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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:20 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
OK, 98, here is where we are:

1.) I spoke to Nick Piecoro over the phone the other day to clarify some things.

A.) DH said Last year's payroll ended at between 107-108M, and DH said they would be "around that".

B.) Very specifically what Nick told me is that when DH said IF revenues might increase a bit over projections, and he was talking about maybe a bit more add revenue and couple thousand more season tickets then expected, then payroll would go up with that bump. When he said "less than 10M" in the quote, he meant more like 2-3M. Above is straight from Nick.

C.) Rosenthal is wrong about Machado. Nick was told that he was told by Dbacks front office that what happened was D Backs called the Orioles before the holidays to see what their asking price was , and didn't get any answer back . So they called again a week later to follow up. They got the asking price, and clearly it was too high. That was the extent of the D Backs being "aggressive". The Orioles were the source of Rosenthal's article, and why the presented the D Backs making 2 phone calls as being aggressive and hot to trot was "bemusing" the D Backs.


Now.... moving on:

Current payroll is approx 120M. There are 20 Guaranteed contracts and arb awards, PLUS estimates for the remaining 5 slots going to pre arb guys Plus another dozen or so making league minimum for partial season). BB-Ref has 116.5 but they are low as they are only showing the 5 remaining slots estimate, 2.7 M. (minimum is 545K)

So that 120 figure is ALREADY at least 12-15 M more than last year, and 10M higher than what DH indicated things would be if projected revenue were a little higher than when he interviewed with Nick.


Gambo may be right, and have good info on JD. Whether or not that is a good move is a different debate. I am not saying it's impossible they sign JD.

What I am saying, and I am willing to bet $500 bucks on right here right now with the board as my witness, the d backs won't OPEN THE SEASON with a 145M payroll. which is the number you gave.

For the sake of being fair, I'll even make the bet at 140M, straight up over/under

You game ?

EDIT: In all the above numbers, ALL of Greinke's salary is being counted even though some is deferred. That is because all or most the deferred amount must still be funded separately (MLB instituted this rule due to Jerry Colangelo's deferrals that weren't funded and necessitated the team taking out a loan from MLB to cover payroll)


Good info, Shoe. I copied you on my tweets to Gambo but he's non-responsive on the payroll issue after his newest JDM tweet.

So is the payroll as of today... 107 or 115 or what? I was lead to believe it was 115. Either way, my point wasn't necessarily 140 or 145, it was roughly a 20MM lift over wherever we sit now. IF they were to sign JDM for 20MM, or north of that, for 1 year, then they wouldn't shed a significant piece in order to do it.

So I need clarity before making the bet - need to actually know where the payroll sits today. AND... any bet would stipulate that we actually sign JDM to activate the bet. I still maintain it's more likely JDM takes the 100MM and /or Boston ups that number and he takes it. I do hold it out as a possibility he takes the 1 yr, but it's not the most likely outcome. I obviously never said we'd raise the payroll 20MM plus without JDM or Machado (sounds like Machado isn't very real). So what I'd do with you, I'll take the current payroll number and add 20MM to it and take the over, but JDM has to sign here for the bet to be valid. Again, I've always said the only way they'd significantly escalate the payroll this year was for 1 yr of JDM or Machado. Make sense?


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:02 pm 
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I kind of wish levski was still here, right now.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:13 pm 
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I love spending other people's money.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:05 pm 
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98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
OK, 98, here is where we are:

1.) I spoke to Nick Piecoro over the phone the other day to clarify some things.

A.) DH said Last year's payroll ended at between 107-108M, and DH said they would be "around that".

B.) Very specifically what Nick told me is that when DH said IF revenues might increase a bit over projections, and he was talking about maybe a bit more add revenue and couple thousand more season tickets then expected, then payroll would go up with that bump. When he said "less than 10M" in the quote, he meant more like 2-3M. Above is straight from Nick.

C.) Rosenthal is wrong about Machado. Nick was told that he was told by Dbacks front office that what happened was D Backs called the Orioles before the holidays to see what their asking price was , and didn't get any answer back . So they called again a week later to follow up. They got the asking price, and clearly it was too high. That was the extent of the D Backs being "aggressive". The Orioles were the source of Rosenthal's article, and why the presented the D Backs making 2 phone calls as being aggressive and hot to trot was "bemusing" the D Backs.


Now.... moving on:

Current payroll is approx 120M. There are 20 Guaranteed contracts and arb awards, PLUS estimates for the remaining 5 slots going to pre arb guys Plus another dozen or so making league minimum for partial season). BB-Ref has 116.5 but they are low as they are only showing the 5 remaining slots estimate, 2.7 M. (minimum is 545K)

So that 120 figure is ALREADY at least 12-15 M more than last year, and 10M higher than what DH indicated things would be if projected revenue were a little higher than when he interviewed with Nick.


