Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:02 am Post subject:
wabaseball34 wrote:
i actually did read both of those threads, and i understand where you guys are coming from, and theres no question that Hariston can produce, but i think we need vetran leadership.
I could be mistaken, but isn't it the job of the coaches and manager to provide "veteran leadership"?
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:06 am Post subject:
wabaseball34 wrote:
Plus we have prospects like Carlos Gonzalez that are going to break into the league somewhere in '08 most likely. So even if we start Hariston this year, we're probably only going to get one more year out of him, and then we're basically going to be forced to trade him,
Assuming CGon fixes his strikeouts and walks, what is the downside of having to trade a kid making $380k coming off of a 30HR season?
Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:06 am Post subject:
TAP wrote:
wabaseball34 wrote:
i actually did read both of those threads, and i understand where you guys are coming from, and theres no question that Hariston can produce, but i think we need vetran leadership.
I could be mistaken, but isn't it the job of the coaches and manager to provide "veteran leadership"?
TAP, what a radical concept! Do you think it might actually work?
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WB34 in the past we've all talked this veteran presence into the ground and since you likely don't have the time to reread our 1 billion posts to date, I'll summarize by saying about 78% of us feel it's over rated. FWIW
I would agree that there are certain veterans that bring along a history of improving those around them <for instance I think a side benefit for a team on Maddux is the way he's rumored to help younger pitchers>, but I don't see Byrnes as one of those.
He looks like the stupid brother you don't introduce to your fiance until after the wedding. He, at least to me, seems like one of the most immature veterans out there <which sort of negates any percieved effect of VP>.
TAP, what a radical concept! Do you think it might actually work?
Depends on the manager. I really think BMel's the wrong guy for this young team <or any team for that matter>. In my opinion we need a manager with a similar skillset as a AAA manager <grooming & patience>.
There are going to be a lot of slumps this year from a variety of players that they will need to play through if this team is going to get it together in the long run <IMO>. Luckily we don't have many crusty VP's on the bench for Bomel to use to destroy our young talent.
As an analogy, if these young players were your "nest egg", would you let BoMel be the fund manager?
Joined: 02 Jan 2007
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Location: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:08 pm Post subject:
matt wrote:
wabaseball34 wrote:
Plus we have prospects like Carlos Gonzalez that are going to break into the league somewhere in '08 most likely. So even if we start Hariston this year, we're probably only going to get one more year out of him, and then we're basically going to be forced to trade him,
Assuming CGon fixes his strikeouts and walks, what is the downside of having to trade a kid making $380k coming off of a 30HR season?
Carlos will fix his k's. He has a ton of upside, and has been tearing up the winter league. I don't see a problem in trading Hariston, but you're also assuming hes going to hit 30 HRs next year, which is possible, but not necessarily likely.
Joined: 02 Jan 2007
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Location: Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, PA
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 12:13 pm Post subject:
TAP wrote:
wabaseball34 wrote:
i actually did read both of those threads, and i understand where you guys are coming from, and theres no question that Hariston can produce, but i think we need vetran leadership.
I could be mistaken, but isn't it the job of the coaches and manager to provide "veteran leadership"?
i don't disagree with that, but sometimes coaches aren't always as close with players as teammates are. To me, Byrnes brings that prankster quality to the table as well, and can always loosen up a mood in the locker room. I could be wrong, but it seems like hes the funny type of guy who when things are down and you're struggling to find your feet at the plate, he can make you laugh and forget about it. Alot of times slumps are mental, especially for younger players. Many times they just need to get away from baseball, think about something else, and then VIOLA! Things are back together, i think Byrnes can do this. I also think we should trust the other Byrnes, Josh. He's done a tremendous job with this ball club, and has really proven to know whats best for the organization. If Josh feels theres a need to keep Eric, or a need to get rid of him, i think we should trust him. He knows what hes talking about.
I was on the Josh Byrnes train, too. But regardless of what has happened before, or what he does after, he's going to be measured by how the RJ trade turns out. It's too bad, because I thought there was a less risky path to success in '08 and beyond.
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:03 pm Post subject:
dirtygary wrote:
I was on the Josh Byrnes train, too. But regardless of what has happened before, or what he does after, he's going to be measured by how the RJ trade turns out. It's too bad, because I thought there was a less risky path to success in '08 and beyond.
I don't think this trade does much to jeopardize 2008 and beyond, even if Randy can't pitch too much by 08.
Once they trade Byrnes, they will be within budget for this year, (65 million) and then for 2008 you take 5 million for Shawn Green off the books, and the payroll budget goes to 70-75 million, so they will STILL have 10-15 million to use for 2008.
After 2008, you take 8 million for "he whose name will not be mentioned" off the books, as well as RJ's money (12 million?) and suddenly they have 20 million to spend for 2009 season.
At the same time, I don't think we can characterize losing Ohlendorf or Jackson as "dynasty threatening"....
I took the negative side of projecting RJ's performance in my bet with Levski. Thats just a smart bet. Of course the odds favor me, so thats why I took that side.
But at the same time, I think Josh did a fine job of avoiding putting himself in a pickle for the long term.
Now having to pay Jason Schmidt 16 million in 2009....that would probably have been an issue.
I took the negative side of projecting RJ's performance in my bet with Levski. Thats just a smart bet. Of course the odds favor me, so thats why I took that side.
So you're saying I'm gonna be your dumb daddy next winter?
Last edited by levski on Sat Jan 06, 2007 1:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
Zips gives Hairston the second highest SLG of any Dbacks on the 2007 roster, .522, just a smidgen below CYoung's .525. Hairston's projected SLG is 60 points higher than Byrnes's, and Byrnes's entire value is tied to his SLG and above average defense.
If you prorate his 370 at bats to 500 at bats, Hairston would be a 30 home run guy according to zips. That's basically what the Astros hope they'll get from their 100m man Carlos Lee next year.
Joined: 13 Aug 2006
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 2:18 pm Post subject:
As much as he pissed me off, with his wearing the I luv the Barry zito/san franciso midgets, 70's I luv American Style picture t-shirt.... I like Hairston's bat, but Byrnes could be on the verge of a huge offensive season, and his range in left with Young, would make us elite....Maybe the guy will settle for 3 mill, and we'll agree to lay off him here for a week.....or Byrnes for Wood!!!
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:00 pm Post subject:
Dangerfield wrote:
As much as he pissed me off, with his wearing the I luv the Barry zito/san franciso midgets, 70's I luv American Style picture t-shirt.... I like Hairston's bat, but Byrnes could be on the verge of a huge offensive season, and his range in left with Young, would make us elite....Maybe the guy will settle for 3 mill, and we'll agree to lay off him here for a week.....or Byrnes for Wood!!!
What on earth would make you think he is on the verge of a huge offensive season?
Was it yet another second half dive in 2006 which of course was so in line with the rest of his career ??
Perhaps it was his Lower than league average OBP you liked?
Or maybe it was his outlier, flukey high ISO that caught your eye?
Or maybe it's just that ever declining walk rate that convinces you he is becoming a better hitter at age 31?
The guy has a career 771 OPS and a career 98 OPS+
Last year, playing in the hitters park of Chase Field, his OPS+ was 95
There is no reasonable case that can be made for Eric Byrnes to be better than he is right now. His production is OK for a centerfielder...but we already got one of those.
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:29 pm Post subject:
sub out his 4 hole ab's from Aug on, he should of never of been in that spot or kept in it... Add age maturity, and finally figuring out how to hit. His career like Rj's/Gonzo's lot of other guys, just start at 28-35 The guy's all heart, that part's real. Look 26 hr's and 37 doubles, and 25/28 sb's, nothing to sneeze at. His lefty/right splits do tell the story, but give him another year, of 140 games and then we'll see whose right. Now Hairston be fine too, I could be sold either way... with Young, Hairston's d would be passable. With Byrnes, we're Tampa Bay range, but hopefully better field awareness.
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 3:41 pm Post subject:
Well, the more we slice up his at bats the less they mean. I'm bad enough with the first and second half splits.
When you start trying to take out the at bats in the 4 hole, it starts to become "cut too fine".
And you bring up the other point...his platoon split.
In reality, Eric Byrnes should get every start vs. lefty pitchers, and perhaps 1/3 of the starts vs. righty starters , and be the first pinch hitter off the bench vs. lefty relievers.
He should not get more than 80 starts. He is not an everyday player, and his numbers vs. righty pitching show that.
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Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:57 pm Post subject:
shoewizard wrote:
Well, the more we slice up his at bats the less they mean. I'm bad enough with the first and second half splits.
When you start trying to take out the at bats in the 4 hole, it starts to become "cut too fine".
What the cutting something too fine with stats, after in your previous you went from second half, iso, etc...
what about the 26 hr's 37 doubles, and 25/28 sb's which more or less means 60 doubles? and his range in left? That should all be ignored? that's all I'm saying. What about the fact , many power hitters come into their own from his age? There are a lot of positives we all seem to be ignoring.
Now, unfortunately it sounds kind of mute now. Byrnes and Hudson maybe both on the block since no money was included from the Spanks...Sounds like we blinked to the evil empire, I would of walked, personally from the deal. Yanks would of blinked. Pads wouldn't of paid up for him.
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