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 Post subject: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:15 pm 
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So I am going to go with the idea that Zack Greinke will start the Wild Card Game no matter what. (Although Tony LaRussa said if HE were in Charge he might start Ray and hold Greinke back for the NLDS. :evil: )

One might want to look at Greinke's record against the possible teams he will face, but he has been around a long time and those W-L records and ERA figures, etc are comprised of games played years ago against players no longer on those teams. So it might be better to look at Greinke's head to head numbers against CURRENT members of the potential Wild Card Opponents:

Greinke vs. Current Rockies Hitters table below. It's a mixed bag. In the past he has been hurt by the long ball vs. Cargo, Story and Lucroy. Worse last year than this year of course. But plenty of success from some of their hitters vs. Greinke.


















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Jonathan Lucroy12117010111.636.667.8181.485
Trevor Story25248104916.333.360.8751.235
Carlos Gonzalez4542141157311.333.378.7621.140
Mike Tauchman221000000.500.500.5001.000
Mark Reynolds383671045214.194.237.556.792
DJ LeMahieu4645143017011.311.311.444.756
Nolan Arenado494713610626.277.306.447.753
Charlie Blackmon5349135003211.265.302.367.669
Alexi Amarista33317101325.226.273.355.628
Gerardo Parra444312100117.279.295.302.598
Ian Desmond22223000007.136.136.136.273
Tony Wolters881000002.125.125.125.250
Ryan Hanigan650000012.000.167.000.167
German Marquez440000001.000.000.000.000
Tyler Anderson320000002.000.000.000.000
Kyle Freeland110000000.000.000.000.000
Total40338410019315421589.260.289.443.732



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

Below table is Greinke vs. the Brewers
Other than Neil Walker, who has taken Greinke deep 4 times, not a ton of success from their guys vs. him, but only Walker and Braun have more than 10 PA vs. Zack. Still....this table looks a lot more favorable than the one above
















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Jesus Aguilar321001110.500.6672.0002.667
Jett Bandy221100300.500.5001.0001.500
Travis Shaw321000010.500.667.5001.167
Neil Walker32308104814.267.313.7001.013
Eric Sogard541100010.250.400.500.900
Domingo Santana331000102.333.333.333.667
Ryan Braun13101000131.100.308.100.408
Matt Garza660000005.000.000.000.000
Eric Thames660000003.000.000.000.000
Chase Anderson220000002.000.000.000.000
Orlando Arcia220000000.000.000.000.000
Keon Broxton220000001.000.000.000.000
Andrew Susac110000000.000.000.000.000
Anthony Swarzak110000000.000.000.000.000
Total81731430514718.192.272.438.710



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

And here are the Cardinals vs. Zack. With the exception of Carpenter, he has handled virtually everyone else with 10 or more PA well, (Wong does have 5 hits and 3 doubles in 16 AB, but the rest are putrid)


















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Matt Carpenter363211302249.344.417.6251.042
Stephen Piscotty773000100.429.429.429.857
Kolten Wong16165300003.313.313.500.813
Aledmys Diaz762000010.333.429.333.762
Paul DeJong331000101.333.333.333.667
Tommy Pham331000000.333.333.333.667
Randal Grichuk13132110004.154.154.385.538
Yadier Molina444210200317.238.250.286.536
Harrison Bader320000012.000.333.000.333
Jedd Gyorko23191000044.053.217.053.270
Dexter Fowler232120002111.095.136.095.232
Lance Lynn540000003.000.000.000.000
Adam Wainwright430000002.000.000.000.000
Matthew Bowman210000001.000.000.000.000
Juan Nicasio220000002.000.000.000.000
Luke Voit110000001.000.000.000.000
Total1921753891291250.217.266.314.580



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.


I think if I had my druthers, I'd rather go against Milwaukee. But Chase Anderson has been lights out against D Backs hitters. (Presuming he would get the start)



















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Paul Goldschmidt12113100014.273.333.364.697
Jake Lamb12110000115.000.083.000.083
Gregor Blanco982001111.250.333.625.958
David Peralta551000001.200.200.200.400
Jorge De La Rosa430000003.000.000.000.000
Daniel Descalso430000012.000.250.000.250
Chris Iannetta440000001.000.000.000.000
Braden Shipley441100001.250.250.500.750
Rey Fuentes330000002.000.000.000.000
Jeremy Hazelbaker321100000.500.5001.0001.500
J.D. Martinez330000001.000.000.000.000
Brandon Drury210000010.000.500.000.500
Zack Greinke220000002.000.000.000.000
Chris Herrmann220000001.000.000.000.000
Kristopher Negron221000000.500.500.5001.000
Robbie Ray220000001.000.000.000.000
Ketel Marte1111001001.0001.0002.0003.000
Total7467104013525.149.208.254.462



