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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:58 am 
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I like this move.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:21 am 
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List of Japanese pitchers who started MLB career in their 30's pitching mostly in relief

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PlayerIPAgeGSVERAFIPK%BB%ERA+BAbipHRTm
Koji Uehara480.234-42436952.662.8530.7%4.2%162.25560BAL-TEX-BOS-CHC
Takashi Saito338.036-42338842.342.8129.4%7.9%185.27825LAD-BOS-ATL-MIL-ARI
Hideki Okajima250.131-3726663.093.9220.4%8.3%149.28327BOS-OAK
Hisanori Takahashi243.135-38168103.993.8421.6%8.2%97.29229NYM-LAA-PIT-CHC
Akinori Otsuka232.032-35236392.442.9622.8%8.4%171.28312SDP-TEX
Kazuhiro Sasaki223.132-352281293.143.4326.2%8.3%138.24924SEA
Keiichi Yabu126.036-3910014.004.3116.3%10.3%110.3079OAK-SFG
Shingo Takatsu98.235-3699273.384.7721.3%9.7%137.24417CHW-NYM
Masao Kida95.230-366515.834.3215.7%9.0%82.3409DET-LAD-SEA
Ryota Igarashi73.031-338306.414.4120.5%14.5%61.3476NYM-TOR-NYY
Masahide Kobayashi65.134-356765.104.8413.5%6.2%84.30610CLE
Yoshinori Tateyama61.035-365315.754.5423.7%6.6%77.26112TEX
Yasuhiko Yabuta51.235-364307.145.4613.9%9.8%62.3459KCR
Satoru Komiyama43.136-362505.614.5817.0%6.2%72.3317NYM
Kyuji Fujikawa26.232-342925.744.1126.2%6.6%70.3704CHC-TEX
Masumi Kuwata21.039-391909.438.1011.7%14.6%47.2796PIT
Takahito Nomura13.233-332108.567.9412.7%25.4%49.2252MIL



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/22/2017.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 22, 2017 7:28 pm 
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Machado deal with the O's got no traction because the Diamondbacks were not willing to include Lamb. Not sure what I think of that. On one hand, Lamb is getting more exposed as a hitter with every at bat and he's just starting to get expensive. On the other, your dealing 3 years for 1 guaranteed year of Machado. Still, I might be inclined to a do a deal structured around Lamb and make one last concerted effort to go for it in 2018 with Machado.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/ ... astro.html


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 25, 2017 7:53 am 
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The Dbacks need to sign Ichiro as PH/4th OFer.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:11 pm 
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ESPN reports that the Marlins are listening on Yelich and Realmuto, as neither is happy with the Jeter teardown.

I really, really hope Hazen is in on Yelich. He is the answer to our soon-to-be loss of JD Martinez. Younger and cheaper too.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:25 pm 
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The Marlins are going to get a boatload for Yelich. The Dbacks can barely fill a dinghy.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:37 pm 
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David B wrote:
The Marlins are going to get a boatload for Yelich. The Dbacks can barely fill a dinghy.


Damn thats good. I'll be stealing this one.... :lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:32 am 
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Expecting a bit more news by now if not dbacks related, at least with other teams. Maybe east coast storm and artic blasts all over right after holiday a factor. I’ ll be really shocked if we have not seen any significant movement by end of next week.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:05 am 
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Gambo reported that JD has been unable to get the money he wanted on the open market so far. Therefore, he's hearing that if it continues to be the case that teams want more proof on him being able to put up Stanton numbers, both sides would be willing to consider a 1 year deal in the 20-25MM range. Good for AZ and good for JDM in that he likes it here and knows he can put up numbers at Chase and hit the market again next year, albeit in a loaded FA class. The Dbacks would do that but don't want anything 4 years or more, which is smart on their part. We will see, but I'd think if JDM isn't signed elsewhere within 2-3 weeks, this becomes very viable.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:56 pm 
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Yeah, we'll see. I maintain his FLOOR is 5/106, which is what Justin Upton makes.

With his injury history, if JD forgoes a 5/106 deal in favor of a one year pillow deal, his agent isn't doing his job.

He's only going to be a year older after 2018......the deals don't get longer.

If he were a 28 year old FA it would make sense, but he's 30., and injury prone.

Not saying it's impossible, people make bad decisions. But if he passes up 5/106 or more he's making a big mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 7:12 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Yeah, we'll see. I maintain his FLOOR is 5/106, which is what Justin Upton makes.

With his injury history, if JD forgoes a 5/106 deal in favor of a one year pillow deal, his agent isn't doing his job.

He's only going to be a year older after 2018......the deals don't get longer.

If he were a 28 year old FA it would make sense, but he's 30., and injury prone.

Not saying it's impossible, people make bad decisions. But if he passes up 5/106 or more he's making a big mistake.