Gambo may be right, and have good info on JD. Whether or not that is a good move is a different debate. I am not saying it's impossible they sign JD.

What I am saying, and I am willing to bet $500 bucks on right here right now with the board as my witness, the d backs won't OPEN THE SEASON with a 145M payroll. which is the number you gave.

For the sake of being fair, I'll even make the bet at 140M, straight up over/under

You game ?

EDIT: In all the above numbers, ALL of Greinke's salary is being counted even though some is deferred. That is because all or most the deferred amount must still be funded separately (MLB instituted this rule due to Jerry Colangelo's deferrals that weren't funded and necessitated the team taking out a loan from MLB to cover payroll)


Good info, Shoe. I copied you on my tweets to Gambo but he's non-responsive on the payroll issue after his newest JDM tweet.

So is the payroll as of today... 107 or 115 or what? I was lead to believe it was 115. Either way, my point wasn't necessarily 140 or 145, it was roughly a 20MM lift over wherever we sit now. IF they were to sign JDM for 20MM, or north of that, for 1 year, then they wouldn't shed a significant piece in order to do it.

So I need clarity before making the bet - need to actually know where the payroll sits today. AND... any bet would stipulate that we actually sign JDM to activate the bet. I still maintain it's more likely JDM takes the 100MM and /or Boston ups that number and he takes it. I do hold it out as a possibility he takes the 1 yr, but it's not the most likely outcome. I obviously never said we'd raise the payroll 20MM plus without JDM or Machado (sounds like Machado isn't very real). So what I'd do with you, I'll take the current payroll number and add 20MM to it and take the over, but JDM has to sign here for the bet to be valid. Again, I've always said the only way they'd significantly escalate the payroll this year was for 1 yr of JDM or Machado. Make sense?


First let me help you out with the clarity on where payroll actually sits today. Because I am crystal clear. So please join me in clarity. :)

Where they are at right now is almost exactly 119.61 M

1.) 20 players already signed 114.03
(Note, I include the 4.7 M figure for Shelby Miller as 20th player, he gets either 4.7 or 4.9)

The above numbers are known, published and absolutely correct

2.) 5 Pre arb players to fill out 25 man roster. 2.85 M
League Minimum for 2018 is 545,000 but these 5 players will be tendered between 550,000 and 580,000, or in other words slightly above league minimum. I put in 580 for 4 of them and 550 for Murphy. We are literally only talking tens of thousands possible variance here for these 5 players. IOW the 2.85 M Estimate could not possibly be lower than 2.75 and definitely no higher than 2.95.

So the above brings you to 116.88, which is almost exactly what Baseball Reference has.

BUT......


3.) You have to include an estimate for all the callups from the 40 man roster during the season to fill in during the season. In fact the team will use anywhere from 45 to 50 players per year.

The way you estimate is as follows:

20 players x .25 of a season, x 545,000 = 2,725,000.

Adding that 2.73 M brings you too 119.61.

Now of course they could have extremely poor luck or extremely good luck with injuries, so the amount they have to set aside
for callups can vary. But it's between 2-4 Million any way you slice it.

See below for further details player by player.

Code:
Name   Salary
Zack Greinke   34.00
Yasmany Tomas   13.50
Paul Goldschmidt   11.10
Patrick Corbin   7.50
A.J. Pollock   7.75
Taijuan Walker   4.83
Jake Lamb   4.28
Jeff Mathis   2.00
Robbie Ray   3.95
Chris Owings   3.40
Daniel Descalso   2.00
David Peralta   3.30
Randall Delgado   2.25
Brad Boxberger   1.85
Chris Herrmann   1.30
Nick Ahmed   1.27
Andrew Chafin   1.20
T.J. McFarland   0.85
Shelby Miller   4.70
Yoshihisa Hirano   3.00
Archie Bradley   0.58
Brandon Drury   0.58
Ketel Marte   0.58
Zack Godley   0.58
John Ryan Murphy   0.55
20 x .25 x .545   2.73
   119.61



Finally, if your conditions for the bet are

A.) The team opening day payroll will be minimum 140 M, using publicly available info as we have been doing
B.) They will have had to have added at least one of Martinez or Machado

Then you have a bet.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 5:35 am 
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D Backs sign Fernando Salsa to a minor league deal.

While usually these kinds of things are looked at as low risk options with upside, I actually would sleep with one eye open with this guy. He's good enough to make hay in spring and impress with his stuff, but his last 3 years track record very spotty.

ZIPS likes him a bit better than Steamer for 2018. 4.01 ERA vs. 4.38 ERA projection.

Watch the homers. Last 3 years, 1.2 HR/9


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:31 am 
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Salas* :p

Because I couldn't find a "Salsa" on BR. :oops:

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:33 am 
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haha gonna have to leave my typo there for prosperity .....


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 11:08 am 
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Mmmmmmmm...salsa.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:24 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
D Backs sign Fernando Salsa to a minor league deal.

While usually these kinds of things are looked at as low risk options with upside, I actually would sleep with one eye open with this guy. He's good enough to make hay in spring and impress with his stuff, but his last 3 years track record very spotty.

ZIPS likes him a bit better than Steamer for 2018. 4.01 ERA vs. 4.38 ERA projection.

Watch the homers. Last 3 years, 1.2 HR/9


This team is not complete without a player named Fernando that drives everyone crazy when he pitches. :D

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:25 pm 
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Blazek, Bastardo, and Medlen also added to the bullpen mix. Bastardo apparently in the mix for closer (Could possibly $4M in incentives if he wins the role according to Nightengale)

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 6:14 pm 
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Not good signs here


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 25, 2018 6:30 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:



Not good at all.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 9:52 am 
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David B wrote:
The Yankees have no need for Tomas. They already have four outfielders for three spots and a DH (Judge, Stanton, Hicks and Gardner). Ellsbury at least offers some value as a defensive replacement. He was able to contribute 1.7 WAR as a part time player. Tomas offers them nothing really (-0.5 WAR, which includes only 0.2 oWAR).

For the Yankees the trade would be a mere salary dump, creating about $7 million more space under the luxury tax threshold.

The Yankees could stash Tomas, who apparently has all three options remaining, in the minors. With his contract, Tomas almost certainly would clear waivers, meaning he would not even occupy a slot on the 40-man roster. His salary, however, would continue to count against the luxury tax limit after a post-Rusney Castillo change in the rules.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:22 am 
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Keep dreaming. There's no way the Yankees would ever do this deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:30 pm 
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He's right about the options though, I checked with a couple sources to make sure.

That DOES make such a move more plausible than at first glance. I agree it won't happen, but factoring in the options make this a creative idea.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:13 am 
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Jim Bowden speculating on a Corbin for Domingo Santana deal.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:10 am 
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I think I would be ok with that, but it IS Jim Bowden. Was this something he thought up, or is there a source? I also want to see what David and Shoe think.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 10:48 am 
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Santana at 24 is already what Yasmany Tomas was supposed to be.

For sure he is a below average defender, and he strikes out a lot. (29% last year, 31% for career)

But he has a ton of power, and a more than respectable career OBP of .353 and a 115 OPS+

Steamer projects him .258.353/.472 113 wRC+

ZIPS almost identical, .252/.352/.472 113 wRC+

Looking at his Career splits page

Hit righties really well last year for first time in his career.
Hit much better on the road for his career. Miller park is hitters park too, although not extreme at all
Has really good numbers w/ RISP , 2 out RISP and High Leverage. Not sustainable probably, but better they're good than bad.

He took a very free swinging approach last year, his swing percentages jumped

By the second half of the season his K%, which had shown a lot of improvement in the first half compared to his previous work, really jumped, and with that, his production, (wOBA) crashed and he slumped. But he made a late season adjustment and seemed to get back on track.

see this graph

Already a solid bet to be at least a 2 WAR player, and possibly 3+, if he ever got his K% under 25% he could contend for an MVP award.

Arb eligible 2019, FA 2022

4 years of control , ages 25-28, absolute prime, 1 at pre arb minimum wage, for just 1 year of Corbin at 7.5 M ?

yeah, sign me up for that. But I doubt Milwaukee accepts that deal. Would have to be another player involved. Corbin not enough value. Milwaukee isn't stupid.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:14 pm 
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Good analysis, shoe. You and I discussed Corbin/Santana as the framework of a trade a while back in another thread. But yes, Milwaukee would need to get more back.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:18 am 
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I would imagine that the Brewers would ask for Duplantier or Smith as that extra player, which is probably more than the Dbacks would be willing to pay for Santana. After those two the best prospects that are even close are Banda and Clarke, who I don't imagine would get moved if Corbin gets dealt in a deal with Santana coming back. Wilson has upside as a potential above average CF, but just completed Low A in his 4th year in the system (Age 20). I'm not sure the Brewers take Drury in that deal either unless they think Villar is better suited for a utility role or that Shaw can't hit LHP. If the Brewers are looking to maximize prospect return, the Diamondbacks probably don't match up well with only 2 Top 100 guys.

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