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 Post subject: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:13 pm 
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me and dan just posted our top 30 list on the snakepit... I thought it'd be good to start a thread for all the various top prospect lists out there for the diamondbacks. I know sickels will have his top 20 posted in the next week...

here's mine and dan's abbreviated top prospect list
Quote:
1) RHP Jarrod Parker - The only guy in the system who appears to have legitimate ace potential. Mid-90's heat, plus slider, good change, good command, TJ done and over with. What's not to like? A lot of the D-backs' future is built on the right arm of Jarrod Parker - expect to see him in 2011.

Zephon's #1: Jarrod Parker

2) LHP Tyler Skaggs - Certainly far from the majors, but was a legitimate first-round talent (i.e. not sandwich round) who fell because of bonus demands. Since then, he has only improved his stock, and could begin to blow through the system in 2011, starting, but hopefully not finishing, the year at Visalia.

Zephon's #2: Matt Davidson

3) 3B Matt Davidson - What a difference a year makes. Twelve months ago, Davidson was the less-polished, less-likely-to-stay-at-third portion of the Davidson/Borchering corner infield conglomerate, but Davidson has taken both of those distinctions from Borchering with his stellar season.

Zephon's #3: Tyler Skaggs

4) SS Chris Owings - Didn't get to play a full season, but was dazzling when he did. He has a solid chance of staying at short, and could still be an impact-level bat if he had to move to second. It would be nice to see a few more walks, but there's a lot of nice pop in Owings' bat.

Zephon's #4: Chris Owings

5) 3B Bobby Borchering - Blazing end to the year hopes to carry into 2011 at Visalia, an environment in which Borchering's power could go absolutely absurd. It'll be interesting to see where Borchering and Matt Davidson play next year - they split 3B and DH last year, but I don't believe the Cal uses the DH.

Zephon's #5: Bobby Borchering

6) LHP Wade Miley - Completely rebuilt his prospect status this year by racking up tons of ground balls, and enough K's to make up for his walks. Saw his velocity spike into the mid-90's at the end of the year - if that sticks, he could be a force a la Jaime Garcia.

Zephon's #6: Patrick Corbin

7) LHP Patrick Corbin - Many don't believe that the lefty has a serious knockout pitch, but the D-backs think his change-up is plus. Mixes pitches, stays low in the zone, and is left-handed - three ways to stay in the big leagues for a long time.

Zephon's #7: Scottie Allen

8) RHP Scottie Allen - A personal favorite: fastball crept its way into the 90's this year, and his change-up is making serious strides, despite it being the first year he's thrown one. Has the repertoire to start, and even with his funky arm angle, the change-up will help him get left-handed batters out.

Zephon's #8: Wade Miley

9) RHP Chase Anderson - Two words: plus change-up. Anderson used it this year to rack up absurd K-rates that were the best amongst starters in the system. Was put to the 'pen later in the year to keep his innings down, but I see no reason he won't be a starter in 2011.

Zephon's #9: Paul Goldschmidt

10) RHP Charles Brewer - Was absolutely dominant at two levels in 2010, and likely pitched his way to Double-A to begin just his second full-season of pro baseball. The stuff doesn't scream dominant, but it certainly can play into the back-end of the rotation.

Zephon's #10: Charles Brewer

11) CF A.J. Pollock - Missed all of 2010 with a shoulder injury, but came back sizzling in the AFL. His stock has obviously dropped some, but he's still a quick-rising type who the D-backs think can be a regular center fielder. Was named to the AFL Rising Stars Team.

Zephon's #11: Chase Anderson

12) 1B Paul Goldschmidt - One word: power. Loads of it. Gobs of it. Heaping enormous amounts of power. Goldschmidt may not possess m(any) other tools, but his absurd raw power could single-handedly carry him through the minors and into a role as either a regular first baseman, or at least a power-laden bench bat.

Zephon's #12: Collin Cowgill

13) LHP David Holmberg - Lefty with polish of two off-speed offerings. Despite being a high school arm, Holmberg could be a quick-riser through the D-backs' system, beginning with his first full-season assignment to begin 2011, at South Bend. Comparisons to Brett Anderson performance-wise may be unfair, but the bad-bodied lefty comparison makes sense.

