What needs to be done between now and spring training?

Im not sure I can do another season of DBACKS Baseball the Climb to Mnt .500 with Bert.

Im already just a once or twice a week fan.

Starting Pitching is the easy answer but Im just not seeing the sure fire difference maker. Talked to a scout about the kid from Japan and he laughed. Just going to be another "if we didnt sign him someone else would have" mistake. Not the same as the $68 million dollar one but a costly mistake that this team cant afford to make.

What would you do?

I'm still formulating my plan. Not quite ready to post it.

But keep in mind that Derek Hall indicated Payroll will be around 100 M in 2016 , maybe a little more if baseball operations twists their arms.

But you can't just look at 2016. Here is what I worked out based off of projected payroll and projected available. Thinks could look a little better if they accelerated payroll a bit faster. But keep in mind that the D Backs had the biggest percentage payroll CUT in 2015 of any team in the majors , and the 2016 100 M level is actually less than 2014. So anything more than token inflationary increase on a year by year basis will be a "I'll believe it when I see it"

In the past I pushed back on you a bit for criticizing them for being cheap. With the debt they had and the revenues they had they were justified to keep payroll where it was. But I don't feel that way any more. They could do more than 100 M in 2016.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Much more. Either they want to compete or they dont.

Problem is I dont think there are answers out there that can be fixed FA wise that are a sure thing and not a waste of money.

At this point in time you have to be a better horse trader than the other guys and Im not sure that can still be done anymore. Unless KT gets hired again.

Its time to bight the bullet. Go all in Houston mode. Suck for 3-4 years and make a run. Have a plan and stick to it. This one player away bullshit and thats what it is BULLSHIT is getting old. Im so tired of mediocre baseball. I cant take it anymore.

Give me bad baseball and a plan. I can live with that.

They've been saying one player away for so long that it just sounds like a joke when they say it

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

I'd think one player per win would be more realistic. Leave it to DH to promote unfounded optimism, currently based on TLR's success before he wisely retired at the top of his mountain.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

I must not have been watching or listening when TLR, DS, or DJW said they are one player away. I think I've heard, on a number of occasions ( I could be wrong), them say they think they have a strong nucleus to build on, or words to that effect. I think they are fully aware of the shortcomings of the pitching staff going forward and probably believe, although they won't admit publicly, it will take until at least 2017 to get it close to where they think it should be.

The way we've played we deserve to be a .500 or above team" -- DH on the radio.

"That window we are right there right now to be contenders and win championships" DH

Also says they are going to attack the offseason add pitching.

On the one hand they say they are all in to winning now.

On the other hand they say next years payroll will come in at $100 mil.

They saved lots of money this year on deals they made to add another piece. They didnt add one.

They have a HUGE TV deal kicking in and revenues have never been higher some say $250-$300 million.

Im one that doesnt want the Japanese pitcher but cant wait for the offseason spin on how we were in on him til the very end.

Jaded ya Im jaded its been a long time since Ive seen good baseball.

Im waiting on Shoes plan to give me some sort of hope because the hope the DBACKS are selling I quit buying long ago.

1999-2002 produced outstanding baseball for Arizona, with just a tease in 2007 and 2011.

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

Ironically, 1999-2002 is when I lived in the valley. Hmmmmmmm

Time to move back. Let me know where you'd like me to find you a home.

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“Baseball is drama with an endless run and an ever-changing cast.”
― Joe Garagiola

It's not impossible to be entertaining and lose productively in the process. Give the fans what they want. First is winning championships; but if that's not likely, at least be entertaining. So if the team isn't going to contend and there is the flexibility to adjust the team without sacrificing long-term success, design the roster to lose shoot-outs. Trumbo was actually PERFECT for this Club right now…

But seriously, my biggest complaint is the stuff that's within the FO's control - seeing a plan through. They had it all laid out for them, but they lacked the patience and fortitude, so they don't deserve it.

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

Go Rockies style then?

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Kevin Towers, not smarter than the so called experts

Nah,

Just another Yasmany, but this time the Pacific pseudo ace version.After if DH calls it a silk purse, surely that's what it is, even if it looks and smells like a sows ear.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

He's probably referring to Pythagorean won loss. The D Backs have scored more runs than they've allowed, 654-646 which based on the pythag theory, their "true talent" record should/could be 74-72 right now.

