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 Post subject: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:31 pm 
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This from shoewizard:

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 5:57 pm 
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It was a mistake to let JB go, but as I understand it, he went down like an old Captain on the S.S. Hinch.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2014 6:14 pm 
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Here is the explanation for above

BKT stands for Before Kevin Towers, and refers to players that came into the organizaiton and were on the roster or in the minor league system before KT took over.

AKT are Kevin Towers guys, players he has brought either thru free agency, or trades.

There are two "exceptions". Joe Saunders 2011 numbers are in BKT for 2011, but his 2012 numbers are in AKT , as KT brought him back as a FA. The other is Montero, who's extension kicked in for the 2013 season. So 2011-2012 Montero is in BKT, and for 2013 he is in AKT. Some may argue this one, but thats the way I did it, and wanted to stay consistent.

So......

First look at 2011-2013. (top left box with the green header) This is the three year total. As you can see the playing time overall is split roughly in half, with more of the Hitters PT going to BKT hitters and more of the pitching playing time going to AKT pitchers. But the Hitters WAR skews very heavily to the BKT hitters, while the pitchers WAR skews slightly to the AKT pitchers. The thing to look at is the delta between the PT % and the WAR %.

But just looking at 2011-2013 in aggregate doesn't tell the full story, and isn't really fair. First of all the first year a GM takes over he is mostly taking over an existing team. And it will be a few years before his own draft classes can begin to make an impact. So lets look at the year by year breakdown.

2011 was clearly a year where the players Towers brought in, in aggregate did not contribute positive value to the division title run. Of course Putz and Hernandez stabilized the bullpen, and Aaron Hill was a great late season pickup. But value wise, a lot , actually all of that was offset by Towers dumpster diving. Guys like Mora, Nady, Blum, Miranda, Burrough, Branyan, Gallaragga, etc etc.....they all combined to completely offset the positive moves that KT made. Virtually 100% of the positive WAR 2011 came from the BKT guys. This greatly skews the 3 year total of course. The point here is KT and Gibby got a lot of credit for 2011. And maybe a Josh Byrnes/AJ Hinch lead team was not going to turn it around. But most likely that group of players would have done much better through positive regression anyway.

Moving on to 2012 , the WAR totals still favor the BKT hitters, but the delta between the PT% and the WAR% shrink. The gap is not as ridiculous as 2011. This is primarily due to Aaron Hill's great season. For the Pitchers however KT's pitchers dominated both the innings and the pitcher WAR totals. Kennedy's regression & Hudson's demise were major factors here, as were a good seasons by Cahill, Ziegler, Putz, and Hernandez.

But...unfortunately, as we moved on to 2013, KT's boys really fell flat as a group. They dominated the PT on the offensive side, but had half as much WAR, (thanks mostly to Goldy, Parra, and Pollock on the plus side for the BKT guys)

The AKT pitchers still have the advantage in Pitcher WAR, but as you can see the delta between the IP% and the WAR % not as big as 2012, and not enough to offeset the disappointment from the AKT hitters.

And this is where we are left. This is truly the make or break year in KT's tenure as GM. He brought in Trumbo of course. And Arroyo. And Reed. And he has a chance for his own draft class to start making an impact this year, (Bradley).

The above 4 boxes are the baseline. I don't see him improving the team, and thats unfortunate. He had a lot to work with starting out. But he has made a continued series of missteps with a few good moves sprinkled in. I don't see any big positive changes in the way he builds rosters coming anytime in the future. He isn't going to change his "methodology" now. But he may get lucky. Trumbo may hit 40 bombs, and the pitching staff may be better than we all think it will be. This is baseball.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 9:11 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
He had a lot to work with starting out. But he has made a continued series of missteps with a few good moves sprinkled in.

That sums it up. Not good enough to overcome the competitive disadvantage the club will face going forward.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 1:10 pm 
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stu wrote:
It was a mistake to let JB go, but as I understand it, he went down like an old Captain on the S.S. Hinch.

