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 Post subject: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:54 pm 
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I was going to hold off posting about 2018 payroll, but with all the talk today about signing JD Martinez after the season, I figured I better throw it up there. Here is what I have right now.

Guaranteed Contracts + Arbitration Estimates + Pre Arb player expenses total roughly 106,000,000. (See bottom table for details with my estimates)

However there are 8 guys turning Free Agent at the end of the year . They are unlikely to retain all 8, but Martinez, Iannetta and Descalso all play significant roles. (And Rodney too of course)

Rosales, Blanco, Hernandez and De La Rosa can be replaced fairly easily with pre arb talent out of the system. Rodney too perhaps, depending on how Jimmy Sherfy develops and if Bradley keeps doing what he's doing. But Iannetta is having a bounceback year and he probably gets a bump, we are thin at catcher in the system, and I think they keep him. Descalso actually has an option, but I'm not sure how much, so I just stuck him in the FA list, but I'm pretty sure they keep him too.

So with 106 M as your starting point, and figure at least 4-5M to retain Iannetta and Descalso, you are at 110M Before you try to sign JD Martinez, which seems reasonable that KK could go there. BUT, Kendrick would need to agree to take the payroll up to about 130,000,000 to keep the team intact AND sign JD Martinez. I don't see him doing THAT.

He could get creative with more deferrals, which would be funny, all things considered. Or they could trade 2 or 3 of the arb 3 guys, such as Pollock, Corbin, & Delgado to make payroll room. But you better be getting back major league ready pre arb players in those deals, especially a Center Fielder !

Nothing is impossible. But I'm pretty confident that the correct starting point is 110,000,000 Million, give or take 2M . So those are your parameters to consider when trying to guess what the team will do.

And NO pie in the sky proposals about getting Tomas' contract off the books. It can't/won't happen. He may not be on the roster, but they have to pay that money no matter what.

Code:
Name   Est Cost
J.D. Martinez     20,000,000
Fernando Rodney    4,000,000
Chris Iannetta     3,000,000
Daniel Descalso    2,000,000
Adam Rosales       2,000,000
Gregor Blanco      2,000,000
David Hernandez    2,000,000
Jorge De La Rosa   1,500,000


Code:
Name   2018   Status
Total W/O FA's   106,000,000   Guaranteed
Zack Greinke   34,000,000   Guaranteed
Yasmany Tomas   13,500,000   Guaranteed
Paul Goldschmidt   11,100,000   Guaranteed
Jeff Mathis   2,000,000   Guaranteed
A.J. Pollock   8,750,000   Arb 3
Patrick Corbin   6,000,000   Arb 3
Shelby Miller   4,900,000   Arb 3
Randall Delgado   2,300,000   Arb 3
Chris Owings   3,300,000   Arb 2
Taijuan Walker   3,500,000   Arb 2
Jake Lamb   1,800,000   Arb 1
Robbie Ray   1,800,000   Arb 1
David Peralta   1,750,000   Arb 1
Chris Herrmann   1,500,000   Arb 1
J.J. Hoover   1,500,000   Arb 1
Nick Ahmed   1,500,000   Arb 1
Andrew Chafin   1,000,000   Arb 1
T.J. McFarland   900,000   Arb 1
Brandon Drury   580,000   Pre Arb
Archie Bradley   580,000   Pre Arb
Zack Godley   580,000   Pre Arb
Ketel Marte   580,000   Pre Arb
Jake Barrett   580,000   Pre Arb
Jimmy Sherfy   550,000   Pre Arb
Socrates Brito   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Steve Hathaway   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
John Ryan Murphy   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Kristopher Negron   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Silvino Bracho   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Rey Fuentes   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Braden Shipley   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
Jeremy Hazelbaker   250,000   Pre Arb-Part time MLB
   106,550,000   

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:00 pm 
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they have to cut bait on Herrmann this offseason, right? There's 1.5 off the books!

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:12 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
And NO pie in the sky proposals about getting Tomas' contract off the books. It can't/won't happen. He may not be on the roster, but they have to pay that money no matter what.

Dave Stewart's six-year $68.5 million legacy

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:48 pm 
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Here is the payroll link from B-Ref too. Looking at the projections for 2019 and 2020 (138 million and 161 million) that is going to make it even more difficult to do some of these things.

wedge wrote:
they have to cut bait on Herrmann this offseason, right? There's 1.5 off the books!


He has pictures of Kendrick doing inappropriate things while looking at the Honus Wagner card, we're stuck with him

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Last edited by JoeCB91 on Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 5:55 pm 
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Wow, I thought levski came back for a second :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 6:32 pm 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
Here is the payroll link from B-Ref too. Looking at the projections for 2019 and 2020 (138 million and 161 million) that is going to make it even more difficult to do some of these things.

wedge wrote:
they have to cut bait on Herrmann this offseason, right? There's 1.5 off the books!


He has pictures of Kendrick doing inappropriate things while looking at the Honus Wagner card, we're stuck with him


Their arb estimates are too high. Thats why I did my own

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 6:55 am 
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If the Dbacks make it to the WS, couldn't some of the additional revenue be applied to 2018 payroll?


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:25 am 
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dbackfanron wrote:
If the Dbacks make it to the WS, couldn't some of the additional revenue be applied to 2018 payroll?


Yes, I think they would, but I don't have a handle on how much extra revenue they actually get.

Most of the playoff revenue goes to a league pool until you get really deep. At least thats how they used to do it. So a Wild Card win and a loss in the divisional series for example, wouldn't really give them that much money.

But a trip to the world series would seemingly add at least 10M to what they will feel comfortable shelling out.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:28 am 
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Note they could also non tender Shelby Miller and save 4-5 Million.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:44 am 
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I definitely want to move Corbin, Miller, and Pollock this offseason. All will be FA soon and have too much downside relative to their upside, particularly at what they'll cost. Corbin's been very hittable these last three years. Pollock hasn't been an impact player on the field since 2015 and is a good bet to spend most of 2018 in hospital waiting rooms. Miller was never anything special.

I'd also like them to explore the market for Peralta. He has value now, but he's about to start making money and isn't getting any better.

Not a fan of re-signing Martinez, either. The guy's going to be 30 next year and has played >150 games once.

It's probably about time to start locking up guys like Lamb and Ray while the team has most of the leverage.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 11:01 am 
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I think that if they make it deep into the playoffs (NLCS) the current roster will not see many changes outside of the FA. I give most of the current group one more year.

I'm not convinced I want to spend a lot of money on Lamb. Can't hit LHP and defense is mediocre.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:10 pm 
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A few points:

1.) Of course the team is not just looking one year out, and one area my brief analysis above fails to do is take into account the increases in Guaranteed money in 2019, which goes up approx 4 million and arb costs go up even higher as there are many more guys graduating to ARB 1 and ARB 2, (10 in total).

So certainly team is taking that into account

2.) For now the team still needs the balance of Lamb's left handed bat and he is certainly worth more than his impending arbitration costs, but it is a legit question to wonder if an extension is wise for him.

The lefty issues and the defense issues are pretty big dents in his value. He's lost over 2 wins with the glove alone over the last two seasons. Sample size no longer small on the defense.

So right now Lamb is a 2 WIN player, and without improvement vs. lefties or with the glove, is not likely to be worth more than 3 WAR in even his best season. Thats not really extension material.

You either keep him for at least one more year, (arb 1 season) and then decide to trade him or let his arb year ride, or you trade him now and sell high. But they need a left handed power bat during this window of contention.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:32 pm 
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Cargo should be available on a one year deal at a reasonable cost. He needs to build up some value for a longer term deal (3 yr) after 2018. He could platoon with Tomas and maybe even AJ. I'm assuming of course that JD is not resigned.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 12:45 pm 
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You still beating the Cargo drum ? LOL

OPS+ since his age 28 season

28: 88 OPS+
29: 116 OPS+
30: 112 OPS+
31: 69 OPS+

4 yr avg 100 OPS+

Even during his bounceback years at age 29-30, he wasn't nearly as good as you probably thought he was. You need to completely ignore the non park adjusted rate stats. They don't mean anything. Even in his best 2 seasons out of his last 4, he was just a bit above league average hitter, and with two really down seasons.

This year his bat has visibly slowed. If he can't "rebuild value" playing his home games in Coors field, he's not gonna do it.

