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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 15, 2014 5:57 pm 
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Horrible

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 15, 2014 8:58 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
I know this smacks of extreme Hubris. After all you have TLR, Duncan, Stewart, Watson.....all guys that should know better.........but if I'm wrong on this one I'll eat my hat.

Or maybe the extreme hubris is on duncan/stewart's part, thinking they can "fix" any pitcher they bring into the fold.

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:30 am 
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dirtygary wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
I know this smacks of extreme Hubris. After all you have TLR, Duncan, Stewart, Watson.....all guys that should know better.........but if I'm wrong on this one I'll eat my hat.

Or maybe the extreme hubris is on duncan/stewart's part, thinking they can "fix" any pitcher they bring into the fold.


The problem is there is nothing to fix here. Even in his best seasons, his FIP was mid 4's.

Now if by fix, you mean bringing over the Tampa Bay defense and having workable pixie dust, then yes he can be fixed.

Now if by fixed, you mean eliminating the ability to procreate....

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2014 5:22 pm 
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Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1975 to 2014, Younger than 27, Throws RH, (requiring fip>=4, SOp9<=7, IP<=1000, earned_run_avg<.9*fip, At least 60% games started and At least 500 Innings Pitched), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+




Code:
                                                                                             
Rk              Player ERA+  FIP  SO9    IP  ERA From   To   G  W  L  HR9   H9  BB9 SO/W  WHIP
1           Cal Eldred  116 4.39 5.74 577.0 3.82 1991 1995  82 41 30 1.01 7.95 3.34 1.72 1.255
2      Doyle Alexander  106 4.05 3.15 762.1 3.52 1975 1978 127 47 38 0.72 8.48 3.10 1.02 1.287
3        Steve McCatty  106 4.23 4.46 627.1 3.56 1977 1981  99 39 33 0.83 8.48 3.67 1.21 1.350
4       Steve Trachsel  104 4.76 6.51 940.2 4.09 1993 1998 153 52 51 1.31 8.93 3.33 1.95 1.362
5        Chris Tillman  102 4.51 6.76 680.1 4.00 2009 2014 118 45 31 1.26 8.52 3.15 2.15 1.296
6    Jeremy Hellickson  101 4.36 6.51 640.0 3.78 2010 2014 115 40 36 1.17 8.40 2.95 2.20 1.261
7        Kyle Kendrick   97 4.82 4.64 757.2 4.30 2007 2012 164 54 42 1.19 9.66 2.60 1.79 1.362


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2014.


Age 28-29 seasons of these comps will not encourage

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2014 7:24 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1975 to 2014, Younger than 27, Throws RH, (requiring fip>=4, SOp9<=7, IP<=1000, earned_run_avg<.9*fip, At least 60% games started and At least 500 Innings Pitched), sorted by greatest Adjusted ERA+




Code:
                                                                                             
Rk              Player ERA+  FIP  SO9    IP  ERA From   To   G  W  L  HR9   H9  BB9 SO/W  WHIP
1           Cal Eldred  116 4.39 5.74 577.0 3.82 1991 1995  82 41 30 1.01 7.95 3.34 1.72 1.255
2      Doyle Alexander  106 4.05 3.15 762.1 3.52 1975 1978 127 47 38 0.72 8.48 3.10 1.02 1.287
3        Steve McCatty  106 4.23 4.46 627.1 3.56 1977 1981  99 39 33 0.83 8.48 3.67 1.21 1.350
4       Steve Trachsel  104 4.76 6.51 940.2 4.09 1993 1998 153 52 51 1.31 8.93 3.33 1.95 1.362
5        Chris Tillman  102 4.51 6.76 680.1 4.00 2009 2014 118 45 31 1.26 8.52 3.15 2.15 1.296
6    Jeremy Hellickson  101 4.36 6.51 640.0 3.78 2010 2014 115 40 36 1.17 8.40 2.95 2.20 1.261
7        Kyle Kendrick   97 4.82 4.64 757.2 4.30 2007 2012 164 54 42 1.19 9.66 2.60 1.79 1.362


Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 11/17/2014.


Age 28-29 seasons of these comps will not encourage

#4 is especially discouraging, and his 2006 season reeks of a team sticking with sub mediocre starters, and keeping potentially better starters in the bullpen "for the good of the team". No Déjà Vu again, one hopes.

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2014 9:59 pm 
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Ha ha.......please don't mind me for chuckling over the 2006 Trachsel/Heilman reference. :)

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 16, 2014 10:57 pm 
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This quote really rubs me the wrong way:

"“They [Williams and Velazquez] could both be All-Stars, but from our standpoint they’re three or four years away from being major league players,” says Stewart. “We have an opportunity to get a good starter to put in our rotation now and go along with our plans for our team with the 2015 season.”"

So, what's that plan? Is it that we should sell out our future to maybe (but probably not) become a .500 team that most likely wouldn't make the playoffs?

We need to stop this "be mediocre now" mentality and either be bad and build up our resources and not forfeit the future or sell the farm part and parcel and just go big. Anything in between isn't going to work.


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:30 am 
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wedge wrote:
This quote really rubs me the wrong way:

"“They [Williams and Velazquez] could both be All-Stars, but from our standpoint they’re three or four years away from being major league players,” says Stewart. “We have an opportunity to get a good starter to put in our rotation now and go along with our plans for our team with the 2015 season.”"

So, what's that plan? Is it that we should sell out our future to maybe (but probably not) become a .500 team that most likely wouldn't make the playoffs?

We need to stop this "be mediocre now" mentality and either be bad and build up our resources and not forfeit the future or sell the farm part and parcel and just go big. Anything in between isn't going to work.



Agree totally, I have been meaning to address that quote as well.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:33 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Ha ha.......please don't mind me for chuckling over the 2006 Trachsel/Heilman reference. :)

Facts is facts, laughter can be the best medicine, and it would seem that some never learn from history. Now if Jose Lima was one of the comps it would be totally hilarious.

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:20 am 
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Well, it could be worse.

Look what the Braves just got in return for Heyward!

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 10:47 am 
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JoeCB91 wrote:
Well, it could be worse.

Look what the Braves just got in return for Heyward!


That actually does make me feel a little better.


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 12:10 pm 
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ugh. I feel like we are sentenced another 4 year tenure of crappy management.


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:59 pm 
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qudjy1 wrote:
ugh. I feel like we are sentenced another 4 year tenure of crappy management.


Me too. :|

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:24 pm 
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Well, they just added an Analytics department, can someone check with them and see what their opinion was on the last trade and see if they can get a mulligan?

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 3:11 pm 
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It doesn't exactly inspire confidence in our new front-office regime when, with all due respect to shoe, a guy from the Internet can, in a clear and concise forum post using readily available data from the Internet, tell you why dealing for Hellickson is a bad idea.

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 17, 2014 4:26 pm 
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Well, in fairness, it's a lot easier from the couch than it is from within the office. For a GM it's very very hard to make the tough, cold hard decisions that need to be made to turn a franchise like this around. That takes the full backing of ownership. In Arizona they won't even use the word rebuilding, ever, let alone commit to a rebuilding strategy.

In that environment it's tough to be the lone advocate of a rebuilding course. If you do it with enough tact so as not to offend people you are not effective and possibly even get sucked into group think and survivalism. If you push the rebuild agenda too hard without regard to your political standing within an organization, people tune you out as too radical.

Thats why a lot of analytic guys get marginalized. They either go soft to fit in, waffling in their advocacy one way or the other, going with half measures, or they don't have the social and political skills to navigate conflicting philosophy and present their case strongly without offending or alienating people.

When I worked for the team I worked for a GM who was totally open and encouraging to all forms of input, and I never had to be shy about offering my opinion with him, or sugar coating my viewpoints. I had a direct unfiltered line to JB. But the 2007 playoff run really had everyone thinking the team was further along that it was, and the somewhat disappointing results of QUDJY (not the poster, the players) was never overcome. Oh....and bullpen shit happens. Relievers are a pain in the ass.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 18, 2014 10:00 pm 
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More comp work HERE

Click through if you're feeling brave. I took a different approach, and got a different group of pitchers, but equally discouraging.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 2:13 am 
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Quote:
Hellickson skipped

Pitching coach Mike Harkey said right-hander Jeremy Hellickson did not make his previously scheduled start in a minor league game because of a dead arm, adding there is no concern about Hellickson being ready to make his first scheduled start of the season.

"He got some treatment a couple of days after his last start and in his bullpen he was a little dead," Harkey said. "It was a perfect time to do it now in March than do it in April."

Harkey said Hellickson threw a bullpen session on Thursday and felt fine.

He is scheduled to face the Royals on Saturday at Salt River Fields, which lines him up to make one more start (April 2) before presumably pitching in the second game of the regular season on April 7.


Linky

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan


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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 3:01 am 
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How long until he's announced to be injured for 6-8 weeks?

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 Post subject: Re: Diamondbacks to acquire Hellickson
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2015 7:47 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
That takes the full backing of ownership.


Pay attention folks. How can a team that had record revenues last year. (But still lost money :?) not be able to afford a backup catcher for $5 million.

But hey the value of the franchise is up 44% in one year (Thank You Donald Sterling) and they got the new TV deal just before the bubble burst.


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