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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 187
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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 Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 1:47 pm Post subject: How good of a lead off hitter was counsell last year? |
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Found this interesting link over at the hardball times...
If you read through the article, you'll notice that counsell is either the 28th or 29th worst leadoff hitter last year, using just about every metric
out there.
Maybe someone will go ahead and do some quotations of the article... I'm far too lazy to do that, and I'd rather help out a fellow blogger get some web traffic.
_________________
I broke my hand, so i'm all hopped up on vicodin., so my posts might be more incoherent than usual.
-Zephon |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:19 pm Post subject: |
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Good stuff.
Last year, despite overwhelming evidence that Counsell was a terrible choice for leadoff past the month of April, Melvin insisted on batting him there regardless.
So here is what Bomel needs to do:
Go to the number crunchers that Josh has hired, and ask them which players on the roster not named Conor Jackson project to have the highest OBP vs. Righties and vs. lefties, and just use those two players switching off depending on the handedness of the pitcher.
The rest of the lineup will work itself out just fine. |
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matt
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1821
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:24 pm Post subject: |
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Hey, as long as the guy who bats second can bunt, we will be fine!  |
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tmar
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1234
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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| So Hairston's not batting 2nd is what you're saying. |
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dbacks08
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 22
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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Counsell is not half bad, he's going to net us a decent draft pick. 
What is everyone's thoughts on CJ leading off? |
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Counsell
MLB Rookie
Joined: 28 Aug 2006
Posts: 237
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:09 pm Post subject: |
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Well, his OBA his great, but he's slow (important, although certainly not as important as OBA) and he's a power hitter on a team with a relative dearth of power hitters. So you'd obviously prefer not to have him there.
Theoretically a good question, but there's no way that Melvin would ever even CONSIDER putting him there. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| which players on the roster not named Conor Jackson project to have the highest OBP |
[/u][/i]
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dbacks08
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 14 Dec 2006
Posts: 22
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 5:42 pm Post subject: |
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yes I know shoewiz. your post is what gave me the idea to ask the question. Can I ask that if CJ projects to have the highest OBP against either a righty or lefty, why should he be excluded from the leadoff equation?
I think it would be interesting. If we think CJ is the best hitter in our lineup, then it would maximize his ABs. I understand he's slow, but other than Young (who will not leadoff with Melvin as manager) who is a great basestealer on this team? I would think CJ's OBP would make him a good leadoff candidate for our team.
CJ
Drew
Tracy
Quentin
Young
Hairston
Hudson
Montero/Snyder |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 6:17 pm Post subject: |
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This will be a post Dangerfield will love:
Synergy, Intangibles...whatever.
I think the negative psychological impact on Jackson were he to be designated the leadoff hitter would serverley affect his performance.
From a pure numbers standpoint it can be justified....but they are not robots. Batting CJ leadoff would just mess with his head. |
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YBC-Dog
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 134
Location: The PHX
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 8:03 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
This will be a post Dangerfield will love:
Synergy, Intangibles...whatever.
I think the negative psychological impact on Jackson were he to be designated the leadoff hitter would serverley affect his performance.
From a pure numbers standpoint it can be justified....but they are not robots. Batting CJ leadoff would just mess with his head. |
I disagree.
Jackson has one of the most disciplined approaches and best eyes at the plate I've ever seen for a rookie, and even though he did slump a couple times, IMO he was the most consistent guy day in and day out...and at times (and against really good pitchers) seemed unflappable, especially in regards to chasing pitches and taking walks.
I think if they asked him to adjust his approach he would struggle, but they would basically be asking him to maintain the same approach he has always had...get on base, hit to all fields, the occasional HR....
I would at least consider him for it...much better option that Eric Byrnes...but I think CoJack is gonna probably end up hitting 3 or 4.
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 187
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:48 pm Post subject: |
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Chris Young is going to have a monstrous season.
Just to throw this out there. This is my future line up in 08.
Drew, SS
Young Cf
Quentin, Rf
Jackson 1b
Tracy/Mark Reynolds??? 3b
Carlos Gonzales RF
Miguel Montero C
Micah Owings P
Orlando Hudson/Alberto Callaspo 2b
That is a scary lineup..... Swap a few of those name, maybe throw a Justin Upton in the Mix... We'll have a scary offense as soon as these guys hit their prime.
_________________
I broke my hand, so i'm all hopped up on vicodin., so my posts might be more incoherent than usual.
-Zephon |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:54 pm Post subject: |
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nice touch with Owings batting 8th....lol
Could get a little crowded in RF though.  |
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Guitar Salad
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 144
Location: Ventura, CA
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:57 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
Could get a little crowded in RF though. |
That just made my day.