I don't know. I see you what you're saying, but getting 1 yr 25MM vs 5 at 21 might actually make sense. He's betting on himself at Chase Field to hit another 35-40 with a 1000+ OPS, which is likely if he plays roughly at least 130 games at Chase. I think he's been north of 30HR the past 4 years, and he's always going to get about 15% bump at Chase vs playing at Comerica, so it's a good bet that he'll only have more data to go get that 106 next year plus the 25 this year. Now he just got 6 at 131MM. Worst case, I still think he could get a 4 year deal next offseason for 81, which puts him right back where he would've been(actually slightly ahead getting that frontloaded 25MM).

Bottom line, I actually think it's smart business decision for him to take a 1 y 25MM deal at chase vs a 5 y 106mm elsewhere. If he can get closer to 115MM, then the 1 year makes less sense.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:48 pm 
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Not sure if he would put up a 1000 OPS with the Humidor, but yeah he'd have another good year if healthy

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:56 pm 
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Good point about the Humidor. We may need to all be adjusting our sights again quickly to get a feel for what is good or great playing home games in Chase Field.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:05 pm 
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98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Yeah, we'll see. I maintain his FLOOR is 5/106, which is what Justin Upton makes.

With his injury history, if JD forgoes a 5/106 deal in favor of a one year pillow deal, his agent isn't doing his job.

He's only going to be a year older after 2018......the deals don't get longer.

If he were a 28 year old FA it would make sense, but he's 30., and injury prone.

Not saying it's impossible, people make bad decisions. But if he passes up 5/106 or more he's making a big mistake.


I don't know. I see you what you're saying, but getting 1 yr 25MM vs 5 at 21 might actually make sense. He's betting on himself at Chase Field to hit another 35-40 with a 1000+ OPS, which is likely if he plays roughly at least 130 games at Chase. I think he's been north of 30HR the past 4 years, and he's always going to get about 15% bump at Chase vs playing at Comerica, so it's a good bet that he'll only have more data to go get that 106 next year plus the 25 this year. Now he just got 6 at 131MM. Worst case, I still think he could get a 4 year deal next offseason for 81, which puts him right back where he would've been(actually slightly ahead getting that frontloaded 25MM).

Bottom line, I actually think it's smart business decision for him to take a 1 y 25MM deal at chase vs a 5 y 106mm elsewhere. If he can get closer to 115MM, then the 1 year makes less sense.


He's a 30 year old payer who has qualified for the batting title twice, and one of those two times just barely crossing that threshold by 15 PA.

I think you might be underestimating the risk, but then again, so too do the players themselves sometimes. Thats why I said if his agent lets him sign a pillow deal, he's not doing his job protecting his client.

Anyway, D Backs aren't going to give him 25 for 1 year deal. And I don't even really believe Heyman's article about them being willing to go to "9 figures". Don't forget Heyman is to Scott Boras as Fox is to Trump. ;)


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:58 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Yeah, we'll see. I maintain his FLOOR is 5/106, which is what Justin Upton makes.

With his injury history, if JD forgoes a 5/106 deal in favor of a one year pillow deal, his agent isn't doing his job.

He's only going to be a year older after 2018......the deals don't get longer.

If he were a 28 year old FA it would make sense, but he's 30., and injury prone.

Not saying it's impossible, people make bad decisions. But if he passes up 5/106 or more he's making a big mistake.


I don't know. I see you what you're saying, but getting 1 yr 25MM vs 5 at 21 might actually make sense. He's betting on himself at Chase Field to hit another 35-40 with a 1000+ OPS, which is likely if he plays roughly at least 130 games at Chase. I think he's been north of 30HR the past 4 years, and he's always going to get about 15% bump at Chase vs playing at Comerica, so it's a good bet that he'll only have more data to go get that 106 next year plus the 25 this year. Now he just got 6 at 131MM. Worst case, I still think he could get a 4 year deal next offseason for 81, which puts him right back where he would've been(actually slightly ahead getting that frontloaded 25MM).

Bottom line, I actually think it's smart business decision for him to take a 1 y 25MM deal at chase vs a 5 y 106mm elsewhere. If he can get closer to 115MM, then the 1 year makes less sense.


He's a 30 year old payer who has qualified for the batting title twice, and one of those two times just barely crossing that threshold by 15 PA.

I think you might be underestimating the risk, but then again, so too do the players themselves sometimes. Thats why I said if his agent lets him sign a pillow deal, he's not doing his job protecting his client.

Anyway, D Backs aren't going to give him 25 for 1 year deal. And I don't even really believe Heyman's article about them being willing to go to "9 figures". Don't forget Heyman is to Scott Boras as Fox is to Trump. ;)


If Gambo is saying they'd do a 1 year 20-25MM deal, I'm assuming he's hearing that from the team. I actually think they'd do it for a 1 year run. That would be smart and reasonable. Going 4 plus years would not be. And even though he's 30, I don't think it would be without precedent for him to still get a 4-5 year deal next year at age 31, especially if he produces again this year. And I don't think productivity is in question, only health is.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:40 pm 
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Well, you gotta do the payroll math. I feel like you are looking at this in a bubble.

Payroll as it stands now, if they don't make any reduction moves is at 120M give or take, and depending on the resources you use to look at it.

