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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 7:54 am 
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Now that the emotion of the moments are over, it's back to analysis mode. Unfortunately the strikeouts are still an issue. He has to dramtically reduce his strikeouts or this comp list isn't gong to change much:


For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 22 to 24, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=110, PA<=225, SO>.28*PA and At least 150 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+


Code:
                                                                                               
Rk             Player OPS+  PA SO Year Age  Tm  G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1        Craig Wilson  146 183 53 2001  24 PIT 88 158 27 49  3  1 13  32 15 .310 .390 .589 .979
2            Sam Horn  142 177 55 1987  23 BOS 46 158 31 44  7  0 14  34 17 .278 .356 .589 .945
3         Kyle Blanks  137 172 55 2009  22 SDP 54 148 24 37  9  0 10  22 18 .250 .355 .514 .868
4    Paul Goldschmidt  117 177 53 2011  23 ARI 48 156 28 39  9  1  8  26 20 .250 .333 .474 .808
5     Russell Branyan  115 220 76 2000  24 CLE 67 193 32 46  7  2 16  38 22 .238 .327 .544 .871


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 8:15 am 
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yuck

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 9:06 am 
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It should be noted that of those guys, only Branyan really failed because of strikeout woes. The other 3 were really just playing way over their head their first season, and had some serious drops in either power or BABIP. And Branyan's K% rate was through the roof, higher than what Goldschmidt did this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:08 pm 
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Krodis wrote:
It should be noted that of those guys, only Branyan really failed because of strikeout woes. The other 3 were really just playing way over their head their first season, and had some serious drops in either power or BABIP. And Branyan's K% rate was through the roof, higher than what Goldschmidt did this year.


It's interesting to go and click on their minor league careers and look at the numbers in the year or years just before being called up to majors. Somewhat similar to Goldy's year. (Except Branyan, who couldn't hit for average in the minors)

Craig Wilson actually had a decent career and was quite useful for 4 seasons AFTER his rookie year. He put up a 116 OPS+ over the next 4 seasons. So while not quite up to Rookie levels, he was OK. (Big platoon split for him...he absolutely killed lefties). His K% in his rookie year was 29%. Then over his next 3 years he averaged 26% K rate. But in his 4th year it went back up to 29% and then over 30% in subsequent years and he was out of baseball shortly after.

Blanks saw his K rate soar from 32% his rookie year to 38% his second. This past year he was at 27%.

Sam Horn, a legend to Red Sox fanboys everywhere, had a couple of pretty good seasons after his rookie year. (90-91 combined 128 OPS+). But his K rate dropped from 31% his rookie year to 25% the next 4 seasons, which is why he managed to have some success..But when it went back up over 30% and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter.

Branyan of course never did get his K Rate under 30%, and for those of us that always wondered what Branyan would look like if he were just given a full time job, we got our answer when Mark Reynolds came along.

And of course Reynolds started off his first couple years with very high BABIP's, but then his BABIP dropped off the table along with his line drive rate.

In summary, the moral of this story is 30% K rates are bad, and it's almost impossible to sustain a successful major league career with K rates that high. Goldschmidt needs to lower his K rate to have a chance at SUSTAINED major league success. 29-30% isn't gonna cut it. We can sit here and speculate whether or not he will lower the K rate. The fact that he lowered it in AA this year does gives hope that with further time in MLB he will adjust. But until he does it, he hasn't done it. And what we do know for certain is that 30% is not workable long term.

Thats my story and I'm sticking to it.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 12, 2011 2:22 pm 
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Nice breakdown!

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 1:01 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Krodis wrote:
It should be noted that of those guys, only Branyan really failed because of strikeout woes. The other 3 were really just playing way over their head their first season, and had some serious drops in either power or BABIP. And Branyan's K% rate was through the roof, higher than what Goldschmidt did this year.


It's interesting to go and click on their minor league careers and look at the numbers in the year or years just before being called up to majors. Somewhat similar to Goldy's year. (Except Branyan, who couldn't hit for average in the minors)

Craig Wilson actually had a decent career and was quite useful for 4 seasons AFTER his rookie year. He put up a 116 OPS+ over the next 4 seasons. So while not quite up to Rookie levels, he was OK. (Big platoon split for him...he absolutely killed lefties). His K% in his rookie year was 29%. Then over his next 3 years he averaged 26% K rate. But in his 4th year it went back up to 29% and then over 30% in subsequent years and he was out of baseball shortly after.

Blanks saw his K rate soar from 32% his rookie year to 38% his second. This past year he was at 27%.

Sam Horn, a legend to Red Sox fanboys everywhere, had a couple of pretty good seasons after his rookie year. (90-91 combined 128 OPS+). But his K rate dropped from 31% his rookie year to 25% the next 4 seasons, which is why he managed to have some success..But when it went back up over 30% and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter.

Branyan of course never did get his K Rate under 30%, and for those of us that always wondered what Branyan would look like if he were just given a full time job, we got our answer when Mark Reynolds came along.

And of course Reynolds started off his first couple years with very high BABIP's, but then his BABIP dropped off the table along with his line drive rate.

In summary, the moral of this story is 30% K rates are bad, and it's almost impossible to sustain a successful major league career with K rates that high. Goldschmidt needs to lower his K rate to have a chance at SUSTAINED major league success. 29-30% isn't gonna cut it. We can sit here and speculate whether or not he will lower the K rate. The fact that he lowered it in AA this year does gives hope that with further time in MLB he will adjust. But until he does it, he hasn't done it. And what we do know for certain is that 30% is not workable long term.

Thats my story and I'm sticking to it.


I appreciate the tl;dr you put at the end.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:52 pm 
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Hey, gotta help out those with the attention span of a nat too. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 7:07 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Hey, gotta help out those with the attention span of a nat too. ;)


The Zimmermans are offended! ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 7:46 pm 
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The Nats play in DC. Gnats are annoying little flies that have no apparent attention span. Cough.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:00 pm 
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BOND wrote:
The Nats play in DC. Gnats are annoying little flies that have no apparent attention span. Cough.

Gnats are from San Francisco.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:33 pm 
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dbacks_Nation wrote:
BOND wrote:
The Nats play in DC. Gnats are annoying little flies that have no apparent attention span. Cough.

Gnats are from San Francisco.


Same thing

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 13, 2011 8:54 pm 
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Ha! Indeed... :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 14, 2011 10:06 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Now that the emotion of the moments are over, it's back to analysis mode. Unfortunately the strikeouts are still an issue. He has to dramtically reduce his strikeouts or this comp list isn't gong to change much:


For single seasons, From 1901 to 2011, From Age 22 to 24, (requiring onbase_plus_slugging_plus>=110, PA<=225, SO>.28*PA and At least 150 plate appearances), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+


Code:
                                                                                               
Rk             Player OPS+  PA SO Year Age  Tm  G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
1        Craig Wilson  146 183 53 2001  24 PIT 88 158 27 49  3  1 13  32 15 .310 .390 .589 .979
2            Sam Horn  142 177 55 1987  23 BOS 46 158 31 44  7  0 14  34 17 .278 .356 .589 .945
3         Kyle Blanks  137 172 55 2009  22 SDP 54 148 24 37  9  0 10  22 18 .250 .355 .514 .868
4    Paul Goldschmidt  117 177 53 2011  23 ARI 48 156 28 39  9  1  8  26 20 .250 .333 .474 .808
5     Russell Branyan  115 220 76 2000  24 CLE 67 193 32 46  7  2 16  38 22 .238 .327 .544 .871


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You mean he is not the next Pujols like my radio told me? ;) :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 16, 2011 6:28 pm 
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Goldschmidt seems to be similar to Trumbo on the Angels. .260 BA and 30 HR's, give or take.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2011 12:40 pm 
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On a philly board, I recall somebody comparing Goldschmidt to Ryan Howard.

Obviously LHB vs RHB is a big difference, but it seems like there are a lot of similarities--small-college sluggers drafted in the middle rounds, cursed with questionable bat speed (panned by Keith Law!) and 30% K rates, who forced their way onto prospect lists with their production.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/howarry01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml

Howard's 24yo season seems to match up with Goldy's 2011.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:39 pm 
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Keith Law was on Doug and Wolf today on KTAR. At the 6 minute mark Wolf asks him why he isn't a Goldschmidt fan.

http://arizonasports.com/templates/audi ... 539&type=s

Nothing new.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2011 11:12 pm 
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FanGraphs article on PG44. Sounds like Bill James' 2012 projections like him.

edit: Bill James' 2012 projections on Fangraphs: .266/93R/32HR/99RBI/.883 OPS. :shock:

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 9:48 am 
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FanGraphs 1B positional ranking

Goldy/Overbay come in here at #11, also a fair ranking like we saw behind the dish

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... irst-base/

Quote:
Paul Goldschmidt is a fun player. Who knows how long the fun will last, given his skill-set, but hey, I like home runs and walks. He could probably hit 30 for the Diamondbacks if he got all of the plate appearances. However, the Diamondbacks brought Lyle Overbay home, and given that he hits from the other side of the plate from Goldschmidt and cannot play anywhere but first, they seem like they want to give him playing time. Better him than Geoff “I’m still in the league?” Blum, I suppose.


Giants ranked #14 which is laughable unless they give Belt all of the playing time over Huff, which doesnt seem likely considering they didnt last year when it was the clear move as well.

Dodgers 22, Rockies 25, Padres 29

Think Alonso is getting undervalued for the Padres here, but we'll see how PetCo affects his #s


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 06, 2012 10:00 pm 
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I'm not a big believer in Alonso. His minor league numbers just have never shown elite talent.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 6:50 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Krodis wrote:
It should be noted that of those guys, only Branyan really failed because of strikeout woes. The other 3 were really just playing way over their head their first season, and had some serious drops in either power or BABIP. And Branyan's K% rate was through the roof, higher than what Goldschmidt did this year.


It's interesting to go and click on their minor league careers and look at the numbers in the year or years just before being called up to majors. Somewhat similar to Goldy's year. (Except Branyan, who couldn't hit for average in the minors)

Craig Wilson actually had a decent career and was quite useful for 4 seasons AFTER his rookie year. He put up a 116 OPS+ over the next 4 seasons. So while not quite up to Rookie levels, he was OK. (Big platoon split for him...he absolutely killed lefties). His K% in his rookie year was 29%. Then over his next 3 years he averaged 26% K rate. But in his 4th year it went back up to 29% and then over 30% in subsequent years and he was out of baseball shortly after.

Blanks saw his K rate soar from 32% his rookie year to 38% his second. This past year he was at 27%.

Sam Horn, a legend to Red Sox fanboys everywhere, had a couple of pretty good seasons after his rookie year. (90-91 combined 128 OPS+). But his K rate dropped from 31% his rookie year to 25% the next 4 seasons, which is why he managed to have some success..But when it went back up over 30% and he was out of baseball shortly thereafter.

Branyan of course never did get his K Rate under 30%, and for those of us that always wondered what Branyan would look like if he were just given a full time job, we got our answer when Mark Reynolds came along.

And of course Reynolds started off his first couple years with very high BABIP's, but then his BABIP dropped off the table along with his line drive rate.

In summary, the moral of this story is 30% K rates are bad, and it's almost impossible to sustain a successful major league career with K rates that high. Goldschmidt needs to lower his K rate to have a chance at SUSTAINED major league success. 29-30% isn't gonna cut it. We can sit here and speculate whether or not he will lower the K rate. The fact that he lowered it in AA this year does gives hope that with further time in MLB he will adjust. But until he does it, he hasn't done it. And what we do know for certain is that 30% is not workable long term. :evil:

Thats my story and I'm sticking to it.


bump

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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