Diamondbacks Bullpen

shoewizard · Last edited by shoewizard on Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:40 am; edited 1 time in total

The 4.83 ERA for Livan is for his entire year.

He had a 5.34 with WA. and a 3.76 with AZ

(Poll is asking if his ERA will be up or down)

TAP

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:40 am Post subject:

Will his ERA be up.....or down.

I voted his ERA will be up, I.E., he will be WORSE

matt · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:40 am Post subject:

I voted down, he won't beat his AZ numbers but should have no problem beating the total for the whole year.

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:44 am Post subject:

He was VERY lucky for this team last year.

His GB % was only 33%
His k/g was only 5.1
But his HR/F rate dropped to 7.5%. LUCKY!!

When I watched him pitch, it was all smoke and mirrors, fooling guys with crap the first two times around the lineup. Alot of hard hit balls right at people too, (as evidenced by his .719 DER)

By the 3rd time around the order, guys usually started teeing off on him.

My feeling is that as the hitters in the NL west get to see more and more of him again, they will start getting to him earlier. His velocity isn't there, he isn't getting the movement to make guys pound it in the dirt, and he won't strike out too many guys.

Look for him to give up alot more homers per 9 than he did while pitching for the D Backs last year....and look for him to struggle mightily to keep his ERA under 5.00

TAP · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 10:51 am Post subject:

TSWINDERS · Journeyman Joined: 05 Sep 2006 Posts: 427

While I don't think he will be in the 3.7 Range like he had in AZ but he will not be in the 4.83 area he will better that. I say 4.10-4.25 range.

qudjy1 · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1121

I say down... He hasnt been a 4.83 ERA very often...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3573

B. O. N. D. · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 11:35 am Post subject:

Plus, he should be completely recovered. I say down. Don't forget it's a contract year, either.
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Dylan · MLB Rookie Joined: 11 Aug 2006 Posts: 235

Career ERA+ of 101 which is around 4.5-4.6 for Chase. I say under

matt · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 11:46 am Post subject:

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:06 pm Post subject:

I think his last 3 seasons weighted averages would give you a more accurate projection than looking at career averages.

I just went and looked up ZIPS....it aint pretty

231 IP, 5.14 ERA, 258 Hits 31 HR 83 Walks, 142 K's

Might I suggest you spend some time Here and look at his trends in each category, including BIP distribution.

tmar · Veteran Presence Joined: 10 Aug 2006 Posts: 1184

I vote his ERA going up. He seemed to lose it last year after the 3rd time around the batting order. Hopefully I'm wrong about him.

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 12:28 pm Post subject:

One last point.....I know Levski's retort will likely be "Fip Schmip"

But Livan last 4 seasons

03-4.04
04-4.16
05-4.51
06-4.90

That kind of continued degradation in peripherals usually precedes collapse.

We've seen this before ya know....

Check out the FIP trend of one other well known player from 2001-2004

01-3.68
02-4.20
03-4.34
04-4.94

I think you know Who I am talking about

The ONLY reason anyone can say they might expect Livan to reverse this trend is because they feel the trend is due to the fact he had an injured knee, and now it's "all better".

I'm not buying. Not after watching him pitch.

McCray · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:55 pm Post subject:

i know we're not supposed to, but i vote the same. right around a 4.8ish era. i agree with most of what shoe is saying -- he was incredibly lucky last year, and he can only fool batters twice with his crap. but he's also a very smart pitcher, it seems. he's been impressive thus far with changing speeds, locations, height, sides. and he claims he's improved from his knee surgery.

so, if he gets back a bit of velocity, that might offset the impending collapse. and if he doesn't, i think he'll still be okay. sure, he's a FB pitcher, but we're going to have some awesome OF defense this year.

he'll get worse from what he was in AZ. but i think he's got smarts, and he's intelligent enough to change his gamplan, where ortiz was not. ortiz went about the game the same way as always, even after he lost his velocity. livan did not, it seemed to me.

yeah, the collapse is coming, but it won't happen that fast. at least, i pray it won't.
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dirtygary · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:45 pm Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:50 pm Post subject:

Lookin at parks, in our division, BOB is the only "live" park now. The others are all pitcher's parks, sans a few quirks down the lines. Even ours plays long between the alleys.

I've always thought Livan was vulnerable, but he has the uncanny ability to work out of jams. I was always waiting for the other wheel to fall off and he just kept getting outs.

Voted he'll do better only because 4.83 is pretty high and I think he'll end up between 4.6 and 4.8 by the end of the year.
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misterx · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 2:57 pm Post subject:

i voted up i think he is wearing down and he gets to pitch his home games at chase now not rfk
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shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 3:00 pm Post subject:

dirtygary · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:33 pm Post subject:

Good call on RFK replaced by BOB, but Coors isn't the big purple monster to pitchers it once was. Still a hitter's park - just not like what it used to be.

Dangerfield · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:50 pm Post subject:

He's the same new Livian from 02 on. He's a knuckleball pitcher, only he doesn't throw a knuckleball. Expect 22 quality starts, and it doesn't matter if he has 3.8 era or a 4.8, expect 22 quality starts, and probably pitch into the 8th in 24 of them. Now, there's always a concern, he could show up overweight and not get a long with any of coaches, media, teammates, dog or that will happen throughout the season with him anyway.

clear?
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shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:51 pm Post subject:

I didn't say he was going to be as bad as Ortiz was........you have to remember that Ortiz was far worse than even the most pessimistic projections.

But after watching Ortiz's perihperals degrade as badly as they did, it was fairly obvious to many of his he would be a bust here. I figured an ERA around 5 or higher.....of course I didn't see an ERA in the 6's and 8's !!

Livan shows the same trends over the last 4 season....take a look again at the FIP numbers I quoted above.

You wanna make a bet?

I'm game.

Over/Under on last years 4.83 ERA.

I got 200$ that says over, you want to take the under?

shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:56 pm Post subject:

Dangerfield · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:02 pm Post subject:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerGameLog?categoryId=85867

it's within 22.
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shoewizard · Posted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 5:04 pm Post subject:

19 is within 22?