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NL West LH Starters
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 2:46 pm    Post subject: NL West LH Starters Reply with quote

NL West LH Starters

Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA

Out of 7 potential LHSP in the West, we have two of the top three. That leaves one ( Zito ) that's kinda scary...the rest..not so much.

5 out of 20 ( 25% ) of our division rival's potential SPs are LH.

We have Drew, O-Dawg, and Tracy as everyday LHB ( or switch ) and Callaspo, Clark, DaVanon and Montero on the bench.

There's no way that I would be trading away any LHB at this point and would be trying to add LHB ( in LF ) if anything.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I agree that Tracy being left handed is on the things you put in the plus column, I can see plenty of games with 5 left handed bats in the lineup.

Montero and Davanon are going to play plenty, and of course Hudson, Drew and Tracy, makes 5 out of 8 position players batting from the left side in probably close to half the teams games.
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levski
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

what we need to do is trade jackson to the jackson 5s, then move tracy to 1b and sign robin ventura to play 3rd. lefties galore. it'll feel like cuba...
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Wells SD
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA

Updated to include Wells.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 11:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Drew, will have decent splits against lefties, becuase he adjusts to them, and naturally thinks closed. Chad T. will be okay if the lefty is under some stress. It'll be important for him to stay small against them. O'dog was at his Boggsian best against lefties last year. I credit his approach against lefties last year, the reason for his season, and maybe for the launching of a force.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

foulpole wrote:
Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Wells SD
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA

Updated to include Wells.


The percentage of lefty starters is higher in the other divisions. Of course they play division rivals more than any single division, but in total they will play more games outside the division than it. Outside the division, approximately 33% of the starters they face will be lefty's, and overall, for the entire season, approximately 30-31% of all at bats will come against lefty's, starters and relievers combined. (Last year it was 29% for the D backs.....but that number will be a little higher this year.)
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So with approx. 70% of team PAs coming against RHPs, you gotta love the LH/switch hitters...
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Definitely a good thing to have.
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Free Tony Clark!!! Wink
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tmar
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Code:

         LEFTEES   RIGHTEES   
1B   CLARK   S   .401   .696   
1B   JACKSON   R   .810   .808   
2B   CALLASPO   S   .937   .585   T
2B   HUDSON   S   .912   .775   
SS   DREW   L   .995   .805   
SS               
3B   TRACY   L   .627   .866   
3B               
C   HAMMOCK   R         
C   MONTERO   L         
C   SNYDER   R   .718   .804   T
LF   BYRNES   R   .961   .728   
LF   HAIRSTON   R   .874   1.053   T
CF   DAVANON   S   .550   .877   
CF   YOUNG    R   .736   .957   T
RF   QUENTIN   R   .691   .932   


Just because I'm bored I was looking at how some of our potentials have faired against L/R handed pitchers <the T to the right means I used Tuson stats>. Some of the stats are very limited <like Callaspo> as they didn't spend much time in AAA or MLB and I couldn't find AA splits.

The one thing that seems to stick out to me is that we have 2 players who are equal opportunity hitters, Hairston & Jackson. With Q's seemed weakness against leftees <from both his MLB & AAA stats last year>.

BTW any advice on why my Excel columns copy across so badly?
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tracy's 3 year split against lhp is 228/282/349. I haven't seen any evidence that he can hit major league lhp. I still think he needs to sit against at least some of the lhp's.

Lhp induce more balls to third base side. Maybe when Davis, RJ or Webb (due to his gb not his handedness) is going against a lhp, Tracy should sit and Callaspo play.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah....if tracy could defend like eric chavez, his inability to hit lefties would be much less of an issue. But last year in Tucson Callaspo hit righties far better than lefties and is probably not an ideal platoon partner.

.946 vs. RHP
.715 vs. LHP

Unfortunately Barden didn't hit lefties worth a snot either

.935 vs RHP
.598 vs. LHP

The best chance for a platoon partner for Tracy in 2007 is Robbie Hammock. Last year in Tucson:

.850 vs.RHP
.882 vs.LHP

and as a major leaguer Hammock was

.731 vs RHP
.804 vs LHP

The best solution to the Tracy problem, if he isn't hitting lefties any better this season, would be to start platooning him with Hammock. Not so much that you kill his trade value, but definitely against the tougher lefties. Keep his rate stats afloat and then hope he mashes righties enough to up that trade value.

Unless of course he starts to defend like Chavez..... Wink
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Maybe when Davis, RJ or Webb (due to his gb not his handedness) is going against a lhp, Tracy should sit and Callaspo play.


I don't have a problem with that especially against tough lefties. I am an advocate of some platooning at all positions.
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hammock is also an option.

I have not researched the topic but I do find it hard to belive that reverse splits hold up over the long haul. Once these guys get more exposure to LHPs I'm confident that trend will correct.
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stu
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Callaspo's OPF at AAA againstt lehp, bad as it is, is still around 100 points above Tracy's. Major v. minor of course, but I'm betting small sample here for Callaspo against lhp at Tucson.

Also the main point is to get better defense at third for pitchers who are going to need it.
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 3:16 pm    Post subject: Re: NL West LH Starters Reply with quote

foulpole wrote:
NL West LH Starters

Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA

Out of 7 potential LHSP in the West, we have two of the top three. That leaves one ( Zito ) that's kinda scary...the rest..not so much.

5 out of 20 ( 25% ) of our division rival's potential SPs are LH.