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Ha ha! Charade you are...
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TAP
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2540
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Could get a little crowded in RF though. |
Not that there's anything wrong with that. 
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TAP
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 2540
Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 10:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Coverage in LF is unchanged from 2006. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2006 11:03 pm Post subject: |
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| TAP wrote: |
| Coverage in LF is unchanged from 2006. |
Actually it might even be better this way
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 187
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:28 am Post subject: |
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I meant to put Quentin in left field.
But yeah.
Obviously didn't proof read my post. I finally got out and had a date with someone new last night... I was kinda f*d up when I made the post....
_________________
I broke my hand, so i'm all hopped up on vicodin., so my posts might be more incoherent than usual.
-Zephon |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 8:30 am Post subject: |
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We know.....just can't pass up the opportunity poke fun.
So..did you get laid? |
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Dangerfield
Everyday Player
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
Posts: 686
Location: worm factory
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:00 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| I think the negative psychological impact on Jackson were he to be designated the leadoff hitter would serverley affect his performance |
He could lead-off, but he's too good as the bridge to the 1/2-4/5 guys. The goal of the line-up is to have the mashers come up with a frustrated pitcher on the mound. Cj's going to hit for power, eventually, he was by far, over the season our best run producer. He doesn't necessarily work pitchers, as he more makes them work, because he has such a great eye.
I'll go through the line-up again, but first Counce. Counce was terrible last year, because of his shoulder, last thing anyone with shoulder problem can do is check his swing, and getting behind in the count wasn't as much of an option for Counce last year either. Now taking that into account, one of counce's greatest strengths for us, from the lead-off role, he was making the pitcher work, and sacrificed some of his ab's by taking the 1-1 pitch, 2-1 pitch, 3-1 pitch all the way. Those types of counts, is the recon the team needs to see how a pitcher's going to work for the most part, or if he has his command etc...Counce was a good lead-off hitter, defensive player. He played his role for us the last couple of years, the middle of the line-up for the most part has been the problem.
Now, aw fuck it, gotta go...
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it
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baldmaga
Journeyman
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 497
Location: Louisiana
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:08 am Post subject: |
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To answer the question posed in the topic title.
A: Not Good. |
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shoewizard
Hall of Famer
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 3541
Location: In front of my computer
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:10 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| Now taking that into account, one of counce's greatest strengths for us, from the lead-off role, he was making the pitcher work, and sacrificed some of his ab's by taking the 1-1 pitch, 2-1 pitch, 3-1 pitch all the way. Those types of counts, is the recon the team needs to see how a pitcher's going to work for the most part, or if he has his command etc...Counce was a good lead-off hitter, defensive player. He played his role for us the last couple of years, the middle of the line-up for the most part has been the problem. |
Counsell WAS NOT making the pitcher work in 2006 nearly as much as he had in the past. That was the problem.
He saw 3.76 pitchers per plate appearance in 2006, compared to 4.08 P/PA in 2005. Thats a big dropand was the lowest of his career since his rookie season.
As you mentioned, he had the shoulder injury, and we had noticed he was not fouling off as many pitches as he used to. It all may be related. The point was Melvin was remiss in his duties by running him out there every day and leading him off every game.
He should have been playing about 2 out of 3 games and should not have been leading off past the month of April when it was evident he was no longer up to the role. Loyalty to your veterans is a good thing. But Melvin takes it too far sometimes, to the detriment of the teams overall production.
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 187
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 10:18 am Post subject: |
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It's all good shoe. First date, caught a movie(on her), and then went back to my place and hung out, talked and got high as a kite a with her while we listened to some music. It's been a rough last month or two for me. So much drama, especially to go into detail on the board. It was just great to meet someone new, and get out away from the mess that has been my life as of late.
Anyway, I feel like crap today. I threw a session yesterday and the weather is killing me. Legs, shoulder, arms just about everything hurts. Gah.
_________________
I broke my hand, so i'm all hopped up on vicodin., so my posts might be more incoherent than usual.
-Zephon |
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levski
Veteran Presence
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1907
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| zephon, make a video of yourself pitching, send it to the dbacks... |
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Zephon
MLB Rookie
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 187
Location: Tucson, Arizona
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| Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2006 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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As soon as I can afford to buy a video camera, lev, as soon as I can afford it.
I'm afraid with all my health problems I'm going to be the next carl pavano...
Edit: Or Mark Prior
Edit: Or Kerry Wood..
Edit again: Anyway, who the hell IS the best lead off canidate next year? I'm saying Drew or Young.
_________________
I broke my hand, so i'm all hopped up on vicodin., so my posts might be more incoherent than usual.
-Zephon |
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