
.327, 11 HR, 61RBI, 38/39 K/BB, 3 SB in 272 AB for Double-A Tulsa
.344, 11 HR, 36 RBI, 20/19 K/BB, 5 SB in 122 AB for Peoria of the AFL

Blalock was not only awesome in the minors, but he was also the best hitter in the Arizona Fall League. He's now the top prospect in the American League. Blalock should be playing third base for the Rangers prior to the All-Star break. He has room to improve defensively, but he should be above average in time. Expect greatness.

3. Sean Burroughs - 3B Padres - Age 21 - Preseason #1 - Midseason #2 - ETA: Now
.322, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 54/37 K/BB, 9 SB in 394 AB for Triple-A Portland

My No.1 overall prospect a year ago, it's through no fault of his own that he's fallen a couple notches. In fact, he's a better prospect now than he was then. He hit .322 in the Pacific Coast League as a 20-year-old and began to show better power. Burroughs is expected to become San Diego's third baseman next season. It will be a couple years before he's a star in fantasy leagues, but he should be a decent player immediately.

4. Nick Johnson - 1B Yankees - Age 23 - Preseason #5 - Midseason #4 - ETA: Now
.256, 18 HR, 49 RBI, 105/81 K/BB, 9 SB in 359 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.194, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 15/7 K/BB in 67 AB for New York (AL)
.314, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 40/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 121 AB for Peoria of the AFL

Still the top first-base prospect in baseball, Johnson is an on-base machine. His power is below average for a first baseman, but it will continue to develop. At worst, he'll be Sean Casey. A Jeff Bagwell-type career is possible. Even though he's a better fielder than Jason Giambi, he'll spend 2002 as the Yankees' DH.

5. Mark Prior - RHP Cubs - Age 21 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: Sept. 2002

Prior, the second overall pick in the 2001 draft, did not pitch after coming to terms with the Cubs in August. Considering just how hard he had been worked while at USC, that was probably for the best. However, it pretty much eliminated any chance of Prior fitting into the Cubs' plans for 2002. Prior has excellent command of a mid-90s fastball and a first-rate curve. He could be ready to pitch for the Cubs after the All-Star break, but it's quite likely that they won't need him until 2003.

6. Wilson Betemit - SS Braves - Age 20 - Preseason #42 - Midseason #38 - ETA: Sept. 2002
.277, 7 HR, 43 RBI, 71/23 K/BB, 8 SB in 318 AB for Single-A Myrtle Beach
.355, 5 HR, 19 RBI, 36/12 K/BB, 6 SB in 183 AB for Double-A Greenville
.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 3/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 3 AB for Atlanta

Betemit was a bit of a disappointment while playing for Myrtle Beach, but his stint in Double-A was nearly good enough to earn him a starting job in Atlanta this season. Before signing Vinny Castilla, the Braves had considered making Betemit their shortstop, pushing Rafael Furcal to third base and Chipper Jones to left. Eventually, it will probably be Betemit who ends up at third base. Either way, he's an outstanding prospect, but one who could probably use a few more months in the minors.

7. Juan Cruz - RHP Cubs - Age 21 - Preseason #46 - Midseason #27 - ETA: Now
9-6, 4.01 ERA, 107 H, 137/60 K/BB in 121 1/3 IP for Double-A West Tenn
3-1, 3.22 ERA, 40 H, 39/17 K/BB in 44 2/3 IP for Chicago (NL)

Though he was inconsistent in Double-A, Cruz shined after being called up to the Cubs in August and is the team's fourth starter heading into 2002. Cruz's stuff is even better than Prior's. His fastball reaches 96 mph, and his slider can be devastating. He also has a better changeup than Prior. However, he does have some problems with control, walking a batter nearly every other inning last season. He's talented enough to survive while doing that, but he won't be truly great until he spots his pitches better.

8. Ryan Anderson - LHP Mariners - Age 22 - Preseason #3 - Midseason #7 - ETA: June 2002

Anderson missed all of 2001 with a torn labrum, but he remains one of the game's finest prospects. Assuming his mid-90s fastball comes back, there's every reason to believe that he'll be an above average starter in the majors before the end of the year. Expect him to spend at least the first two months of 2002 in Triple-A.

