Register    Login    Forum    Search    FAQ

Board index » AZ Diamondbacks » Team News




 Page 7 of 10 [ 200 posts ] Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next



Author Message
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:22 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:19 pm
Posts: 8564
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Well, if McCutchen is playing in LF instead of CF that isn't a bad trade for the Giants.

Not the MVP level hitter he once was, but can still be productive. Defense has fallen off a lot.

_________________
When giant corndogs and ice cream are more important than winning baseball


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:48 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
Yeah, that should be a significant upgrade to their offense. Like you said, no longer elite. But still very good.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 9:41 pm 
Offline

Joined: Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:13 pm
Posts: 4
Would anyone trade Yasmany Tomas for Jacoby Ellsbury and cash?

Three years of misfielder Yasmany Tomas at $42.5 million (assuming he exercises two player options)
to the New York Yankees for
Three years of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at $68.5 million
$13 million in cash

With Tomas' AAV of only $11.4 million, the Yankees save about $7 million annually for luxury tax purposes, freeing up money to pursue Yu Darvish or another high-profile player.

The trade represents a salary dump for the Yankees as Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.8 for the 34-year-old Eillsbury and a negative 0.1 for the 27-year-old Tomas. ZiPS projects Ellsbury with a 2018 WAR of 1.3 in 473 plate appearances but has not released a projection for Tomas.

The Diamondbacks, who can't afford Tomas' woeful glove in the field, get a modest upgrade in left field at a net $4.3 million annually. Tomas, who has three options remaining, is better suited in the American League where the lefty-masher can serve as a designated hitter.

Ellsbury, who has a no-trade clause, reportedly maintains his offseason home in Scottsdale and as a child spent some summers with his grandmother on the Navajo Reservation.

Thoughts?


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 9:18 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 286
harmony wrote:
Would anyone trade Yasmany Tomas for Jacoby Ellsbury and cash?

Three years of misfielder Yasmany Tomas at $42.5 million (assuming he exercises two player options)
to the New York Yankees for
Three years of outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury at $68.5 million
$13 million in cash

With Tomas' AAV of only $11.4 million, the Yankees save about $7 million annually for luxury tax purposes, freeing up money to pursue Yu Darvish or another high-profile player.

The trade represents a salary dump for the Yankees as Steamer600, which assumes 600 plate appearances for each hitter, projects 2018 WAR of 0.8 for the 34-year-old Eillsbury and a negative 0.1 for the 27-year-old Tomas. ZiPS projects Ellsbury with a 2018 WAR of 1.3 in 473 plate appearances but has not released a projection for Tomas.

The Diamondbacks, who can't afford Tomas' woeful glove in the field, get a modest upgrade in left field at a net $4.3 million annually. Tomas, who has three options remaining, is better suited in the American League where the lefty-masher can serve as a designated hitter.

Ellsbury, who has a no-trade clause, reportedly maintains his offseason home in Scottsdale and as a child spent some summers with his grandmother on the Navajo Reservation.

Thoughts?


No thanks.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 10:46 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2323
Location: Portland, OR
The Yankees have no need for Tomas. They already have four outfielders for three spots and a DH (Judge, Stanton, Hicks and Gardner). Ellsbury at least offers some value as a defensive replacement. He was able to contribute 1.7 WAR as a part time player. Tomas offers them nothing really (-0.5 WAR, which includes only 0.2 oWAR).


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:51 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
also being discussed in the Tomas Thread

a little more fleshed out there.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 12:49 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2012 1:33 am
Posts: 913
Location: Tucson
Switching topics....to Second Base this year. Is Drury really the shoe-in (pun not intended) at 2nd? I know that Owings has had repeated bad luck with injuries over the past few seasons. But I was comparing Drury vs. Owings stats (offense and defense) last week, and to my layman's eyes I thought Owings should be lock at starting 2B if after ST both are equal.

To the Board in general....who would you put in at 2nd base? Thanks in advance.

