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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 10:03 am 
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Put up a Twitter Poll

With @DHallDbacks saying payroll will be "around" last 2 yrs, (2017 93M opening day, 105M ending) & projections for current roster @ 115M (including guaranteed, arb, & other) which #dbacks arb eligible player most likely to be traded to make salary room . Arb est. next to name

Pollock (8.5M)
Corbin (8.3M)
Lamb (4.7M)
Miller (4.9M)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:02 pm 
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I see a fit with Arizona and Milwaukee. Corbin doesn't wow me, but he was effective in the second half last year and his salary is lower than going out to get a FA pitcher. Because of their overall outfiield depth Brewers are willing to listen on Domingo Santana, good, young, relatively cheap and controllable through 2021. Corbin doesn't get the deal done, but maybe Corbin and another top pitching prospect does (Miller? Banda returning to Milwaukee organization?). Of course if Milwaukee makes Santana available another team could pony up a better pitcher/package.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:54 pm 
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1 year of Corbin and Banda for the pre arb Santana Coming off 73 walks, 30 homer season at age 24 ?

Sure sign me up, but whats the catch ?


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:06 pm 
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Like I said, if the Brewers make Santana available they're going to get offers that far outstrip what AZ can match.

I'd do Santana for Ray straight up.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:13 pm 
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On the surface, I'd say Ray is off the table. Assuming no health or extreme regression concerns. Ray is the second Ace in the rotation that pushes the team over the top for playoff contention, and would be much more difficult to replace. Greinke/Ray could be up there with the Webb/Haren and RJ/CSchill combos, which the dbax have had decent success with.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:50 am 
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Depends on your definition of "up there". Nobody is going to approach RJ and Schilling 01-02, but Greinke and Ray already pretty much matched what Webb and Haren did in 2008. Would love to see a repeat.

Your comment spurred a little project here. I pulled up the following report

For Single Seasons, Playing for the ARI, From 1901 to 2017, (requiring WAR>=1.5 and At least 80% games started), sorted by most recent date


report link

Using that report, I paired the best 1-2 punches for each season, and then broke them out into Tiers. The gap between Tier 1 and Tiers 2 & 3 is unlikely to ever be bridged. Starting pitchers just don't put up those kind of innings anymore to accumulate that much WAR, let alone that many innings with that kind of dominant quality.

A little surprising to see 2011 rank at the bottom,, but it is what it is.

Combined Pitcher WAR

Tier 1
RJ and Schilling 2001= 18.8
RJ and Schilling 2002= 19.6

Tier 2

RJ and Daal 1999 = 13.9

Tier 3
RJ and Anderson 2000 = 12.2
Schilling and Webb 2003 = 12.2
Webb and Haren 2008 = 11.9
RJ and Webb 2004 = 11.7
Greinke and Ray 2017 = 11.0

Tier 4
Web and Batista 2006 = 9.3
Haren and Davis 2009 = 8.9
Webb and Owings 2007= 8.0

Tier 5
Daal and Benes 1998 = 7.3
Webb and Vasquez 2005 = 7.1
IPK and Hudson 2010 = 6.7
IPK and Saunders 2011 = 6.3 (Or Paired with Hudson 1.5 WAR, same total but due to round doesn't show up on the list as he was under 1.5 technically)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:02 am 
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"Up there",,, obviously not literally matching the RJ/Schill stats, but up there in terms of being a duo of Aces anchoring the front-end of rotation during period of contention.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 11:11 am 
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I wouldn't consider RJ and ODahl/BAnderson as a "duo" of Aces. Maybe a minimum WAR achieved by each to be considered as top duos?

If the Greinke/Ray duo could be in vicinity of 2008 Webb/Haren for a few seasons, that would be fantastic.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:35 pm 
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dirtygary wrote:
I wouldn't consider RJ and ODahl/BAnderson as a "duo" of Aces. Maybe a minimum WAR achieved by each to be considered as top duos?

If the Greinke/Ray duo could be in vicinity of 2008 Webb/Haren for a few seasons, that would be fantastic.


Well I did put the minimum at 1.5 WAR and Anderson had 4.1 WAR that year along with RJ 8.1.

You could narrow down definition as much as u like though just refer to the report and make ur own list


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:18 pm 
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Bob Nightengale

@BNightengale
The Arizona #Dbacks, who have Patrick Corbin on the trade block, have reached a one-Year deal for $7.5 million in his final season before free agency

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:36 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
I was just coming here to post these as well. The MLB Trade Rumors estimates total about 12M more than what I had. There are 7-8 players within just a couple hundred thousand of my estimates, but there are 4 guys they estimate 2-3M or more higher than I did.

If Trade rumors is correct and Arb costs are 52M instead of 40M, then D Backs are REALLY screwed. They would be almost up to 120M without resigning Descalso or Iannetta, let alone JD Martinez.

Don't forget to use right scroll bar. Ranked by biggest difference in the estimates.

Code:
Player       Shoe    TR   TR-Shoe
Lamb         1.80   4.70   2.90
Ray          1.80   4.20   2.40
Corbin       6.00   8.30   2.30
Peralta      1.75   3.80   2.05
Walker       3.50   5.00   1.50
Owings       3.30   4.03   0.73
Delgado      2.30   2.50   0.20
Chaffin      1.00   1.20   0.20
Hoover       1.50   1.60   0.10
McFarland    0.90   1.00   0.10
Miller       4.90   4.90   0.00
Herrmmann    1.50   1.40   -0.10
Pollock      8.75   8.50   -0.25
Ahmed        1.50   1.10   -0.40
            40.50   52.23   11.73


So Corbin settled 7.5, which is lower than what TR had but higher than what I had. TR still closer though.

On Delgado I had 2.3 and he got 2.25, TR had predicted 2.5. Minor win for shoe ;)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:00 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Minor win for shoe ;)


Take 'em where you can get 'em. ;)

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:32 pm 
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D-backs reach 1-year deals with 10 players to avoid arbitration

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 15, 2018 12:37 pm 
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So with all the arb signings except Shelby's coming in , and all but Ahmeds comings in under MLB trade rumors estimates, we have more clarify as to where we stand on payroll. But still lots of questions to be answered.

Please click through to this comment at AZ Snakepit, and also follow the links there to BB Ref and Roster Resource payroll info. You can also scroll up in that thread to see how that debate evolved, but the important part is the comment I linked.

Next 3-4 weeks are going to be quite interesting.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:53 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
So with all the arb signings except Shelby's coming in , and all but Ahmeds comings in under MLB trade rumors estimates, we have more clarify as to where we stand on payroll. But still lots of questions to be answered.

Please click through to this comment at AZ Snakepit, and also follow the links there to BB Ref and Roster Resource payroll info. You can also scroll up in that thread to see how that debate evolved, but the important part is the comment I linked.

Next 3-4 weeks are going to be quite interesting.


BR has the Diamondbacks listed at $116.5M right now. That includes Miller's projected $4.9M number from MLBTR. If they're going for an opening day payroll of $120M there isn't much left in the budget to make additions.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:13 pm 
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Did you click through ?

The AZ Snakepit comment includes links to both BB-Ref and Roster Resource and also gives detailed breakdown of how and why they differ.

(Roster Resource is at 122, which happens to be what Nick P. had in his spreadsheet.)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 6:50 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Did you click through ?

The AZ Snakepit comment includes links to both BB-Ref and Roster Resource and also gives detailed breakdown of how and why they differ.

(Roster Resource is at 122, which happens to be what Nick P. had in his spreadsheet.)



He already commented a couple times on the thread. He is one of Jim's admins/writers/whatever... The above poster is Micheal Mcdermott.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:30 pm 
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Justin wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Did you click through ?

The AZ Snakepit comment includes links to both BB-Ref and Roster Resource and also gives detailed breakdown of how and why they differ.

(Roster Resource is at 122, which happens to be what Nick P. had in his spreadsheet.)



He already commented a couple times on the thread. He is one of Jim's admins/writers/whatever... The above poster is Micheal Mcdermott.



I know who he is. His comments were made before the specific comment I linked to . The specific comment I linked to had the details he needs.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:39 pm 
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Where they are at right now is almost exactly 119.61 M

1.) 20 players already signed 114.03
(Note, I include the 4.7 M figure for Shelby Miller as 20th player, he gets either 4.7 or 4.9)

The above numbers are known, published and absolutely correct

2.) 5 Pre arb players to fill out 25 man roster. 2.85 M
League Minimum for 2018 is 545,000 but these 5 players will be tendered between 550,000 and 580,000, or in other words slightly above league minimum. I put in 580 for 4 of them and 550 for Murphy. We are literally only talking tens of thousands possible variance here for these 5 players. IOW the 2.85 M Estimate could not possibly be lower than 2.75 and definitely no higher than 2.95.

So the above brings you to 116.88, which is almost exactly what Baseball Reference has.

BUT......


3.) You have to include an estimate for all the callups from the 40 man roster during the season to fill in during the season. In fact the team will use anywhere from 45 to 50 players per year.

The way you estimate is as follows:

20 players x .25 of a season, x 545,000 = 2,725,000.

Adding that 2.73 M brings you too 119.61.

Now of course they could have extremely poor luck or extremely good luck with injuries, so the amount they have to set aside
for callups can vary. But it's between 2-4 Million any way you slice it.

