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| Brandon Medders Up or Down 4.05 FIP |
| FIP will go Up |
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35% |
[ 7 ] |
| FIP will go Down |
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65% |
[ 13 ] |
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| Total Votes : 20 |
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shoewizard
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 Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:52 pm Post subject: Brandon Medders Up or Down 4.05 FIP |
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For relievers I am using FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching
This is because for relievers, ERA is just not a good metric to judge how well they pitched. With FIP, which is based on Components and peripherals, we get a better picture.
From the THT Glossary:
| Quote: |
| Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger. |
I am using FIP numbers from FAN GRAPHS site which differ slightly from THT numbers however. That is because I can get season totals for guys that split their season between two teams, which I can't get from THT
As for Mr. Medders:
I was a little surprised to see his FIP as high as 4.05
This was due mostly to his sharp drop in K/9 (9.2 in 05, 5.9 in 06)
His FIP in 2005 was 3.2 and his career FIP is 3.8
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TAP
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| Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:53 pm Post subject: |
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In the AL East or the NL West?  |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sat Dec 30, 2006 9:55 pm Post subject: |
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Well...obviously in the NL West for now.
I figured he was rather topical, and a discussion of Medders would be a good thing right now, all things considered. |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 9:36 am Post subject: |
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I voted that Medders FIP will go UP in 2007....he will be LESS effective.
His sharp drop in K rate, and also a drop in his groundball rate are bad signs for a guy that was dealing with shoulder soreness towards the end of the season.
I think he struggles in 2007.
Good time to sell high. |
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Tucson DBacks Fan
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Joined: 13 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 9:46 am Post subject: |
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I don't have a problem with the Diamondbacks trading Medders, especially if it helps them financially to swing the deal. Assuming the deal for Randy is completed, I hope the Diamondbacks will still be able to replenish and strengthen their bullpen before the season starts. I wonder if they'll be spending to the max to land Randy?  |
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levski
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: |
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I really have no qualms about trading Medders.
I figure Owings could replace him next year, if needed, and be as effective, if not more. Plus, our pen will be quite crowded next year as well. I count
Valverde
Cruz
Julio
Vizcaino
Medders
Lyon
Pena
Slaten
Enrique |
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 10:49 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
I voted that Medders FIP will go UP in 2007....he will be LESS effective.
His sharp drop in K rate, and also a drop in his groundball rate are bad signs for a guy that was dealing with shoulder soreness towards the end of the season.
I think he struggles in 2007.
Good time to sell high. |
No way. meddars has been one of best surprises. He's consistently been good, in all situations, he's performed. Meddars is the definition of moxie. He doesn't have a plus fastball, but commands it. He doesn't have a plus curve, but commands it. Hasn't used the change enough because he doesn't command it, or can't believe it misses bats. but it maybe his only plus pitch, and if he does, start, to command it, then we have a closer. Meddars, is the definition of deception.
Shocked Cashmen would bring up his name, because no one talks about him. go through his game logs, and you'll see a pretty nice pattern. Also, remember, he's been blown out the last couple of years, on use, but its also brought him to the forefront. so now in conclusion, Meddars is someone who fits the mold of someone you don't trade, precisely because he's made it this far on deception and command alone. If he's not used 20 times a month, fips go way down.
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Fair enough....glad to hear the other view. |
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TAP
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:10 pm Post subject: |
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| I voted up based on the increasing likelihood that Medders will be pitching out of the much tougher AL East. |
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McCray
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| Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2006 4:41 pm Post subject: |
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i vote up. between the shoulder and the lack of any really impressive pitch, i think he's gonna have a rough year.
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 9:37 am Post subject: |
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| Just bumping this....only 9 votes?? |
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TAP
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| Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 10:43 am Post subject: |
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| shoewizard wrote: |
| Just bumping this....only 9 votes?? |
The Big Unit casts quite a shadow on the board. 
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:35 pm Post subject: |
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| bumping one more time....still only 12 votes. |
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TAP
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| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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| I voted up previously when it appeared he'd be wearing NY on his cap, and I'm now pleasantly surprised to see he'll still be in AZ. My vote's still up though IMO he'll be more effective here in '07 than he would have been in the AL East. |
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matt
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| Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2007 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| I voted earlier but I can't remember what I voted. I say down now. |
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foulpole
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| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 4:58 pm Post subject: |
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| I voted lower. With our top 4 starters potential to go 800+ IP, I feel that our entire pen will be well rested ( and maybe even a little bored ). |
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foulpole
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| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| I voted earlier but I can't remember what I voted. I say down now. |
I waited to chime in on this one until the dust settled on the RJ trade.
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matt
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| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:20 pm Post subject: |
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| foulpole wrote: |
| I voted lower. With our top 4 starters potential to go 800+ IP, I feel that our entire pen will be well rested ( and maybe even a little bored ). |
Webb, Livan, Davis, and ??? RJ won't get enough starts to throw 200 so you must be talking about Edgar?
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foulpole
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| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| matt wrote: |
| Webb, Livan, Davis, and ??? RJ won't get enough starts to throw 200 so you must be talking about Edgar? |
I'm not convinced that RJ is going to miss a full month and when all four are combined I do feel that 800+ IP is reasonable.
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