On top of that, Derek Hall said payroll would be "around" where it was the last couple years, which is nowhere near 120. It's more like 95-105.

Even if he is playing possum, and they are willing to go to 120, to add JD would take ANOTHER 20M at least, bringing payroll to 140M

This is pure fantasy, and fiction. It's not going to happen. Now what might happen is they do go ahead and sign JD, but then that means they will be moving Greinke for sure, and thats just to get back to 120M......which is 15M more then where they ENDED last year.

Before I can consider anything else, I really need to go through the payroll numbers and figure out how any of this makes sense. Without that context, and answers to these payroll questions, I'll believe it when I see it.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:16 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Well, you gotta do the payroll math. I feel like you are looking at this in a bubble.

Payroll as it stands now, if they don't make any reduction moves is at 120M give or take, and depending on the resources you use to look at it.

On top of that, Derek Hall said payroll would be "around" where it was the last couple years, which is nowhere near 120. It's more like 95-105.

Even if he is playing possum, and they are willing to go to 120, to add JD would take ANOTHER 20M at least, bringing payroll to 140M

This is pure fantasy, and fiction. It's not going to happen. Now what might happen is they do go ahead and sign JD, but then that means they will be moving Greinke for sure, and thats just to get back to 120M......which is 15M more then where they ENDED last year.

Before I can consider anything else, I really need to go through the payroll numbers and figure out how any of this makes sense. Without that context, and answers to these payroll questions, I'll believe it when I see it.


I think you may be putting too much stock into Hall's comments in that interview. He was responding, I think, in the context of adding a big player/salary to a multiyear deal that would alter payroll for years to come. In the context of a 1 year deal for JDM, which is unusual and wasn't considered in that dialogue, I think for 1 year, it may be a different answer. The particular question/conversation wasn't structured that way though. Typically for the payroll to go up next year to any significant degree in 1 year, you'd have to sign someone to a longer term deal, committing effectively to years of increased payroll. I do agree that they do not want to run up payroll over the mid to longer term. However, I'm not so sure they'd be averse to running it at 140MM for 1 year when you know that JDM, AJ, Corbin, Shelby and others will be coming off after next year and allow for a reset. That 1 year option would be an abnormal situation and I'm not sure it was considered in that dialogue.

Given the weird scenario going on with JDM, the shorter option may in fact be possible. Gambo, for all of his nonsense, is pretty dialed into the Dbacks with his sources. For him to come out with this, he's getting it from both sides as a "possibility". I think they'd be much more concerned with traditional longer term deals that could keep payroll elevated. 1 year at 140MM is probably not that crazy of a thought if it means keeping JDM and making one last good run with this core group. And I don't think you keep JDM for 1 year and unload ZG on a cash dump. That would make zero sense. Maybe if you kept JDM on a longer term deal, but not on the 1 year option.

I get that you're a smart numbers guy, but you also have to factor in an aging (and impulsive) owner who may see this as his last run at a title, and a 1 year deal for JDM is a more responsible way to go about taking one last shot without blowing up the payroll long term and mortgaging your farm system. There's a human element to consider regarding Kendrick. I can tell you he really enjoyed winning and the adulation that came along with it. I see him in Hava Java almost every day and the guy was very upbeat last year compared to previous. With the 1 year deal on JDM, if next year doesn't work, can always reset after (or even during) the season and flip JDM, Goldy, AJ, maybe even ZG etc... Then start the rebuild. No long term damage done. Can even reduce payroll short term while rebuilding to offset the bump in 18'. I do feel they think it would be unfortunate not to take one more serious shot with this core if they had the option to do it for only 1 year with JDM.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:53 pm 
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I think you need to factor in an ownership that values turning a profit. A lot.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:36 pm 
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David B wrote:
I think you need to factor in an ownership that values turning a profit. A lot.


I agree. I don't think they're willing to lock into a longer term elevated payroll. However, on a 1 year lift to compete one last time with this group before starting the rebuild, it makes both PR sense and business sense. You take your swing at one last run, which will be entertaining and continue to rebuild good will with the fanbase (AND POTENTIALLY ASSIST IN THE PR BATTLE TO RENOVATE CHASE OR GET A NEW LOCATION).

Then, after the year is over, you can start the rebuild, which will organically result in a reduced payroll, maybe in the 80's or 90's, that would offset the 1 year of higher payroll. The big money for ownership will come when they sell the team, not based on a 1 year loss of a few million. The sentiment of another run could help them in their stadium situation, which is a much bigger deal to the overall value of the team, and their pocketbooks, than a loss of 20 or so million in one single year. A settled ballpark situation probably increases the franchise value by a few hundred million bucks. IT will be key to have public support to get this done no matter which direction they choose to go on the stadium situation.

I actually really believe that they'll do this if the opportunity presents itself. However, the availability of that opportunity lies squarely in the hands of JDM and Boras deciding on a 1 yr deal, which makes it pretty unlikely.


Last edited by 98dback on Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:39 pm 
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Kendrick may enjoy winning, but his consistent annual payroll limitations tell me that he enjoys money a whole lot more.

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