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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:47 am 
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98dback wrote:
As much as I love Goldy, hard to argue with your proposed strategy here. JDM is a damn great hitter. Probably more consistent inside a season than Goldy. PG is a consistent hitter year to,year, but lots of peaks and valleys during the year.


Consistent perhaps, but Martinez has played in more than 125 games in a season only once in his career (2015), missing significant time in 2016 and 17, and the first three weeks of 2014. On the other hand, Goldschmidt has played in 140+ games all but one full season he's played in the majors. If it's a financial matter of either/or, Goldschmidt is the much safer bet.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:55 am 
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Generally thats true, but 98's take a little more nuanced than that.

D Backs control Goldy the next 2 years no matter what. What he is saying is sign martinez now, and have both of them for the next two years when you are in a contention window, and then start the rebuild in 2020.

But this isn't really practical either. What kind of rebuild are you going to put into place if you haven't cashed in your most valuable rebuilding trade chip ?

I didn't think there was any way this team could compete for playoffs in 2017. Obviously I was wrong about that, so the folk that felt I was wrong to push a rebuild so hard and that we should give this group of guys at least another year to try and compete were right......for now.

But it's also possible our "playoffs" will be over after just one game, and then the team immediately feels the financial crunch as it builds over the next 2-3 seasons.

Truth is they REALLY need a deep run here to both puff up the coffers AND create more momentum towards sustaining a strong roster. Otherwise, as fun as this year has been, and it's been a fucking blast, we might have to pay a steep price for competing this year.

I just changed my wording from "will" to "might" and that is because of Mike Hazen. Hopefully he can figure a way out of the financial straight Jacket he is in the next few seasons and still keep the team relevant and competitive. I do have hope he can figure it out. I sure can't.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:16 am 
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It doesn't help that they have a financial albatross like Tomas. I don't see any way out of that deal. They've also got a lot of arb candidates to address.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:48 am 
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I think you sum the situation up nicely, shoe. They have Goldschmidt for two years if they want him. To take advantage of that window to compete they would have to sign JDM for probably three years beyond that window. Plus, if they are not going to retain Goldy, they'd be better off to trade him before the end of 2019 while they can still get assets for him. The risk is Nov. 2019 comes and there's no Goldy, no acquired assets and the 32-34 seasons of an expensive and declining JDM (and a similar Greinke). All for a two year window to try and win what, with a young, talented and financially resourced Dodgers team in the same division, is probably a one game crap shoot at a wild card, while postponing the inevitable rebuild.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:28 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:

Truth is they REALLY need a deep run here to both puff up the coffers AND create more momentum towards sustaining a strong roster. Otherwise, as fun as this year has been, and it's been a fucking blast, we might have to pay a steep price for competing this year.


Hmmmm, sounds a lot like 2011!

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 11:38 pm 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
shoewizard wrote:

Truth is they REALLY need a deep run here to both puff up the coffers AND create more momentum towards sustaining a strong roster. Otherwise, as fun as this year has been, and it's been a fucking blast, we might have to pay a steep price for competing this year.


Hmmmm, sounds a lot like 2011!



Beat me too it!

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 11:03 am 
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'I think I would rather see the Dbacks spend money on JD for four or five years (with limited or no NT protection), make a couple of runs at the playoffs (thru 2019), and then start the rebuild.'

What I was getting at when I posted the above was instead of signing Goldschmidt to an extension was to spend the money on JD with limited or no NT protection. That way, if the team doesn't make the playoffs or has an early exit in 2018 they could trade both Goldschmidt, JD, or anyone for that matter, and begin a rebuild before or during the 2019 season.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 12:44 pm 
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Don't expect all that much beyond salary relief in return for Goldschmidt as a one year or less rental and JDM's three or four over-priced declining years, but giving it one more year seems at least somewhat more viable now than it did this time last year.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:19 pm 
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I believe Hazen will find a way to maximize the return on Goldy, JD, Greinke, and others to build some solid depth in the farm system and/or a couple of MLB ready prospects. I could see a half dozen MLB Top 100 Prospects from the 20-100 range, maybe even a half dozen from the 15-50 range, depending on the timing of the trades. Some AL teams might be willing to pay the freight on JD as a DH during those "declining years".


