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 Post subject: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:31 pm 
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As different projection systems come out, I'll link them here

Note Steamer hasn't figure out the playing time yet, obviously. And BB-Ref look like basic Marceh's. Focus on the rate stats. Nobody can accurately predict playing time anyway.

Steamer Pitchers

Steamer Hitters

baseball reference hitters

baseball reference pitchers


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:29 pm 
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ZIPS Projections for 2018


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 7:23 am 
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So the quick takeaways that I also posted on Twitter

The one that stood out to me the most negatively was Drury. 81wRC+ ? He has a career 95 in 1038 PA & still only 25. I could see 89-90, as was 92 last year after 102 rookie year. 81 feels too low

No other big surprises on batting side for me. On pitching side nice to see Godley projected to be good again & all 5 starters above avg, even Walker. Some cool comps. A lot of people commented on Greinke's Bob Gibson comp, but I thought Ray comp to Sudden Sam McDowell was great

If you are not familiar with #Suddensam check him out His BB REF page Here and also And his Sabr bio Here


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 8:35 am 
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Sam McDowell pitched with Portland when I was a kid. He was 8-0 1.18 with a no hitter when Cleveland called him up. Luis Tiant was also on that team and he went 15-1 2.04. When McDowell was called up the Indians sent some guy named Tommy John down. That was some pitching staff.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 2:35 pm 
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.200 ISO from pollock would be nice. and if Jared Miller performs at a similar level as Bradley I'd be cool with that too

Boxberger's (can we call him square patty?) era/fip seems really high.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:57 pm 
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Pollock had 53 XBH in just 425 AB last year, (33 DB, 6 TR, 14 HR) and he had a .205 ISO last year, and the best XBH % of his career.

Actually I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a power spike if he ever has another fully healthy season.

He may be leaning towards older player skills. His BA is down, but his power is up. Who knows he may even add a few more walks to his game.

He also hit the ball in the air more last year .

Between that and league HR context, it wouldn't be a shock if Pollock had a 20-25 homer season. I'm not predicting it, but these are types of things that may start to align just before a mid career power bump. Maybe not quite Finelyesque but I think you get the idea.

Yeah, Boxberger's projection quite poor. Worse than I thought it would be. see here But he had bad peripherals in 2015 & 2016 (108 & 134 FIP-)

While ZIPS doesn't predict injury, I would guess the algorithm picks up something askew with a 28-29 reliever throwing just 24 and 29 IP in back to back seasons.

For example I just did a little quick research.

Over last 30 years, since 1988 there have been 103 pitcher to pitch in both their age 28-29 seasons and have minimum 45 ttl IP and Maximum 65 ttl IP.

Their Average: 55 IP, 4.83 ERA, 4.68 FIP

Guys THAT age, appearing but throwing few innings in both years are either hurt, pitching badly, or both.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Projections Thread
 Post Posted: Sat Feb 03, 2018 5:20 pm 
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Quick and Dirty look at DBacks ZIPS & Steamer projections

I posted at AZ Snakepit because the format handles that kind of post better. Please do click through and feel free to comment either here or there


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