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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 7:30 am 
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Creeping up

Code:
Site    FG      BP       538   Avg
POFF   65.7%   74.2%   63.0%   67.6%
DIV     5.2%    9.2%   10.0%    8.1%
WC     60.5%   65.0%   53.0%   59.5%
WS      1.8%    3.1%    3.0%    2.6%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:12 pm 
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So are we buyers at the deadline?

Do you think LA or Colorado will stand pat?


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 20, 2017 9:24 am 
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And right on que Nick provides the answer.

http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/m ... 410488001/

Key quotes.

“When the time comes,” Hazen said, “if we’re standing in a position to help make the team better, we’re going to try to make the team better.”

I think if you would poll every contender, every one of them would probably say bullpen,” Hazen said. “I think there are reasons for that. One, you have seven spots out there. And, two, you typically have a lot of ups and downs as you go through the season. That’s just something we’ll probably be looking at.”

Assuming the Diamondbacks don’t want to mess with their current mix of catchers, the outfield seems the most likely area to upgrade. The outfield trade market could include some interesting players, perhaps including Marlins’ Marcell Ozuna, the Royals’ Lorenzo Cain and the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen.

Hazen also mentioned the possibility of adding another starting pitcher, if for no other reason than should the club sustain an injury after the July 31 non-waiver deadline its options for outside help would be limited.

Hazen could be limited by a couple of factors. He still doesn’t have many top-tier prospects to dangle in a deal. There are certainly enough intriguing players to get something done – lefty Anthony Banda, outfielder Marcus Wilson and right-hander Jon Duplantier, for example – but a deal would likely diminish an already shallow system.

“We have all of the confidence in the world in Mike and his staff and look forward to hearing his suggestions and ideas,” Hall said in a text message. “We are open to adding to payroll with the assumption that our ticket revenues will continue to exceed budget due to winning results, but we also know Mike will be very careful not to mortgage the future, as that is not his nature.”


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 25, 2017 11:10 am 
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So I was traveling for over 10 days and hadn't had a chance to update this since June 11th, and obviously since then the team has gone on a tear. There is good news and bad news here.

The good news is the chance to make the Wild Card is approaching lock territory, barring a complete collapse.

The bad news is the Dodgers have been even hotter, AND still project to be better over the balance of the season. So the odds to win the division have not gone up. In fact they have gone down since June 8th

However the D Backs still have 12 games head to head against the Dodgers, 6 home, and 6 away, starting with 3 game series in LA July 4-5-6

So the team will very much have a chance to take matters into their own hands. If they are better than the Dodgers, and can win the division, it starts with going at least 7-5 or 8-4 in those 12 games. Of course they have to still keep taking care of business against everyone else. Confidence levels that they will do just that are sky high. Exciting summer !

Code:
Site   FG       BP     538     Avg
POFF   90.0%   93.6%   89.0%   90.9%
DIV     4.4%    8.6%   12.0%    8.3%
WC     85.6%   85.0%   77.0%   82.5%
WS      2.5%    4.0%    5.0%    3.8%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 25, 2017 12:57 pm 
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Advantage LA; until August. The Dodgers have a pretty sweet schedule in July after the AS break, but they have a rough stretch in August. The D-backs' chances will be pretty clear by Sept 1st.

AZ: July 11 home, 13 away; August 14 home, 15 away; September 13 home, 15 away
LA: July 16 home, 7 away; August 8 home, 19 away; September 13 home, 17 away

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Sun Jun 25, 2017 2:17 pm 
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Oden wrote:
Advantage LA; until August. The Dodgers have a pretty sweet schedule in July after the AS break, but they have a rough stretch in August. The D-backs' chances will be pretty clear by Sept 1st.

AZ: July 11 home, 13 away; August 14 home, 15 away; September 13 home, 15 away
LA: July 16 home, 7 away; August 8 home, 19 away; September 13 home, 17 away


Check out D Backs from Aug 8-21

A lot of home games, but entire two week stretch is all very tough competition. Get through that unscathed and beat the Dodgers 7-5, 8-4 like I said and they can do this

After Aug 22, schedule actually not that hard. I think they can pretty much insure their WC slot by Sept 1, but unless they really tail off, the Division should be in play until Mid September I would think

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:12 am 
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Figured I'd put this Schedule comment here:

Remaining Games, vs. opponents:

Under .500 44 Games
Over .500 38 games
AT .500 3 games

BUT....of those 38 games against teams over .500, 29 are against teams WAY over .500, including

12 vs. LAD, 10 vs. Rockies, 3 vs WAS and 4 vs HOU, and they have 6 against the Cubs who everyone is waiting for to "wakeup".