Zephon's #13: Mike Belfiore

14) LHP Michael Belfiore - It's nice seeing this team with so many left-handed starting pitching prospects. Belfiore worked as a closer in college, but his four-pitch mix profiles nicely as a starter. He missed some time due a forearm strain this year, which can be an indicator of future elbow problems.

Zephon's #14: Eric Smith

15) OF Wagner Mateo - The sky is the limit for Mateo. Unfortunately, someone as young as this is really difficult to project, because his career could go so many ways. His first exposure to pro ball, however, went extremely well, as he was one of the best bats in the DSL despite his youth. He'll see the states in 2011.

Zephon's #15: David Holmberg

16) OF Ty Linton - Enormous bat speed and raw power are Linton's calling cards, and his athleticism should make a very good defender in a corner outfield position if he doesn't stick in center field (which is not expected). Could be given an aggressive assignment to South Bend to begin 2011, a la Davidson, Owings, and Borchering.

Zephon's #16: Wagner Mateo

17) OF Marc Krauss - Krauss has some solid raw power and a nice bat, but he gets on top of the ball too often and possesses no other tools. Could see the major leagues within a year and a half or so, but I don't see an everyday player here, and I'm also not sold on him passing the Double-A test.

Zephon's #17: A.J. Pollock

18) RHP Kevin Munson - For a team in desperate need of relief arms, Munson is the best pure reliever in the system, despite having just been taken in the 2010 draft. Fastball from 92-94 and wipe-out plus slider profile Munson as a set-up man or a lower-tier closer (i.e. a D-backs closer).

Zephon's #18: Keon Broxton

19) OF Collin Cowgill - Passed the Double-A test with aplomb, but Cowgill's size makes him a guy who is going to have to prove himself year after year as he approaches the big leagues. Will start 2011 in Reno, and could go absolutely ballistic there. If he does, expect him to see time in the outfield for the big-league club this year.

Zephon's #19: Ty Linton

20) RHP Josh Collmenter - Collmenter had a fantastic year in the system, and his funky mechanics will always provide intrigue. He isn't great at producing ground balls, and he works primarily with two pitches - his fastball and change-up. Unless he can tighten his curveball, Collmenter is likely a 'pen arm.

Zephon's #20: Patrick Schuster

21) RHP Eric Smith - Ground ball machine couldn't miss many bats in Low-A or Hi-A ball, so it's hard to believe that he'll miss enough in the big leagues to crack it as a starter. Could be a Qualls-ian (the good version) 'pen arm, though, who can come in in a jam and get a DP.

Zephon's #21: Marc Krauss

22) RHP J.R. Bradley - The D-backs added a bunch of projectable high school arms over the last two years, and Bradley is one of the better ones. Could be given a full-season assignment next year, though there are a lot of guys for just five rotation slots at South Bend. Extended Spring Training followed by Yakima is a possibility.

Zephon's #22: Josh Collmenter

23) RHP Robby Rowland - Another projectable right-hander out of high school. Going into the draft, many felt that Rowland was actually better than Bradley, but the D-backs took Bradley one round before Rowland. His immediate future career path will likely mirror Bradley's, but their long-term career paths will be interesting to follow.

Zephon's #23: Rossmel Perez

24) SS Raul Navarro - Legitimate shortstop prospect who can play the position very well, if Navarro can hit at all as he goes through the minors, he'll be given a chance. It doesn't take much offensively to be a league-average everyday shortstop if you can field.

Zephon's #24: Wes Roemer

25) C Rossmel Perez - Perez has a solid arm behind the plate with nice receiving skills, though his plate-blocking could use a bit of work. Offensively, Perez is an empty contact hitter at this point with some marginal on-base skills, but he's young enough to add bulk and pop.

Zephon's #25: David Nick

26) RHP Bryan Shaw - Short right-hander features a nice fastball/slider combo that wasn't going to last long in the rotation, though it does give him the possibility to be a set-up guy. The team moved him to the 'pen when Wade Miley was promoted to Mobile, and that's the role in which Shaw likely will remain.

Zephon's #26: Kevin Eichhorn

27) RHP Bryan Woodall - Woodall had a fantastic year statistically, though his pure stuff is still a question. His fastball barely reaches the 90 MPH range, though it does have nice sink. His best pitch is his curveball, and it can definitely miss bats in A-ball and Double-A - we'll see if it can in the upper levels.

