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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Sat Aug 20, 2016 3:17 pm 
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Strebor wrote:
Miller has a 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9 in 38 IP in Reno. What is the point of keeping him down there?

1. Down there, he looks good. That keeps him from being the embarrassment he has been at the major league level.
2. Out of sight, out of mind.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:51 am 
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Strebor wrote:
Miller has a 10.7 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, and 0.5 HR/9 in 38 IP in Reno. What is the point of keeping him down there?

A few more starts there can't hurt, only 3 of his 6 starts were more than 6 innings, gave up 10 hits in his last start, and Game Score <50 in 3 of his 6 starts. Not bad at all, but if he's fixed I'd think he'd be doing better.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 7:49 am 
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Miller said, “just kind of tired of losing.”

Dont think this is enough of the anger mgt is looking for.


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:57 am 
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Hey Shelby, think how the rest of us feel!


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 11:53 am 
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The Shadow wrote:
Miller said, “just kind of tired of losing.”


We understand. So are we. So, retire. Find another endeavor to pursue to give your life meaning and purpose; and ask to be released from your contract, so the Diamondbacks can put the money you would have otherwise received to another, and hopefully better, use.

That's a win-win scenario all the way around! No more losing for you; no more losing for the team (when you pitch); no more losing for the fans (when you pitch).

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:08 pm 
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Todd Walsh was uncharacteristically blunt in the post game.
Paraphrasing best I can by memory:

" The big question was whether or not Shelby Miller could bridge from his promising start in San Francisco to a good start against a better lineup in LA. The answer was an emphatic NO !" (he actually really used a lot of inflection and emphasis as he said NO !)

Todd then went on to point out that at least 8 of the hits by the Dodgers had exit velocities over 100 MPH. (Todd Walsh going with the Data man !!)

And he then said, "Shellby Miller wasn’t fooling anyone tonight"

I was actually stunned to hear him say all this so bluntly and not sugar coat it. Definitely not his style or MO, but I guess Miller starts bring that out in people.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 12:58 pm 
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Could Todd be sending the signal that the Diamondbacks are getting ready to dump Miller?

You know, could this be the first round of the denigrating the player prior to selling low that we typically see prior to a trade?

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:37 pm 
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EvilJuan wrote:
Could Todd be sending the signal that the Diamondbacks are getting ready to dump Miller?

You know, could this be the first round of the denigrating the player prior to selling low that we typically see prior to a trade?



My thoughts exactly.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:54 am 
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Did we ever find out what was Tony La Russa's kind of yucky thing Miller was doing?


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:18 am 
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check your pm

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:25 am 
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Diamondbacks righty Shelby Miller has hired Roc Nation Sports and agent Kyle Thousand to represent him, Liz Mullen of the Sports Business Journal reports on Twitter.

Miller, who’s still just 26 years of age, underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-May. So long as his recovery goes well, he ought to be ready to go at some point in the middle of the 2018 season.

Arizona will have to think hard about whether to tender Miller a contract, though odds are the team will deem it a worthwhile risk. Miller won’t command much of a raise on the $4.7MM salary he commanded for 2017, and he’ll still be controllable for another season through the arb process.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:13 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
check your pm


Can you PM me on this as well?


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:51 pm 
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98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
check your pm


Can you PM me on this as well?




X2

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:31 pm 
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IA DBACK wrote:
98dback wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
check your pm


Can you PM me on this as well?


X2


Might as well post it here... ;) Or PM it to everyone. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:56 am 
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You guys know that post was from March, right? :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:02 pm 
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Justin wrote:
You guys know that post was from March, right? :lol:




Yes but I hadn't checked this thread in well a looong time. Mainly because I'm not too big of fan of Shelby.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 9:52 am 
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Should the team tender Shelby Miller a contract ?

He had his surgery May 10th. So estimates would range on return anywhere from Mid May to after the All Star break. Just depends on how his recovery goes, and thats not knowable. But for the sake of this comment, I will make the assumption he is not back on major league roster and able to perform until after the ASB in Mid July, and will be available for about the last 70-75 games of the 2018 season.

On the one hand, it is perceived that if he were non tendered, and a free agent, he would do better than the arb estimate amount of 4.9 M. I think thats a reasonable assumption, but not necessarily a slam dunk. After all, you are talking about a half season availability in 2018, not a full season. For the D Backs, they would have control for one more year, 2019, and then he would be a free agent for the 2020 season. So if you keep Miller you essentially get him 1.5 seasons of control. If he is allowed to walk in FA, how many years would a team sign him for ? 1 with a team option ? 2 at most ?

Back to the D Backs options, you would have to pay 4.9 M for 2018, and if he has successful recovery, around 6-7M for 2019. So roughly 11-12 Million for 1.5 seasons. Your DREAM scenario would be to get 15 starts, 75 innings in 2018, and then 28 Starts, 150 innings in 2018. So roughly 225 innings over a year and half for 11-12 million. Depending on the quality of those innings, it could be a break even scenario, but not actually a lot of upside.

