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Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
Poll ended at Fri Feb 15, 2013 1:59 am
Grits a Hit !! Playoffs here we come ! 7%  7%  [ 3 ]
A Bit of Grit: Finish over .500 but miss playoffs. 59%  59%  [ 26 ]
Grit turns to Shit: Sub .500 record, 34%  34%  [ 15 ]
Total votes : 44
 
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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 01, 2013 4:50 pm 
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Ryan wrote:
levski wrote:
Anyone remember Elmer Dessens? Say what you will, but he really glued the Dbacks rotation together in 2003...


<insert full-body shudder here> Ah, Dessens. One of only two Diamondbacks (the other being Donut Boy) whom I've openly -- and loudly -- heckled at the ballpark.



Dessens had a 92 ERA+ and a 8-8 record in his first year as a D Back. In his second year he had a 97 ERA+, but was 1-6 .

In his 261 Innings as a D Back he had a 94 ERA+

No Current D Backs starter other than Patrick Corbin has an ERA+ over 85

Corbin 175
Miley 85
Cahill 83
McCarthy 78
Kennedy 73

And Skaggs has an 83 in 16 IP and Delgado has an 86 in 20 IP.

Yes folks, Elmer Dessens would be a CONSIDERABLE improvement over every D Back Starter besides Corbin.


Are we Clear ?

Crystal !

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 7:18 am 
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Was tallking to a friend of mine last night about how similar this feels to 2008, when we could see the train wreck happening in slow motion and it was only a matter of time before they coughed up the division lead......even though they lead the division for so many days that year.

They are 42-40. Their Pythag is 42-40. The run differential is 346-340. They have a 94 OPS+ and a 101 ERA+, but that is propped up by Patrick Corbin.

They are who we thought they were.

How ironic is it that Hill comes back, hits well, and the offense STILL can't score enough runs, thanks to Goldy and Parra going into the tank the last week.
( And Didi continuing his regression and Kubel slumping again too)

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:28 am 
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Slow motion train wreck.

Perfect description

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Maybe everything Towers touches turns to dung because he touches it long after it's already been digested and has lost all nutritive value.



Might be the greatest post in the history of this board


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:45 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Yes folks, Elmer Dessens would be a CONSIDERABLE improvement over every D Back Starter besides Corbin.[/b][/color]

Are we Clear ?

Crystal !


Right, he could really help glue together this year's rotation as well. AMIRITE?

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#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 8:49 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Was tallking to a friend of mine last night about how similar this feels to 2008, when we could see the train wreck happening in slow motion and it was only a matter of time before they coughed up the division lead. ( And Didi continuing his regression and Kubel slumping again too)


You don't have to go all the way back to 2008... you can compare to last season, 2012... average rotation, shaky bullpen, inconsistent offense...

It is so ironic that Kevin Towers spent so much time trying to rip apart last year's team, and ended up with a copy of... last year's team...

Mark Twain is credited with having said that "History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme a lot." Who is with me, folks?

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 02, 2013 4:50 pm 
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I'm with you, lev! :lol:

The more things change, the more they stay the same... The Towers Legacy...

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Cautiously optimistic about the future... But the bag stays on until the new FO shows us how things will be better in 2015 (and beyond).


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 5:25 am 
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EvilJuan wrote:
I'm with you, lev! :lol:

The more things change, the more they stay the same... The Towers Legacy...


Do you guys think it's time Ken Kendrick and Derrick Hall fired Kevin Towers and brought in a GM with a proven track record of building solid bullpens with undervalued relievers on a shoestring budget?

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 5:27 am 
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EvilJuan wrote:
The Towers Legacy...


Starring Heath Bell as the hot chick? No thanks!

Image

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 9:18 am 
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levski wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
I'm with you, lev! :lol:

The more things change, the more they stay the same... The Towers Legacy...


Do you guys think it's time Ken Kendrick and Derrick Hall fired Kevin Towers and brought in a GM with a proven track record of building solid bullpens with undervalued relievers on a shoestring budget?



When adjusted for Ballpark context, Towers bullpens in San Diego were usually below average.

True Fact.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 03, 2013 10:39 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
levski wrote:
EvilJuan wrote:
I'm with you, lev! :lol:

The more things change, the more they stay the same... The Towers Legacy...


Do you guys think it's time Ken Kendrick and Derrick Hall fired Kevin Towers and brought in a GM with a proven track record of building solid bullpens with undervalued relievers on a shoestring budget?



When adjusted for Ballpark context, Towers bullpens in San Diego were usually below average.

True Fact.


The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world that ballpark context didn't exist.

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:34 pm 
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Projected Standings from Fangraphs HERE

82-80, 2 GB of Dodgers. :roll:

Baseball Prospectus saying more or less the same thing

Cool Standings still likes the D Backs though.

All to close to call of course.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 11, 2013 6:13 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Projected Standings from Fangraphs HERE

82-80, 2 GB of Dodgers. :roll:

Baseball Prospectus saying more or less the same thing

Cool Standings still likes the D Backs though.

All to close to call of course.



Check out the 2008 NL West standings, compare to projected Fangraphs full season standings:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2008.shtml

In 2008, the Dodgers had MR99. This year, the Dodgers have YP66.

The storylines just write themselves, folks...

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 15, 2013 10:15 pm 
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This team started out 5-1, taking 2 of 3 from St. Louis and sweeping Milwaukee,

Since then, they are 45-44, and have been outscored by 1, 363-362

This is a .500 team that might win 85 games somehow.

Whether or not thats enough to sneak into the playoffs depends on whether the Dodgers implode or not. But if Kershaw and Greinke continue to pitch this well, they will pass us by, despite their own warts.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 9:18 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
This team started out 5-1, taking 2 of 3 from St. Louis and sweeping Milwaukee,

Since then, they are 45-44, and have been outscored by 1, 363-362

This is a .500 team that might win 85 games somehow.

Whether or not thats enough to sneak into the playoffs depends on whether the Dodgers implode or not. But if Kershaw and Greinke continue to pitch this well, they will pass us by, despite their own warts.


The Dodgers have the better lineup and rotation. Their bullpen (on paper) is shaky, but in reality, they've been as good as the Dbacks'. And they are certain to blow up the trade market and add some expensive pieces very soon.

My gut says the Dodgers are in first place by the end of July and cruise to a division title.

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 10:12 am 
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July schedule for the Diamondbacks is still pretty cushy (home against the Cubs and Padres, but at San Fran and Tampa Bay), but August is a killer (at Rangers, Red Sox, Pirates, Reds and Phillies, home against Rays, Mets, Orioles, Padres and Giants). I think their pitching wilts under the August heat and the Dodgers catch them sometime during the month.

BTW, the Dodgers have a fairly tough rest of July (at Washington and Toronto, home against Cincinnati and the Yankees), but their August is decidedly easier than Arizona's (at Cubs, St Louis, Philly and Florida, home against Tampa Bay, Mets, Boston, Cubs and San Diego). I think AZ needs to get their lead up to about 5 by the end of July if they stand any kind of chance at all.


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 11:07 am 
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We also have 7 games head-to-head against LA. Play well in those games, as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 16, 2013 1:00 pm 
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David B wrote:
July schedule for the Diamondbacks is still pretty cushy (home against the Cubs and Padres, but at San Fran and Tampa Bay), but August is a killer (at Rangers, Red Sox, Pirates, Reds and Phillies, home against Rays, Mets, Orioles, Padres and Giants). I think their pitching wilts under the August heat and the Dodgers catch them sometime during the month.

BTW, the Dodgers have a fairly tough rest of July (at Washington and Toronto, home against Cincinnati and the Yankees), but their August is decidedly easier than Arizona's (at Cubs, St Louis, Philly and Florida, home against Tampa Bay, Mets, Boston, Cubs and San Diego). I think AZ needs to get their lead up to about 5 by the end of July if they stand any kind of chance at all.


I agree. The test will be if they can turn things around and regain the lead in September.

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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 19, 2013 7:52 am 
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http://baseballprospectus.com/odds/

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.as ... dings#NL-W

If anything, there will be drama. And meaningful games in September. Whether fans will show up to see it as a different matter altogether...

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 11:20 am 
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The Dodgers have a half game lead now. I'm not optimistic about getting it back from them. They have great starting pitching, pretty good relievers, and the hitters are finally pulling their weight.


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 Post subject: Re: Will D Backs Grit their way to the playoffs in 2013 ?
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 1:57 pm 
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levski wrote:
My gut says the Dodgers are in first place by the end of July and cruise to a division title.

Agreed. The Dodgers were always going to be the team with the superior talent, the dbacks' only chance was to find a spark, some momentum, and good fortune. The Dbacks had the good fortune, with all the Dodgers' injuries, but there's been no spark or enthusiasm, it's more like a collection of cubicle workers grinding through the season; whereas the Dodgers, despite all the setbacks, found the spark, got a boost of energy, and are now riding the wave of momentum. There's 50,000 fans packing the ballpark every game, all-stars playing up to the stage. Unless every player in the dbacks clubhouse mysteriously discovers a 4-leaf clover up their ass and catches every break imaginable, the talent and enthusiasm in LA will be too much to overcome.

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