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 Post subject: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 6:50 am 
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D Backs #1 in MLB in Home BA and OPS http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/rpkqS

D Backs #30 in MLB in Road BA and OPS http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/zGbdO

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:45 am 
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Damn thats a serious split.

How far you think those home numbers drop once the humidor is up and running? :?


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:50 am 
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We are all wondering that.

The D backs also have the best ballpark adjusted ERA+ in MLB and the best Road ERA period.

So for right now, this season, it may not seem like the humidor is the right answer, or even that team is asking the right question.

But long term, anything that reduces wear and tear on OUR pitchers is a good thing. The hitters will have to learn to adapt.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 04, 2017 8:59 am 
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The table linked HERE and presented below show clearly where the biggest upgrade is possible for this team on the position player front. Yasmany Tomas continues to be a net negative player and is just not hitting enough right now to compensate for his very poor defense. So thats where upgrade is needed the most.

The question becomes will that upgrade come from Tomas himself, or will it need to come from elsewhere.

Last year Tomas only had two bad months at the plate, and 4 pretty good ones. This year Tomas had a good April, like last year, and a bad May, like last year. June not off to a good start, but maybe coming home will help him.

In any case, he needs to hit A LOT more not to be a liability. So position player wise, this is where the biggest upgrade opportunity appears to be.

Fingers crossed.

















RkTotalAll PSPRPNon-PC1B2B3BSSLFCFRFOF (All)DHPH
1WSN9.0COL6.2STL5.2LAD2.2CIN6.2LAD1.4ARI2.0LAD0.6COL1.9CIN2.3NYM1.4COL0.8WSN1.7MIA2.4CIN0.1MIL0.2
2LAD8.2ARI5.8ARI4.8COL1.7WSN4.7SFG1.0WSN1.8CHC0.5WSN1.8LAD0.8MIA1.2MIA0.7ARI0.8WSN2.0SFG0.1LAD0.2
3ARI7.6LAD4.4WSN4.7ARI1.3LAD3.8ATL0.8ATL1.6PHI0.4LAD1.8CHC0.7PHI0.6WSN0.4CHC0.7NYM1.2MIA0.1NYM0.0
4COL5.5WSN4.3COL4.5PIT1.3MIA3.4MIL0.8CIN1.5STL0.2CIN1.7ARI0.6CIN0.5ATL0.3MIA0.5CIN0.4WSN0.0WSN-0.1
5STL3.0STL4.2LAD1.8SFG0.8CHC2.6CIN0.5MIA1.0MIA0.2CHC1.3MIL0.4LAD0.5CHC0.0MIL0.2PHI-0.4STL0.0ARI-0.1
6MIL2.8SFG2.6SFG1.7CHC0.5MIL2.2PIT0.5MIL0.8COL0.0STL1.2COL0.2MIL0.0NYM-0.1CIN0.1LAD-0.4SDP0.0CIN-0.1
7CHC0.9PIT1.8MIL0.7SDP-0.2ARI1.8CHC0.4CHC0.6ARI-0.1ARI1.0WSN0.1WSN-0.1SDP-0.1NYM-0.1ATL-0.5PIT0.0CHC-0.1
8CIN0.5MIL0.6PIT0.6MIL-0.3NYM-0.5MIA0.1NYM0.5WSN-0.1MIL1.0MIA0.1ATL-0.2CIN-0.2LAD-0.3MIL-0.6PHI0.0PHI-0.2
9MIA-0.7PHI-1.3PHI-1.3ATL-0.3COL-0.7PHI0.0SFG0.4NYM-0.1PIT0.7PIT-0.3STL-0.3ARI-0.3PHI-0.5ARI-0.7NYM0.0STL-0.2
10PIT-2.2SDP-1.5SDP-1.6PHI-0.4STL-1.2NYM-0.1STL-0.1SFG-0.2MIA0.0SFG-0.4PIT-0.3STL-0.4STL-0.5CHC-0.7MIL0.0COL-0.5
11NYM-3.2CHC-1.7NYM-1.7CIN-0.8ATL-1.4COL-0.4SDP-0.3CIN-0.2SDP-0.1PHI-0.6COL-1.0PHI-0.5ATL-0.6STL-1.2LAD0.0MIA-0.5
12ATL-3.9ATL-2.5ATL-1.8WSN-1.0PHI-3.4STL-0.4COL-0.3MIL-0.4NYM-0.7STL-0.7SDP-1.0LAD-0.6SDP-0.7COL-1.6COL0.0ATL-0.6
13SFG-4.5NYM-2.7CHC-2.1MIA-1.5PIT-4.0WSN-0.8LAD-0.6PIT-0.4ATL-1.3SDP-0.9ARI-1.2MIL-0.8PIT-1.2SDP-1.8ATL0.0SDP-0.7
14PHI-4.7MIA-4.1MIA-2.5STL-1.5SDP-5.7ARI-0.9PIT-0.7ATL-0.5SFG-1.4ATL-0.9CHC-1.4PIT-1.4COL-1.4PIT-2.9ARI0.0PIT-0.9
15SDP-7.2CIN-5.7CIN-4.6NYM-1.7SFG-7.1SDP-1.0PHI-1.1SDP-0.9PHI-1.5NYM-1.3SFG-1.8SFG-1.9SFG-1.5SFG-5.2CHC-0.1SFG-1.4
AVG0.70.70.60.00.00.10.5-0.10.50.0-0.2-0.3-0.2-0.70.0-0.3



Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/4/2017.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 4:09 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
The table linked HERE and presented below show clearly where the biggest upgrade is possible for this team on the position player front. Yasmany Tomas continues to be a net negative player and is just not hitting enough right now to compensate for his very poor defense. So thats where upgrade is needed the most.

The question becomes will that upgrade come from Tomas himself, or will it need to come from elsewhere.

Last year Tomas only had two bad months at the plate, and 4 pretty good ones. This year Tomas had a good April, like last year, and a bad May, like last year. June not off to a good start, but maybe coming home will help him.

In any case, he needs to hit A LOT more not to be a liability. So position player wise, this is where the biggest upgrade opportunity appears to be.

Fingers crossed.

***********************************
Probably the price of not spending enough time in the minors when he was signed. Easy to do then, still possible but more difficult and unlikely now, in spite of him being a short and long term liability.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:55 am 
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Reposting this comment here so it doesn't get buried in the game day thread. Thought it was interesting information

TheDesertSurfer wrote:
The 2017 Dbacks are hitting .295 at home, and .217 on the road
In 2016, they hit 270 at thome and .252 on the road
Does the absence of Segura make THAT much difference??
Pollock is a non factor as he missed most of 2016 anyway


I don't think you can assign this to any one player. I'm not even sure there is any GOOD explanation for it.

HERE is the list of road stats for the 2016 team. Yes Segura was good, but look at how many players hit better on the road last year compared to THIS YEAR

There is only one full time player with an OPS over .800 on the road this year, (Lamb), last year there were 3, ( Goldy, Tomas and Segura). And there were far fewer LOWS. Last year there were 3 players with significant number of PA's with an OPS under .700, Drury, Bourn, and Ahmed, and this year you have so many players who don't even top .700 OPS.

My original thinking was that it was mainly due to the team being too aggressive. But that doesn't seem to hold up well when looking at the data. the 2017 team has only slightly worse BB/K ratios on the road than the 2016 team. But the Hard hit rate and BABIP are WAY off in 2017, and FB and HR/FB% are off too. For whatever reason, they are just not making as good contact on the road. Even if making as good contact, you would expect worse results on the road, as Chase DOES help batted balls. But at the end of the day this all comes down to quality of contact and BABIP. Last year there was not a big split in home/road BABIP, and this year there is....so far.

And the best bet is that will regress towards the mean going forward.......meaning lower BABIP at home and higher BABIP on the road. But this does not take into account the Humidor being installed at Chase field and possible effects there.

Check out the BB/K ratios, BABIP, and FB% and HR/FB

Code:
          BB    K   BB/K   BABIP Hard Hit% FB%   HR/FB
2016 H   228   736   .31   .325   35.1%   30.3%   17.7%
2016 A   235   691   .34   .307   31.4%   31.3%   11.5%
Total    463   1427  .32   .315   33.3%   30.8%   14.5%


Code:
          BB   K   BB/K   BABIP Hard Hit% FB%    HR/FB
2017 H   93   237   .39   .345   40.1%   34.5%   17.5%
2017 A   93   287   .32   .275   29.4%   31.6%   12.5%
Total   186   524   .35   .310   34.9%   33.1%   15.2%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 11:24 am 
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From shoewizard:

Image

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"It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done!"
- Rocky Balboa on the 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks, those comeback kids


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 12:06 pm 
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OK, so what is THIS table about ? This may be a TL;DR for many, but this is what I was thinking about this morning and I have to explain it for it to make any sense.

I was looking at how the team hitting has done collectively and individually against projections. Some explanations:

EDIT: Here is the shortest way to describe this I can think of, but for details, please do read below:

The team EXPECTS David Peralta and AJ Pollock to be over 100 OPS+, and when they are constructing their roster they are banking on that. Meanwhile, they are NOT expecting that from Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed and Daniel Descalso. So Relative to expectations, the latter 3 have had a greater positive impact on the team's offense than Pollock and Peralta, even though all 3 are BEHIND Pollock and Peralta in OPS+


1.) ZIPS projects OPS+ & Steamer projects wRC+ Both are PARK & LEAGUE ADJUSTED metrics, (100 = league avg). I'm using this because raw OPS and runs per game are up again this year. So comparing raw numbers would be misleading.......rising tide raises all boats, yada yada..... so using the park/league adjusted metrics to compare makes sense, as league

2.) wRC+ slightly favors hitters who walk more, and OPS+ slightly favors hitters who have more power. But for MOST players, they come in pretty close.