Flip side, they have 12 vs. Giants, 6 vs. SD and 6 vs. CIN who all really suck, and they have 3 vs. MIA who is in sell mode and god knows what they will be fielding by the time we play them.

The time from August 8 thru Aug 21 and also the 12 games Head to Head with the Dodgers......thats all it right there.

Schedule overall not REALLY that hard....more games vs. teams under 500 than over, but the key is beating LA 7-5, or 8-4. Splitting 12 games doesn't get it done, and of course can't come out on the short side.


Here is Breakdown

UNDER .500 Teams

Giants 12
Cards 7
Reds 6
Braves 6
Padres 6
Mets 4
Marlins 3
Total 44

AT .500
Royals 3

OVER .500 Teams

Dodgers 12
Rockies 10
Cubs 6
Astros 4
Nationals 3
Twins 3
Total 38

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 9:43 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Figured I'd put this Schedule comment here:

Remaining Games, vs. opponents:

Under .500 44 Games
Over .500 38 games
AT .500 3 games

BUT....of those 38 games against teams over .500, 29 are against teams WAY over .500, including

12 vs. LAD, 10 vs. Rockies, 3 vs WAS and 4 vs HOU, and they have 6 against the Cubs who everyone is waiting for to "wakeup".

Flip side, they have 12 vs. Giants, 6 vs. SD and 6 vs. CIN who all really suck, and they have 3 vs. MIA who is in sell mode and god knows what they will be fielding by the time we play them.

The time from August 8 thru Aug 21 and also the 12 games Head to Head with the Dodgers......thats all it right there.

Schedule overall not REALLY that hard....more games vs. teams under 500 than over, but the key is beating LA 7-5, or 8-4. Splitting 12 games doesn't get it done, and of course can't come out on the short side.


Here is Breakdown

UNDER .500 Teams

Giants 12
Cards 7
Reds 6
Braves 6
Padres 6
Mets 4
Marlins 3
Total 44

AT .500
Royals 3

OVER .500 Teams

Dodgers 12
Rockies 10
Cubs 6
Astros 4
Nationals 3
Twins 3
Total 38


Great stuff. How does this compare with the LAD as far as who they face going forward?


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 10:23 am 
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98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Figured I'd put this Schedule comment here:

Remaining Games, vs. opponents:

Under .500 44 Games
Over .500 38 games
AT .500 3 games

BUT....of those 38 games against teams over .500, 29 are against teams WAY over .500, including

12 vs. LAD, 10 vs. Rockies, 3 vs WAS and 4 vs HOU, and they have 6 against the Cubs who everyone is waiting for to "wakeup".

Flip side, they have 12 vs. Giants, 6 vs. SD and 6 vs. CIN who all really suck, and they have 3 vs. MIA who is in sell mode and god knows what they will be fielding by the time we play them.

The time from August 8 thru Aug 21 and also the 12 games Head to Head with the Dodgers......thats all it right there.

Schedule overall not REALLY that hard....more games vs. teams under 500 than over, but the key is beating LA 7-5, or 8-4. Splitting 12 games doesn't get it done, and of course can't come out on the short side.


Here is Breakdown

UNDER .500 Teams

Giants 12
Cards 7
Reds 6
Braves 6
Padres 6
Mets 4
Marlins 3
Total 44

AT .500
Royals 3

OVER .500 Teams

Dodgers 12
Rockies 10
Cubs 6
Astros 4
Nationals 3
Twins 3
Total 38


Great stuff. How does this compare with the LAD as far as who they face going forward?



LAD
Under .500


SD 12
SF 9
CHWS 4
Miami 3
Atlanta 7
NYM 3
Pitts 4
Detroit 3
Phil 4

total: 49

.500
KC 3

Above .500

LAA 3
AZ 12
Col 8
Minn 3
Mil 3
Wsh 3

Total: 32


Colorado
Under .500

SD 10
SF 7
Cin 4
CHWS 3
NYM 6
Pit 3
STL 3
Phil 3
Miami 5
Atlanta 7
Det 3

Total: 54

.500
KC 3

Over .500


LAD 7
AZ 10
Wsh 3
Cle 2
Mil 3

Total: 25

The Rockies and LAD close out the season with a 3 game series against each other, where we visit the Royals.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:45 am 
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Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on LA and Colorado Justin. I was vacuuming and mopping floors. (My wife comes home tonight from long trip....gotta clean the house haha)

So.......in CONTEXT the D Backs still have much tougher schedule than their main divisional competition. So thats not ideal.

The combination of the Dodgers surging AND their easier schedule compared to ours, is going to make it really tough to overtake them.

Gotta do really well in the head to head. Bottom line, you wanna be the best, BEAT the best.

