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stu
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 9:57 pm    Post subject: Any one of interest? Reply with quote

Here is a piece (through Primer) on some interesting Non-Tenders

There is a Jason Bulger sighting. Can we get him back? Should we?

I have always liked both Werth and Clausen. I wouldn't mind having them for the right price. What will these guys go for?
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levski
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Any one of interest? Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Here is a piece (through Primer) on some interesting Non-Tenders

There is a Jason Bulger sighting. Can we get him back? Should we?

I have always liked both Werth and Clausen. I wouldn't mind having them for the right price. What will these guys go for?



Ah, the Claussen pickle. I'm game for it. Ditto for Bulger
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd give Bulger or Werth a shot for cheap, but Claussen has never had a GB% over 37%, and he can't strike out enough guys to make up for it. He didn't give up all those homers just because of the ballpark. You would get whiplash Stu, snapping you head around as it flew over you into Fridays front frow grill.
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levski
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i still insist that claussen is worth a shot. and maybe more.

werth... not worth it. he's superfluous in arizona
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well if you insist...... Rolling Eyes
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stu
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Claussen will be 28 next year. I thought he was younger. Still he has over a k/ip in the minors and a k/w of 2.76 (not remarkable but decent). He is listed at 6'2" 175. I am skeptical of Baseball Cube's measurements as they had Enrique Gonzales at 6'2" and Edgar at 6', but basbell reference has the same measurements. This is not a bad size

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Brandon-Claussen.shtml

Young, Peavy, Schmidt and Cain all had GB% of under 38% last year. Claussen had a nice 2005. If he still has a live arm, I'd take a chance.

I looked back to see what we said about Vargas (Claussen at this stage is a poor man's Vargas). You can't get the whole post just the first few words. I said that at least Vargas has a live arm. I never thought Vargas was a good fit in our park, but he logged some innings and was useful in a trade. Claussen could be the same.
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stu
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

werth... not worth it. he's superfluous in arizona

Did you forget we are trading Byrnes. Shoe snuck into his office and put it on his day timer.

TO DO: TRADE ERIC BYRNES

FREE SCOTT HAIRSTON!!!!
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levski
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

claussen actually was a very good pitching prospect until he ended up in a tough ballpark in front of an atrocious defense. he actually was pretty good in 2005, and wasn't that much worse in 2006 before injuries wiped out his season.

i'd rather take a flier on claussen than mulder, given what they'd cost us
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TAP
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2006 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Did you forget we are trading Byrnes. Shoe snuck into his office and put it on his day timer.

TO DO: TRADE ERIC BYRNES

FREE SCOTT HAIRSTON!!!!

But for that fateful June 19th afternoon in Pittsburgh, there'd be no need to free Scotty. Until then, he was on his way to forcing AZ management to acknowledge his major league talent.

He tore up AAA pitching while with Tucson this year hitting for a .407 OBP and .998 OPS, was MVP at the Bricktown Showdown, and earned MiLB.com's AAA Offensive Player of the Year. During his 9 games with AZ in June this year (while the rest of the Diamondbacks stunk up the joint), Hairston had a .438 OBP and a .971 OPS before crashing into the outfield wall at PNC Park attempting an over the wall catch. He then was summarily tucked neatly away, never again to see a starting role for Arizona.

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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
Claussen will be 28 next year. I thought he was younger. Still he has over a k/ip in the minors and a k/w of 2.76 (not remarkable but decent). He is listed at 6'2" 175. I am skeptical of Baseball Cube's measurements as they had Enrique Gonzales at 6'2" and Edgar at 6', but basbell reference has the same measurements. This is not a bad size

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/C/Brandon-Claussen.shtml

Young, Peavy, Schmidt and Cain all had GB% of under 38% last year. Claussen had a nice 2005. If he still has a live arm, I'd take a chance.