9. Joe Borchard - OF White Sox - Age 22 - Preseason NR - Midseason #9 - ETA: Sept. 2002
.414, 0 HR, 8 RBI, 4/4 K/BB, 0 SB in 29 AB for Rookie AZL White Sox
.295, 27 HR, 98 RBI, 158/67 K/BB, 5 SB in 515 AB for Double-A Birmingham
.204, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 11/6 K/BB, 1 SB in 54 AB for Mesa of the AFL

Borchard, the former Stanford quarterback, might have more power potential than anyone in the minors. The big question with him is whether or not he can be a major league center fielder. Borchard is a natural right fielder. He might be adequate in center for teams with quality defenders at the corners, but the White Sox aren't one of those teams. For that reason, Borchard may have to wait until 2003 for his chance. By then, the Sox will have decided which of their outfielders to keep.

10. Mark Teixeira - 3B Rangers - Age 21 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: June 2003

Teixeira slipped to the fifth pick in the 2001 draft because of his bonus demands. He's a devastating hitter. Even if he ends up in the outfield, he's a potential All-Star. Teixeira is solid enough defensively to play third base in the majors, but with Blalock ahead of him, he could move to left field. He might need only one full year in the minors.

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2007 6:11 pm Post subject:

3 busts out of top 10 players....that doesn't seem that bad.

David B · Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2007 6:32 pm Post subject:

Maybe only three out and out busts, but Prior and Cruz would also certainly be labled underachievers (Prior because of injury), and Beckett's contributions (again, because of injury) have been spotty. And as you go further down the list of 100 it gets even bleaker. 11 through 25, Mauer, Rauch, and Kearns are about the only guys worth a damn. As expected, top pitchers are the hardest to predict.

11. Nick Neugebauer - RHP Brewers - Age 21 - Preseason NR - Midseason #12 - ETA: Now
5-6, 3.46 ERA, 94 H, 149/52 K/BB in 106 2/3 IP for Double-A Huntsville
2-1, 1.50 ERA, 10 H, 26/9 K/BB in 24 IP for Triple-A Indianapolis
1-1, 7.50 ERA, 6 H, 11/6 K/BB in 6 IP for Milwaukee

Neugebauer's stuff rivals Josh Beckett's and Juan Cruz's. He throws in the mid-90s with ease, and his breaking pitch is very difficult to hit. Though his changeup still needs a lot of work, he will be able to succeed as a two-pitch pitcher, at least for a couple years. Neugebauer sustained tears to both his rotator cuff and labrum late last season, making his status uncertain heading into 2002. If he looks good in spring training, he'll be a great pick in fantasy leagues. Health is the only thing standing between him and stardom.

12. Carlos Pena - 1B/OF Rangers - Age 23 - Preseason #30 - Midseason #36 - ETA: Now
.288, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 127/80 K/BB, 11 SB in 431 AB for Triple-A Oklahoma
.258, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 17/10 K/BB, 0 SB in 62 AB for Texas

With Rafael Palmeiro blocking him at first base, the Rangers decided to try Carlos Pena in right field over the winter. He may play the position in 2002, but in the long-term, he's still a first baseman. Pena should be one of the American League's better players for a long time, but like Palmeiro, he might not go to many All-Star games. As a fantasy prospect, there aren't many better.

13. Jon Rauch - RHP White Sox - Age 23 - Preseason #10 - Midseason #10 - ETA: July 2002
1-3, 5.79 ERA, 28 H, 27/7 K/BB in 28 IP for Triple-A Charlotte

Rauch, considered by some to be the top pitching prospect in baseball after 2000, missed most of last season after shoulder surgery. He'll need two or three months in the minors at the start of next year, but he could join the White Sox rotation after the All-Star break. He's a potential ace, but his health is a significant concern.

