Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:25 am Post subject: Orlando Hudson .808 OPS 100 OPS+

Continuing the series:

The purpose of these discussion series and polls will be to get a read from the board members what they think about the prospects of each individual player for 2007.

For hitters, the gauge will simply be OPS, up or down. For pitchers, the gauge will be ERA, up or down.

I am not looking for detailed projections, although feel free to post whatever data and projections you like to support your up or down vote. Scouting/Observation based reasoning behind the up or down predictions are just as valid as stat based predictions. I want to hear from everyone.

For the players who split time between the majors and minors, or different levels in the minors, I am using a Composite of their MLE's as available on Minor Leauge Splits , and their major league numbers.

Please vote in the poll first, and then please post whatever comments you would like to support your vote. I will cut and paste this message at the beginning of each player thread, so any newbies will be familiar with what we are doing.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1238

Continuing my fanboy approach - i will say up. I really wanted to say "same" but that would be a cop-out.

I just think he had such an awful first two months of the year - OPS by month shown here:

April_______ .620
May________.640
June_______ .895
July________.961
August______.929
September___.807

Although he was playing over his head late, i dont expect that April and May to happen again.

I do expect that he will cut down on the errors, and i think if we can get an OPS about 800, i will be plenty happy with that from him..

My prediction - OPS of 815

TSWINDERS · Journeyman Joined: 05 Sep 2006 Posts: 462

I voted up, An OPS around .820. I don't expect the huge numbers of July, August but I don't think that April or May will happen again.

baldmaga · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 9:11 am Post subject:

I blame April and May to being the transition from the AL to the NL...I think Hudson really likes Arizona, and he has a great hitters park to showcase his skills.

I voted Up.

Dangerfield · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 9:47 am Post subject:

he stays with his small stroke, and understand he hits the zone pitchers work, with their eyes shut, he could have a monster year....and when in mid-may, last year his season turned around he started .....I'd go into more but won't.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it

Oden · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:02 am Post subject:

I'm selling high on Hudson, so I'll say down. I expect some lost time due to injury this year and that'll affect his play.
_________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oden
Anal Mod Squad

dbacks08 · A-Ball Kid Joined: 14 Dec 2006 Posts: 22

qudjy1 posted some really good numbers that explain why I think Hudson is in for a better year. He's a guy who is in his prime and is a great athlete who is tranlating some of those skills to the plate. Last year he showed a lot more plate discipline than he had ever before in his career, also, which augurs well for the future. I think he's really matured as a hitter and I see a .840 OPS season as he establishes himself as the 2nd best overall 2 bagger in baseball after Utley.

McCray · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:02 pm Post subject:

i'd almost forgotten how bad april and may really were. i have to say up, looking at those. i mean, over the course of the year he was average offensively, right? 100 ops+? and he got to that mark while sucking major ass for the first 60 days.

so, what are the odds he sucks ass again for that long? if it was adjusting to the NL, it shouldn't be a problem again.
_________________
Hank, you're dead to me.

misterx · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:23 pm Post subject:

i dont know why but i dont think hudson will have as good as year so a voted down
_________________
its all fun and games untill some loses an eye then its fun we cant see

Oden · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:30 pm Post subject:

2005 – .728

Apr .699
May .697
Jun .635
Jul .915
Aug .768
Sep .556
_________________
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Oden
Anal Mod Squad

shoewizard · Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:36 pm Post subject:

I voted up because I was impressed that he maintained a high level of performance for 3 straight months , (June/July/August) and didn't do badly in September either, just not quite as good.

3 straight months hitting that well might well indicate a real improvement, or step up in his abilities.

Maybe I should be adding in an option "Stays the same" in the polls, but I wanted to make it either or so people would be more committed to their direction.
Otherwise most people will just vote stays the same for half our players, because they are tough to project.

matt · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1821

I think it is good to exclude the option of 'stays the same' because it forces people like me to make a frackin decision

foulpole · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1380

I say up.

I feel that June through Sept are more the real O-Dawg than April and May.

League and comfort adjustments last year.

Better D in '07 as well.

shoewizard · Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 8:47 am Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:36 am Post subject:

I say down. He won't be in the same lineup, with the perceived bats around him. This year he;ll be more of a focus, and might attempt to do too much after this extension gets worked out. I expect solid D, and an OPS of .780-.790.
_________________
The pen is mightier than the sword, if that pen is shot out of a gun

rgndvo · MLB Rookie Joined: 07 Dec 2006 Posts: 158

I would be okay with "same" but I think his bump upwards was a little too drastic to be just maturation or ballpark. Id say if he can keep the OPS around .800, Id be cool with him but I think he had a lot of things go right for him. Just my bias I think.

Counsell · MLB Rookie Joined: 28 Aug 2006 Posts: 237

Hope I'm wrong, but I think 2006 was his career year. I fear that's all you can get out of that swing.

Dangerfield · Posted: Wed Jan 10, 2007 12:27 pm Post subject:

this is where, O-dog, should use the final Padre game this year, as a microcosm of his career. He has the type of swing/power that if tries to hit homers, he'll not only get himself out of sorts, but it cost him a chance to be considered elite.

He has Boggsian ability, at hitting low pitches for basehits. Pitchers hate working up in the zone. They will to him, though. Its up to him to lay-off, and become a superstar or whither. He could have monster year. I'm leading him off, for 2 months, benching him or trading him, and letting Alberto win the 2nd base job, if he wants to go back to his Toronto years, because if he does, he's peaked.
_________________
My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it