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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:54 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
I'm actually wondering if we should trade him.


Who takes over at 3B then? Don't see anyone coming through the system to replace him.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:59 am 
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I was wondering that, too but just didn't say anything.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:27 am 
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4U2NV wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
I'm actually wondering if we should trade him.


Who takes over at 3B then? Don't see anyone coming through the system to replace him.


They can move Drury to 3rd and get another second baseman

It's all interlinked. Obviously if they trade Lamb and still want to have an offense that can compete they will need a left handed power bat somewhere in the lineup. So there would be other roster construction issues and trades to consider.

It needs to be acknowledged that Lamb has 114 OPS+ last year and a 115 OPS+ this year. (his wRC+ at FG is exactly the same last two years as well, 114/115) He could get hot over the final few weeks and move the needle perhaps on his 2017 stat line and OPS+, but it's not really going to impact much how he is projected going forward.

In fact for the rest of season projections, Lamb is projected to have a 105 wRC+ on a 253/345/475 batting line.

It seems like some of you perceive Lamb as a 120-125 OPS+ hitter already when through 1676 career PA he has been a 106 OPS+ hitter and 114 OPS+ over the last two seasons.

Now age 27 is the typical "peak" season historically. Probably the best thing to do is hope he has a peak season around 120-125 OPS+ next year and then look to trade him after 2018, as he heads into Arb 2. If he can pull off a 120-125 OPS+ next year and has two years of control remaining, he would be a PRIME trade chip.

And if he blows up and becomes a 130 OPS+ hitter or even higher, and it looks sustainable, then no problem, you STILL have 2 years of control and the opportunity to extend him if you want to.

Bottom line: If some team comes to me and is chasing for Jake Lamb in a trade, I would at least throw out a "reach" counter offer and see what I could get in return. He definitely isn't in the untouchable category. BUT due to his current level of production, even without improvement, and where he is in the arb process, he is still a net positive asset for at least the next year or two. But a wise GM, which we have, is always looking to maximize assets.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:49 am 
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One point I should also add....

There is always the possibility this team gets into the NLCS or even the World Series, in which case the mentality in the front office might change significantly. They may look at it like they need to keep the team mostly intact and make another run at it in 2018.

But the pitching is almost certain to regress next year, (just very unlikely to reproduce 130 Team ERA+ !!) and the run scoring has been buttressed by overall very good numbers in situational

The team is 4th in the NL in runs scored and 6th in "raw" unadjusted OPS. But they are 10th in adjusted OPS+ and 2 points below league average.

They have been great on the bases and at avoiding DP's, and despite that period of time when it seemed they couldn't buy a hit w/RISP they are still 7th in BA W/RISP and 3rd in OPS W/ RISP

They are 7th in Late and Close OPS and 4th in High leverage OPS.

(Above all NL ranks, among 15 teams)

So the combination of somewhat above average situational hitting, (for the entire season) and good baserunning and DP avoidance has helped them score more runs than otherwise would be expected off of their "base" performance in avoiding outs and hitting and hitting for power.

Is all of that sustainable ? Dunno. Hard to say. Certainly some of it is the intangibles of approach, chemistry, leadership, coaching, attitude, etc. Maybe ALL of it is those things. But here is the thing that most people don't truly understand: While those things are REAL and definitely DO impact the W/L column, they are NOT STATIC. It's a long season, and season to season, the HUMAN BEINGS playing the game will have inconsistencies in their "makeup" and intangibles, and are influenced by outside forces that are unpredictable.

So bottom line: They gotta keep trying to improve the roster if they want to maintain competitiveness. Standing pat won't achieve that. Over dependence on moments and intangibles won't achieve that. They will need to pony up a bit more money on top of making good trades and striving to maintain the intangibles that are helping them so much now.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:32 pm 
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MLB Trade Rumors projected arbitration salaries.

Patrick Corbin (5.105) – $8.3MM
Randall Delgado (5.100) – $2.5MM
A.J. Pollock (5.052) – $8.5MM
Shelby Miller (4.166) – $4.9MM
J.J. Hoover (4.153) – $1.6MM
Chris Owings (4.027) – $3.8MM
Chris Herrmann (4.001) – $1.4MM
T.J. McFarland (3.165) – $1.0MM
Taijuan Walker (3.142) – $5.0MM
David Peralta (3.120) – $3.8MM
Nick Ahmed (3.054) – $1.1MM
Jake Lamb (3.053) – $4.7MM
Andrew Chafin (3.020) – $1.2MM
Robbie Ray (3.007) – $4.2MM


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:57 pm 
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I was just coming here to post these as well. The MLB Trade Rumors estimates total about 12M more than what I had. There are 7-8 players within just a couple hundred thousand of my estimates, but there are 4 guys they estimate 2-3M or more higher than I did.

If Trade rumors is correct and Arb costs are 52M instead of 40M, then D Backs are REALLY screwed. They would be almost up to 120M without resigning Descalso or Iannetta, let alone JD Martinez.

Don't forget to use right scroll bar. Ranked by biggest difference in the estimates.

Code:
Player       Shoe    TR   TR-Shoe
Lamb         1.80   4.70   2.90
Ray          1.80   4.20   2.40
Corbin       6.00   8.30   2.30
Peralta      1.75   3.80   2.05
Walker       3.50   5.00   1.50
Owings       3.30   4.03   0.73
Delgado      2.30   2.50   0.20
Chaffin      1.00   1.20   0.20
Hoover       1.50   1.60   0.10
McFarland    0.90   1.00   0.10
Miller       4.90   4.90   0.00
Herrmmann    1.50   1.40   -0.10
Pollock      8.75   8.50   -0.25
Ahmed        1.50   1.10   -0.40
            40.50   52.23   11.73

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:51 pm 
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I wonder what ownership's excuse will be for not tangibly raising payroll on a playoff team.

Maybe the unexpected success this year will force ownership's hand (fat chance, I know), lest they "turn their back" on the team and community by not helping this contending team to move forward.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 6:47 pm 
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Ryan wrote:
I wonder what ownership's excuse will be for not tangibly raising payroll on a playoff team.

Maybe the unexpected success this year will force ownership's hand (fat chance, I know), lest they "turn their back" on the team and community by not helping this contending team to move forward.


I think this is as good as it's going to get. If they are out after the NLDS, I think it's time to start a rebuild of sorts. Since they won't sign JD, I would try to work a trade for Christian Yelich. Tomas' contract would give the Marlins $2M in salary relief, in addition to another player or two (Barrett, Grier, Leyba for example). Perhaps Tomas can be somewhat of a draw for the Cuban community in S. Fla.

Hopefully, Greinke has a great game 3 of NLDS so that some team(s) may see some value their, especially if the Dbacks will eat about 40-50% of his remaining contract.

Dreaming??? Probably.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:10 am 
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Tomas for Yelich ? I wish.

If Hazen could pull that off he would probably be outed as a hypnotist

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:29 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Tomas for Yelich ? I wish.

If Hazen could pull that off he would probably be outed as a hypnotist


Or wondering how much more of that "Love potion #9" he still has left.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 3:30 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Tomas for Yelich ? I wish.

If Hazen could pull that off he would probably be outed as a hypnotist


The Dbacks would have to throw in two or three prospects or cheap controllable players: Drury/Barrett/Brito for example.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:35 am 
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Barret and Brito suck

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 pm 
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we can't get rid of brito, otherwise I'd have to change my av/sig!

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:30 pm 
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This is more or less their last chance to flip some assets to reload the farm system. Corbin, Goldshmidt, Greinke, Peralta, and Pollock all rebuilt value this year.

Since they aren't going to rebuild, I'd like to see them try to reshape the position players as a defense-first bunch. The humidor is likely to have unintended consequences and it's probably not a great idea to ink any big position player contracts until the organization understands its full impact. If they're on the fence with a guy like Lamb, they should trade him now because the humidor is unlikely to raise his stock. Likewise, Goldschmidt's home/road splits are becoming increasingly pronounced as he relies more on Chase to bolster his numbers compared to when he was at his peak a few years ago. If they're willing to trade him in the event that the team implodes in 2018, they should just do it now. Ha.

In the meantime, they have a bunch of starters and one impact reliever. Go all-in with pitching and defense.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 2:50 pm 
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I'm sure they feel like they just got back the good will and support of the fans in the State.

No way they rebuild. But it remains to be seen what the payroll budget is.

Not knowing the self imposed limits KK will put on the Organization this year, it's impossible to come up with a game plan.

I mean, if he says Payroll must stay at 100 M, then by all means blow it up.

If he is willing to go to 120-130, then they should go for it again

If he is only willing to go to 110, thats half pregnant. Would be better off blowing it up, saving the money for when they are ready again.

But really until we know the financial plan, assuming we ever actually do get to know that with any degree of accuracy, then we are just spittin into the wind.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:27 pm 
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Can this team even make the WC next season? It seems to me that teams like the Rockies and Brewers will have money to spend, while the Dbacks are saddled with Greinke, a #2 SP at best. I can see the Dodgers winning the West next season without much difficulty, especially if they lock up Darvish and Buehler gets called up the second half.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:56 pm 
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Sure, but more likely to be down to the wire like how the Rockies got in.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:09 pm 
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http://arizonasports.com/story/1273136/ ... ncing-act/

Ken Kendrick today said the team already had a meeting Tuesday and there will be a plan formulated over the next week or two in regards to offseason plans, such as keeping Martinez in. He re-affirmed the team’s position on pursuing J.D. Martinez and called the economics of doing so “a balancing act.”

Kendrick did not shoot down the notion of trading Greinke, and instead was leaving anything on the table in regards to the decision makers he works with on the team.

“What we owe to the benefit of the organization is a complete look at the entire roster and the gives and takes of if we move this guy what would the replacement potentially look like and it’s a little bit like a chess game,” Kendrick said.

Greinke is slated to make at least $34 million each of the next four seasons. The magnitude of Greinke’s deal will make it more difficult for the team to navigate bringing back Martinez and re-signing other key players like Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock. Yasmany Tomas’ contract also plays a big role in the D-backs’ flexibility. Tomas’ $68 million contract escalates from $13.5 million a season in 2018 all the way up to $17 million in 2020.

“One of the best things I can say about the situation is I think we have some master chess players making these decisions,” Kendrick said. “At the end, they’ll come back to me and say ‘Ken, we think we should do the following here’s why, etc. etc.’ but I have a lot of faith in this young management team and they are going to have a lot of freedom to do what they think is smart.”

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- Rocky Balboa on the 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks, those comeback kids


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 10:03 pm 
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So not a word about upping payroll ?

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:05 am 
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Greinke is owed $140.5M if traded. Send him packing with $80-90M. That would be roughly $12.5-15M per season for a #2 SP, which in today's market is probably reasonable. The Dbacks portion would be, in part, the $62.5 deferred salary. That would give the Dbacks $50+M in salary relief.

Send Tomas and Drury to the Marlin for Yelich, Gordon, and Suzuki + $10M. :D


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