The difference between a single with nobody on base, and a single and a successful steal is about 0.2 runs.
But getting caught is such a negative, as you lose both an out and a baserunner, that unless you succeed about 75%-80% of the time, it's generally not worth the effort, and in fact can be very damaging. Of course, having certain players steal when it's least expected can greatly increase the odds of getting there safely, but teams too often steal when expected and don't when not, so the element of surprise is lost.
And as for the oft stated positive effect of distraction caused to the pitcher by a stolen base threat on first causes....this has been studied in depth. the main advantage is because of the threat of a steal, the first baseman holds and you open up the hole. But other than that, there is no evidence to suggest that it actually helps the batters.
That was a great link Shoe. I can see where ive been wrong when yelling at the TV for not trying to steal.. thanks bud. Keep em coming. I learn more everyday
Kyle
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