EDIT: And obviously I am just being greedy now. The team has outperformed all expectations, projections etc. But it's never enough for me. I want it all. Can't help it.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 12:58 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Thanks for doing the heavy lifting on LA and Colorado Justin. I was vacuuming and mopping floors. (My wife comes home tonight from long trip....gotta clean the house haha)

So.......in CONTEXT the D Backs still have much tougher schedule than their main divisional competition. So thats not ideal.

The combination of the Dodgers surging AND their easier schedule compared to ours, is going to make it really tough to overtake them.

Gotta do really well in the head to head. Bottom line, you wanna be the best, BEAT the best.

EDIT: And obviously I am just being greedy now. The team has outperformed all expectations, projections etc. But it's never enough for me. I want it all. Can't help it.


Looks like LAD is going to win the division. I'd be happy with a home WC game where we have enough of a lead to set up our pitching the week or so before with optimal rest and in the optimal order.


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:34 am 
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Seems the projection systems are having a hard time catching up to current team performance. Actually almost every hitter in the lineup is well over projected OPS. And of course the pitchers are almost all to man outperforming projections. So of course the rest of season projections are going to see regression. Quite a bit actually.

Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the team going 43-41 the rest of the way, and 538 only has them marginally better, going 45-39 the rest of the way.

With the 50 wins already in the bank, that still brings the D Backs to 93-95 wins and a wild card spot. But the projections also see the Dodgers getting to anywhere from 102-105 wins.

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:39 am 
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Stolen from the Bickster.

The Suns, Diamondbacks and Coyotes have combined for 17 consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance.

The Dbacks are half way home to ending that streak!


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 6:45 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
With the 50 wins already in the bank, that still brings the D Backs to 93-95 wins and a wild card spot. But the projections also see the Dodgers getting to anywhere from 102-105 wins.

Gotta figure the club has good odds of advancing past the wildcard game if the dbax are hosting with Greinke on the hill.

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Jun 30, 2017 7:02 am 
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The Shadow wrote:
Stolen from the Bickster.

The Suns, Diamondbacks and Coyotes have combined for 17 consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance.

The Dbacks are half way home to ending that streak!



NBA has too many playoff teams, imo, so that could be longer I'm assuming. (Any league that let's 2 or 3 teams with sub .500 records in annually...like the 21 team NHL.)

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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 03, 2017 5:56 am 
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Updated as of July 3rd (Thru yesterday's games)

Same trend as June 25th.....up a few points overall, but Division title odds down another tick.

Even if D Backs sweep the series in LA, and take a 1/2 game lead in the division, Dodgers will still be favored to win the division. They just project much better on paper right now. Only thing the team can do to change the odds is keep winning.

So looking forward to this series.

Code:
Site     FG     BP     538     Avg
POFF   93.6%   96.2%   90.0%   93.3%
DIV     4.4%    7.7%   11.0%    7.7%
WC     89.2%   88.5%   79.0%   85.6%
WS      2.4%    4.2%    9.0%    5.2%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Thu Jul 06, 2017 7:48 am 
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Will update tomorrow after today's game. But obviously already low division title odds are dropping towards life support levels.

Really need a great game from Ray today

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Fri Jul 07, 2017 12:25 pm 
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Overall POFF Percentage still at 90%, but Division title hopes on Life support.

And so are the world series chances, because even if they win a one game playoff they look like they will have to face the Dodgers in the first round as Dodgers will most likely have the best record unless they slump and Washington gets really hot. (Dodgers have 7 game lead over the Nationals for best record by division winner)

Code:
Site   FG       BP     538     Avg
POFF   90.0%   94.3%   86.0%   90.1%
DIV     1.7%    3.6%    5.0%    3.4%
WC     89.2%   90.9%   81.0%   87.0%
WS      2.3%    4.2%    3.0%    3.2%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:19 am 
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Updated heading into the All Star Break

Odds dipping below 90% for first time since June 24th. But still a very strong 87%. Division hopes are now in Miracle territory. No big surprise there. WC Odds down to 85.8%. Whats notable is the BIG drop at 538. Wonder what their system is seeing that has the drop so much more quickly than FG and BP ?

Code:
Site    FG      BP      538      Avg
POFF   87.9%   92.8%   81.0%   87.2%
DIV     0.6%    1.7%    2.0%    1.4%
WC     87.2%   91.1%   79.0%   85.8%
WS      2.5%    4.1%    3.0%    3.2%

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trading young number one over all talent for back end of the rotation talent was fundamentally irresponsible. BFDD


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 Post subject: Re: Playoff Odds 2017
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 10, 2017 1:08 pm 
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Courtesy of shoewizard

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- Rocky Balboa on the 2017 Arizona Diamondbacks, those comeback kids


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