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| shoewizard |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:42 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 9702
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6/120
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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:28 am
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Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:29 pm
Posts: 16
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Padres offering 5 years 90 to 95 million
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| dirtygary |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:06 am
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3292
Location: Katy, TX
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It would be wonderful for SFG to sink that $$ into a declining asset. The only hope for the Dbax is that LA/SF spend their money foolishly.
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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:12 pm
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Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:29 pm
Posts: 16
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Red Sox offering 5 years 95 million
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| dirtygary |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:23 pm
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3292
Location: Katy, TX
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That probably pushes the Giants into the 6yr/$115M range, with a club-friendly structure.
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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?
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| misterx |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:40 am
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 7619
Location: Katy, Tx
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Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
Sandoval has agreement to go to the red sox for 5 years, close to 100M
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Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.
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| shoewizard |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:38 pm
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shoewizard wrote:
TAP wrote:
SF Giants update: 5'11" 245+ lbs Pablo Sandoval seeks at least six-year deal
Here is some back of the Napkin stuff for how I view Pablo.
Over the last 3 seasons he has a weighted avg of 2.9 WAR, (Simple 3,2,1 weighting)
Scenario 1 is realistic , Scenario 2 is Optimistic
Scenario 1
WAR Projection/ WAR Dollar Value
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 2.5 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 15.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.0 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 13.0 M
2018 Age 31 1.5 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 10.5M
2019 Age 32 1.0 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 7.5 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M
6 Year Total 11 WAR, 71.5 M Value, 45.5M of the value or 64% comes in the first 3 years.
In this scenario giving him an avg annual of 15 M over 6 years , total 90 M would leave a team exposed to his decline/injury concerns and coming up about 20 M short on value, give or take.
Scenario 2
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 3.0 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 18.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.5 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 16.25 M
2018 Age 31 2.0 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 14 M
2019 Age 32 1.5 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 11.25 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M
6 yr total 13 WAR 85 M Value, with about 52M or 61% of the value coming in the first 3 years.
In this scenario he maintains the 3 WAR level the next two years, and declines gradually from there.
Essentially what I see with Sandoval is there is no upside to a 6 year 90 M deal. That is the absolute Max he would be likely to earn, unless he gets better than he has been the last 3 seasons in terms of both health and performance. Keep in mind I am increasing the value per WAR considerably so that offsets inflation and cost of money, although some would argue I am not increasing the value per WAR quickly enough.
Considering his popularity, post season performance, brand value, etc, if I am the Giants I would consider the 6/90 offer, but absolutely no higher than that. If I am another team there is no way I look at more than 5/75 for Pablo.
But somebody will overpay. My guess is if he has to accept a 5 year deal, he gets 18M a year, or 5/90, and he might get some crazy team to pay him 6/120.
Thats a big range from my Max values of 5/75-6/90, and the range of expected actual contract of 5/90-6/120, but thats the crazy world we live in. 
(ok, it was a big range  )
_________________
Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan
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| moviegeekjn |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:17 pm
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:46 pm
Posts: 353
Location: Phoenix
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At Winter meetings, Ken Rosenthal says that Jon Lester apparently has narrowed his choice between Cubs and Giants...... and looks like it will be the Cubs as of 12/10/14
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Scouting for baseball fans in Nepal
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| misterx |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:06 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 7619
Location: Katy, Tx
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The Marlins and Giants are closing in on a deal that would send third baseman Casey McGehee to San Francisco, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel reports on Twitter. Minor league pitching would likely head back to Miami in the deal.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/m ... trade.html
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Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.
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| EvilJuan |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:13 pm
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:48 am
Posts: 3446
Location: The carpark outside Milliways
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Romo gets a two-year deal for $15M: Giants officially re-sign Romo
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Meet the new FO... Same as the old FO. The bag may be permanent.
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| shoewizard |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:17 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 9702
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Hunter Pence out 6-8 weeks fractured left forearm, from HBP
_________________
Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan
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| shoewizard |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2015 3:24 am
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 9702
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shoewizard wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
TAP wrote:
SF Giants update: 5'11" 245+ lbs Pablo Sandoval seeks at least six-year deal
Here is some back of the Napkin stuff for how I view Pablo.