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:44 pm 
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Not many teams have "a half dozen MLB Top 100 Prospects from the 20-100 range, maybe even a half dozen from the 15-50 range," and if they do, they aren't the teams that usually trade for aging, over-priced and/or short term rental players.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:31 pm 
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David B wrote:
Not many teams have "a half dozen MLB Top 100 Prospects from the 20-100 range, maybe even a half dozen from the 15-50 range," and if they do, they aren't the teams that usually trade for aging, over-priced and/or short term rental players.


They could have got that this year if they unloaded Goldy and Pollock and one or two others, but then we wouldn't have our 53% of getting to the Divisional series against the Dodgers that we have right now. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:18 pm 
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David B wrote:
Not many teams have "a half dozen MLB Top 100 Prospects from the 20-100 range, maybe even a half dozen from the 15-50 range," and if they do, they aren't the teams that usually trade for aging, over-priced and/or short term rental players.


I didn't mean to imply that the half dozen would come from one team. I meant that if you trade Goldy, and JD, and Greinke, and other veteran players the Dbacks may get back a half dozen ranked prospects in MLB Top 100 in addition to some unranked prospects in total from several teams. Maybe one or two from some team for Goldy, another one or two from another team for JD, another one or two from another team for Greinke, or some package including each of those players to different teams. Goldy would probably be the only "short term rental player". ALL players are aging. It's a fact of life. Some much faster than others. "Over-priced" can be somewhat subjective. Over-priced can be different in the view of the Royals vs. the Yankees. It can be different for any particular team depending on where they see themselves along the evolution of playoff contention and the strength of their minor league system.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:38 pm 
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I understood what you meant. But how many top 100 prospects got traded this year? And how many of them ended up on the same team? The White Sox got quite a few, but the Sox had two young, talented, relatively cheap controllable pitchers to deal (Sale, Quintana) that the Dbacks don't. They also found a team that valued a player controlled through 2021 at below market value (Eaton). By Nov. 2018 Arizona's assets won't be nearly as desirable due to age and contract status. I mean, 3 years worth of Sale in his prime at $38 mil vs. the age 35-37 seasons of Greinke at $104 mil. It's no contest.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:05 am 
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There are “hints” that the D-backs plan to try locking up MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt to a longer-term deal, writes Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports in his latest NL Notes column. However, the team’s below-average revenues (in part due to the league’s lowest ticket prices) could make it difficult.


https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/ ... panik.html


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 4:22 pm 
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Having a very quiet September after the elbow issues. Slashing .203/.282/.362 going into today where he went 0-4.

Obviously he is healthy enough to play, but that injury did sound more serious than the team was saying back when we were all worried a month ago. This could just be a normal slump, but I wonder if the elbow is still affecting him right now.

Either way, really fortunate JD has been on such an insane hot streak or we likely don't have home field in the WC round anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:25 am 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
Either way, really fortunate JD has been on such an insane hot streak or we likely don't have home field in the WC round anymore.


Unfortunately, that another hitter on his own team carried them the last two months might hurt Goldy with MVP voters.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:00 am 
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I think that his struggles over the final month were going to be a big dent in those chances anyway

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 10:25 am 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
I think that his struggles over the final month were going to be a big dent in those chances anyway

Agreed, that injury killed any chance he had of winning.


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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 11:54 am 
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Does JD have a chance at the MVP? Seems like a great case can be made, especially with Goldy's injury and slump.

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 Post subject: Re: Paul Goldschmidt
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 12:02 pm 
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He will probably get some down ballot votes, but there's no way a player who only contributed for two months (even at a high level) can be elected MVP for a six month season league.


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