I looked back to see what we said about Vargas (Claussen at this stage is a poor man's Vargas). You can't get the whole post just the first few words. I said that at least Vargas has a live arm. I never thought Vargas was a good fit in our park, but he logged some innings and was useful in a trade. Claussen could be the same.


Nice selective use of comps there buddy.
Which one of these is not like the other?

Schmidt 7.8 K/G
Peavy 9.9 K/G
Cain 8.5 K/G
Young 8.7 K/G

Claussen 6.3 K/G

Low or average K rates and low groundball rates are a bad combination in Chase Field, improved outfield defense or not. If the best we can hope for is aleft handed Claudio Vargas clone, then pass....we have 5 other guys that can fill that role. I'd rather see Eveland on the 25 man roster than Claussen.
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levski
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:

Nice selective use of comps there buddy.
Which one of these is not like the other?

Schmidt 7.8 K/G
Peavy 9.9 K/G
Cain 8.5 K/G
Young 8.7 K/G




Schmidt
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 19, 2006 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LOL
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The point was that one can be a successful pitcher without having a great gb%. Claussen had a good k rate in the minors. Obvioulsy he has warts. If he has great stats he would not have been non-tendered.

It is no great trick to find problems with guys other teams have cut. The have cut him for a reason. The trick is to find players who have an upside and try to exploit it.

Sure the odds are against Claussen, but if the risk is low (especially if you don't have to use a roster spot) you gamble on some of these guys. I'd rather have Eveland too. That is why the Dbacks traded for him. He was not free however. Claussen essentially is. That is a big difference.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
The point was that one can be a successful pitcher without having a great gb%. Claussen had a good k rate in the minors. Obvioulsy he has warts. If he has great stats he would not have been non-tendered.

It is no great trick to find problems with guys other teams have cut. The have cut him for a reason. The trick is to find players who have an upside and try to exploit it.

Sure the odds are against Claussen, but if the risk is low (especially if you don't have to use a roster spot) you gamble on some of these guys. I'd rather have Eveland too. That is why the Dbacks traded for him. He was not free however. Claussen essentially is. That is a big difference.



And this analysis is why I don't argue with Stu. Stu's a little off on byrnes but no matter. Laughing but I'm not arguing.
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Dylan
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So would you prefer Claussen over Jerome Williams (who was also non tendered), Stu? I think it's pretty minimal, but I'd take Williams.


Lower K/9, but not as much of a FB pitcher or a HR or BB allower. I think the right pitching coach can get him strait, teach him a thrid pitch and he'd have a good career.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Did williams ever get TJ surgery? What was his story?
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw Williams pitch a couple of time his rookie year and in ST and was impressed. Looking at his stats now I'm not sure why.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/W/Jerome-Williams.shtml

I'd have to defer to scouting on this one as to who is better at this stage, but Claussen's minor league record looks better to me. IIRC Williams has a weight problem. Plus Claussen could be a lefty in the pen.

I agree he is not a good fit for Chase. The pitchers I listed all played in anti-HR parks, but if his arm is sound and the price is right, I don't see the harm (roster spot excepted) especially with pitchers going the way are.

As to Byrnes, I have always thought he had an upside. He had what I thought were correctable weaknesses and some real ability to hit the ball. His weakness against rh could be helped by platooning him against some pitchers. I had thought he could have a good year for us.

However, he is now another year older and, after watching him almost every day for a year, I don't see him correcting his problems. He is now playing lf, not cf. Melvin does not seem to realize that a lh might be a good idea as a replacement for Byrnes on a regular basis. I think he will beat the ZIPS, but I don't see him improving much on last year.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

More on Byrnes: proverbial late bloomer. He cheats/anticipates then pop-ups. He slows things down a notch, and not cheat so much, the 300/30's a reality. He's a powerfully built guy. That's why the 30+ hr's. He has the same ability as Soriano.
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dangerfield wrote:
More on Byrnes: proverbial late bloomer. He cheats/anticipates then pop-ups. He slows things down a notch, and not cheat so much, the 300/30's a reality. He's a powerfully built guy. That's why the 30+ hr's. He has the same ability as Soriano.


Soriano?

I think he has the same ability as Ted Williams.

Doesn't change one bit my projection or expectation of Eric Byrnes.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

levski wrote:
Dangerfield wrote:
More on Byrnes: proverbial late bloomer. He cheats/anticipates then pop-ups. He slows things down a notch, and not cheat so much, the 300/30's a reality. He's a powerfully built guy. That's why the 30+ hr's. He has the same ability as Soriano.


Soriano?

I think he has the same ability as Ted Williams.

Doesn't change one bit my projection or expectation of Eric Byrnes.


Laughing
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stu wrote:
The point was that one can be a successful pitcher without having a great gb%. Claussen had a good k rate in the minors. Obvioulsy he has warts. If he has great stats he would not have been non-tendered.

It is no great trick to find problems with guys other teams have cut. The have cut him for a reason. The trick is to find players who have an upside and try to exploit it.

Sure the odds are against Claussen, but if the risk is low (especially if you don't have to use a roster spot) you gamble on some of these guys. I'd rather have Eveland too. That is why the Dbacks traded for him. He was not free however. Claussen essentially is. That is a big difference.


I understand what you are saying. I really do. My problem is this: Why tie up a roster spot with a guy that has a low GB rate and a Low K rate. There is no doubt in my mind that those two things combined are going to give BAD results in chase field, regardless of the cost of the player.

So why give up the roster spot? It's a waste. You have to project either a significant increase in his k rate or a significant increase in his GB rate, for him to have any chance of success in our ballpark.

THerfore you MUST have scout/observation based reasons to project that improvement, because it's just not there in the numbers.
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levski
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
stu wrote:
The point was that one can be a successful pitcher without having a great gb%. Claussen had a good k rate in the minors. Obvioulsy he has warts. If he has great stats he would not have been non-tendered.

It is no great trick to find problems with guys other teams have cut. The have cut him for a reason. The trick is to find players who have an upside and try to exploit it.

Sure the odds are against Claussen, but if the risk is low (especially if you don't have to use a roster spot) you gamble on some of these guys. I'd rather have Eveland too. That is why the Dbacks traded for him. He was not free however. Claussen essentially is. That is a big difference.


I understand what you are saying. I really do. My problem is this: Why tie up a roster spot with a guy that has a low GB rate and a Low K rate. There is no doubt in my mind that those two things combined are going to give BAD results in chase field, regardless of the cost of the player.

So why give up the roster spot? It's a waste. You have to project either a significant increase in his k rate or a significant increase in his GB rate, for him to have any chance of success in our ballpark.

THerfore you MUST have scout/observation based reasons to project that improvement, because it's just not there in the numbers.



Oh come on now, shoewiz, the Dbacks 40 man roster isn't the fn Hall of Fame. There are several guys there with less upside than Claussen...
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think he has the same ability as Ted Williams.


Ted has a very small strike zone now.
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shoewizard
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Oh come on now, shoewiz, the Dbacks 40 man roster isn't the fn Hall of Fame. There are several guys there with less upside than Claussen...


If he is willing to sign a minor league contract and go to Tucson and compete with the other young starters, and work his way up to the big club, then I'm fine with signing him.

If he is signed to a major league contract and is given a spot on the 25 man, then I am not fine with it.

So which are you proposing?
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stu
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 20, 2006 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not to quibble, but what the heck, the off season has been boring, it would the 40 man that is an issue now. You see how he is throwing in the spring and decide on the 25. I don't believe in making decisions based on ST, but this may be an exception.

I think you would certainly need to review the scouting reports carefully. If they are favorable, I would try to get him to sign a minor league deal for a greater than the major league minimum. I konw a 100k, a 100k there, but this might be a spot to spring for the extar 100k. Heck, I'd rather have a pitcher than the new sound system.
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