If he generates about 1.5 WAR, it's a push, if he gets to 2 WAR it's a slight positive. The odds of getting 3 WAR don't seem all that high......and to me those upside odds are definitely lower than the odds of him being just a 1 WAR pitcher or worse. After all, for his 123 IP over 2016-7 he was slightly below replacement level, and is now coming off TJ surgery. To me that outweighs the 3 WAR he averaged from age 22-24 in 2013-2015.

If the D Backs DO tender him they would have the option to trade him and try to get a player of equal value back. But that could be a tricky proposition, based on above thoughts.

One thing I was thinking about is whether or not they should convert him to a reliever, at least for 2018. But then it's not worth it to Tender him for 2018 just for 20-30 innings of second half relief work in half a season.

For most teams, Miller is worth the gamble. But for a team with a very tight payroll situation , and not much flexibility, the "if come" of Miller rebounding well from his surgery and being effective may be a luxury the D Backs can't afford.

I won't be surprised by any result here.

Non Tender and goodbye
Non Tender and resign to lesser deal (not likely, unless he really loves Arizona)
Tender him and look for payroll flexibility elsewhere.

My choice ?

Unless I am sure I can trade him for some kind of value approaching his projected value, including any risk discounts, then I probably don't tender him. I use that money for someone else

_________________
It's time for ownership to stop pretending they can't afford substantial payroll increases from recent levels. They absolutely can
viewtopic.php?p=244425#p244425


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 1:23 pm 
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Are the dbax in the financial position to gamble $5M on half a season coming off TJ recovery versus investing those resources in a more reliable product?

This seems like an easy call. Non-Tender, move on from that debacle of a transaction, and allow internal prospects to grow into the rotation.

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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:19 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Should the team tender Shelby Miller a contract ?

He had his surgery May 10th. So estimates would range on return anywhere from Mid May to after the All Star break. Just depends on how his recovery goes, and thats not knowable. But for the sake of this comment, I will make the assumption he is not back on major league roster and able to perform until after the ASB in Mid July, and will be available for about the last 70-75 games of the 2018 season.

On the one hand, it is perceived that if he were non tendered, and a free agent, he would do better than the arb estimate amount of 4.9 M. I think thats a reasonable assumption, but not necessarily a slam dunk. After all, you are talking about a half season availability in 2018, not a full season. For the D Backs, they would have control for one more year, 2019, and then he would be a free agent for the 2020 season. So if you keep Miller you essentially get him 1.5 seasons of control. If he is allowed to walk in FA, how many years would a team sign him for ? 1 with a team option ? 2 at most ?

Back to the D Backs options, you would have to pay 4.9 M for 2018, and if he has successful recovery, around 6-7M for 2019. So roughly 11-12 Million for 1.5 seasons. Your DREAM scenario would be to get 15 starts, 75 innings in 2018, and then 28 Starts, 150 innings in 2018. So roughly 225 innings over a year and half for 11-12 million. Depending on the quality of those innings, it could be a break even scenario, but not actually a lot of upside.

If he generates about 1.5 WAR, it's a push, if he gets to 2 WAR it's a slight positive. The odds of getting 3 WAR don't seem all that high......and to me those upside odds are definitely lower than the odds of him being just a 1 WAR pitcher or worse. After all, for his 123 IP over 2016-7 he was slightly below replacement level, and is now coming off TJ surgery. To me that outweighs the 3 WAR he averaged from age 22-24 in 2013-2015.

If the D Backs DO tender him they would have the option to trade him and try to get a player of equal value back. But that could be a tricky proposition, based on above thoughts.

One thing I was thinking about is whether or not they should convert him to a reliever, at least for 2018. But then it's not worth it to Tender him for 2018 just for 20-30 innings of second half relief work in half a season.

For most teams, Miller is worth the gamble. But for a team with a very tight payroll situation , and not much flexibility, the "if come" of Miller rebounding well from his surgery and being effective may be a luxury the D Backs can't afford.

I won't be surprised by any result here.

Non Tender and goodbye
Non Tender and resign to lesser deal (not likely, unless he really loves Arizona)
Tender him and look for payroll flexibility elsewhere.

My choice ?

Unless I am sure I can trade him for some kind of value approaching his projected value, including any risk discounts, then I probably don't tender him. I use that money for someone else


If I could use the money to go toward signing JD, or more to the point, if I have to have that money to sign JD, I'd let him walk. Otherwise, I'd bring him back and try him in relief. He could be the 7th or 8th inning bridge to Bradley. If Miller was throwing high 90's last year as a starter, I'd assume he could throw some gas in relief. A healthy Miller/Bradley back end wouldn't suck...


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 Post subject: Re: Dbacks get Shelby Miller
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:21 pm 
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dirtygary wrote:
Are the dbax in the financial position to gamble $5M on half a season coming off TJ recovery versus investing those resources in a more reliable product?

This seems like an easy call. Non-Tender, move on from that debacle of a transaction, and allow internal prospects to grow into the rotation.


This all depends on Kendrick's mindset. If he really thinks this team has a run in it, I'm not so sure he wouldn't elevate the payroll next year. And the good thing about a deal like Miller's is that you're not signing a guy to multi year deal and elevating the payroll into the future. It's simply a 1 year play.


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