See below for further details player by player.
Code:
Name   Salary
Zack Greinke   34.00
Yasmany Tomas   13.50
Paul Goldschmidt   11.10
Patrick Corbin   7.50
A.J. Pollock   7.75
Taijuan Walker   4.83
Jake Lamb   4.28
Jeff Mathis   2.00
Robbie Ray   3.95
Chris Owings   3.40
Daniel Descalso   2.00
David Peralta   3.30
Randall Delgado   2.25
Brad Boxberger   1.85
Chris Herrmann   1.30
Nick Ahmed   1.27
Andrew Chafin   1.20
T.J. McFarland   0.85
Shelby Miller   4.70
Yoshihisa Hirano   3.00
Archie Bradley   0.58
Brandon Drury   0.58
Ketel Marte   0.58
Zack Godley   0.58
John Ryan Murphy   0.55
20 x .25 x .545   2.73
   119.61


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 11:00 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Where they are at right now is almost exactly 119.61 M

1.) 20 players already signed 114.03
(Note, I include the 4.7 M figure for Shelby Miller as 20th player, he gets either 4.7 or 4.9)

The above numbers are known, published and absolutely correct

2.) 5 Pre arb players to fill out 25 man roster. 2.85 M
League Minimum for 2018 is 545,000 but these 5 players will be tendered between 550,000 and 580,000, or in other words slightly above league minimum. I put in 580 for 4 of them and 550 for Murphy. We are literally only talking tens of thousands possible variance here for these 5 players. IOW the 2.85 M Estimate could not possibly be lower than 2.75 and definitely no higher than 2.95.

So the above brings you to 116.88, which is almost exactly what Baseball Reference has.

BUT......


3.) You have to include an estimate for all the callups from the 40 man roster during the season to fill in during the season. In fact the team will use anywhere from 45 to 50 players per year.

The way you estimate is as follows:

20 players x .25 of a season, x 545,000 = 2,725,000.

Adding that 2.73 M brings you too 119.61.

Now of course they could have extremely poor luck or extremely good luck with injuries, so the amount they have to set aside
for callups can vary. But it's between 2-4 Million any way you slice it.

See below for further details player by player.
Code:
Name   Salary
Zack Greinke   34.00
Yasmany Tomas   13.50
Paul Goldschmidt   11.10
Patrick Corbin   7.50
A.J. Pollock   7.75
Taijuan Walker   4.83
Jake Lamb   4.28
Jeff Mathis   2.00
Robbie Ray   3.95
Chris Owings   3.40
Daniel Descalso   2.00
David Peralta   3.30
Randall Delgado   2.25
Brad Boxberger   1.85
Chris Herrmann   1.30
Nick Ahmed   1.27
Andrew Chafin   1.20
T.J. McFarland   0.85
Shelby Miller   4.70
Yoshihisa Hirano   3.00
Archie Bradley   0.58
Brandon Drury   0.58
Ketel Marte   0.58
Zack Godley   0.58
John Ryan Murphy   0.55
20 x .25 x .545   2.73
   119.61


Shoe- Just to clarify, aren't we talking payroll on Opening Day? If so, why would that factor in call ups that will likely happen, but possibly could not? Not disputing, just trying to understand. Thx.

Pending your answer, we're either at 116MM or 119MM, so not a huge deal variance, but significant nonetheless when we set the over at 140. Here's where I am on the bet. As I've contended, IF they were to add one of the 2 impact guys, I've felt they would substantially increase the payroll for one year. I wasn't necessarily tied to 140 or 145, I was just taking the current number of 115-120 and adding the JDM rumored number of 25MM. I WAS saying that they would not offload a big salary, such as Greinke's, that would nearly or totally offset the JDM number, to do this. I wasn't saying that they wouldn't maybe dump a guy or 2 making 2-3 million a year to save 5 or 6 million, if possible. Where I'm going with this.....

I'd be willing to take the over 140M IF they acquire JDM or Manny. Probably unlikely I win that one because it assumes that they don't even offload a less significant guy or 2 to save 5 or 6 million even, which I could easily see. What I would stipulate though is that we have a safe harbor area of 130MM-140MM payroll where we push. That way, I'm protected if they drop a guy or two to save 5 or 10 million bucks. I think this is fair because 130MM plus would still validate my original statement that they were willing to substantially increase the payroll without a big dump of a Greinke, or another big part, versus where I'm understanding you to be at, with them not moving payroll beyond 115-119. Sounds like Manny is a longshot anyway, but he's only making 17MM, so I'm pretty much screwed on the over if they acquire him, but could be correct on my original premise of a sizeable payroll bump, assuming they don't move a Corbin or decent salary to get him.

So.... assuming the current number is actually 119MM, here's what I'd propose...

IF JDM or Manny are added prior to Opening Day bet is active
I win over 140MM
Push at 130-139,999,999
Shoe wins at less than 130MM.

This is still a much better bet for you than me, but I opened my mouth and will step up and own it if you want the bet.

Let me know.


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