14. Dennis Tankersley - RHP Padres - Age 23 - Preseason NR - Midseason #14 - ETA: July 2002
5-1, 0.52 ERA, 29 H, 68/12 K/BB in 52 1/3 IP for Single-A Lake Elsinore
4-1, 2.07 ERA, 44 H, 89/24 K/BB in 69 2/3 IP for Double-A Mobile
1-2, 6.91 ERA, 16 H, 16/8 K/BB in 14 1/3 IP for Triple-A Portland

Tankersley, stolen away from the Red Sox in 2000, was one of the top performers in the minors until injuries struck late last season. Tankersley throws multiple fastballs and tops out at 94 mph. His slider is better than his curveball, but both are solid pitches. The re-signing of Kevin Jarvis and acquisition of Brett Tomko have eliminated any chance of Tankersley beginning next season in the majors. That's just as well. He could use some time in Triple-A.

15. Drew Henson - 3B Yankees - Age 22 - Preseason #40 - Midseason #17 - ETA: July 2003
.143, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 7/2 K/BB, 1 SB in 14 AB for Single-A Tampa
.368, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 4/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 19 AB for Double-A Norwich
.222, 11 HR, 38 RBI, 85/10 K/BB, 2 SB in 270 AB for Triple-A Columbus
.314, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 40/17 K/BB, 0 SB in 121 AB for Peoria of the AFL

Henson, the former University of Michigan quarterback, disappointed in Triple-A, but he was very good in the Arizona Fall League. Henson has 40-homer potential. His 85/10 K/BB ratio at Columbus is a cause for concern, but the Yankees will teach him patience. The fall performance had the Yankees considering rushing Henson to the majors. However, the Robin Ventura acquisition will result in Henson getting a full year in Triple-A.

16. Josh Hamilton - OF Devil Rays - Age 20 - Preseason #2 - Midseason #5 - ETA: Sept. 2003
.364, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 3/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 11 AB for Single-A Charleston
.180, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 22/5 K/BB, 2 SB in 89 AB for Double-A Orlando
.000, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1/1 K/BB, 0 SB in 7 AB for Maryvale of the AFL

Despite his lost season, Hamilton is still clearly Tampa Bay's top prospect. Hamilton, the first overall pick in the 1999 draft, missed much of the year with back problems. Quadriceps and biceps injuries stalled comeback attempts. Hamilton has one of the biggest upsides in the minors. The good news resulting from his injuries is that the Rays will now be less inclined to rush him to the majors. Staying healthy is his most important goal for 2002.

17. Joe Mauer - C Twins - Age 18 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: 2005
.400, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 10/19 K/BB, 4 SB in 110 AB for Rookie Elizabethton

You can argue about the order, but no team has five prospects who set themselves apart from the pack like the Twins do. Mauer was the first overall pick in 2001. The Twins caught some flack for picking him over Mark Prior. It was a financially-driven move, but one that might not turn out too badly. Mauer isn't going to be ready for three or four years, but he's already the top catching prospect in the minors.

18. Austin Kearns - OF Reds - Age 21 - Preseason #29 - Midseason #46 - ETA: April 2003
.174, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7/2 K/BB, 0 SB in 17 AB for GCL Reds
.268, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 43/26 K/BB, 7 SB in 205 AB for Double-A Chattanooga
.371, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 23/19 K/BB, 1 SB in 116 AB for Grand Canyon of the AFL

Kearns got off to a slow start in Double-A and then tore a thumb ligament in May. He played pretty well after returning in August and was excellent in the Arizona Fall League. Any chance of him opening the 2002 season in Cincinnati disappeared with the Juan Encarnacion acquisition. Still, Kearns could get his big chance in the second half of the year. It would be better if he was given a full season in Triple-A. Kearns is an elite fantasy prospect.

19. Chris Snelling - OF Mariners - Age 20 - Preseason #31 - Midseason #26 - ETA: August 2003
.336, 7 HR, 73 RBI, 63/45 K/BB, 12 SB in 450 AB for Single-A San Bernadino

Snelling has put up great numbers everywhere he's played, and he's still just 20 years old. The Mariners will continue to take things slowly with him, but he could force his way into their outfield before the end of 2003. Snelling isn't going to be a fantasy superstar, but he could be a better version of Rusty Greer.