However there is an even more detailed way to look at it. Baseball Prospectus creates a report of adjusted standings, that suggests based on the components of offense and defense, i.e. hits, walks, k's, extra base hits, etc etc...how many runs a typical team would score and allow. Given THOSE underlying stats, they THEN figure out the adjusted won loss. Using that metric....the D Backs are then slightly worse. They come in at 71.5 W- 74.5 L, or a .483 W%. Thats slightly better than their actual record of 69-77, most of which can be explained by their record in one run ball games: 19-24


So most likely the D Backs "True Talent Level" is probably around 4 games below .500 over a full season, or a 78 win team. They may fall several wins shy of that "True Talent Level" this year, but not by much.

Fangraphs also has their version of expected or adjusted won loss Here They have the D Backs slightly worse than BP, by about a game.

For me, the first part of figuring out how to get where I'm going is to figure out my starting point, and 77-78 Win level team would be my particular starting point. Thats about a 3-4 win improvement over where they started the season on paper, so while not quite the smashing success the PR machine would like you to think, it IS forward progress.

If the team is really basing their starting point on being an 83 or 84 "True Talent" team, then they are in big trouble. Hopefully thats just PR speak, and not what TLR and his team of evaluators REALLY think or are basing their off season plans on.

Then again.....the way they went after Aroldis Chapman suggests they really think they are that close.

_________________
Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Outline of off season plan:

Guys....this is fluid, and a rough draft. I reserve the right to make adjustments prior to the offseason truly starting. But apparently I need to address this now. so here goes. I've outlined above what I believe our starting point is. I;'ve also shown the payroll they have available.

1.) Hello Captain Obvious: This team needs a TOR type starter, or at least a guy that gives you 30+ Starts and around 190-200 IP with above league average run prevention. No matter who develops and who doesn't from the group of young starters they have, they need this type of pitcher.

My Choice is Jordan Zimmerman. I keep coming back to him. I think he will be the best bang for the buck. His actual production over the last 3 seasons is about on par with Cueto's, and a bit behind Price but not by quite as much as most people think or the market will value.

Greinke, if he opts out, will probably go for 5/160 or 6/190 or something like that.

Price probably gets close to the Scherzer deal.....although by my reckoning his true value is maybe 5-10% more than the Lester deal, or IOW about 6/170

Zimmerman I believe can be gotten for 5/120, or 6/140. Thats less than Cueto will make...(unless Cueto is hurt) and I think Zimmerman is fine. His velocity is only off 0.8 MPH from last year and he's still averaging 93 MPH. He's got decent to good GB rates depending on the year, and if he loses a little more steam on the FB I believe he has the ability to go a little more GB/Contact oriented and continue to be successful.

I would not invest money in Maeda.....too much of an unknown, and while Mike Leake is a fine innings eater, thats all he really is. There is not much upside to Leake other than perhaps getting 200 IP at 110 ERA+. That has value to be sure...but it's not winning you any pennants unless you have a Zimmerman out in front of him.

So Zimmerman is my guy. Won't be cheap. 5/100 doesn't get it done, thanks to stupid Red Sox giving Porcello 4/82. But a 5 year deal with avg annual of 24 M gets it done I believe.......maybe have to stretch with vesting options on year 6 or something.

2.) Rest of starting Pitching: Corbin is the only guy I'm writing in Pen at the moment.
Despite recent struggles, I'd almost use pen for Robbie Ray...but he's in pencil for right now.

Hellickson is written in disappearing ink.....he needs to be traded. You won't get as high ranked prospects as you gave up to get him, but sunk cost. Hellickson , if all goes right for him, gives you 180 innings of 4.25 ERA. For 5+ million per year in arb wages.....they are better off giving the starts to younger, less expensive pitchers.

Tough call on Ruby...but bottom line is he doesn't have a pitch to deal with lefties. He's arb eligible. He probably gets another shot at rotation, but if he doesn't come up with something to get lefties out during spring training, I think you have to send him to the pen and let him be a right handed specialist. Tough call because you don't really want to be paying arb wages for that.