3.) I wanted to show how the players are doing against BOTH projection systems, but since ZIPS only shows OPS+ and Steamer only shows wRC+, I had to combine them somehow. So I ended up averaging them in the final column.

4.) Impact : This is simply the percentage the player has of the team's PA's multiplied times the Over/Under projections number

(PA/TeamPA) * (over/under projected OPS+-wRC+)

So here is the Gist:

I'm sure the team has their own internal set of projections. They are probably close to the composite average for Steamer and ZIPS. For sure they have some differences on some players. The must have a proprietary system, and their scouting certainly impacts their projected performance for a player. But more or less, the EXPECTATIONS from the front office for each hitter coming in to the season couldn't be that far off from the projected ZIPS and Steamer. It's notable however that Steamer was more pessimistic than ZIPS coming into the season. I wouldn't expect a range bigger than that, in either direction, from the teams front office/analytics group.

ZIPS projected 101 OPS+, and team has a 101 OPS+. Steamer projected 92 wRC+, and they have a 102 wRC+. (Note the total of OPS+ and wRC+ pretty much the same in results, although different for certain players) So far anyway, ZIPS has been more on Target than Steamer this year, for the D Backs hitters, anyway.

What I am showing here is the over/under projection for each player, and the "IMPACT" is a pro rated number based on PA's.

SO for example Jeremy Hazelbaker hit way above projections, but only 29PA , so impact is limited. Paul Goldschmidt is above projections, but not wildly so, however since he plays every day, the impact over/under is greater.

This is important because the team, when building the roster, has certain expectations, as mentioned above. And there are always going to be guys out and under performing expectations. What this table does however is allow you to see the IMPACT of that over/under .

So take a look at the table, and then see my additional comments under the table:
TAP wrote:
From shoewizard:

Image



So players highlighted in Green have obviously had the biggest impact over projections, and players in Red have had the biggest negative impact under projections.

Players with white background have had some over/under projections impact, but it's limited.

Lamb
has been outperforming projections by a large margin, and the positive impact is obvious. We saw his slump last year though, and need to hope he does not have a similar one this year.

Owings continues to improve and develop, and his impact above projections is significant.

Goldy
is back to being Goldy......most of the time, except sometimes on the road.

:?

Ahmed
has provided alot of value over projection, as has Descalso, who has the biggest gap of wRC+ over OPS+ as his walks give him big bump in wRC+

Drury
and Iannetta are doing a little better than projections, but not by a ton

Peralta
is an interesting case: He actually has the largest negative impact vs. projections in the ZIPS columns, as ZIPS was high on him with a 118 OPS+. But the power has not bee there for David this year. Most notably, remember all those triples he used to hit ? He only has 1 this year so far, after averaging 8 the previous 3 years, and 14 per 650 PA. But Steamer was more pessimistic on Peralta than ZIPS, so that pulls his avg impact compared to projection up. Got it ? ;)

Not much was expected of Blanco, but he's been even worse than that

Pollock
is similar to Peralta...had better ZIPS projection and worse Steamer projection. His overall numbers are not bad, but relative to expectations, it's negative. When he comes back, they have to hope that he steps up too, and is not impacted by the groin injury any longer.

Herrmann
would be a disaster if he had more playing time. Bert needs to stop going on and on about the "quality" of his long at bats. Yeah he has the highest Pit/PA on the team, but that needs to translate into more consistent production. He can't live off a few clutch hits forever.

WHICH....brings us to the caboose

Tomas REALLY needs to heat up......especially if Lamb cools, they will need Tomas to flip it around, much like last year.

And Mathis and Fuentes, despite limited playing time, have really been a HUGE negative drag even against the low expectations that existed for them in the first place.

The only thing we can say here is that Mathis seems to provide the stability that allows Greinke to excel, and the pitch framing and defense metrics probably understate his positive impact in those areas.

So there you have it. A slightly different way to look at performance , vs. projections, and the impact it has on the team overall.

Cheers

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


Last edited by shoewizard on Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:13 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:05 pm 
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Damn, shoe. Great analysis. It's like Moneyball, but in written form and minus Pitt.

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2014: What a joke; Team. Manager. GM. CEO. Cindy Brunson. Todd Walsh. Steve Berthiaume. Polo shirts. Entire organization. I want to insert that 18-inch corn dog into each one of their a$$es...slowly. Then re-sell the corn dogs to Dodger fans.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 05, 2017 2:16 pm 
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wait.....you're saying I'm not Brad Pitt ? My wife may disagree. But my wife may not have good vision.... :lol:

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 04, 2017 8:26 am 
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So another month in and here is what I am seeing for the offense:



1.) The team, despite a middle of the pack OPS+ of 96, (8th in NL) ranks 3rd in runs scored.