_________________
2014: What a joke; Team. Manager. GM. CEO. Cindy Brunson. Todd Walsh. Steve Berthiaume. Polo shirts. Entire organization. I want to insert that 18-inch corn dog into each one of their a$$es...slowly. Then re-sell the corn dogs to Dodger fans.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:43 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:29 pm
Posts: 7712
Location: Tucson
shoewizard wrote:
also being discussed in the Tomas Thread

a little more fleshed out there.



Harmony double posted.

_________________
Per Mare, Per Terras
32


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 5:33 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Aug 22, 2016 4:44 pm
Posts: 2
Jethawker wrote:
Switching topics....to Second Base this year. Is Drury really the shoe-in (pun not intended) at 2nd? I know that Owings has had repeated bad luck with injuries over the past few seasons. But I was comparing Drury vs. Owings stats (offense and defense) last week, and to my layman's eyes I thought Owings should be lock at starting 2B if after ST both are equal.

To the Board in general....who would you put in at 2nd base? Thanks in advance.


Gotta be a combination of Drury and Descalso with Owings covering against LHP. The potential Machado deal is interesting because it strengthens both positions.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:08 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
Machado deal highly unlikely.

The idea that AZ was being very aggressive is actually not true. They made a couple of calls, because they didn't get a call back to the first one. Baltimore leaked and blew it up, and Rosenthal ran with it.

Never say never I guess, but very low odds of this deal happening.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:11 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
Jethawker wrote:
Switching topics....to Second Base this year. Is Drury really the shoe-in (pun not intended) at 2nd? I know that Owings has had repeated bad luck with injuries over the past few seasons. But I was comparing Drury vs. Owings stats (offense and defense) last week, and to my layman's eyes I thought Owings should be lock at starting 2B if after ST both are equal.

To the Board in general....who would you put in at 2nd base? Thanks in advance.


Owings value on offense forever hindered by his low walk rate. It just puts a hard cap on his potential contribution.

Drury projects to out OPS Owings by about 45 points. (.757-.713 per Steamer)

And Drury's defense at 2b wasn't bad.

But Drury got in Torey's doghouse last summer, and could be on the trade block still.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:45 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 286
Red Sox offer to JDM confirmed 5yr 100MM. If they don't move, I think the 1 yr 25MM offer from AZ is really viable.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:27 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2323
Location: Portland, OR
AZ isn't taking their payroll to $145 MM, even to sign JDM. So where do you see them cutting $25 MM to fit him in?


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:02 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 286
David B wrote:
AZ isn't taking their payroll to $145 MM, even to sign JDM.


How do you know this? Gambo reported they would sign him for a 1 year run at 20-25MM. He said they would not sign him for 5 yr 100 like Boston is offering. He didn't just make that up. He has a lot of sources in the organization. And they're not signing JDM just to then dump Greinke. The plan would be to rebuild next year, but give it 1 more run in the last year of guys like AJ, Corbin, and maybe a Goldy trade. Then their payroll will come way down next year just by those guys coming off the books. No trades necessary at that point. Businesses don't have to forecast their budget on a 1 year basis. They could still have a 2 year target budget of 230-240 where they spend 145 this year and 90, or less, next year. As long as they know it's not a long term deal ala Greinke, they could go 145MM this year knowing that they could organically get to around 90 next year.

It makes sense. You have 2 years left on Goldy and one on AJ and Corbin. They're really in a catch 22. It's going to be too expensive to keep all those guys beyond this upcoming year, but it's probably a year early to cash out and rebuild coming off last year's run with nearly everyone back. The ideal play is to go all in this year, without having to do so with long term deals. That's why you're seeing them so aggressive after a guy like Machado. It's 1 year to give one last shot with this group. Then I think you see the big shakeup next offseason unless they win the World series or something crazy like that. Then you can sell the rebuild to your fans that you gave it an all in year, now it's time to retool.