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

Looking at D Backs vs. Cardinals Carlos Martinez not a pretty picture
















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Kristopher Negron1110001001.0001.0001.0002.000
Gregor Blanco11105110210.500.545.8001.345
Chris Herrmann542000211.500.600.5001.100
Patrick Corbin221000001.500.500.5001.000
Taijuan Walker221000001.500.500.5001.000
Jake Lamb1193100111.333.455.444.899
Daniel Descalso861100022.167.375.333.708
Ketel Marte331000001.333.333.333.667
Paul Goldschmidt16122000044.167.375.167.542
Chris Iannetta661100202.167.167.333.500
David Peralta14132000015.154.214.154.368
Brandon Drury540000001.000.200.000.200
A.J. Pollock550000101.000.000.000.000
J.D. Martinez330000001.000.000.000.000
Total92802041091021.250.348.325.673



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

And although the numbers vs. Lance Lynn look ok, the damage is by all the wrong guys

















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Zack Greinke664000000.667.667.6671.333
David Peralta13115001223.455.538.7271.266
Ketel Marte552200001.400.400.8001.200
Gregor Blanco23187120352.389.522.6671.188
Jorge De La Rosa221000000.500.500.5001.000
Jake Lamb12103000121.300.417.300.717
Paul Goldschmidt20184001322.222.300.389.689
A.J. Pollock18175000014.294.333.294.627
Daniel Descalso420000120.000.500.000.500
J.D. Martinez13112000122.182.308.182.490
Kristopher Negron320000012.000.333.000.333
Chris Iannetta870000105.000.000.000.000
Taijuan Walker320000001.000.000.000.000
Patrick Corbin220000001.000.000.000.000
Chris Herrmann220000000.000.000.000.000
Total13411533322121724.287.376.400.776



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

If we faced the Rockies, not sure if we would face Freeland, Marquez, or Gray. Some good numbers against all of them actually. So maybe while we have seen Colorado so much and we might not feel comfortable with that, perhaps they are afraid to have their pitchers face us again.



Vs. Freeland















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Paul Goldschmidt751000120.200.429.200.629
Chris Iannetta751000021.200.429.200.629
David Peralta760000010.000.143.000.143
A.J. Pollock763010110.500.571.8331.405
Brandon Drury652000011.400.500.400.900
J.D. Martinez432100100.667.5001.0001.500
Adam Rosales331100000.333.333.6671.000
Daniel Descalso220000001.000.000.000.000
Jake Lamb220000002.000.000.000.000
Robbie Ray221000001.500.500.5001.000
Taijuan Walker221000101.500.500.5001.000
Zack Greinke1110001001.0001.0001.0002.000
Ketel Marte1000000101.000
Total514213210587.310.412.405.817



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

Vs. Marquez





















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Paul Goldschmidt15106102440.600.7331.3002.033
Adam Rosales1110000001.0001.0001.0002.000
A.J. Pollock553110000.600.6001.2001.800
J.D. Martinez221100100.500.5001.0001.500
Ketel Marte883001101.375.375.7501.125
Patrick Corbin442000001.500.500.5001.000
David Peralta15134300322.308.400.538.938
Jake Lamb19197100206.368.368.421.789
Brandon Drury16163201302.188.188.500.688
Gregor Blanco872000013.286.375.286.661
Jeremy Hazelbaker551100001.200.200.400.600
Daniel Descalso772000001.286.286.286.571
Chris Iannetta881100006.125.125.250.375
Chris Herrmann550000001.000.000.000.000
Zack Greinke440000000.000.000.000.000
Rey Fuentes330000000.000.000.000.000
Kristopher Negron330000001.000.000.000.000
Zack Godley210000001.000.000.000.000
Taijuan Walker220000000.000.000.000.000
Total13212336111414726.293.336.496.832



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

And vs. Gray





















NamePAABH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
Jeremy Hazelbaker1110000001.0001.0001.0002.000
J.D. Martinez662002402.333.3331.3331.667
A.J. Pollock873300102.429.375.8571.232
Chris Iannetta321000000.500.667.5001.167
David Peralta13136010003.462.462.6151.077
Taijuan Walker221000000.500.500.5001.000
Brandon Drury983100113.375.444.500.944
Chris Herrmann541100011.250.400.500.900
Jake Lamb15134200213.308.333.462.795
Ketel Marte662000001.333.333.333.667
Daniel Descalso872000013.286.375.286.661
Patrick Corbin210000011.000.500.000.500
Gregor Blanco551000000.200.200.200.400
Paul Goldschmidt12110000105.000.000.000.000
Archie Bradley220000001.000.000.000.000
Robbie Ray220000002.000.000.000.000
Rey Fuentes110000001.000.000.000.000
Adam Rosales110000001.000.000.000.000
Ildemaro Vargas110000000.000.000.000.000
Total10293277129529.290.324.452.775



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 9/21/2017.