The above "discrepancy" is due to two factors:

A.) They rank at or near the top in virtually every high leverage situation, i.e. BA/OPS W/ RISP, 2 Out W/ RISP, Late and Close, High Leverage, etc. Past success in these situations has proven to NOT be an indicator of future success. The most likely scenario is some regression towards the mean in these areas.

B.) Relative to the league, Chase Field is playing more hitter friendly than ever. Of course the team has the best Home Batting record in the NL, and th 4th worst road batting record, impacting the Park Factors

So the combination of great performance in high leverage "clutch" situations, and playing in a hitter friendly park that inflates run scoring has cause the team to rank better in the raw "Runs Per Game" total than in the park adjust OPS+.


2.) Most of our hitters are still well above their projected OPS. Conventional wisdom would project regression to the mean here as well. However there are a lot of young players on this team, so perhaps the projections have not caught up to their development yet. Projections are in fact a lagging indicator. So we'll see. But it does need to be noted that almost to a man, every starter on the team is above projections.

3.) The schedule and pitching faced gets tougher over the second half, starting tonight.


For the above 3 reasons, it would seem that all indications point towards regression for the offense. However hopefully some of that is offset by the healthy return of AJ Pollock

I would look for more low scoring, close games and even more one run games. It should be a tense, exciting stretch run.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:44 am 
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shoewizard wrote:

I would look for more low scoring, close games and even more one run games. It should be a tense, exciting stretch run.


Image

_________________
2014: What a joke; Team. Manager. GM. CEO. Cindy Brunson. Todd Walsh. Steve Berthiaume. Polo shirts. Entire organization. I want to insert that 18-inch corn dog into each one of their a$$es...slowly. Then re-sell the corn dogs to Dodger fans.


Last edited by Jethawker on Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:29 am 
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image is broken on my browser

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:33 am 
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Well, she was hot and doing a nice stretch.

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2014: What a joke; Team. Manager. GM. CEO. Cindy Brunson. Todd Walsh. Steve Berthiaume. Polo shirts. Entire organization. I want to insert that 18-inch corn dog into each one of their a$$es...slowly. Then re-sell the corn dogs to Dodger fans.


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:42 am 
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darn :evil:

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:58 am 
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I don't know what you use, but chrome has it as a broken image, too.

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:51 pm 
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Jethawker wrote:
shoewizard wrote:

I would look for more low scoring, close games and even more one run games. It should be a tense, exciting stretch run.


Image


The problem was that you copied the google link I think

Copying the actual url works

http://www.thejourneyjunkie.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/fabletics_yoga-clothes_review-11.jpg

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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:35 pm 
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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sat Jul 08, 2017 10:39 pm 
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Regression is a bitch, isn't it ?

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: 2017 Offense and Position Players
 Post Posted: Sun Jul 09, 2017 11:23 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
So another month in and here is what I am seeing for the offense:



1.) The team, despite a middle of the pack OPS+ of 96, (8th in NL) ranks 3rd in runs scored.

The above "discrepancy" is due to two factors:

A.) They rank at or near the top in virtually every high leverage situation, i.e. BA/OPS W/ RISP, 2 Out W/ RISP, Late and Close, High Leverage, etc. Past success in these situations has proven to NOT be an indicator of future success. The most likely scenario is some regression towards the mean in these areas.

B.) Relative to the league, Chase Field is playing more hitter friendly than ever. Of course the team has the best Home Batting record in the NL, and th 4th worst road batting record, impacting the Park Factors

So the combination of great performance in high leverage "clutch" situations, and playing in a hitter friendly park that inflates run scoring has cause the team to rank better in the raw "Runs Per Game" total than in the park adjust OPS+.


2.) Most of our hitters are still well above their projected OPS. Conventional wisdom would project regression to the mean here as well. However there are a lot of young players on this team, so perhaps the projections have not caught up to their development yet. Projections are in fact a lagging indicator. So we'll see. But it does need to be noted that almost to a man, every starter on the team is above projections.

3.) The schedule and pitching faced gets tougher over the second half, starting tonight.


For the above 3 reasons, it would seem that all indications point towards regression for the offense. However hopefully some of that is offset by the healthy return of AJ Pollock

I would look for more low scoring, close games and even more one run games. It should be a tense, exciting stretch run.



Dbacks 29th in wRC+(58) in July & 26th in Runs scored

Triple slash so far this month .197/.268/.368 .636 OPS

Sometimes regression happens all at once

http://tinyurl.com/yd8xgohh

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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