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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 9:56 pm 
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stu wrote:
Harmon wrote:
"Why mess with a great defensive outfield that was instrumental in making the playoffs last year?"
Answer: Team depth, versatility & LH power. This isn't about Parra v. Kubel; it's Parra AND Kubel.


Can Parra and Kubel both play lf at the same time? Can one play offense and one play defense? If Kubel was minimum wage fine, but $7,500,000 per year is a lot for a fourth outfielder. The Dbacks are not the Yankees.


Both are lefties. And Young and Upton don't sit much.

I get the depth angle. I was one of the leading complainers about having Willie Bloomquist just a heartbeat away from being the almost everyday left fielder in the event of an injury.

But getting a guy with substandard glove on the wrong side of 30 coming off two very mediocre seasons for a corner outfielder, and paying pretty much full market value was not what I had in mind.

Jim McLennan pointed out that that Target Field represses left handed HR power and Chase inflates it, by posting some park factors split by LHB and RHB. Target had a 65 for LHB HR, and Chase had a 119. So there IS a reasonable expectation that a healthy Kubel would see his power numbers increase.

Clearly the D Backs are going to play Kubel every day, and use Parra as 4th outfielder and late inning defensive replacement. They might use Kubel at first....but they haven't indicated that, and really you just need to wait until they either express that plan, or see if he gets reps at first in spring training before you can speculate about him backing up Goldschmidt. And if that is the plan, WTF is Overbay doing on the roster for a million bucks ???

Bottom line: The only way this works out as a plus for the D backs is if

A.) Kubel hits 25-30 HR with respectable batting avg and walks and doesn't suck quite so bad in LF

B.) Parra really has peaked and just had his career season at age 24, and so this turns out to be a succssful pre emptive move to address Parra's impending premature decline. :roll:


P.S. Welcome to the board. Sorry your first post was defending the near indefensible. Valiant effort. Don't take the rebuttals personally......it's just business.

Now get in the boat Fredo. ;)

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:19 pm 
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I think that Parra will get adequate playing time, but not 130 games. He'll most likely be playing 2-3 games a week IMHO, he'll also be able to fill in for CY24 and JUP on days that they need rest; and we've suffered through days they really needed off before.

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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:28 pm 
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Some comparable guys to Kubel

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1972 to 2011, From Age 21 to 30, Bats LH, Played 40% of games at LF or RF, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=100, onbase_plus_slugging_plus<=117, SB<=30, runs_fielding<=10, BB>.42*SO and At least 2000 plate appearances), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players

LINK TO FULL REPORT

Abbreviated version below

Code:
                                                                                                 
Rk          Player WAR/pos OPS+ SB Rfield  BB  SO   PA   Age   AB  HR RBI HBP   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1       Ben Grieve     6.7  113 24    -75 466 784 3743 21-29 3215 118 492  45 .269 .367 .442 .809
2      Troy OLeary     6.7  100 12      9 261 510 3534 23-30 3222 106 476  19 .280 .335 .460 .795
3      Jason Kubel     6.4  112 10    -10 250 532 2846 22-29 2559 104 429   8 .271 .335 .459 .794
4         Mel Hall     5.6  108 27    -43 236 514 3914 21-30 3618 118 532  15 .278 .321 .441 .762
5      Jay Gibbons     4.3  101  2      0 215 414 3035 24-30 2787 121 405  15 .260 .314 .453 .768
6    Phil Plantier     1.9  103 13    -23 237 476 2165 21-28 1883  91 292  23 .243 .332 .439 .770
7     Larry Sheets     1.2  109  6    -24 173 350 2481 24-30 2267  94 338  18 .267 .321 .438 .760

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2011 10:50 pm 
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I skipped through most of the 1st 4 pages but I guess my question (lots of others I am sure have the same question) is how does this deal really help? Lets say Kubel hits 20-25 HR's thats not what we struggled with. We now have Parra as a 4th OF which confuses me as to what is the plan in regards to Parra, first he is the great prospect who will be the future, then is demoted to the 4th of spot, then earned a starting spot and now he's back to the platoon role? Of course there is the money spent I don't see how spending all this money on area we already good at. Had this money been spent on an IF or another pitcher I would have been alright with it but just can't say the same about Kubel. Sorry for the long rant but this doesn't make sense to me.

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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:49 am 
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I would like to know the magic dust that Gerardo Parra sprinkles that makes people think he is an above average corner outfielder. He hit 8 HRs and 46 RBIs last year in his career year. If Chris young put up those types of numbers over a season,people would be chasing him out of town, and he plays a position where sacrificing offense for defense is acceptable.