20. Hee Seop Choi - 1B Cubs - Age 23 - Preseason #12 - Midseason #15 - ETA: April 2003
.229, 13 HR, 45 RBI, 67/34 K/BB, 5 SB in 266 AB for Triple-A Iowa

Wrist tendinitis ruined Choi's 2001 season, but it didn't change the fact that he's an excellent player. With Fred McGriff signed for one more year, the Cubs will be able to give Choi a full season at Triple-A Iowa. Choi could battle Prior for Rookie of the Year honors in 2003. He should eventually become one of the National League's top fantasy first basemen.

21. Carlos Hernandez - LHP Astros - Age 21 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: Now
12-3, 3.69 ERA, 115 H, 167/69 K/BB in 139 IP for Double-A Round Rock
1-0, 1.02 ERA, 11 H, 17/7 K/BB in 17 2/3 IP for Houston

Hernandez jumped from Double-A to the majors and was very impressive until partially tearing his rotator cuff. Hernandez has a good low-90s fastball, but his best pitch is his curveball. Control problems could make him a disappointment in the short term, but he will eventually be a quality pitcher at the major league level. If healthy, he'll have a rotation spot at the beginning of the season.

22. Marlon Byrd - OF Phillies - Age 24 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: July 2002
.316, 28 HR, 89 RBI, 93/52 K/BB, 32 SB in 510 AB for Double-A Reading
.331, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 25/7 K/BB, 2 SB in 148 AB for Grand Canyon of the AFL

Byrd's speed and power combination along with his mediocre strike-zone judgment make him look like the typical tools prospect. In fact, he is anything but. Hard work and determination are what has turned Byrd into a player. He's dramatically improved his power, speed and throwing arm since being drafted in 1999. Byrd still isn't a burner in center field, but he should be adequate there for at least a few years. He could take over Doug Glanville's starting job as soon as June and is a tremendous fantasy prospect.

23. Jerome Williams - RHP Giants - Age 20 - Preseason #44 - Midseason #31 - ETA: April 2003
9-7, 3.95 ERA, 116 H, 84/34 K/BB in 130 IP for Double-A Shreveport

Williams' season started slowly after his mother passed away in the spring. After joining Shreveport, he put together a solid season., though it would have been nice to see him strike out a few more hitters. Williams has command of four pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and is a potential No. 2 starter. He needs one more full year in the minors, but he could be ready to help the Giants as soon as 2003.

24. Kenny Baugh - RHP Tigers - Age 23 - Preseason NR - Midseason NR - ETA: August 2002
2-1, 1.59 ERA, 31 H, 39/10 K/BB in 34 IP for Single-A West Michigan
1-3, 2.97 ERA, 23 H, 30/6 K/BB in 30 1/3 IP for Double-A Erie

Baugh, the Tigers' first-round pick in 2001, looked excellent against Double-A hitters and could be the first player from the draft to get into a big-league game. Baugh consistently throws in the low-90s and features a solid curve and an excellent changeup. He's a polished pitcher who projects as a second or third starter. He's quite likely to appear in the Detroit rotation before the end of 2002.

25. Jack Cust - OF/1B Diamondbacks - Age 23 - Preseason #22 - Midseason #18 - ETA: July 2002
.278, 27 HR, 79 RBI, 160/102 K/BB, 6 SB in 442 AB for Triple-A Tucson
.500, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 0/0 K/BB, 0 SB in 2 AB for Arizona

Cust still can't field, and that probably isn't ever going to change. However, he certainly can hit. If traded to the American League, he'd immediately become a solid designated hitter and he could be the best in the league in a few years. Cust is a Jim Thome clone at the plate. He may never have a job in Arizona, so just about any American League team could have him for a decent pitcher. Don't be surprised if he's an Athletic or a Blue Jay before July 31.

EvilJuan · Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2007 6:33 pm Post subject:

NJ-DBACKS-FAN · Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 5:43 am Post subject:

David B · Posted: Wed Jan 03, 2007 11:11 am Post subject:

I watched Cust play an entire season in Portland last year. The guy still walks a ton, and has decent power (he also still can't field his way out of a paper bag). I'm surprised an AL team hasn't given him another shot--even as just part of a DH platoon.