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levski
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 Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:14 pm Post subject: scott hairston, deep sleeper |
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It's a bit old, but since you can never have enough "Free Scott Hairston" articles...
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2006/10/deep_sleeper_sc.html
Scott Hairston has been mentioned as a trade bait for Otsuka. That would be a huge mistake. Don't get me wrong, I don't mind acquiring Otsuka, but giving up Hairston for him would be too much. Especially since Hairston could easily be one of AZ's best three hitters next year... |
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TSWINDERS
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Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| For some reason it seems like we really have something against Hairston. |
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TAP
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Location: Gold Canyon
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| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| For some reason it seems like we really have something against Hairston. |
we=AZ? "Nice talented guy but no baseball IQ on the field."
I sure wish they'd give him just one more serious shot at LF.
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TSWINDERS
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| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:31 pm Post subject: |
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| Yes we=AZ. And yes he made me pull my hair out on some of his misplays in LF last year but I would sure like to see him get an honest shot. |
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nm132
A-Ball Kid
Joined: 29 Sep 2006
Posts: 15
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| Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:28 pm Post subject: |
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| He could have got at least 10 starts in September but they kept trotting out Gonzo. I would be very surprised if Hairston is not traded before March. Some small market team will play him every day in LF next season. |
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foulpole
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:03 am Post subject: |
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| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| Yes we=AZ. And yes he made me pull my hair out on some of his misplays in LF last year but I would sure like to see him get an honest shot. |
Maybe he is better suited for the AL? Just a thought...
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tmar
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 6:52 am Post subject: |
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The thing that drives me so nuts about this is that the owners are all business men and this is an easy business decision.
Hairston is 4+MM cheaper and if he hits 30+ HR next year, nobody is going to be looking at his defense <ask Lee>. Right now we couldn't trade him even up for Otsuka, next year we could likely trade him for a quality SP <if we still needed to trade him>.
There just isn't a perceivable upside to EB and at the end of the year he's a FA. |
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ncdbackfan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 11 Aug 2006
Posts: 172
Location: Charlotte, NC
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:24 am Post subject: |
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| foulpole wrote: |
| Maybe he is better suited for the AL? Just a thought... |
good point ... he reminds me of erubiel durazo
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:32 am Post subject: |
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we would probably have a pretty good outfield defense with him in left, though. He also had 26 hr and 25 sb's.
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TSWINDERS
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Joined: 05 Sep 2006
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| foulpole wrote: |
| TSWINDERS wrote: |
| Yes we=AZ. And yes he made me pull my hair out on some of his misplays in LF last year but I would sure like to see him get an honest shot. |
Maybe he is better suited for the AL? Just a thought...
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I would think so. He isn't a bad fielder but some of the decisions he makes in LF made me scratch my head. One funny moment where leaped for a ball and just as the ball was going to hit him in the groin area (ouch) he was able to get the glove back down and make a basket catch. I think the catch was in self defense.
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EvilJuan
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Location: Phoenix, AZ
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 12:47 pm Post subject: |
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| tmar wrote: |
The thing that drives me so nuts about this is that the owners are all business men and this is an easy business decision.
Hairston is 4+MM cheaper and if he hits 30+ HR next year, nobody is going to be looking at his defense <ask Lee>. Right now we couldn't trade him even up for Otsuka, next year we could likely trade him for a quality SP <if we still needed to trade him>.
There just isn't a perceivable upside to EB and at the end of the year he's a FA. |
Completely agree. How is it that we can see this, but Kendrick, Moorad, and Byrnes are all missing it? What do they know that we don't?
Eric Byrnes must be traded!
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stu
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:37 pm Post subject: |
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How is it that we can see this, but Kendrick, Moorad, and Byrnes are all missing it? What do they know that we don't?
To play Devil's Advocate (cue Nicole Kidman) this may be the "No one ever got fired for buying IBM syndrome. Keeping Eric Byrnes is not going to get JB fired or even in trouble. Going with Scott Hairston might or at least go towards it.
Put it this way: would you want your job to ride on Scott Hairston success? |
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shoewizard
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:44 pm Post subject: |
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| His job would not be riding on the Hairstons success though. I think he had alot more job security than that. |
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levski
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:48 pm Post subject: |
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| stu wrote: |
How is it that we can see this, but Kendrick, Moorad, and Byrnes are all missing it? What do they know that we don't?
To play Devil's Advocate (cue Nicole Kidman) this may be the "No one ever got fired for buying IBM syndrome. Keeping Eric Byrnes is not going to get JB fired or even in trouble. Going with Scott Hairston might or at least go towards it.
Put it this way: would you want your job to ride on Scott Hairston success? |
People prefer to fail conservatively than to risk succeeding differently.
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tmar
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:54 pm Post subject: |
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Even if we got rid of EB and Hairston bombs, finding a workable LF for the 07 season wouldn't be that difficult.
And going with the argument that we aren't 1 person away from winning the WS in 07, I don't see the decision as a make or break decision. |
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levski
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:57 pm Post subject: |
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| tmar wrote: |
Even if we got rid of EB and Hairston bombs, finding a workable LF for the 07 season wouldn't be that difficult.
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I see tmar is starting the "Dave Krynzel for NL ROY" movement.
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tmar
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Wouldn't it be funny if he ended up being the jewel of the trade. |
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levski
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:07 pm Post subject: |
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| tmar wrote: |
| Wouldn't it be funny if he ended up being the jewel of the trade. |
I'm not sure why you're wishing death or grave sickness to Doug Davis and Dana Eveland.
The only jewel that Krynzel can end up being is of the family kind.
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tmar
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| Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 5:11 pm Post subject: |
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I was looking on the brighter side hoping that Eveland and Davis did well but Krynzel was the sleeper.
Actually I wasn't even thinking of Kyrnzel originally. |
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David B
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 3:46 am Post subject: |
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| tmar wrote: |
| I was looking on the brighter side hoping that Eveland and Davis did well but Krynzel was the sleeper. |
He's beyond being a sleeper...he's positively comatose
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Tucson DBacks Fan
MLB Rookie
Joined: 13 Oct 2006
Posts: 208
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 10:22 am Post subject: |
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Unfortunately, Kryn looks like an insomniac to me. I wonder if Arizona was asked to take him by Milwaukee and the trade was off if they didn't.  |
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:16 am Post subject: |
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Byrnes if he doesn't get traded and plays full time next year goes 300/330/550 with 25 homers/ 90 rbi's and 25 sb's batting 7th. Throw in elite defense in left.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it |
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levski
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:25 am Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| Byrnes if he doesn't get traded and plays full time next year goes 300/330/550 with 25 homers/ 90 rbi's and 25 sb's batting 7th. Throw in elite defense in left. |
the closest byrnes ever came to batting .300 in a full season was in 2004, his age 28 season. and even then, he batted .283, with 20 homers.
eric byrnes isn't a good enough hitter to bat .300 AND hit 25 homers. he'll either hit 25 homers with .260 batting average or he'll go all Shea on AZ and bat .300 with 10 homers. and i don't see the latter happening.
furthermore, byrnes has averaged 40 walks per 522 at bats in his career. if he walks 40 times and bats .300, his obp will be higher than .330. so you're saying that he'll walk even less than usual? and bat .300?
if eric byrnes hits 25 homers and steals 25 bags again next year, he'll bat just over .260 and will barely have on-base of just over. 320. and his overall contribution will be less than gonzo's production in 2006.
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Dangerfield
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:32 am Post subject: |
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yup, he'll walk his 30 times and k 100, and still put up the numbers I suggest.
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My wife is always trying to get rid of me. The other day she told me to put the garbage out. I said to her I already did. She told me to go and keep an eye on it |
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levski
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| Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 11:52 am Post subject: |
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| Dangerfield wrote: |
| yup, he'll walk his 30 times and k 100, and still put up the numbers I suggest. |
Just for kicks, if he got 500 at bats, he would need 150 hits for .300 batting average. 150 hits plus 30 walks over 530 plate appearances is .340 obp. to get .330 obp, he would have 23 walks.
it'll be a cold day in hell before eric byrnes hits .300 with 23 walks and 100k. that means he'll have to have an insanely high .375 BABIP. to put it plainly, his BABIP in 2004, when he posted .283 batting average, was .322.
to have BABIP of .322 over 500 at bats, Byrnes would need to strike out only 35 times in those 500 at bats. in other words, to reach that .300/.330 ba/obp you project, he would have 23 walks and 35 strikeouts.
not to belabor a point here, but eric byrnes doesn't have the bat control to strike out only 35 times in 500 at bats AND hit 25 homers. as i wrote already, he could try to become shea hillenbrant version 2004, but he can't... he doesn't have shea's plate discipline, and even if he miraculously gained that, he won't have enough power to hit 25 homers and slug .550.
[edit]
further correction, his .322 babip in 2004 resulted in .283 batting average. he would need higher babip, realistically, to bat .300, something closer to .340. which still means that his k rate would have to remain ridiculously low, and certainly nothing close to the 100 strikeouts predicted here.
if byrnes walked 23 times and struck out 23 times and got 500 at bats, he might come close to .300 ba and .330 opb. of course, when byrnes ends a full season of 500 at bats with 23 strikeouts, i'll marry ru paul
[/edit]
in other words, you are talking out of your ass.
Last edited by levski on Sun Dec 17, 2006 12:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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