Kubel could match Gerardo Parra's "career year" in HRs and RBIs before the All Star break next year.

And before anyone says, "Well that is because Parra hit 8th", he hit 8th because when they put him anywhere else, it exposed just how unproductive he is. The only reason he hit better this year is because he got a lot of intentional walks in front of the pitcher, which boosted his OBP, the only significant change over his career norms. Minus OBP, his 2009 season is almost identical to 2011.

Yes his defense is good, but defense in left field is not exactly important. Everyone here watched Gonzo play out there for years, and even during the good years you had to close your eyes and hope for the best. And by all accounts, unlike Gonzo, Kubel has a good arm.

We have Kubel signed between 29 and 31, which if he is on the wrong side of 30, he is barely on the wrong side of 30. People are arguing for Beltran and he is 35 and will probably get 3 years and 30 million + dollars.

Kubel will hit in the middle of the order and protect Upton as a left handed power hitter, something Parra can never do...unless you think a guy who's single season HR total in any season (majors or minors) is 8 is suddenly going to develop power out of the blue.

And yet if you listened to the comments from Diamondback fans today, you would think we had just relegated Willie Mays to the bench.

I will admit, he has never been "my guy" and I am not his biggest fan. He did win me over last year with his defense and his attitude. That HR off Kuo still makes me smile. But he hasn't ever exactly put up offensive numbers to prove me wrong, including last years career year (when he is not getting free passes because he hits in front of the pitcher.).

I know I will probably be hammered for this stance by everyone, and that is fine. And maybe my stance is wrong, I have eaten my negative opinions about players before and I have no problem doing so (especially when it is a Dback player who proves me wrong), but I think you should have some power in the lineup at certain positions and left field is one of them.

Kubel is more likely to provide that than Parra is, and to me, Parra is now right where he belongs, as a 4th outfielder/late inning defensive replacement.

Just my 2 cents as the newest member of the Jason Kubel fan club. You can start calling him "YBC's guy" when he hits these things called Home runs that some people like to see from their left fielder. Just kidding. Truthfully, he was nowhere near my list of players I was thinking about adding this off season, but I don't think when you compare his contract to what other OFers are getting it is very bad at all, and I think he could really help us over the next couple years.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:02 am 
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Once again....both are lefties.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 7:46 am 
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YBC-Dog wrote:
I would like to know the magic dust that Gerardo Parra sprinkles that makes people think he is an above average corner outfielder. He hit 8 HRs and 46 RBIs last year in his career year.


Pretty simple for me. All things equal would have rather have Kubel than Parra? yes. Would I rather have Kubel than Parra plus $7.5mil? no. To me Kubel isn't worth the additional $7.5mil as I think that money would have been better allocated elsewhere.

Now if Kubel goes out and plays 140+ games and hits .275 with 25HR and 90RBI then it would be worth it. But I don't think that is what will happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:37 am 
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The point about batting 8th is a good one Parra had something like a .387 obp in the 8th spot in about half of his pa's.

As to Parra being above average he was 9th out of 26 in fWar (taking defense into account) among lf with 400 pa's. He was 11 in wRC+ (just offense). That is above average. By way of illustration (and there are others) Parra was ahead in wRC+ of Soriano, Bay, Ibanez, Crawford, Prado, Wells and Pierre.

The team is better with Kubel than without him. Just not $7,500,000 better.

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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:38 am 
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YBC-Dog wrote:
If Chris young put up those types of numbers over a season,people would be chasing him out of town, and he plays a position where sacrificing offense for defense is acceptable.


:idea: I've got a solution for your no power from LFer Parra dilemma. Whenever CY comes up to bat tell youself he is the LFer and when Parra comes up to bat tell yourself he is the CFer. :geek:


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:05 am 
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stu wrote:
The point about batting 8th is a good one Parra had something like a .387 obp in the 8th spot in about half of his pa's.

As to Parra being above average he was 9th out of 26 in fWar (taking defense into account) among lf with 400 pa's. He was 11 in wRC+ (just offense). That is above average. By way of illustration (and there are others) Parra was ahead in wRC+ of Soriano, Bay, Ibanez, Crawford, Prado, Wells and Pierre.

The team is better with Kubel than without him. Just not $7,500,000 better.

Then to me that says that fWar overvalues defense.

And that list you gave (sans Prado) is not exactly a ringing endorsement. He's better than Soriano, Crawford, Wells, and Pierre? Setting the bar pretty low.