Over the last 3 seasons he has a weighted avg of 2.9 WAR, (Simple 3,2,1 weighting)
Scenario 1 is realistic , Scenario 2 is Optimistic
Scenario 1
WAR Projection/ WAR Dollar Value
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 2.5 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 15.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.0 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 13.0 M
2018 Age 31 1.5 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 10.5M
2019 Age 32 1.0 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 7.5 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M
6 Year Total 11 WAR, 71.5 M Value, 45.5M of the value or 64% comes in the first 3 years.
In this scenario giving him an avg annual of 15 M over 6 years , total 90 M would leave a team exposed to his decline/injury concerns and coming up about 20 M short on value, give or take.
Scenario 2
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 3.0 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 18.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.5 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 16.25 M
2018 Age 31 2.0 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 14 M
2019 Age 32 1.5 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 11.25 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M
6 yr total 13 WAR 85 M Value, with about 52M or 61% of the value coming in the first 3 years.
In this scenario he maintains the 3 WAR level the next two years, and declines gradually from there.
Essentially what I see with Sandoval is there is no upside to a 6 year 90 M deal. That is the absolute Max he would be likely to earn, unless he gets better than he has been the last 3 seasons in terms of both health and performance. Keep in mind I am increasing the value per WAR considerably so that offsets inflation and cost of money, although some would argue I am not increasing the value per WAR quickly enough.
Considering his popularity, post season performance, brand value, etc, if I am the Giants I would consider the 6/90 offer, but absolutely no higher than that. If I am another team there is no way I look at more than 5/75 for Pablo.
But somebody will overpay. My guess is if he has to accept a 5 year deal, he gets 18M a year, or 5/90, and he might get some crazy team to pay him 6/120.
Thats a big range from my Max values of 5/75-6/90, and the range of expected actual contract of 5/90-6/120, but thats the crazy world we live in.
(ok, it was a big range )
Or he could crash and burn and totally suck and soon become the most hated man in boston.
BR WAR has him -05, -3 batting runs, -9 fielding, and -1 running to go with a .664 OPS
UZR doesn't hate him quite as much, only -5 fielding, so war only -0.1 
Ouch
_________________
Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan
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| dirtygary |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:56 am
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3292
Location: Katy, TX
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Too bad the Giants aren't on the hook of that.
_________________
What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?
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| misterx |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:11 am
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 7619
Location: Katy, Tx
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Tim Brown @TBrownYahoo
Samardzija gets 5 yrs, $90m from Giants.
_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.
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| misterx |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:25 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 7619
Location: Katy, Tx
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The #SFGiants reach an agreement with Johnny Cueto, per @Buster_ESPN
_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.
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| misterx |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:43 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 7619
Location: Katy, Tx
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6 years 130 via Heyman
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Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.
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| David B |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:45 pm
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2002
Location: Portland, OR
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misterx wrote:
6 years 130 via Heyman
So, $10 M more than the Dbacks offer. The contract also has an opt out clause after two years.
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| shoewizard |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:42 pm
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 9702
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I said on Snakepit they could get him for 6/132 and he would take it. The D Backs would have to take Payroll up to about 107 M to be able to afford that...but considering it was 112 on the slop that Towers put together in 2013 and they have the new tv deal, they could have done that.
Giants > D Backs
_________________
Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan
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| Strebor |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:02 am
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Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 10:59 am
Posts: 109
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Arizona should've signed Cueto or Zimmerman and then used the non-Inciarte prospects from the Miller trade to address other needs. They still wouldn't have had a top-15 payroll in that scenario and it would be a clearly superior team to what they have right now.
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| David B |
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Post subject: Re: Giants News
Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:37 pm
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Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2002
Location: Portland, OR
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Even with boosting the payroll, I don't think the Dbacks would be keen on swapping out a first year arb salary (Miller) for a $110-$130 M long term commitment (Zimmerman/Cueto). They're "going for it," but doing so with a budget. They chose Greinke as their big ticket item.
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