I was never a fan of the AJ move, but wish JB had remained here. He built a very good roster on a very limited budget that won the division twice. It's difficult to imagine the dbax having a GM with a pair of division titles under his/her belt (with the dbax) in the foreseeable future.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 3:10 pm 
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dirtygary wrote:
stu wrote:
It was a mistake to let JB go, but as I understand it, he went down like an old Captain on the S.S. Hinch.

I was never a fan of the AJ move, but wish JB had remained here. He built a very good roster on a very limited budget that won the division twice. It's difficult to imagine the dbax having a GM with a pair of division titles under his/her belt (with the dbax) in the foreseeable future.

This was the start of Byrnes' downfall, which weakened the team overall and may have precipitated the Hinch Era. I wasn't following the team at that time, but stubbornness appealed to be Byrnes' Achilles Heel, demonstrated by his acquiring Heilman, who demonstrated mediocrity as a reliever over the two prior seasons, and outright refusing to try him as a starter in spite of him demonstrating that he was capable of that roll the prior spring with the Cubs. This foreshadowed his stubborn refusal to replace Hinch, which ultimately cost him his job. Actually he came out way ahead on the deal, replacing Towers while still collecting on his DB contract.

Towers is following the same path, except he does it a little at a time, while Byrnes did it one fell swoop.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:48 pm 
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You mean the Aaron Heilman that hasn't pitched in the majors since he was with the Diamondbacks in 2011 and hasn't pitched in pro ball since 2012? The Aaron Heilman who hadn't started a regular season major league game since 2005? The Heilman that when he did start had one good season (2005, which was only 7 starts) that was not even good enough to warrant another mlb start the rest of his career? That Aaron Heilman? And Heilman is what cost Byrnes his job? I think you need to reevaluate your assessment of the situation.


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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 4:54 pm 
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David B wrote:
You mean the Aaron Heilman that hasn't pitched in the majors since he was with the Diamondbacks in 2011 and hasn't pitched in pro ball since 2012? The Aaron Heilman who hadn't started a regular season major league game since 2005? That Aaron Heilman? And Heilman is what cost Byrnes his job? I think you need to reevaluate your assessment of the situation.

I mentioned Heilman as an example of Byrnes' stubbornness, nothing more.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 7:55 pm 
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The first step of the Josh Byrnes downfall was his trade for Dan Haren. Everything that followed after that (the Valverde trade, the Byrnes extension) was collateral damage.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 8:53 pm 
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Lev, you have to post more so I can calibrate my sarcasm meeting. But the Byrnes signing was before the Haren trade. And I think just about everyone liked the Haren trade at the time. I guess we can blame it for Webb and Byrnes getting hurt though.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2014 10:21 pm 
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ReTired wrote:
David B wrote:
You mean the Aaron Heilman that hasn't pitched in the majors since he was with the Diamondbacks in 2011 and hasn't pitched in pro ball since 2012? The Aaron Heilman who hadn't started a regular season major league game since 2005? That Aaron Heilman? And Heilman is what cost Byrnes his job? I think you need to reevaluate your assessment of the situation.

I mentioned Heilman as an example of Byrnes' stubbornness, nothing more.


Well then, every other GM and Manager Heilman had since 2006 was stubborn too, because none of them started him either.


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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 4:30 am 
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David B wrote:
ReTired wrote:
David B wrote:
You mean the Aaron Heilman that hasn't pitched in the majors since he was with the Diamondbacks in 2011 and hasn't pitched in pro ball since 2012? The Aaron Heilman who hadn't started a regular season major league game since 2005? That Aaron Heilman? And Heilman is what cost Byrnes his job? I think you need to reevaluate your assessment of the situation.

I mentioned Heilman as an example of Byrnes' stubbornness, nothing more.


Well then, every other GM and Manager Heilman had since 2006 was stubborn too, because none of them started him either.

But we're talking about GM's who traded for him, not managers. Do you think trading for an overused reliever apparently on the decline was a good move for 2010? I didn't think so, unless it was to explore the possibility that he had value as a starter.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:10 am 
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Okay, a show of hands: If JB had been given the resources that KK & Co. have provided to KT, how much scraping of the bottom of the barrel might have been avoided? Would the AJH era have happened?