It's only one game. So nothing is really predictable anyway, but this is what we do :D

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:45 pm 
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If I were managing an elimination game and I could choose any pitcher on the staff to pitch the game it would be Greinke and there's no deliberation about it. TLR is a HOF manager and he wouldn't. Something's not right.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 4:55 pm 
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Oden wrote:
If I were managing an elimination game and I could choose any pitcher on the staff to pitch the game it would be Greinke and there's no deliberation about it. TLR is a HOF manager and he wouldn't. Something's not right.



No to take anything away from TLR, but I think some of his teams would have won with anyone. Like BB with us in 2001, Wally Bachman would have won.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 7:01 pm 
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I think they have to go with Greinke since he is the only SP with playoff experience. Win the WC game and worry about the NLDS after.


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:36 am 
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So looking at the schedule, I think I would do something perhaps unconventional, but to me it makes sense.

Zack Greinke's next turn in the rotation would be Wednesday 9/27 against the Giants. That is the final home game of the regular season.

The team has a day off on the 28th. then face the royals on the road on Sept 29th, 30th, and October 1, followed by 2 off days the 2nd and 3rd, and Finally the big game on October 4th, which is a Wednesday.


If Zack makes the 9/27 start, then his next start after that would be the 10/4 WC game, on 6 days rest.
I wonder if he will be sharp. His career Strikeout to Walk Ratio by Days Rest suggest not as sharp:

SO/Walk Career:
4 Days: 4.53
5 Days: 3.15
6 Days: 2.89

And for 2017 similar
4 Days: 5.89
5 Days: 4.55
6 Days: 2.80

What I would do is give Zack some extra rest NOW, and push him back to the 9/29 start vs KC, giving him a couple extra days recovery, and then I would cap his pitch count in that game at about 75 pitches.

I think that gives him the extra recovery time he needs right now, because he was looking tired in his last start . And a shortened pitch count in the last game will allow him to recover faster for the Wild Card Game, but he will be on normal 4 days rest, when he is actually his sharpest. Best of both worlds. Well rested, AND Sharp.

They have probably already made up their minds, but I hope they consider this.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Last edited by shoewizard on Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:01 am 
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I had similar concerns about Greinke. I posted (Dbacks MB) that I thought it best to start him on 9/30 to give him five days rest for the WC game. That was without the benefit of the research you did.


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:06 am 
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dbackfanron wrote:
I had similar concerns about Greinke. I posted (Dbacks MB) that I thought it best to start him on 9/30 to give him five days rest for the WC game. That was without the benefit of the research you did.


If he started on 9/30 he would be pitching on 10/4 with only 3 days rest.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:07 pm 
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Looks like team is going to do as I suggested:
Nick Piecoro on Twitter
Quote:
Lovullo says Dbacks are considering pushing Greinke's next start to this weekend, setting him up for wild card game.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 4:28 pm 
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Yes, that's the great part about clinching so early. While the other WC team will have to fight it out for another week the D-backs get to give guys a day or two off and line up their rotation. If they're not 1 and done Lovullo can have his optimal team set up for the next series. The only way it would be better is if they didn't have to travel to KC for 3 games, but at least they get 2 days off after that.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 8:30 am 
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Mike Hazen :
Quote:
“I think if he pitches on Friday then he’s staying on rhythm (for the wild-card game) on a five-day routine that he’s had all year long,” General Manager Mike Hazen said. “And then you can back down the pitch count on Friday, too. It’s not like you have to ask him to go out there and throw 120 pitches if he throws on Friday.”


AZ Central, Nick P

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:26 pm 
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Nick Piecoro @nickpiecoro
now
Torey Lovullo says Braden Shipley will start on Wednesday vs. Giants. Greinke on Friday, Walker on Saturday, TBA on Sunday.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:25 am 
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Nick Piecoro @nickpiecoro
41s
Robbie Ray will start Sunday. "Probably a shorter outing," Torey Lovullo said. Corbin and Godley will pitch in relief this weekend.

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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:30 am 
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So.....Roster for the Wild Card Game. Here is mine

Catcher: Carry 3. If there is an injury or long game you need an emergency catcher. ESPECIALLY if they start Mathis, because if the team is behind in the mid innings, they will need to pinch hit for him. I personally would like to see Mathis catch at least 1 of the remaining 4 games. Otherwise I am not at all comfortable with him catching the Wild Card Game, and I think it would be a huge mistake if he cannot prove himself healthy enough in one of the 4 remaining games.

Iannetta
Herrmann
Mathis or Murphy

Infield:

1b- Goldy
2b- Drury
3b-Lamb
SS- Marte

Util : Descalso/Rosales/Vargas/Walker.

You need the right handed pinch hitter in Walker.

OF

LF- Peralta
CF- Pollock
RF- Martinez
4th: Blanco
5th: Hazelbaker or Fuentes ?

Debate here is if you want a potential pinch runner in Fuentes or if you want the potential left handed power in Hazelbaker.

So that is 16 position players, and still needing to make the choice between Mathis or Murphy at Catcher and Fuentes and Hazelbaker at Outfield


Pitching Staff
Greinke SP
Rodney 9th
Bradley 8th

Mid Innings, depends on matchups what inning they come in

Sherfy
Chafin
Hernandez** (Note Hernandez only to be used as a ROOGY....must not face LHB)
One of Jorge De Larosa or TJ McFarland (You don't need both...see below)

Long Men:

Assuming Godley is pitching game 2 in the NLDS if they get past Colorado, then you can't use him in this game. (And obviously Ray can't be on this roster as well)

So long men are then Corbin and Walker. If Greinke gets knocked out very early, or if the game goes extra innings, you need a couple of guys that can give you length from either side.

So that is a 9 man pitching staff, and you still need to decide between De La Rosa or McFarland


SUMMARY:

So above you have 16 position players, and 9 pitchers for the WC Game and have 3 tough choices to make

Can Mathis play and should you start him ?,
Who is the 5th outfielder ?,
which LOOGY do you want to take ?

Other thoughts ? Anyone you want to see on the roster I'm not taking with me ?

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 1:42 pm 
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Adding to above, I really don't understand why the rush to have an injured Mathis catch Greinke.

Greinke Numbers just as good with Iannetta behind the dish



SplitGIPERAPA2B3BHRSBCSBBSOSO/WBAOBPSLGOPSBAbip
Chris Iannetta638.23.261491014026335.50.220.252.390.642.260
Jeff Mathis25159.23.166342432056371784.81.228.272.380.652.290



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/27/2017.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:03 am 
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Some more info from Nick Piecoro article

Quote:
General Manager Mike Hazen said the Diamondbacks are expecting to carry either 15 or 16 position players on the 25-man roster.


Quote:
both Hazen and Lovullo seem intrigued by Christian Walker,......We need a right-handed hitting sniper,” Lovullo said. “He’s shown a lot. Strong consideration for me.”

Quote:
Owings is fast and a good baserunner, and the Diamondbacks seem to be considering him as a possible pinch-runner.

(I'd just go with Fuentes here if thats a priority...but whatever)

Quote:
Mathis was hopeful he’d be able to return from the disabled list and play on Friday in Kansas City.
“I’m still going in the right direction,” Mathis said.


The article also goes on to say that Robbie Ray is very likely to be on the roster, and I heard on the radio that the thinking there is Wednesday was a throwing day for him anyway. But throwing in competition is different than throwing in a side session.

That said, as Dave Burns on 98.7 said, if it's the 5th or 6th inning and a few men are on base and Cargo steps up to the plate, maybe bringing in Ray to face him would be a strong option. Gambo took the flip side and was concerned that Ray hasn't pitched in relief at all, and would be out of his normal routine.

Interesting options all the way around, thats for sure.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 10:08 am 
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So its Greinke against Gray on Wednesday.

Lets hope Goldy, who is 0-11, and pretty much 0 for September, suddenly finds life.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 2:37 pm 
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I'm not optimistic about watching the Dbacks on Friday.


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:24 pm 
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Strained Hammy for Marte is concerning. Hopefully he can be at least 95% on Wednesday. (Thats still better than Adam Rosales at SS)

And Peralta is ailing

And Sherfy

Other than Goldy, who's elbow is "fine", who am I missing ? OH and Mathis has played a few innings so there's that . :roll:

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 6:56 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Strained Hammy for Marte is concerning. Hopefully he can be at least 95% on Wednesday. (Thats still better than Adam Rosales at SS)

And Peralta is ailing

And Sherfy

Other than Goldy, who's elbow is "fine", who am I missing ? OH and Mathis has played a few innings so there's that . :roll:

Injury wise I think that's it. Then you have Lamb who has been a black hole in the second half. Not exactly confident in the team right now.


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 Post subject: Re: Wild Card Game Possible Previews
 Post Posted: Sun Oct 01, 2017 11:36 pm 
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My list of concerns:

Jon Gray can be tough to hit

Defense, particularly in the infield

Bullpen, mainly the non-Archie parts even though he sucked on Saturday

Goldy's elbow

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