Complete and total pass on Cargo

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:00 pm 
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Maybe playing his home games at a lower altitude and smaller field will rejuvenate him to some extent. :) The affordable FA OF options don't appear to me to be that great. Cargo seems like the best option, depending on the deal that can be worked out. I know it's a gamble on him having somewhat of a bounceback year. I would prefer signing JD long term and also bringing back Blanco.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:08 pm 
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Interesting to note that JD and J UP are the two youngest outfield free agent bats at age 30. (I'm assuming J UP opts out, but thats not certain of course)

Well Ben Revere is 30 too. :lol: :lol:

list

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 1:15 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
A few points:

1.) Of course the team is not just looking one year out, and one area my brief analysis above fails to do is take into account the increases in Guaranteed money in 2019, which goes up approx 4 million and arb costs go up even higher as there are many more guys graduating to ARB 1 and ARB 2, (10 in total).

So certainly team is taking that into account

2.) For now the team still needs the balance of Lamb's left handed bat and he is certainly worth more than his impending arbitration costs, but it is a legit question to wonder if an extension is wise for him.

The lefty issues and the defense issues are pretty big dents in his value. He's lost over 2 wins with the glove alone over the last two seasons. Sample size no longer small on the defense.

So right now Lamb is a 2 WIN player, and without improvement vs. lefties or with the glove, is not likely to be worth more than 3 WAR in even his best season. Thats not really extension material.

You either keep him for at least one more year, (arb 1 season) and then decide to trade him or let his arb year ride, or you trade him now and sell high. But they need a left handed power bat during this window of contention.

FWIW, I currently look at Lamb as a flawed, useful player whose 20s could be bought for cheap now. Given how bad he's been against LHP, I think he has upside insofar as he doesn't need to hit them "well" in order to move the needle on his value and become an expensive arb case. I'd gamble that a 26-year-old guy who can hit RHP this much can reasonably improve further against LHP. At the end of the day, his MLB career against LHP still consists of just 336 PA and he's demonstrated that he can improve as a hitter against MLB pitching, e.g. more power in '16, more walks in '17.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Strebor wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
A few points:

1.) Of course the team is not just looking one year out, and one area my brief analysis above fails to do is take into account the increases in Guaranteed money in 2019, which goes up approx 4 million and arb costs go up even higher as there are many more guys graduating to ARB 1 and ARB 2, (10 in total).

So certainly team is taking that into account

2.) For now the team still needs the balance of Lamb's left handed bat and he is certainly worth more than his impending arbitration costs, but it is a legit question to wonder if an extension is wise for him.

The lefty issues and the defense issues are pretty big dents in his value. He's lost over 2 wins with the glove alone over the last two seasons. Sample size no longer small on the defense.

So right now Lamb is a 2 WIN player, and without improvement vs. lefties or with the glove, is not likely to be worth more than 3 WAR in even his best season. Thats not really extension material.

You either keep him for at least one more year, (arb 1 season) and then decide to trade him or let his arb year ride, or you trade him now and sell high. But they need a left handed power bat during this window of contention.

FWIW, I currently look at Lamb as a flawed, useful player whose 20s could be bought for cheap now. Given how bad he's been against LHP, I think he has upside insofar as he doesn't need to hit them "well" in order to move the needle on his value and become an expensive arb case. I'd gamble that a 26-year-old guy who can hit RHP this much can reasonably improve further against LHP. At the end of the day, his MLB career against LHP still consists of just 336 PA and he's demonstrated that he can improve as a hitter against MLB pitching, e.g. more power in '16, more walks in '17.



It's a coin flip at this point whether vs. lefties he makes improvements like Mike Moustakas, or continues to flounder, like Ike Davis

report link

At this point you need to be specific. How much do you want to pay him and for how long ? Are you extending Goldy ? If not, extending Lamb becomes a little more of a possibility if you can slide him over to first base.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:17 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
It's a coin flip at this point whether vs. lefties he makes improvements like Mike Moustakas, or continues to flounder, like Ike Davis

report link

At this point you need to be specific. How much do you want to pay him and for how long ? Are you extending Goldy ? If not, extending Lamb becomes a little more of a possibility if you can slide him over to first base.

Heh, I'll tap out. I don't ultimately care if Kendrick can potentially save a couple million bucks by buying out Lamb rather than going year-to-year in arb.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 Payroll
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:17 pm 
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I'm actually wondering if we should trade him.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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