Chase Anderson: I like him as a reliever, and I have often advocated making him the closer. I think he easily picks up 2 MPH in the bullpen, and he has the command to come in and throw strikes and get you 3 outs in the 9th. I can see Anderson having a couple of really good save years in the pen and then you can trade him as he gets expensive.....channeling early Billy Beane here.

So that leaves you Zimmerman, Corbin, maybe Ray and Ruby. You see how the rest of your young starters are doing in spring and ride the hot hands for the 5th and 6th spots in the rotation. They have good potential options in Blair, Shipley, Bradley....maybe even Godley, and perhaps they keep Chacin around. With a guy like ZIM out front....that gives you a lot of good options behind him.

3.) Bullpen: So....in my plan you have strengthened the pen considerably by sending Anderson there. They probably need an upgrade to the depth from the left side.....but Chafin and Reynolds are good options....just tough not to run them down. Why is Houston able to get good results out of Tony Sipp and Joe Thatcher and we couldn't ? ....I digress.

They probably want to trade for some left handed relief depth. But if they can't they should have the room to invest a couple million if they need too. Not the best use of resources, I'll admit. But it sucks when you don't have an even semi reliable lefty to go to. Keith Hessler says hello.

Ziegler/Anderson/Hudson/Chafin/Reynolds is a good foundation for a decent pen.....with plenty other right handed options. It's probably time for Collmenter to move on though. That won't be popular.

4.) Infield: You have to get Hill off the roster. He does not get any more playing time if I'm making the calls. There are no easy upgrades for the middle infield offense issue. But the good news all around the infield is they are all so young, and there is a good chance young players improve. So with Lamb at 3rd, and Ahmed/Owings/Drury manning SS/2b, you have some additional upside offensively. Hopefully better than 2015 SS/2b offense. They have Gosselin for depth at utility as well.....so I'm fine there.

5.) Outfield you keep it like it is and hope an off season conditioning program for Tomas improves his defense and his stamina. Can't fix his plate discipline easily though. It was a problem in Cuba and he was exposed the 2nd/3rd time around the league. But they invested in him, and you have to keep giving him at least 400 PA and see if he improves.

Pollock/Peralta/Inciarte give you the luxury to keep trying him. Brito is nice depth too, and I've been convinced he has more upside than I originally thought.

6.) Catcher: Nice offensive bursts in 2015 for Castillo and Salty. But I'm not so sure they are doing a great job calling pitches and controlling the game. Slalty is a free agent. If they don't re sign him, they need to identify the best possible defensive option and sign that guy. Probably 2-3 million there as well.

So roughly 24 M to Zimmerman, and another 3-6 M to buttress the bullpen and backup catcher.....thats most of the maximum 35 M they have to spend in 2016.

With Zimmerman out front of the rotation, more bullpen depth, and improvement from the young infielders, this team could improve 6-7 games or so from their 77-78 true talent level base they are starting from.

If they can get to an 83-84 win team on paper.....then they are getting close. It would take good health of course...any key injuries and the depth isnt there to pick it up.

They gotta get a pitcher now though. The 2017 FA class sucks. If they don't sign one now, they will be forced to give up a lot of young hitting talent to get one.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Very well said. I really like the choice of Zimmerman. As far as rotation I think after the TOR arm and Corbin is to see what we've got in the minors let them shoot it out in camp. I'm not sure what options are like on RDL, Ray and such. Hellickson is sunk cost in my mind along with Hill. Basically reworking the entire rotation outside of PC. I think a lot of the BP's struggles are due to starters going so short and this must end. I really hope some of the young guys get a shot and not just roster spots given to PV's like has been our problem in the past.

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"Right at Peralta in left, it's over his head and gone!" 7 rows back, that was our great PBP broadcaster Steve B.

You sold me Im all in on Zimmerman!

Which means the DBACKS will sign Madea.

My guy says he hangs his slider too much and will get pounded over here.

Another scout told Gammons this.

“he can pitch, he’s got a good curveball, but he’s slight, may have trouble pitching every fifth day after going once a week in Japan and is more a backend guy.”

Perfect then. We will sign him because you know if we didnt someone else would have.

Dont forget boys and girls we get to pay a posting fee for his services too!