At least some people are now saying the team is better with Kubel than without him, which is progress on the stuff I was reading yesterday.

You are always going to have to overpay on the FA market, especially when guys like Willingham and Cuddyer are getting the contracts they are getting. It sounds like 13M wasn't enough to close the deal with Kuroda either. If Towers had brought in a reclamation project to play left field every day, people would have complained about "dumpster diving", and if he had traded for someone, people would have complained about the prospects we gave up.

Basically the only way people would have been pleased is if he somehow miraculously managed to bring in Beltran in for about half the money he will get on the FA market.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:07 am 
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I think the way people feel about this signing is TOTALLY dependent upon how they feel about Parra: Is he going to continue to improve, or was 2011 the best he can be? I will be VERY happy to be wrong, but I believe that Parra has basically peaked. (And I also totally agree with YBC Dog's excellent post.)


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:23 am 
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Im thinking FREE PARRA T Shirts coming soon. :lol:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/1 ... #storyjump


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 10:15 am 
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I like Kubel as well but wish that the money spent went for help on the IF or more pitching. But oh well hopefully has a great year and if he does that will make the lineup much more formidable. Welcome to the Phoenix Jason.

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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:37 am 
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I have had trouble explaining this concept on other threads so bear with me. before you can say if someone or a team is doing good or doing poorly, I think you need to see how others are doing. Parra was claimed not to be an above average lf. I looked at fangraphs and he is above average overall and in hitting. You need to look at the other players to detemine if a player is average or not. That is the puropse of the list.

As to hitting 8th, Sutton and Grace keep saying that hitting 8 is very hard and hurts a hitter, not helps them. Are they incorrect?

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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:57 am 
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So Parra is a "professional NL 8 hole hitter"?

:lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:14 pm 
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I am saying that unless Parra can significantly increase his power, he is not worthy of a starting corner OF spot on a major league team, and the odds of that happening are slim and none. Or he could learn how to steal 30 + bases a year and make himself more valuable that way and turn himself into a leadoff hitter, but that isn't happening either. He is a guy who can't hit for power, can't steal bases, can't get on base (unless he is walked in front of the pitcher), grounds into a lot of double plays.

It would not be unrealistic for Kubel to hit more HRs and drive in more runs in the first half than Parra did in his entire season last year. Heck, he could hit more in the 1st half than Parra has in his entire career (16). And he will do it from the middle of the lineup, which when Parra hits at the top or the middle of the lineup he stinks and they move him back to the 8th hole, where apparently he has become a pro.

I do not see what makes him anything more than a 4th outfielder and I haven't seen since he was first called up. I don't care about the black holes on other teams, I care about the black hole in left field on my team.

Let Bloomquist or Hill/Roberts (whichever one regresses) walk in front of the pitcher and hit 8th.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 12:52 pm 
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If Parra isn't worthy of a starting OF spot, Jason Kubel isn't either. Unless you just have this stubborn notion in your head that LF has to mean power hitting.

This signing would make a certain deal of sense if we had unlimited payroll, but it's just too much money for us.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 1:22 pm 
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Yes, I think your starting left fielder has to bring something to the table offensively, whether that is power or speed or the ability to take a walk and get on base. Parra is good at none of these and only looks like a capable MLB hitter when he is hitting in front of a pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 2:12 pm 
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I think I figured it out.....

KT thought next year was 2013 with the 40 + interleague games on the schedule. He accidentally made this deal a year too early

Kubel Games played in OF and DH by season

Code:
                       
Year         Age  OF  DH
2004          22  10   9
2006          24  37  30
2007          25  84  36
2008          26  50  85
2009          27  59  82
2010          28  99  42
2011          29  58  37
       7 Seasons 397 321


You see...Kubel has never played 100 games in the field in his entire major league career. (Thanks Jim McLennan again for pointing this out) Now if he had a RIGHT HANDED caddy to platoon with him in LF, like oh...say a Colin Cowgill or someone like that, than this might make sense.

I dunno...maybe they sell high on Parra, get something for him, and also fill in another outfielder of the right handed variety to platoon with Kubel. Once again the roster construction (postion player side) seems so clunky and doesn't make a lot of sense. But the offseason isn't over, so maybe there is something else coming that will help clear up this mess.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Kubel signed with dbacks
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2011 4:14 pm 
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You'd think with Oakland's lack of OF depth and Parra's very affordable contract, he would have been a logical fit there.

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