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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:15 pm 
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First things first:
Quote:
Shoe- Just to clarify, aren't we talking payroll on Opening Day? If so, why would that factor in call ups that will likely happen, but possibly could not? Not disputing, just trying to understand. Thx.


You are right, this is a mistake on my part.

The 116.88 number should be the correct starting point for opening day estimate as of right now. The team definitely budgets the extra few million in there, but we don't know exactly what that number is, and it won't start to accumulate as early as opening day unless there is an injury.

One thing that needs to be clarified: Lets say, player X making 10M end up on disabled list to open the season, and he is replaced on opening day 25 Man by a pre arb player at 550K. Obviously you still have to count the 10 M as part of opening day payroll even though player x is not on opening day roster. Thats to your advantage, otherwise I could get you on a technicality. :lol:

Anyway, you started off at 145K, I backed it down to 140, and based on above if you want to do a straight 137M over/under, I'll do that.

But thats as low as I will go. No buffers.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:56 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
First things first:
Quote:
Shoe- Just to clarify, aren't we talking payroll on Opening Day? If so, why would that factor in call ups that will likely happen, but possibly could not? Not disputing, just trying to understand. Thx.


You are right, this is a mistake on my part.

The 116.88 number should be the correct starting point for opening day estimate as of right now. The team definitely budgets the extra few million in there, but we don't know exactly what that number is, and it won't start to accumulate as early as opening day unless there is an injury.

One thing that needs to be clarified: Lets say, player X making 10M end up on disabled list to open the season, and he is replaced on opening day 25 Man by a pre arb player at 550K. Obviously you still have to count the 10 M as part of opening day payroll even though player x is not on opening day roster. Thats to your advantage, otherwise I could get you on a technicality. :lol:

Anyway, you started off at 145K, I backed it down to 140, and based on above if you want to do a straight 137M over/under, I'll do that.

But thats as low as I will go. No buffers.


I just can't make a bet at 137MM. If the Dbacks came in at 136MM, then what I've been saying all along would be essentially accurate within a slim margin of error, but I'd still lose 500 bucks. I'd be willing to take the higher number as over for the win if we agreed that 130-140 would be a push, but 137 would assume 116 plus 22-25MM for JDM and virtually no offsetting moves. That's not leaving any margin for error. I wouldn't blame them for shedding a few million bucks if they got JDM, and that wouldn't be diverting from my previous hypothesis of not completely offsetting any deal by having to move a Greinke, or even an AJ/ Corbin type. It was my understanding that you thought there would be little to no flexibility upward from 116MM, meaning that under your terms I'd be giving you 20MM in cushion, but I'd only be getting 8MM off the 145MM number. Can't do that. Will be anxious to see what happens in the next 45 days though! Have a great weekend.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:46 pm 
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It would surprise greatly if they went to 125 or even 130. But I wouldn't make a $500 bet on it.

My contention has been all along that there is no room to sign JD unless they move some of the arb eligible guys to make room.

They would probably have to get him to defer some money as well.

Anyway, You started at 145, I backed it down 8M for you, but no need to go any further on my part.

It's ok if we don't bet.

What we WILL have to do though is go to a game together this year. The loser pays for the beer. Won't quite cost you $500, (although I can't promise it won't be close haha)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:59 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
What we WILL have to do though is go to a game together this year. The loser pays for the beer. Won't quite cost you $500, (although I can't promise it won't be close haha)


Done deal!


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 10:08 am 
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Boston offer to JDM now 5 and 125. That would seem to rule the 1 year deal out as I don't see any way AZ goes up to 30 or higher for a year. Now seems like it's a negotiation for JDM to push Boston as high as possible and settle there.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:35 am 
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I think the Boston offer was always 5/125. I think the 5/100 number was bad reporting in the first place.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:28 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
I think the Boston offer was always 5/125. I think the 5/100 number was bad reporting in the first place.


Not surprised with 5/$125M considering Cespedes got 3/$75M (same per year) with an opt out after the first year after 2015.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:41 pm 
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Here's a fun article about payroll from 2014:
Quote:
With nine home dates remaining, the Diamondbacks are on pace to draw a franchise-low 2,029,751 in attendance this season, and the financial hit from that will affect next year's payroll. Hall expects it to drop to the $100 million range after beginning this season at a franchise record of around $112 million.

"The formula that really works for major-league teams is to try and keep your payroll at about half of your revenues," Hall said. "For us, that's what we're looking at. We're going to be budgeting right around $100 million. If we think we can spend more, we're going to."

Hall's repeated that rough formula more than once over the years.* The D-backs went ahead and cut their opening day payroll for 2015 to ~$88 million per Cot's. Funny how the pitch this entire offseason has been that there's no increase coming, despite the increase in revenue.