I have been ruminating on Shoe's excellent post for weeks. I don't have any problem with the path laid out, although I worry that J Zim might be an inappropriate risk for the club at this point in the process.

If Jordan Zimmerman is the next Carl Hubbell or Orel Hershiser, well then hell, yeah! But he's 30 next season. How many bullets are left in that arm? What if he's really Ed Figueroa or (oh, the humanity!) Doug Rau? That is a tough contract for this organization to eat. Especially an org that might be more than "one piece away" (as I fear).

As Shoe noted, Zim's fastball velo was fractionally lower this year. First year of his career he didn't touch 96. FB HR rate jumped. I see he also threw a LOT more breaking pitches this year. All this coincides with a degradation in his results. Big jump in his FIP/corresponding bit of a dip in his ERA+. (both numbers the worst since his sophomore season)

I don't know - nothing totally damning in my view. But worrisome to consider a 5-6 year contract for a pitcher entering his age 30 season who has thrown right at 1,000 IP over the past five years. If AZ was not stuck with the ugly Tomas contract I would be open to the reasonable gamble on Zimmerman.

Having said all that - probably the most important factor is that I don't see the Dodgers allowing AZ to sign anyone like Zim. AZ can't compete with LAD for FAs. If I'm LAD, I play that card early and often.

As for the rest of the roster. . . did I mention I hate the Tomas contract? If he can adjust to a league that has adjusted to him, we'll lose him just as he gets REALLY valuable. If he can't, we're stuck with a VERY expensive mediocre DH. (at least he's not an over-the-hill, injury-prone 'proven veteran' of which the previous GM was so fond) But what's done is done. So that's a topic for another thread.

eh, that's enough for now. Agree with Shoe that a TOR guy is the key missing piece. Still looking for a reasonable solution. . .

I think your caution committing to a Zim is understandable and reasonable. Many people share that opinion. I think he can bounce back though.

Price is out of our Market. He just is.

Cueto is an even bigger risk than Zim in my mind.

If everything goes just right for Jeff Samardzjia, he is a league average pitcher.

Mike Leake is a nice pitcher, but has almost as many IP as ZIM and a career 101 ERA+, (105 last 3 years, career best 112 this year)

It's not so much that I think ZIM is the best thing since sliced bread, but I would rather have him fro 5/120 than Leake for 5/80 or Samadzjia for 5/75. He still has more upside than either of those guys to give you a 4 WAR season. He's got 3 of them, and has not been below 2.8 in any of the last 5 seasons.

Leake has one 3.0 WAR season, and next best is 2.2

Samardzjia had 3.7 WAR in 2014, but collapsed to 0.3 in 2015 and never reached 2 WAR in any season prior to 2014.

And the other options are mostly guys that are (or were) beating the heck out of their peripherals with no prior indicated skill or history to be able to do so on a consistent basis. Check out this post from Sept 1 HERE

SO is their risk with ZIM ? Absolutely. ANY pitcher signed for that much and that long has a ton of risk. It's 50/50 at best it pays off. I'm aware of that. But the alternatives are worse in my opinion.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

I have no misconception that you thought Zim is the best thing since sliced bread. . . much less that you thought he was risk-free or even low-risk. I have come to know you better than that.



Full agreement. I am finding no other acceptable TOR options and agree that Zim is the most attractive (least objectionable?) risk/reward TOR profile available.

In hindsight, it appears I did not write clearly enough that it is the Tomas contract that is hindering my acceptance of a Zimmerman opportunity, not the Zim contract itself.

But I also confess I am struggling to accept the LaRussa-led acceleration of AZ's post-KT recovery. I still believe a more rational approach would have been to hoard controllable athletic and financial assets this year (2015) and then make the push for 2016. So I acknowledge my reluctance to accept the current roster commitments and then add to them with a 5-6/120-140 contract for a pitcher's age 30-34/35 age seasons.

I am beginning to realize that if I stop arguing with reality and accept the current roster, I can probably get to the acceptance that a Zimmerman gamble is reasonable.

It's just not the way I would have done it. (gotta get the last word with "reality" - hahahaha)

(Plus, this speculation is all moot if the Dodgers decide they want to pre-empt such an AZ signing.