Register    Login    Forum    Search    FAQ

Board index » Baseball Matters » Rest of the West




 Page 24 of 25 [ 491 posts ] Go to page Previous  1 ... 21, 22, 23, 24, 25  Next



Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 11764
6/120

_________________
trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 12:28 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:29 pm
Posts: 16
Padres offering 5 years 90 to 95 million


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 11:06 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3490
Location: Katy, TX
It would be wonderful for SFG to sink that $$ into a declining asset. The only hope for the Dbax is that LA/SF spend their money foolishly.

_________________
Vin Scully.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:12 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 9:29 pm
Posts: 16
Red Sox offering 5 years 95 million


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 22, 2014 12:23 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3490
Location: Katy, TX
That probably pushes the Giants into the 6yr/$115M range, with a club-friendly structure.

_________________
Vin Scully.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 5:40 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 8216
Location: AZ
Jon Heyman @JonHeymanCBS
Sandoval has agreement to go to the red sox for 5 years, close to 100M

_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 24, 2014 4:38 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 11764
shoewizard wrote:
TAP wrote:


Here is some back of the Napkin stuff for how I view Pablo.

Over the last 3 seasons he has a weighted avg of 2.9 WAR, (Simple 3,2,1 weighting)

Scenario 1 is realistic , Scenario 2 is Optimistic

Scenario 1

WAR Projection/ WAR Dollar Value

2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 2.5 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 15.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.0 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 13.0 M
2018 Age 31 1.5 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 10.5M
2019 Age 32 1.0 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 7.5 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M

6 Year Total 11 WAR, 71.5 M Value, 45.5M of the value or 64% comes in the first 3 years.

In this scenario giving him an avg annual of 15 M over 6 years , total 90 M would leave a team exposed to his decline/injury concerns and coming up about 20 M short on value, give or take.

Scenario 2
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 3.0 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 18.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.5 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 16.25 M
2018 Age 31 2.0 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 14 M
2019 Age 32 1.5 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 11.25 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M

6 yr total 13 WAR 85 M Value, with about 52M or 61% of the value coming in the first 3 years.

In this scenario he maintains the 3 WAR level the next two years, and declines gradually from there.

Essentially what I see with Sandoval is there is no upside to a 6 year 90 M deal. That is the absolute Max he would be likely to earn, unless he gets better than he has been the last 3 seasons in terms of both health and performance. Keep in mind I am increasing the value per WAR considerably so that offsets inflation and cost of money, although some would argue I am not increasing the value per WAR quickly enough.


Considering his popularity, post season performance, brand value, etc, if I am the Giants I would consider the 6/90 offer, but absolutely no higher than that. If I am another team there is no way I look at more than 5/75 for Pablo.

But somebody will overpay. My guess is if he has to accept a 5 year deal, he gets 18M a year, or 5/90, and he might get some crazy team to pay him 6/120.

Thats a big range from my Max values of 5/75-6/90, and the range of expected actual contract of 5/90-6/120, but thats the crazy world we live in. ;)


8-)

(ok, it was a big range :oops: )

_________________
trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 08, 2014 4:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:46 pm
Posts: 356
Location: Phoenix
At Winter meetings, Ken Rosenthal says that Jon Lester apparently has narrowed his choice between Cubs and Giants...... and looks like it will be the Cubs as of 12/10/14

_________________
Scouting for baseball fans in Nepal


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 19, 2014 4:06 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 8216
Location: AZ
The Marlins and Giants are closing in on a deal that would send third baseman Casey McGehee to San Francisco, Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel reports on Twitter. Minor league pitching would likely head back to Miami in the deal.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/m ... trade.html

_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:13 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 7:48 am
Posts: 5287
Location: The carpark outside Milliways
Romo gets a two-year deal for $15M: Giants officially re-sign Romo

_________________
Meet the new new FO... Same as the old new FO. The bag may be permanent.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 05, 2015 10:17 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 11764
Hunter Pence out 6-8 weeks fractured left forearm, from HBP

_________________
trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2015 3:24 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 11764
shoewizard wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
TAP wrote:


Here is some back of the Napkin stuff for how I view Pablo.