Obviously, this all hinges on either acquiring Machado or resigning JDM for 1 year. I agree that JDM probably won't do this, but I believe AZ would. And there is a line of thinking that JDM could get 25 this year and maybe get the same 5 -100 next year. then he gets 6 and 125 instead of 5 and 100. He's going to put up numbers this year and will be a good backup option for teams that save up for Harper and lose out with money to spend next offseason. From the AZ perspective, elevating the payroll for 1 year and knowing it will organically come down south of 100MM next year is a whole lot different than signing guys to multiyear deals or dealing a bunch of prospects.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:14 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
I know this. There is no way d backs open with a 145 payroll. Thats pure fantasy


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:23 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 286
shoewizard wrote:
I know this. There is no way d backs open with a 145 payroll. Thats pure fantasy


Ok, we can agree to disagree. Gambo says that a 1 yr deal IS ON THE TABLE for JDM right now. Also a 2 year deal with a 1 year player option. That's pretty specific for him to just be making up. Given that I believe what he says is accurate, I see no way to clear 25mil at this point, so I do believe they'd go 140. What about Machado? They've been reportedly the most aggressive player there. That's 18 million. Do you not believe Rosenthal's reports? If you do, then they're willing to go toward 140 to get Machado. How dumb would it be to get Machado or JDM for 1 year but unload Greinke for that year? Would make no sense, and there is no evidence they could even offload ZG in anything that makes sense for them.

Again, unless they're selling the team after this year, the key for them would be to make sure the budget averages 115 or whatever they want over 2 years.

I believe They're getting that 50MM one time payout anyway from BAM, so they could use that to front the overage this year and pay themselves back next year. I get the cynicism, but in the face of what is being reported, and given the 1-2 year horizon pg most of our team, this is different.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:19 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2010 10:27 am
Posts: 2323
Location: Portland, OR
Why would you blindly believe Gambo and totally dismiss Derrick Hall?

"The Diamondbacks’ payroll will be “close to where we’ve been the last couple of years.” The club ended last season somewhere above $105 million and next year’s roster projects north of $115 million."


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:38 am 
Offline

Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 10:59 am
Posts: 437
98dback wrote:
Ok, we can agree to disagree. Gambo says that a 1 yr deal IS ON THE TABLE for JDM right now. Also a 2 year deal with a 1 year player option. That's pretty specific for him to just be making up. Given that I believe what he says is accurate, I see no way to clear 25mil at this point, so I do believe they'd go 140. What about Machado? They've been reportedly the most aggressive player there. That's 18 million. Do you not believe Rosenthal's reports? If you do, then they're willing to go toward 140 to get Machado. How dumb would it be to get Machado or JDM for 1 year but unload Greinke for that year? Would make no sense, and there is no evidence they could even offload ZG in anything that makes sense for them.

Again, unless they're selling the team after this year, the key for them would be to make sure the budget averages 115 or whatever they want over 2 years.

I believe They're getting that 50MM one time payout anyway from BAM, so they could use that to front the overage this year and pay themselves back next year. I get the cynicism, but in the face of what is being reported, and given the 1-2 year horizon pg most of our team, this is different.

About as dumb as spending a bunch of money on Greinke, then not addressing the other glaring holes. Less dumb than emptying the farm system for Haren, then not addressing the other glaring holes. Less dumb than drafting a college reliever instead of Gerrit Cole in order to save a few bucks. Less dumb than drafting Jarrod Parker instead of Rick Porcello to save a few bucks. Less dumb than trading Martin Prado for Happy Gilmore to save a few bucks. Less dumb than waiving Will Harris to save a few bucks. Probably less dumb than trading Touki Touissant to save a few bucks.

Kendrick has a decade-plus track record of prioritizing their bottom-third payroll position over talent and winning games.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:35 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:54 pm
Posts: 286
David B wrote:
Why would you blindly believe Gambo and totally dismiss Derrick Hall?