We have Drew, O-Dawg, and Tracy as everyday LHB ( or switch ) and Callaspo, Clark, DaVanon and Montero on the bench.

There's no way that I would be trading away any LHB at this point and would be trying to add LHB ( in LF ) if anything.




Lowery scares the hell out of me.... he will be nasty
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:33 pm    Post subject: Re: NL West LH Starters Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:

Lowery scares the hell out of me.... he will be nasty


Feel free to chime in on the order of "nasty"ness.

Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Wells SD
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA
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NJ-DBACKS-FAN
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:46 pm    Post subject: Re: NL West LH Starters Reply with quote

NJ-DBACKS-FAN wrote:
foulpole wrote:
NL West LH Starters

Johnson AZ
Zito SF
Davis AZ
Francis CO
Lowery SF
Wolf LA
Hendrickson LA

Out of 7 potential LHSP in the West, we have two of the top three. That leaves one ( Zito ) that's kinda scary...the rest..not so much.

5 out of 20 ( 25% ) of our division rival's potential SPs are LH.

We have Drew, O-Dawg, and Tracy as everyday LHB ( or switch ) and Callaspo, Clark, DaVanon and Montero on the bench.

There's no way that I would be trading away any LHB at this point and would be trying to add LHB ( in LF ) if anything.




Lowery scares the hell out of me.... he will be nasty


brain fart here! hahaha Embarassed i was thinking matt cain.....

lowery is ok not nasty......
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
...Also the main point is to get better defense at third for pitchers who are going to need it.


Pitching and defense wins championships baby!!!
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also the main point is to get better defense at third for pitchers who are going to need it.

So basically you are saying that Callaspo is probably going to be at least as productive against lefties and perhaps more so, at the plate, when compared to Tracy, and it is also assumed he would be a better defender there as well.

I think you make alot of sense Stu. Callaspo probably can't be worse than Tracy vs. lefties and at least you get the better defense.

So that leaves the question, how good is Callaspo at 3rd, and does he have the arm? Anyone have any info on his play at 3rd? I have no idea.
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B. O. N. D.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trying to dig-up some scouting reports on Callaspo... still looking, but here:

Quote:
Alberto Callaspo

It's true that the Diamondbacks already have a bevy of infield options at the major league level, but Callaspo's simply too good not to get the call. He's hit .340 for Tucson, and has been the hardest professional player to strike out over the past two years. To top it all off, he can play either shortstop or second base very well, and even logged a few innings at third during his brief stint with the parent club last week. He's good enough to start for several big league clubs, and there's little doubt that he'll return shortly.


So, Callaspo would save some Ks, obviously... but I don't remember how he did at 3b last season...? Confused

I'm pretty sure he's got a plus arm to go along with that glove.

Quote:
He has spent most of his minor league career at second base in deference to Aybar, but Callaspo has the range and arm strength to handle shortstop, where he spent most of 2004. In December, Arizona acquired Orlando Hudson to start at second base, but Callaspo could make the big league club as a middle-infield backup. He's a career .315/.362/.424 hitter with 24 homers, 294 RBIs and 73 steals in 544 minor league games.

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levski
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't follow this thread. What does it matter how many left handed starters there are in the nl west?
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stu
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been asked that question in a different context. The question that stumped me was why do people talk about the greatest lhp and the greatest rhp pitcher. You don't do that for any other position.

As the Callaspo, he played 5 innings at 3b for the Dbacks last year. I think arm strength once you get the majors is overrated for a 3b. The ball comes so quickly to the 3b that he can plany and step towards the base on just about every play. There are not as many difficult throws such as the 2b's pivot when starts with his back or side to 1b or the ss throw from the hole.

In little league, arm strength as a criteria to distinguish between 2b and 3b. By the time you get the majors, just about anyone who has played 2b or ss has the arm to play. IMO, quickness is more important than arm strength.

As we discussed, Matt Williams was a ss in collge. So was Mike Schmidt. Brooks started as a 2b. Counsel was one the best 3b I ever saw. Without having seen him play 3b that much, my guess would be that Callaspo would be a lot like Cousnel and be an outstanding 3b.
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
I don't follow this thread. What does it matter how many left handed starters there are in the nl west?


We're going to face opposing starters for more innings than relievers.

There are more RHPs and RHBs than LHPs and LHBs. There are more effective RHPs than effective LHPs. Splits tell us that RHBs fair better against LHPs and LHBs do better against RHPs. Since LHPs are often less effective than RHPs it may help LHBs splits against LHPs.

I have not spent the time to do a historical study but am going to assume that shoe's number of 30% ( it's probably pretty darn close ) of the IPs that we will face are going to be against LHPs and the remaining 70% against RHPs.

So, with 2.3 times as many PAs against righties than lefties it's pretty bitchin' to have a lot of LHBs on the 25 man so we can load the batting order with LHBs against RHPs. It's also pretty cool to be able to load up with RHB against LHPs but not as important.

With the unbalanced schedule, we play about 46% of our games against the other 4 teams in the West. The remaining 54% come against the other 11 NL teams and a handful of AL clubs. Almost 12% of our games will be played against each NL West team while less than 4% of our games are played against each remaining opponent. So, It's pretty important to match up well against Division rivals.
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2007 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
The question that stumped me was why do people talk about the greatest lhp and the greatest rhp pitcher. You don't do that for any other position.


Generally, I am more impressed with a LHP with the same success as a RHP because the LHP is facing far more "opposite handed" batters than the RHP.

But that's just me.
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