*That so-called $112 million record was not entirely accurate. That was their opening day payroll, but they slashed it over the summer by trading McCarthy, Parra, and Prado.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 5:43 pm 
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Looks like this hasn't been brought up yet, and changes the color of our ceiling a little bit. We could be looking at $125 million by opening day. If Hazen can convince KK to give just a bit more to get J.D....

https://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/ ... 303054002/

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:37 pm 
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Yup Just kind of waiting to see hwat happens next few weeks. But Derek Hall may have been sand bagging us


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:28 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Yup Just kind of waiting to see hwat happens next few weeks. But Derek Hall may have been sand bagging us


I guess I never tend to much too much stock into what someone says in a one-off conversation with a guy like Piecoro. Derrick is smart enough to not publicly overpromise even when knowing that exceeding it is possible and likely, and will then be viewed as a positive. Had he come out and said the opposite, and either delivered or not, it would've been a nothing or a negative. He's a marketing guy so I assume he gets these things. I always tend to land in the area of reason. This year, coming off of a good year, is different than other times that have been compared to. I don't expect Hazen to go long on any deals, but I do believe they see the short window with guys on the books and want to give a good effort to maximize it. I do continue to believe that they'd be open to go significantly higher on payroll for shorter 1-2 year deals that allow a reset when Goldy, AJ, Corbin etc.. are all up.

Again, if they're tied to 115MM, they can always balance it over a few years, and it will organically happen anyway when guys come off the books regardless. I think Hazen prefers a rebuild and will maintain long term flexibility. I think Ken is impulsive and would consider a big longer term signing, which everyone knows will lead to bad things, but I think they compromise on shorter deals and 1-2 year window, then Hazen gets to rebuild and KK get one last shot at a world series chase.

Plus there is the one time 50MM payment that I could see, at minimum, used to finance a short term payroll increase that they can balance later and pocket the 50MM if they choose to. I think they would sing JDM to a 1-2 year deal with minimal or no offset. If they can't do that, I'm thinking they do something in the outfield, maybe a CarGo type signing. Either way, I'm thinking they go over 130MM to start the year even without signing JDM. Doubt they go into it with just Tomas.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:17 am 
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It would be tough to fit JDM in even if payroll went to $125-$130 MM without shedding at least about $15-$20 MM in payroll


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:04 pm 
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David B wrote:
It would be tough to fit JDM in even if payroll went to $125-$130 MM without shedding at least about $15-$20 MM in payroll


They're at 120 now. I think, as I've always thought, they'd go to 140+ for JDM, but only on a 1 year deal. I think if they don't get JDM, they get someone, like a CarGo type, that will cost about another 8-10, in lieu of JDM. I think they're going to be closer to 130 than 120, even without JDM. I just don't see them going into the year all-in with Tomas. I feel like they're going to try to solidify the outfield in some way. If they get JDM, I think they go 140+, just for this year, then balance it out in a future year heading back toward 100.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:02 pm 
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If it does happen you can come on here and gloat all you want, but I'll believe it when I see it.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 6:13 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Yup Just kind of waiting to see hwat happens next few weeks. But Derek Hall may have been sand bagging us

I think the absolute best-case scenario is they start the season with the team intact and see what happens. If they're not a WC team by the trade deadline, then they Marlins it.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 8:25 pm 
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As long as they are not trading away prospects, or signing any more veterans to long term expensive contract they can't really afford, I'm fine.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:26 pm 
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I updated my Payroll Spread sheet today and broke things down HERE. Click through for valuable detail.

Summary:

We know for certain that current payroll sits at 121M

We know for certain they need to budget for additional players. Low end would be 4M, high end 6M

I have not budgeted performance bonuses, so without the Performance bonuses, the team payroll for 2018 should be estimated at 125-127 M

Whether they have budgeted any mid season "go for it money", or whether they will end up selling off players is of course unknown.

And of course whether or not they trade a player or two to bring down the payroll, or to make room for an outfield addition, or if they hold on to everyone and go sign JD and blow WAY past everything projected, we just don't know. Stay tuned !!


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:00 pm 
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While there's still time for them to shed payroll before Opening Day, I'd like to believe that they decided to go for it (to an extent) this year. Between the buyer's market and revenue bumps, extra money was there. The D-backs have now brought in credible players to address the holes at C, OF, and RP. Hopefully, they don't sacrifice their SP depth to save cash. Greinke hasn't exactly been great down the stretch the last couple of years, so it'd be nice to see them lighten his workload if possible. On top of that, the rest of the rotation all missed time.


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