"The Diamondbacks’ payroll will be “close to where we’ve been the last couple of years.” The club ended last season somewhere above $105 million and next year’s roster projects north of $115 million."


So Gambo is making up a supposed 1 yr and 2 yr option deal being on the table for JDM? Doubtful. He has pretty good sources with the Dbacks and Suns. Do you not believe Rosenthal on Machado either? The odds of both Rosenthal and Gambo making these both of these things up are remote. So if you believe either or both, then the Dbacks are ok with, and actively trying to add, between 18-25 million for 1 year depending on which one they could get. So then it's really not debatable whether they're ok adding the money. The question is then, do they plan to dump salary to offset, which may not be easy to do or they may have already done it? That wouldn't make sense to me since either of those 2 would be on a 1 year deal, but it hasn't been answered by Gambo yet either.

Regarding something Hall said to the media, do you really think Derrick is going to come out in December and talk about elevating the payroll when there is no deal in place necessitating them to do so? That would be an insanely stupid overpromise at the time. At that point, Machado was a pipe dream (still probably is, but they're trying) and JDM getting big money elsewhere was a near certainty. Now that things could change and they could end up with one of these 2 guys for 1 year, I assume he could go to Ken and say, "we will bump to 140 this year, then we can organically get back to 90 or less next year just by guys coming off the books". The unexpected chance to get JDM or Machado for a single year certainly changes the calculus from when D Hall last spoke.


Top 
 Post subject: Re: 2017-18 off season General discussion thread
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:47 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 4:27 pm
Posts: 12182
OK, 98, here is where we are:

1.) I spoke to Nick Piecoro over the phone the other day to clarify some things.

A.) DH said Last year's payroll ended at between 107-108M, and DH said they would be "around that".

B.) Very specifically what Nick told me is that when DH said IF revenues might increase a bit over projections, and he was talking about maybe a bit more add revenue and couple thousand more season tickets then expected, then payroll would go up with that bump. When he said "less than 10M" in the quote, he meant more like 2-3M. Above is straight from Nick.

C.) Rosenthal is wrong about Machado. Nick was told that he was told by Dbacks front office that what happened was D Backs called the Orioles before the holidays to see what their asking price was , and didn't get any answer back . So they called again a week later to follow up. They got the asking price, and clearly it was too high. That was the extent of the D Backs being "aggressive". The Orioles were the source of Rosenthal's article, and why the presented the D Backs making 2 phone calls as being aggressive and hot to trot was "bemusing" the D Backs.


Now.... moving on:

Current payroll is approx 120M. There are 20 Guaranteed contracts and arb awards, PLUS estimates for the remaining 5 slots going to pre arb guys Plus another dozen or so making league minimum for partial season). BB-Ref has 116.5 but they are low as they are only showing the 5 remaining slots estimate, 2.7 M. (minimum is 545K)

So that 120 figure is ALREADY at least 12-15 M more than last year, and 10M higher than what DH indicated things would be if projected revenue were a little higher than when he interviewed with Nick.


Gambo may be right, and have good info on JD. Whether or not that is a good move is a different debate. I am not saying it's impossible they sign JD.

What I am saying, and I am willing to bet $500 bucks on right here right now with the board as my witness, the d backs won't OPEN THE SEASON with a 145M payroll. which is the number you gave.

For the sake of being fair, I'll even make the bet at 140M, straight up over/under

You game ?

EDIT: In all the above numbers, ALL of Greinke's salary is being counted even though some is deferred. That is because all or most the deferred amount must still be funded separately (MLB instituted this rule due to Jerry Colangelo's deferrals that weren't funded and necessitated the team taking out a loan from MLB to cover payroll)


Top 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
 
 Page 7 of 10 [ 200 posts ] Go to page Previous  1 ... 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10  Next




Board index » AZ Diamondbacks » Team News


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

 
 

 
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to: