Details available at the AZ Snakepit

SUMMARY here.

* Regardless of how payroll increases after 2016, using the 100M number for starting point, I come up with 12M still available for 2016.

*Depending on the rate of payroll increase between 5-7% over the next 3 seasons, aka "The Window", they still have 56-62 M they can commit to 2016-2018

*Of the entire 6 year window looked at here then the range of available dollars to commit for 2016-2021 is 133-168M

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

A $100 million payroll is going to leave the team in the bottom third of MLB in every likelihood.

Arizona's final payroll for 2015 was ~$79 million, which was good for 28th out of 30 and only ahead of the two Florida teams. The two contenders in the bottom third - Houston, Pittsburgh - are largely there due to multi-year tanking efforts. The rest of the teams in the basement are somewhere between rebuilding and flat-out not trying to win.

I know.

Seems like they should be able to go to 110 at least. I can understand why they feel like they had to go for it now with Greinke and the Miller trade. But giving up all that cost controlled talent for Shelby Miller will be nothing more than the overpay that it is that still doesn't get them there without one more pretty big move.

I was advocating they take it up to 110 and sign Cueto for 6/132.......OR they should just accept the fact they made a huge mistake with Tomas and go spend money on another top outfield bat.

But as per usual, they have mis read where they are and moved a bunch of young talent only to most likely still come up short of their goal. This quote makes one rather sick



MLB Trade Rumors link

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Teams are still taking advantage of our stupid GM. The name on the door plate changed, but it's business as usual for rival GM's.

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"Tomorrow is not promised to any of us." - Kirby Puckett

I found this while clicking around MLBTR. I found it interesting, explains how payroll is calculated by a team (in this case, the Seattle Mariners).

http://tinyurl.com/Understandingpayroll

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

Good stuff Justin

In a discussion over at AZ Snakepit on another thread I noted that I probably left off a couple million that I can't see due the factors mentioned in that article.

They could also be squirreling some money for Goldy and Pollock extensions

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Yep I ate some crow when they signed Greinke.

Was hoping to have eaten some more by now.

Joe Public now thinks the DBACKS are Big Spenders and playoff contenders.

Baseball people still see a team under budget and a 3rd place pick in the division.

Staying under your bottom of the barrel budget and having people talking playoffs is brilliant on the marketing side of things. But lets see how that plays out on the field. This team still has some holes to fill.

Cardinals football coach said it best at halftime of the Browns game "Boys your either pretenders or contenders"

Which is it DBACKS?

Seems we hold a similar general sentiment - it makes no sense to go for it halfway. The Club should be over-budget on payroll the next 3 years to give themselves the best chance to win, and then pull back to under-budget for a few years after that to bring the biz back into alignment. The PHX team is not equipped to compete with the LA team every year, the financial realities make that highly unlikely. But they can certainly put their eggs into windows and contend during those times while reining in the payroll during others.

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

The problem they will have to execute that strategy is trading away too many pre arb cost controlled assets. You cant keep budget low AND be competitive without guys like Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair contributing to the major league roster before they hit arbitration and free agency

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Who said anything about being competitive while under-budget?

This FO has shown a clear disregard for the sound strategies advanced for building a healthy organization capable of producing sustained success. Why keep advocating for what we all know is the superior pathway to success? It's not like nobody has brought this to the FO's attention, but they're just not sold on taking that approach.

I've given up on that dream, but maybe KenKen could get behind being competitive with a large payroll for a window followed by under-budget for a window afterwards - and the level of competitiveness during the under-budget window is of secondary concern.

It's not ideal, but at least you get 3 years of legitimate contention, even if it does come with the cost of 3 years of no contention. It would still be way better than 6 years of .500 ball and never holding a lead in the division after the all-star break.

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

It's hard to tell which elements of the FO are to blame, though there are a couple of constants here. Arizona's only had a winning record three times since Kendrick seized power and one of those was by the slimmest margin possible while playing a full 162 games. Since '05, the D-backs have had two good seasons and been somewhere between mediocre and a dumpster fire the other nine years. Arizona has cycled through several GMs and several managers in the last decade, but Hall and Kendrick have only seen their authority increase for reasons known only to the rest of the ownership group.

Moore was hired by the Royals less than a decade ago. He's taken Kansas City from a 100-loss team to the WS in that span of time. Once their window opened, ownership stepped up and increased the resources available to him. Compared to Arizona, Kansas City has an older ballpark, smaller media market, and they still managed to spend $128 million last year.

It would seem that KenKen is clearly the problem, with DH the front man and cheerleader extraordinaire.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

I've wanted to reply with some form of "I agree" to so many of these posts.

Bottom line: we as Dbacks fans have very, very little hope of sustained success as long as KK owns the team. Could be 3 years, could be 30 (OK, he's an older guy, so maybe not 30). We can only hope that the next owner is a Jim Crane-type, where he puts smart baseball people in place and commits to their plan for long-term, repeatable success.

It's a wonder that KK is the way he is with this team, because he seems to genuinely LOVE baseball. You'd think a guy like that would see the error of his process, whether in a vacuum or by looking around at the other 29 teams and seeing what's working.

If I had the money to buy the team, I'd see if I could lure Billy Beane out of Oakland (this is assuming I'm a billionaire, LOL), give him a reasonable (flexible!) budget to work with, and get out of his way. Oh, and I'd bring back the 2001 uniforms as the standard uniforms and never mess with them, too.

EDIT: All this being said, I'm going into this season with optimism for the first time since before the Towers Era. I'm going to try and enjoy this "window" for as long as it lasts, even though it probably means we'll be a Dumpster fire for some years after the window closes.

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Greinke good, uniforms bad.

I'm also excited, but like a lot of other people here I'm not sure if what they did is enough.

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

I found this little slideshow clicking around, it talks about Major Leaguers that have had deferred payments (KG24, DJ2, etc). I think their 8th one is in error, since to my knowledge Gilkey is no longer on our books...

http://www.sportingnews.com/list/469112 ... er-ramirez

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

Not buying this...

http://arizonasports.com/story/550614/arizona-diamondbacks-la-russa-team-is-built-to-win-now-in-the-future/

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

“You know where I think our question mark is, is just frame of mind,” might be the whole story, the mind being Tony's.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

I actually read that as, "I think you know where our question mark is. It's just an opinion, though." I just thought he was avoiding answering...

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

Thought this was pretty interesting. There are going to be some tough decisions for them to make around 2018 or 2019

http://insidethezona.com/2016/02/contention-window-exit-strategies/

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

CLOSING IN ON OPENING DAY PAYROLL: SHOE EATS CROW

One of the big criticisms I had during the offseason was that Derek Hall had indicated that the team payroll would be about 100M, but with the deferrals of Greinke's salary, the team appeared to be well under that number, anywhere from 10-12 M by varying estimates. And technically they are. However, I have always said that when presented with new information, one needs to be willing to change their position, and even admit they were wrong.

And that is the case here. Whats really embarrassing is that this isn't new information. It's a DH quote from a Nick Piecoro article from Feb 23 that I somehow missed, and never saw quoted anywhere here at the Pit previously. It might have been..I just didn't see it. In fairness, I closed on my new house on Feb 24th, moved in on Feb 26th, and then had to go to Seattle for a week on Feb 28th. I missed a lot those 10 days. But thats an excuse. I should have known this rule. Actually I think I did at one time but forgot.



* Note, 31 M is the salary. The Signing Bonus is prorated over life of contract, in this case 18m/6 = 3M, hence the oft quoted figure of 34M

Yeah, that pretty much explains it. The money is already funded, so thats why they have to count it against this year's payroll as well.

Baseball Reference currently shows the payroll at 99.9 M, or exactly 100, (with Greinke at 34M) which was the stated target budget, and about 105-106 the next two seasons. The commitments aren't going to change this year, and any differences in opening day roster are all pre arb players, so no impact to the bottom line. Next year and the year after of course arb eligible players could change and they could make more FA signings and/.or trades. But 2016 seems pretty set right at the 100 M number.

So.........

This does change quite a bit the perception of how they used their money during the off season.

It also explains why they might have overpaid for Segura. They were really desperate to off load at least some of Hill's contract, and it's no coincidence that the amount off loaded brings them exactly to 100 M.

Mysteries solved....crow eaten. I got this wrong.

Sorry to D Backs org and all readers.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan