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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:40 pm 
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TAP wrote:
That assumes a modicum of maturity and wisdom.


Well, I wouldn't know anything about that, myself. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:09 pm 
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I have never understood the collecting of autographs just to have things that are signed.

The only way that makes sense to me is A) you're a little kid or big fan and it's going to be a treasured memory, or B) you're just looking to accumulate memorabilia to trade or sell at a later date.

I have only asked for an autograph a couple times in my life, once was in 1999 when Jerry Colangelo was signing copies of his autobiography at the public library (which I work at, so I got at the end of the line and chatted with him a bit after he got through with the line and that was pretty cool. The other time was when I was at a Suns' game back in the late 70's - when I was a kid (I waiting outside the player's dressing room and got Alvan Adam's autograph).

Other than that all I have that have signatures are books signed by the author, usually when they have sent me copies for having helped them with research.

And once a guy tells you "No." that should be enough. It doesn't matter what the reason is, leave them alone.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 9:57 am 
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bobster wrote:
I have never understood the collecting of autographs just to have things that are signed.

The only way that makes sense to me is A) you're a little kid or big fan and it's going to be a treasured memory, or B) you're just looking to accumulate memorabilia to trade or sell at a later date.



Totally agree with you to a certain degree. I have a Jackie Robinson signed baseball from AAA, just weeks before his call up. A family keepsake not for sale or trade.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:44 am 
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I think that would go with the big fan/treasured memory part.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:02 pm 
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Yep. I think so too, Justin. And although he signed it for my grandfather, I look at it as preserving history.

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2014: What a joke; Team. Manager. GM. CEO. Cindy Brunson. Todd Walsh. Steve Berthiaume. Polo shirts. Entire organization. I want to insert that 18-inch corn dog into each one of their a$$es...slowly. Then re-sell the corn dogs to Dodger fans.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:49 pm 
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I knew a guy who had books of cards of minor league players and former major leaguers who were now MILB coaches. He would wait in his seat by the dugout wait for the players and coaches come out to the field for Warmups and nicely ask them for an autograph which most would do or promised to do them when they came back into the dugout. If they said no he wouldn't keep after them nor got mad about it. That I have NO problem with. Getting autographs are kinda neat and he had a huge collection. But what Neshek did was out of line.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 07, 2017 8:09 pm 
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won a gold glove

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 8:03 am 
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I remember back in the 1980's, the Becket Baseball Card Guide published the addresses of the clubs. So I'd write a letter addressed to specific players, include 3 cards and a return envelope, and ask if they would sign just one of them and mail it back and they could keep the others. All 3 cards were returned almost every single time with at least one autograph. The best one was Steve Sax.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:03 pm 
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Interesting comment from Nick Piecoro in in this video

First 1:30 is addressing Drury/Corbin Yankees Rumors, then he switches over to Greinke.

He canvassed execs, scouts and agents to see what they though ZG would get if he were a FA. He is owed 4/127.

Seems like most people thought it would he would get around 4/100, give or take. (I asked Nick offline what was "highest" and he said one exec thought he could get a 5 year deal)

If 4/100 is the right number though, that still means D Backs will have to eat 25M to move him and not really get anything back in the way of prospects.

They could take a contract back too, thats where the Yankees offer of Ellsbury came in , but thats not likely to happen


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:06 am 
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He's more likely to be on the roster on Opening Day because of it. I expect Greinke to decline by 1 WAR per year although the decline curve for most players might not be a gradual decline, but rather sudden and fast depending on their skill set. It was a safe bet that Greinke wasn't going to live up to that contract from the minute he signed it and 2016 certainly didn't help when he got injured and missed most of the 2nd half of the season aside from getting wrecked in the handful of starts he did pitch in. 2017 he did fine, but I think the 6 bWAR/5 fWAR season is the best the Dbacks are getting out of him in any year of the contract. Of course things can change for the better or worse, but if we assume the 1 WAR decline model, Greinke's only going to put up 10 WAR ($90M in value) through 2021 which could make Greinke's contract (2.5 WAR/-12.125M surplus per year) just as bad as Tomas in terms of negative value (-1 WAR/-$14.833M surplus per year) to the team. Of course I also think 2018 is realistically the last year this team can contend with its current core given that Corbin and Pollock are free agents after the season. If Greinke isn't dealt, there's a good chance Corbin's $8.3M salary gets moved while in house options like Banda and Clarke compete for the 5th starter role in Spring. A free agent starter of Corbin's caliber is going to cost around the $15M per year range.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:35 am 
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Agree with pretty much all of that, but one thing I always kind of spitball in my mind when evaluating veterans is the potential “collapse rate”.

Also when looking at declining 1 WAR per year u really need to start from his 2018 projection not his 2017 performance.

So for example if ZG’ mean projection is to give 3 War in value in 2018, then you can expect 6 WAR of value over next 4 years, and a collapse rate in the 30’s meaning there is a 30% chance he would collapse to his lowest quartile of probable outcomes.

If you start with a 4 WAR mean projection then you would get 10 WAR over 4 seasons, which is what you have, but the collapse rate would still probably be in the mid 20’s

Meanwhile “breakout rates” would be in the low single digits


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:02 am 
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Quote:
A rival executive pondered the Diamondbacks’ roster situation earlier this month and recognized an odd juxtaposition: The decisions the team’s front office has to make, particularly when it comes to expensive right-hander Zack Greinke, would be far easier if the club hadn’t reached the postseason this year.

“You take it as the price of having had the year they had,” the executive said. “But it puts them in a much trickier spot.”


Article from Nick Piecoro


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:21 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Quote:
A rival executive pondered the Diamondbacks’ roster situation earlier this month and recognized an odd juxtaposition: The decisions the team’s front office has to make, particularly when it comes to expensive right-hander Zack Greinke, would be far easier if the club hadn’t reached the postseason this year.

“You take it as the price of having had the year they had,” the executive said. “But it puts them in a much trickier spot.”


Article from Nick Piecoro

I think it's a difficult choice only if they can't unload most of his contract, he's not likely to do better down the road and could easily make Tomas look like a bargain if he doesn't continue to produce.

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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 7:12 am 
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My deal:
Yankees get Greinke, Tomas, and Corbin. Dbacks get Ellsbury, Gardner, Gray, and Florial and/or Sheffield. Yankees are at around $166M and would be adding about $12M in salary, keeping them somewhere in the range of $18M under the luxury tax threshold in 2018. Corbin would give them another LHP for the rotation with the potential ($) to extend him beyond 2018. The Dbacks get two years of Gray vs. one year of Corbin, with at least some potential to extend him. Tomas would DH for the Yankees. Yankees get to keep Frazier, Torres, and Adams. Dbacks get about $94M in salary relief.

Unrealistic? yes.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:08 am 
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Other than getting rid of Ellsbury, why would the Yankees do that deal? How can the Dbacks get $94 MM in salary relief and the Yankees only take on $12 MM in salary? And give up Gray + Florial and/or Sheffield for the privilege? And have to take on Tomas' bad contract too?

It's never going to happen.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:11 am 
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Classic Rosterbation


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:30 am 
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When proposing a trade, try and pretend the other team involved (in this case the Yankees) is your favorite. Would you still make the same deal and believe your team is getting better, or at least accomplishing an aim (rebuilding, luxury tax managing, contending, getting younger, etc)? If not, it's not a good deal.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:04 pm 
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David B wrote:
Other than getting rid of Ellsbury, why would the Yankees do that deal? How can the Dbacks get $94 MM in salary relief and the Yankees only take on $12 MM in salary? And give up Gray + Florial and/or Sheffield for the privilege? And have to take on Tomas' bad contract too?

It's never going to happen.


Yankees take on Grienke ($138M) and Tomas ($42.5M); Dbacks take Ellsbury ($68M) and Gardner ($13M). The net effect is the Dbacks get rid of roughly $99.5M in salary over the next four years. The $12M is for 2018; the difference between Geinke/Tomas and Ellsbury/Gardner. The Yankees are at $167M for 2018 and want to stay under the luxury tax threshold of $197M. With the addition of Greinke, the Yankees would still have $18M to play with this off-season and/or the July trade deadline. They're at $88M/$87M/$51M for 2019-2021 as things stand now and could afford to sign Harper as a FA in 2019 if they wanted to. Gray and Corbin would be pretty much a wash for both teams.

The Yankees get an Ace and a decent DH that can hit 25+ HR. They also free up OF spots so their OF would be set at Stanton, Judge, Hicks, and Frazier. Any FA SP of the level of Greinke would want a five or six year contract rather than just the four they would have Greinke. They get a quality pitcher to replace Gray ( a tick below Sonny), another LHP for their rotation. Their rotation would be a lot stronger. They get to keep Torres and Adams.


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:30 pm 
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David B wrote:
When proposing a trade, try and pretend the other team involved (in this case the Yankees) is your favorite. Would you still make the same deal and believe your team is getting better, or at least accomplishing an aim (rebuilding, luxury tax managing, contending, getting younger, etc)? If not, it's not a good deal.


Luxury tax managing? Absolutely. Dramatically upgrading the SP while staying $18M under the luxury tax threshold for 2018.

Contending? Yes. Rotation is much better with Greinke , Severino, Tanaka, Sabathia, and Corbin. Currently listed at DH: Stanton, Judge, Ellsbury, and Austin. Tomas at DH would be better than Ellsbury or Austin, giving the Yankees more flexibility in the OF with Frazier and Hicks. As it stands now, only three SP are signed beyond 2019.

Rebuilding? The Yankees are well into their rebuild toward contention. Now it's a case of filling in the holes (an Ace) and with the hopeful addition of prospects Chance Adams and Gleyber Torres late in 2018 or early 2019


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 Post subject: Re: Zack Greinke to the DBACKS
 Post Posted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:13 pm 
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You forgot about the part where the Yankees take on close to $100 MM in payroll over 4 years at a time when they are trying to stay within a budget.

You asked for feedback and I gave it to you. It's an AZ fanboy trade. If the Yankees were your team you'd be laughing your head off at that deal.


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