Over the last 3 seasons he has a weighted avg of 2.9 WAR, (Simple 3,2,1 weighting)

Scenario 1 is realistic , Scenario 2 is Optimistic

Scenario 1

WAR Projection/ WAR Dollar Value

2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 2.5 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 15.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.0 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 13.0 M
2018 Age 31 1.5 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 10.5M
2019 Age 32 1.0 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 7.5 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M

6 Year Total 11 WAR, 71.5 M Value, 45.5M of the value or 64% comes in the first 3 years.

In this scenario giving him an avg annual of 15 M over 6 years , total 90 M would leave a team exposed to his decline/injury concerns and coming up about 20 M short on value, give or take.

Scenario 2
2015 age 28 3.0 WAR x 5.5M WAR = 17.5 M
2016 age 29 3.0 WAR x 6.0M WAR = 18.0 M
2017 Age 30 2.5 WAR x 6.5M WAR = 16.25 M
2018 Age 31 2.0 WAR x 7.0 M WAR = 14 M
2019 Age 32 1.5 WAR x 7.5 M WAR = 11.25 M
2020 Age 33 1.0 WAR x 8.0 M WAR = 8.0 M

6 yr total 13 WAR 85 M Value, with about 52M or 61% of the value coming in the first 3 years.

In this scenario he maintains the 3 WAR level the next two years, and declines gradually from there.

Essentially what I see with Sandoval is there is no upside to a 6 year 90 M deal. That is the absolute Max he would be likely to earn, unless he gets better than he has been the last 3 seasons in terms of both health and performance. Keep in mind I am increasing the value per WAR considerably so that offsets inflation and cost of money, although some would argue I am not increasing the value per WAR quickly enough.


Considering his popularity, post season performance, brand value, etc, if I am the Giants I would consider the 6/90 offer, but absolutely no higher than that. If I am another team there is no way I look at more than 5/75 for Pablo.

But somebody will overpay. My guess is if he has to accept a 5 year deal, he gets 18M a year, or 5/90, and he might get some crazy team to pay him 6/120.

Thats a big range from my Max values of 5/75-6/90, and the range of expected actual contract of 5/90-6/120, but thats the crazy world we live in. ;)


8-)

(ok, it was a big range :oops: )


Or he could crash and burn and totally suck and soon become the most hated man in boston.

BR WAR has him -05, -3 batting runs, -9 fielding, and -1 running to go with a .664 OPS

UZR doesn't hate him quite as much, only -5 fielding, so war only -0.1 :twisted:

Ouch

_________________
trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Sat Jun 13, 2015 11:56 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 9:29 pm
Posts: 3490
Location: Katy, TX
Too bad the Giants aren't on the hook of that.

_________________
Vin Scully.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:11 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 8216
Location: AZ
Tim Brown @TBrownYahoo
Samardzija gets 5 yrs, $90m from Giants.

_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:25 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 8216
Location: AZ
The #SFGiants reach an agreement with Johnny Cueto, per @Buster_ESPN

_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:24 pm
Posts: 8216
Location: AZ
6 years 130 via Heyman

_________________
Winning may not be everything, but losing has little to recommend it.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 2:45 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2164
Location: Portland, OR
misterx wrote:
6 years 130 via Heyman


So, $10 M more than the Dbacks offer. The contract also has an opt out clause after two years.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 14, 2015 5:42 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 11764
I said on Snakepit they could get him for 6/132 and he would take it. The D Backs would have to take Payroll up to about 107 M to be able to afford that...but considering it was 112 on the slop that Towers put together in 2013 and they have the new tv deal, they could have done that.

Giants > D Backs

_________________
trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 11:02 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 10:59 am
Posts: 396
Arizona should've signed Cueto or Zimmerman and then used the non-Inciarte prospects from the Miller trade to address other needs. They still wouldn't have had a top-15 payroll in that scenario and it would be a clearly superior team to what they have right now.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: Giants News
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 15, 2015 12:37 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2164
Location: Portland, OR
Even with boosting the payroll, I don't think the Dbacks would be keen on swapping out a first year arb salary (Miller) for a $110-$130 M long term commitment (Zimmerman/Cueto). They're "going for it," but doing so with a budget. They chose Greinke as their big ticket item.


Top 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
 Page 24 of 25 [ 491 posts ] Go to page Previous  1 ... 21, 22, 23, 24, 25  Next




Board index » Baseball Matters » Rest of the West


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: