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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:13 pm 
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dbacks take Jose Caballero #202

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:55 pm 
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Quote:
Mark Teixeira was the rare college 1B who was a real star in MLB. He hit .409/.520/.712 in 675 college PA. Pavin Smith isn't even the best hitter on his own team, much less close to Teixeira-level production. Granted, I can't speak to context - park factors, competition, different bats, etc. - but Smith's junior year ISO was .228 compared to .323 (in limited PA) for Teixeira. To put Smith into further perspective, Dustin Pedroia put up a .217 ISO his junior year.


The BIGGEST concern with Smith I have is he keeps talking about how much he hates striking out in very interview, and how he works so hard to avoid strikeouts.

You can do that in college and still hit with a modicum of power. There are some guys in the majors with decent power and low K rates. But not that many. Going back to beginning of 2016, minimum 700 PA, there are 136 batters who meet that criteria

Below is the list of players with a K% 15% or lower and an ISO .200 or higher. 5 Guys. Keep in mind that 15% is 6% points lower than league avg 21%, but STILL adds up to 90 K's in 600 PA. (See also Final note at the bottom) As much as Smith talks about hating striking out, I seriously wonder if it will get in his head when he has to face the reality of how hard it is NOT to strike out in MLB.

Code:
Player          PA     K%       ISO
Daniel Murphy   836   10.00%   0.235
Anthony Rizzo   958   14.50%   0.244
Mookie Betts   1005   10.30%   0.212
Robinson Cano   954   13.20%   0.227
Carlos Santana  955   14.90%   0.222


And just in case some might think I am being too selective in my criteria, if I drop the PA requirement to 600, the number of batters jumps from 136 to 184. And if I bring the K% to 17% and and the ISO to .180, obviously you are going to get a bigger list. But it's still not that big. 16 guys, only 15 active. And most of these guys had higher K rates to achieve their power earlier in their careers.


Use Scroll bar at right:

Code:
Name             PA    K%    ISO
David Ortiz     626   13.70%   0.305
Nolan Arenado   978   15.30%   0.272
Joey Votto      954   15.90%   0.246
Anthony Rizzo   958   14.50%   0.244
Daniel Murphy   836   10.00%   0.235
Robinson Cano   954   13.20%   0.227
Carlos Santana  955   14.90%   0.222
Adrian Beltre   683   10.40%   0.219
Mookie Betts   1005   10.30%   0.212
Kyle Seager     939   16.20%   0.2
Justin Turner   794   16.20%   0.199
Anthony Rendon  896   16.90%   0.193
Jose Altuve     995   11.00%   0.192
Neil Walker     706   17.00%   0.192
Aledmys Diaz    701   13.40%   0.188
Jonathan Lucroy 733   15.70%   0.186



The optimistic comps I've seen thrown around are Mark Grace, Eric Hosmer, even Todd Helton.

Hosmer
owns a career 16.4% K rate but just a .151 ISO, (108 OPS+) And the last two years his K Rate is 18.7 and ISO .164
Actually as much of a crap shoot as MLB draft is, I'm hoping for more out first round bat taken in the first 7 picks.

Mark Grace played in an era when K's were only 15-16%. He struck out just 6.9% of the time and had a .139 ISO. But he had a .303/.383/.442 line 119 career OPS+ (First six season 121 OPS+) If Smith can be Mark Grace V2, that would be great. I'll take it. But as can be seen above, that kind of profile is not easy to achieve in modern MLB


Todd Helton
is a bit of wet dream. First of all he had plenty of power until around age 30 when he hurt his back and that power sapping injury would hamper him the rest of his career, (in the power department, but not the BA/OBP as much)

Helton through age 30, .278 ISO, 148 OPS+, 11.3% K rate (vs. 16-18% averages most of the time).
Helton age 31 onwards .166 ISO, 116 OPS+, 13.6% K rate, (vs. 18-19% averages)

Then there is MY comp: James Loney

Career 104 OPS+, 11.9% K rate, .126 ISO
Thru age 27: 109 OPS+ 12.6% K Rate, .145 ISO
Age 28-32: 97 OPS+, 11.3 % K rate, .104 ISO

And here is one last comp

Conor Jackson, (only thru 2008, so pre valley fever)

104 OPS+, 11.2% Krate, .155 ISO


FINAL NOTE: PER 600 PA, here are what different K rates look like in raw totals. Again, as much as Smith says he hates, K's, he will be sorely challenged mentally once he gets up here and starts striking out 4-5 times as often as he did in College. He could be almost 25% better than league avg, (17%) and STILL strike out 100 times in 600 PA !

Code:
K%   K's
10%   60
12%   72
14%   84
16%   96
18%   108
20%   120
22%   132
24%   144
26%   156
28%   168
30%   180


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:21 pm 
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dbacks take Tim Susnara #232

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:38 pm 
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dbacks take Camden Duzenack #262

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:39 pm 
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My initial impression with Smith was that we were signing a "left-handed Paul Goldschmidt". Goldy strikes out but he is also productive. I appreciate Smith's concerns about striking out, and it will come down to
his expectations vs. the needs of the organization. Power is great, but the essence of offense is driving in
runners, and to get them into position you need to move them. If he brings a big swing, and can rattle
the balls off fences at Chase, great, but when the game is on the line and the tying run is on third,
and less than two outs, can he make contact and get it deep enough for the sac fly? That may be what
he has in mind by hating strikeouts: I'm sure he may have nightmares about striking out in high
leverage situations, and if so, he would make it his goal to be able to have the kind of dual swing
that can hit for power, but can also move runners. I like what I see in the guy and I hope he gets the
ink down real soon and gets on a team. Can't wait to see what he can do.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:12 pm 
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I personally like seeing a young player not wanting to strike out. To me that is like Alex Young saying he hates giving up walks. I don't know, maybe I'm missing the point but yeah.

Is ISO a new thing? :?

James Loney had a good first 4 seasons, at which point he (in theory, I dont know what the Dodgers did in the past) would be arb eligible. So he (smith) would just be non tendered if he sucks, or traded if he was good.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:23 pm 
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Justin wrote:
I personally like seeing a young player not wanting to strike out. To me that is like Alex Young saying he hates giving up walks. I don't know, maybe I'm missing the point but yeah.

Is ISO a new thing? :?

James Loney had a good first 4 seasons, at which point he (in theory, I dont know what the Dodgers did in the past) would be arb eligible. So he (smith) would just be non tendered if he sucks, or traded if he was good.


ISO is an old thing. It's Isolated power and is simply Slugging % - Batting Avg.

Sometimes a guy with a high batting avg will have a good slugging percentage, even though he doesn't really hit with a lot of power. The singles are contributing a disproportionate amount to his "slugging", and of course singles are not power. A good example of this is the 2017 version of David Peralta .312/.365/.455 The Slugging looks reasonable or slightly above average, but the ISO, or SLG-BA is only .133 which is mediocre. That because he has just 12 doubles, 1 triple, and 5 homers. Thats not a lot of power. But he has a .312 BA and 45 singles and that is driving up his "Slugging" even though he's not really slugging. (The other night notwithstanding)

ISO does exactly what it's name does....ISOLATES power.

Sometimes a guy with a low batting avg has a good slugging percentage, BECAUSE he has a lot of power. So the gap between Slugging and BA may be much higher. Go look at Iannetta's numbers the same way i just showed you for Peralta, and you'll see what I mean.