Zephon's #27: Kevin Munson

28) 3B/1B Ryan Wheeler - A star that has dimmed dramatically over the course of the last year, but don't think that Wheeler has completely fallen off of the map. Wade Miley has shown us how quickly someone can come back from the prospect graveyard. He's 22 years old and already in Double-A, so he's got time.

Zephon's #28: Robby Rowland

29) LHP Patrick Schuster - The thrower of high school no-hitters is another projectable arm, and a projectable lefty arm at that. However, control and delivery issues need to be ironed out before Schuster can utilize his high ground ball rates at the upper levels.

Zephon's #29: J.R. Bradley

30) RHP Kevin Eichhorn - Bloodlines and projectability have always been there, and it's nice to see him finally healthy after getting the obligatory Tommy John surgery out of the way. Missed plenty of bats in Rookie-ball, but given his age, he was supposed to miss that many bats. 2011 is a big test for Eichhorn.

Zephon's #30: James Green

For those familiar with John Sickels' prospect grading system, here are the grades I would tentatively assign to these prospects:

Parker: B+

Skaggs & Davidson: B

Owings through Allen: B- (with Allen a fringe B-/C+ - I doubt others will have him around a B-, but I love the kid)

Anderson through Smith: C+

Bradley etc.: C

While this system is a bit light at the very top, it is becoming surprisingly deep due to the influx from the '09 draft and some impressive rebuilding work from Jerry Dipoto at this year's trade deadline.

Fell free to fire away on what you think I messed up in ranking some of these players, as well as discussing players in the previous posts (#31-50) that you feel belong in these rankings.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:21 pm 
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Keon Broxton shouldnt be 18. Holy moly.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:27 pm 
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For those that dont know, azdsnd=IHSB/Dan

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Last edited by Justin on Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:31 pm 
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Yeah, I should have ranked broxton a hell of a lot lower, but he makes the list mostly based on tools... I would actually drop him down about 10 slots.... dan put a lot more work into his list than i did and it shows...

i'm not really happy with a couple of my rankings(roemer and broxton are too high, wheeler isn't on the list,et cetera) but i didn't really put as much thought into the list as i could and should have. Overall i think my list is decent for an amateur prospector.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:35 pm 
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Yeah - its no big deal - mine would look like crap with the amount of time i woudl spend on it ;)


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 5:37 pm 
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i also think i have david nick ranked a little too high as well.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:10 pm 
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Zephon wrote:
i also think i have david nick ranked a little too high as well.


For what it's worth, some dude commenting on minorleagueball liked Nick more than Owings. The dude was bonkers, but it's not like Nick is without big-time supporters.

I just don't see a tool that I can hang my hat on from what Nick did this year...


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 04, 2010 7:12 pm 
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qudjy1 wrote:
Keon Broxton shouldnt be 18. Holy moly.


I obviously agree in some respect, but I think where I have him, either 38 or 39 I believe, is probably far too low considering that he's the toolsiest player in our system. Yeah, the production stank, but it happens. He could still be something special. Somewhere from 25-on is reasonable.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:46 am 
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Baseball America has released their 2011 Top 10 list, with article as well...no surprise at #1 http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 11157.html

TOP TEN
PROSPECTS
1. Jarrod Parker, rhp
2. Tyler Skaggs, lhp
3. Matt Davidson, 3b
4. Chris Owings, ss
5. Marc Krauss, of
6. A.J. Pollock, of
7. Bobby Borchering, 3b
8. Wade Miley, lhp
9. Patrick Corbin, lhp
10. Keon Broxton, of

BEST
TOOLS
Best Hitter for Average A.J. Pollock
Best Power Hitter Bobby Borchering
Best Strike-Zone Discipline Jake Elmore
Fastest Baserunner Westley Moss
Best Athlete Ty Linton
Best Fastball Jarrod Parker
Best Curveball Tyler Skaggs
Best Slider Jarrod Parker
Best Changeup Chase Anderson
Best Control Chase Anderson
Best Defensive Catcher Rossmel Perez
Best Defensive Infielder Chris Owings
Best Infield Arm Raul Navarro
Best Defensive Outfielder A.J. Pollock
Best Outfield Arm Collin Cowgill

PROJECTED 2014
LINEUP
Catcher Miguel Montero
First Base Bobby Borchering
Second Base Chris Owings
Third Base Matt Davidson
Shortstop Stephen Drew
Left Field Marc Krauss
Center Field Chris Young
Right Field Justin Upton
No. 1 Starter Jarrod Parker
No. 2 Starter Tyler Skaggs
No. 3 Starter Daniel Hudson
No. 4 Starter Ian Kennedy
No. 5 Starter Wade Miley
Closer Kevin Munson


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 3:55 pm 
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ohdbacks wrote:
Baseball America has released their 2011 Top 10 list, with article as well...no surprise at #1 http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/pr ... 11157.html
PROJECTED 2014
LINEUP
Catcher Miguel Montero
First Base Bobby Borchering
Second Base Chris Owings
Third Base Matt Davidson
Shortstop Stephen Drew
Left Field Marc Krauss
Center Field Chris Young
Right Field Justin Upton
No. 1 Starter Jarrod Parker
No. 2 Starter Tyler Skaggs
No. 3 Starter Daniel Hudson
No. 4 Starter Ian Kennedy
No. 5 Starter Wade Miley
Closer Kevin Munson


Flag this as a "time capsule," and let's dig it up again in three years, and see what it looks like versus reality... :D

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 5:43 pm 
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This was from 4 years ago:
PROJECTED 2011
LINEUP
Catcher Chris Snyder
First Base Conor Jackson
Second Base Orlando Hudson
Third Base Mark Reynolds
Shortstop Stephen Drew
Left Field Carlos Gonzalez
Center Field Chris Young
Right Field Justin Upton
No. 1 Starter Brandon Webb
No. 2 Starter Jarrod Parker
No. 3 Starter Micah Owings
No. 4 Starter Brett Anderson
No. 5 Starter Barry Enright
Closer Max Scherzer


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:06 pm 
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4 (possibly 5) out of 14 ain't bad. :?

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 17, 2011 11:11 pm 
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I highly doubt Drew is around in 2014. As for the projected 2011 one... really surprised they didnt put Montero at C.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 8:23 am 
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BOND wrote:
4 (possibly 5) out of 14 ain't bad. :?


It isn't at all when 1/2 of those guys have been traded away, two injured, and one left to free agency. You can't forsee that.


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:31 am 
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Jdub wrote:
BOND wrote:
4 (possibly 5) out of 14 ain't bad. :?


It isn't at all when 1/2 of those guys have been traded away, two injured, and one left to free agency. You can't forsee that.



That wasnt his point.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 9:07 pm 
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Justin wrote:
I highly doubt Drew is around in 2014.


BA cannot infer any future transactions (obviously), so if there is no heir apparent in the system that makes more sense than the incumbent player, they list the latter on their projections. Consider it an open bracket or wishful thinking, whichever you prefer.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 11:00 pm 
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Parker checks in at 29th best prospect in the game. Tyler Skaggs is listed as 52nd.
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/artic ... b&c_id=mlb


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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 11:59 am 
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Keith Law's top 100...

He seems higher on the D'Backs than most with four of them in his list.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 1:25 pm 
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trKOR wrote:
Keith Law's top 100...

He seems higher on the D'Backs than most with four of them in his list.


I like how that guy just blatantly takes subscription content, then re-posts it on his site. Classy.

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 Post subject: Re: top prospect lists.
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 7:56 pm 
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I must be the only one in the world lef that still thinks that Borchering is going to come through on his initial promise on draft day. As I've said before, (not sure if here or elsewhere) switch hitters, especially young ones, sometimes take a little more time to work out the kinks. I think Borchering could very well be an example of that.

Comparing...(again) Upton, who was 10 months younger than Borchering while at South Bend

Upton 501 PA .263/.343/.413 .757 OPS 52 BB, 96K, 12 HR
Borch 588 PA .270/.341/.423 .764 OPS 54 BB, 128K, 15 HR

I'm not saying he's as good a prospect as Upton was. But I think it's a mistake to downgrade Borchering as a prospect based on his season at South Bend.

Davidson made a quicker adjustment to LOW A, I truly believe that Borchering not only catches up in 2011, but passes him by.


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