D backs as of right now would have teh #4pick. They are 1 game ahead of the Rockies who would have the number 3 pick if the season ended today. Texas looks like a lock for number 1 pick overall. Astros get #2 pick because they didn't sign Aiken. If the D Backs get "hot" they could play themselves out of a top 4pick, but it's unlikely they end up with lower than the 6th overall pick.

Standings thru September 6th

Here are 3rd overall picks of the last 20 years that have played in the majors (ranked by WAR)



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/7/2014.


Here are number 2 overall picks of the last 20 years that have played in the majors



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/7/2014.

And here are the number 4 overall picks of the last 20 years that have played in the majors. Pretty steep dropoff from number 2 and number 3.



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/7/2014.

EDITED DUE TO MY ERROR ON THE DRAFT PICK ORDER. AS POINTED OUT BY BAUER WANNABE HOUSTON GETS #2 PICK. SO D BACKS CURRENTLY HAVE 4TH PICK. IT PROBABLY BEHOOVES THEM TO FALL BEHIND THE ROCKIES AND GET THE 3RD PICK AT LEAST.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

They would have the 4th overall. Houston, thanks to their BS, have the #2 pick.

Thanks for correction. Can you please explain a little more clearly how Houston has #2 pick. Don't doubt you are correct, just didn't quite understand.

Thanks

EDIT: Nevermind, I was asleep at the wheel.



Link

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Through 9/11/2014:
Texas 54-92 (-165 run differential)
Arizona 59-87 (-114 run differential)
Colorado 59-87 (-79 run differential)

Run differential provided for informational purposes only.

I assume the tiebreaker for AZ/CO would be games against each other this season. Arizona is 9-6 versus Colorado so far this season with 4 games remaining in Colorado. If Colorado sweeps those 4 games, CO would take the season series 10-9. Would that give AZ the edge in the 2015 draft assuming a tie in the standings between AZ and CO?

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

At this point, and as these stats show, it's legitimately better for the Dbacks to tank the last nine games. Nothing will be gained from finishing strong for "pride" and "some good momentum heading into next season" (which of course is a fallacy).

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Greinke good, uniforms bad.

Only 1/2 game out of the #1 Pick!

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

Nick Piecoro: Diamondbacks in race for top draft pick

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

The magic number is now one.

This is interesting.

Evil Juan (in a post at the end of yesterday's GameDay thread) questioned the organization's track record with high picks. He specifically mentioned "top 3" picks, of which - I hasten to point out - AZ has actually only had two and, for my money, spent them well. J-Up (#1 in 2005) and Trevor Bauer (#3 in 2011).

The larger issue, in my view, is the organization's track record with top-ten picks. It isn't encouraging.

First, a recap of first-round history: AZ has had (by my unofficial count) 27 first round draft choices, including "supplemental" picks.

There were two years the org had no first round pick:
1998: Lost the first round pick to the KC Royals as compensation for signing Jay Bell (for which Gylene Hoyle will be eternally grateful - and of course for which ALL Dback fans will be grateful as Jay scored the winning run in their only World Championship game).
2000: Lost the first round pick to the Atlanta Braves as compensation for signing -0.3 WAR/$3.425mm salary Russ Springer. The hapless Braves wasted that pick (#29) on some chump named Adam Wainright.

So back to the ACTUAL top picks - and I have arbitrarily set the bar at top-ten picks. So all Dback draft picks that were between #1 and #10 since inception. . . because my recollection (which is significantly less than 20-20) is that they haven't used them wisely.

There have been five. I already noted Upton and Bauer. No complaint from me about either, despite the organization's mishandling (in my view) of each asset.

The other three?

1999: Corey Myers, SS out of Desert Vista HS in Phoenix. Seriously?
2010: Barret Loux, RHP out of Texas A&M. Couldn't sign him. Really?
2011: Archie Bradley, RHP out of Broken Arrow HS in BA, OK. Fading, but not written off.

So, yeah. Not exactly inspiring. . . unless you limit yourself to their top three picks, both of which were solid, in my view. And Bradley is still out there.

Let's just say I'm not holding my breath, but am hoping for a nice surprise. It hasn't been as disastrous as my memory would insist.

The real issue is what they do with these assets after they draft them. Upton and Bauer were wasted and Bradley still has command issues. (My opinion only, YMMV.)

2011 shows what a crap shoot the draft is. Re Bauer, the problem started with giving him the idea that he could do it "his way", regardless of results, making it questionable why they picked him in the first place.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

Steve Gilbert: The Rangers win tonight means the #Dbacks own No. 1 pick in next year's draft. 2nd time in franchise history they'll have MLB worst record.

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

almost... Magic # is 1

Rockies are 3 GB, so in the unlikely scenario where we sweep StL and they get swept its a tie and that goes to the Rockies.

So we're close to clinching, but need 1 more blowout loss to clinch.

I think Cahill can make that happen

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

The #1 pick is ours!!!!

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

Will Daz be the guy?

Its looking like (albeit VERY early) either Duke RHP Michael Matuella or Prep OF Daz Cameron...the potential of Cameron may be too much to pass on.

Pitchers are such a crapshoot (more so than hitters anyway) that, all things being equal, I'd rather take Cameron if that's the choice. Hopefully the Stew Crew (I feel like I should trademark that, LOL) will make a well-researched decision.

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Greinke good, uniforms bad.

I tend to agree with you. Once you also figure in the injury factor that ultimately comes with pitchers, Matuella would have to be far and away the better prospect. Not sure that's the case right now, although there is a lot of time for that to change.