It's just a way to tease out power production.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:30 pm 
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TheDesertSurfer wrote:
My initial impression with Smith was that we were signing a "left-handed Paul Goldschmidt". Goldy strikes out but he is also productive. I appreciate Smith's concerns about striking out, and it will come down to
his expectations vs. the needs of the organization. Power is great, but the essence of offense is driving in
runners, and to get them into position you need to move them. If he brings a big swing, and can rattle
the balls off fences at Chase, great, but when the game is on the line and the tying run is on third,
and less than two outs, can he make contact and get it deep enough for the sac fly? That may be what
he has in mind by hating strikeouts: I'm sure he may have nightmares about striking out in high
leverage situations, and if so, he would make it his goal to be able to have the kind of dual swing
that can hit for power, but can also move runners. I like what I see in the guy and I hope he gets the
ink down real soon and gets on a team. Can't wait to see what he can do.


DS, go look at Goldy's K% throughout his career.

He has never had a season at ANY LEVEL, minors or majors, below 20%, until this year's 18%. His MLB career rate is 21.7%

THAT IS 141 STRIKEOUTS PER 650 PA, OR MORE OR LESS A FULL SEASON FOR GOLDY

I'm absolutely certain that Goldy struck out a lot more than Smith in college too. He was never afraid to take a called strike three as he was learning the strike zone, and his 2 strike hitting ability is something that took a long time to develop.

I don't think we are talking about the same things here, AT ALL

Smith is talking about ultra low k rates as being the only thing thats acceptable to him in his approach. I have literally seen and heard this in 3 different interviews with him. It's an obsession. And if he maintains that type of approach, he is going to be a slap hitting, batting average , without much power first baseman. Unless he is a rare exception. Which he might be. He was picked 7th overall. So thats possible. I'm not saying it's not. We don't know who or what he will become. Thats the beauty of it all. But when I see all these comps bandied about, I don't think people really understand or have looked closely at what and who they comping to.


EDIT: Sorry DS, I really couldn't let this one go :)


Quote:
Power is great, but the essence of offense is driving in runners


Well the essence of offense is NOT making outs, getting on base, and driving in those guys on base, which is done more efficiently with power, BUT of course needs to be done in small bites at times, especially in key situations, (late and close, 2 out/RISP, etc).

As in all things, balance.

My hero, Mr. Branch Rickey published THIS LIFE MAGAZINE ARTICLE in 1951.

I strongly urge anyone to read it.

I absolutely LOVE this following quote, and Mr. Rickey certainly understand intangibles as well as anyone who ever was involved in the game of baseball

Quote:
Statistics, of course, cannot tell the whole story. They fall short of bridging the gap between human expectancy and fulfillment. They cannot measure such intangibles as intelligence, courage, disposition, effort.

But somehow baseball's intangibles balance out. They reflect themselves in other ways. Over an entire season, or many seasons, individuals and teams build an accumulation of mathematical constants. A man can work with them. He can measure results and establish values. He can then construct a formula which expresses something tangible, and that is why this formula was devised.



Last edited by shoewizard on Tue Jun 13, 2017 7:37 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:33 pm 
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Oh, ok, thanks Shoe :)

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:33 pm 
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dbacks take Ryan Grotjohn #292

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 3:37 pm 
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I'm surprised this hasn't been mentioned, the Giants took Louis Gonzalez' son Jacob Gonzalez with the 58th pick. He will forego his scholarship to TCU in order to sign.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/2 ... 391474001/

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 8:20 pm 
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I'm not sure obsession is good for any player. If he gets to the Majors we'll have to set up an over/under on water coolers. Someone needs to take the kid aside and tell him it's a game. Play hard, give your best effort, then let it go. Make him spend several hours a week at PCH when he gets here.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:20 am 
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dbacks take Tra'Mayne Holmes #322

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:22 am 
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dbacks take Matt Brill #352

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:31 am 
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dbacks take Riley Cabral #382

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:52 am 
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dbacks take Keshawn Lynch #412

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 9:59 am 
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dbacks take Clayton Keyes #442

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:06 am 
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dbacks take Jeff Bain #472

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:20 am 
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dbacks take Trent Autry #502

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Draft
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 14, 2017 10:43 am 
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dbacks take Kevin Watson #532

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