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Where should Drew bat?

 
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xjwheelr
AA Prospect


Joined: 11 Sep 2006
Posts: 47

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:36 pm    Post subject: Where should Drew bat? Reply with quote

I know this has been addressed previously in a few different forms, but I still feel like everytime I think about my ideal lineup for next year, Stephen Drew is the hardest one to place. I think he would be a very good leadoff hitter, and probably better than any other option at leadoff right now. But it seems like such a waste with his power potential and ability to drive in runs (I loved watching him clear the bases with triples and doubles last year). From what I've heard though, especially with Byrnes supposedly batting cleanup *barf*, Young might be the frontrunner at this point for leadoff. I also think Young should play further down in the order, for the same reasons as Drew.

In light of the recent Orlando Hudson poll, if the concensus is that he will likely be a better hitter next year (if only slightly better), why not consider him for leadoff? I know a lot of people here are against the idea, but why not, if he can get on base with consistency? It would free up spots further down in the order for Drew and Young (not that Melvin would bat Drew leadoff anyway).

I see Stephen Drew as an ideal 3 or 5 hitter, and I'd like to see him in an RBI spot if possible. But for the time being, is he our best option?
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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Location: In front of my computer

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baseball Prospectus has a stat based on RBI Opportunites that simply tabulates the percentage of runners on base that a player drove in.

They call it OBI%, or "Others Batted In" (THe totals don't include the RBI you get for driving yourself in with a homerun)

This is a better stat than Batting Avg W/ RISP

DBacks with minimum 150 Plate Appearances in 2006.

Code:
Davanon .20134
Estrada .18293
Snyder  .17333
Quentin .16912
Jackson .16368
Byrnes  .15588
Tracy   .15544
Easley  .14615
Hudson  .14208
Gonzalez.13744
Counsell.1333
S Green .12862
Drew    .11921


Of course the sample size is small, Drew only had 220 plate appearances. But I don't think we should be looking at him as a big RBI guy at this point.

My guess is against righties, Melvin will try Hudson @ leadoff, and Drew 2nd. On the Days that Jeff Davanon plays in left over Eric Brynes,(mostly against righties}, he might hit leadoff. Melvin was trying that at the time Davanon got hurt.

Against lefties, Drew will hit further down the lineup,
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nystro
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Joined: 05 Oct 2006
Posts: 22
Location: Tempe

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

Code:
Davanon .20134
Estrada .18293
Snyder  .17333
Quentin .16912
Jackson .16368
Byrnes  .15588
Tracy   .15544
Easley  .14615
Hudson  .14208
Gonzalez.13744
Counsell.1333
S Green .12862
Drew    .11921



I notice Gonzo, Counsell, and Green near the bottom of the list. That probably means this statistic is hogwash because they're all "veteran guys who want to win." Wink
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dirtygary
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Drew would be best at the 2 or 6.

He seems like the guy to go the other way on a hit/run, or to move the runner over, or keep a rally going by continuing a string of extra base hits.
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matt
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
Posts: 1748
Location: Researching my theory that a lime hat is more effective than tinfoil

PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nystro wrote:
I notice Gonzo, Counsell, and Green near the bottom of the list. That probably means this statistic is hogwash because they're all "veteran guys who want to win." Wink


lol, 9 posts in and you already have the hang of it here! Laughing
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foulpole
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 15, 2006 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

shoewizard wrote:
Baseball Prospectus has a stat based on RBI Opportunites that simply tabulates the percentage of runners on base that a player drove in.


Does it include runners on 1st as well?
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shoewizard
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 8:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Code:
#   NAME   TEAM   YEAR   PA   PA_ROB   R1   R2   R3   R1_BI   R2_BI   R3_BI   ROB   OBI   R1BI%   R2BI%   R3BI%   OBI%
1.   Jeff Davanon   ARI   2006   256   104   72   52   25   3   12   15   149   30   4.2%   23.1%   60.0%   0.20134
2.   Johnny Estrada   ARI   2006   443   235   155   111   62   9   20   31   328   60   5.8%   18.0%   50.0%   0.18293
3.   Chris Snyder   ARI   2006   213   107   69   53   28   5   10   11   150   26   7.2%   18.9%   39.3%   0.17333
4.   Carlos Quentin   ARI   2006   191   98   78   31   27   7   7   9   136   23   9.0%   22.6%   33.3%   0.16912
5.   Conor Jackson   ARI   2006   556   282   209   117   65   15   23   26   391   64   7.2%   19.7%   40.0%   0.16368
6.   Eric Byrnes   ARI   2006   606   248   161   122   57   11   21   21   340   53   6.8%   17.2%   36.8%   0.15588
7.   Chad Tracy   ARI   2006   662   287   201   124   61   10   22   28   386   60   5.0%   17.7%   45.9%   0.15544
8.   Damion Easley   ARI   2006   220   92   67   39   24   4   7   8   130   19   6.0%   17.9%   33.3%   0.14615
9.   Orlando Hudson   ARI   2006   650   276   174   135   57   11   17   24   366   52   6.3%   12.6%   42.1%   0.14208
10.   Luis Gonzalez   ARI   2006   668   315   206   150   66   13   19   26   422   58   6.3%   12.7%   39.4%   0.13744
11.   Craig Counsell   ARI   2006   415   140   84   70   41   1   6   19   195   26   1.2%   8.6%   46.3%   0.13333
12.   Shawn Green   ARI   2006   462   223   154   114   43   8   20   12   311   40   5.2%   17.5%   27.9%   0.12862
13.   Stephen Drew   ARI   2006   226   111   81   49   21   4   11   3   151   18   4.9%   22.4%   14.3%   0.11921


Please see above chart. I used code, but of course the columns don't line up. If any of the Mods know how to do this so things line up nicer, please feel free to go in and fix. The only way I can do it is to move them around manually...and I ain't doing it.

FP, yes the overall percentage I quoted included runners on first. From this chart however, you can see the percentage of runners on first, on second and on third that were driven in by looking that the percentage numbers to the right.

The table also shows the total number of runners on first, 2nd, and 3rd respectively, and how many were driven in. In Drews case, his failure to bring in runners on 3rd is what really killed his percentages.

Drew drove in just 3 of 21 runners on 3rd during his at bats
He drove in 11 of 49 runners on 2nd
He drove in 4 of 81 runners on 1st

In total he drove in 18 of the 151 runners that were on base during his at bats.
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Dangerfield
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Joined: 13 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/stats/individual_player_splits.jsp?c_id=ari&playerID=452220&sitSplit1=All&statType=1&statSet=1&splitSet=2

He was actually really effective with 1-2nd, .438, in total .235 w/risp. Now also take into account, how many of those chances came down in the line-up??? because he has more bb's with risp, than in other ab's, leading me to believe he was pitched around. I'd stick him in the proverbial 2-hole and smile, for a variety of reasons.
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The line-up next year
O-dog
Drew
CoJack
CQ
Triple Crown
ROY
Byrnes
Snyder
Cy
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Dangerfield
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone want to take a shot, at why I wouldn't do the right left split with Cojack, CQ, and Triple Crown?
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levski
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Joined: 10 Aug 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 16, 2006 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

as long as drew is in the lineup for 150 games, does anyone care where he bats?
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