Also, wasn't the EB 3/$33M a joint fiasco, in which JB had limited culpability, given that the guy (whose name escapes me at the moment - coffee isn't ready yet) who left here to try to buy the Padres made the actual decision early on in JB's stint as GM?

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 6:56 am 
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stu wrote:
Lev, you have to post more so I can calibrate my sarcasm meeting. But the Byrnes signing was before the Haren trade. And I think just about everyone liked the Haren trade at the time. I guess we can blame it for Webb and Byrnes getting hurt though.


Bah. I must've been really sleep deprived last night. I meant to write that the Eric Byrnes extension was the debacle point... the big moves that followed (Haren trade, Valverde trade) were all precipitated by the Eric Byrnes and the stupid (and conceited) "must win now!" mentality

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2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 9:52 am 
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ReTired wrote:
But we're talking about GM's who traded for him, not managers. Do you think trading for an overused reliever apparently on the decline was a good move for 2010? I didn't think so, unless it was to explore the possibility that he had value as a starter.


Again, this is a player who, since he left the Diamondbacks, hasn't sniffed a start anywhere. It pretty much affirms the general consensus of him around baseball. And as far as acquiring him in the first place, AZ gave up a reliever who was out of baseball by the end of the 2010 season and another with a career ERA + of 75. It's not like they gave up Mariano Rivera for him. Lastly, prior to being acquired by AZ Heilman had ERA + seasons of 121, 142, 81, and 109. That sounds like on balance a reasonably productive relief pitcher (not one "in decline"). The Heilman deal was what it was--a reasonably low risk acquisition that didn't pan out.


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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2014 11:05 am 
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David B wrote:
ReTired wrote:
But we're talking about GM's who traded for him, not managers. Do you think trading for an overused reliever apparently on the decline was a good move for 2010? I didn't think so, unless it was to explore the possibility that he had value as a starter.


Again, this is a player who, since he left the Diamondbacks, hasn't sniffed a start anywhere. It pretty much affirms the general consensus of him around baseball. And as far as acquiring him in the first place, AZ gave up a reliever who was out of baseball by the end of the 2010 season and another with a career ERA + of 75. It's not like they gave up Mariano Rivera for him. Lastly, prior to being acquired by AZ Heilman had ERA + seasons of 121, 142, 81, and 109. That sounds like on balance a reasonably productive relief pitcher (not one "in decline"). The Heilman deal was what it was--a reasonably low risk acquisition that didn't pan out.


Well, I guess we'll just have to let General Consensus have the last word, since he is is without peer, and never, ever, misses trees in the forest.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 10:38 am 
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Saw this link from a few days ago, don't know if it has been posted here already but I think it is a good fit here.

Some good points, although a bit too forgiving of the Holmberg trade.

A step or three in the wrong direction

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 12:31 pm 
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ReTired wrote:
dirtygary wrote:
stu wrote:
It was a mistake to let JB go, but as I understand it, he went down like an old Captain on the S.S. Hinch.

I was never a fan of the AJ move, but wish JB had remained here. He built a very good roster on a very limited budget that won the division twice. It's difficult to imagine the dbax having a GM with a pair of division titles under his/her belt (with the dbax) in the foreseeable future.

This was the start of Byrnes' downfall, which weakened the team overall and may have precipitated the Hinch Era.

I disagree that acquiring a CY candidate on a $16M/3yr deal and produced a pair of seasons with a 138 and 142 era+ - and was paired with a CY winner - led to the downfall of the Club.

A) JByrne was most likely under a win-now/go-for-it mandate;

B) The position players included in the deal were already blocked for the foreseeable future;

B) THIS played a much larger role in the downfall of the Club.

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 2:47 pm 
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dirtygary wrote:

I disagree that acquiring a CY candidate on a $16M/3yr deal and produced a pair of seasons with a 138 and 142 era+ - and was paired with a CY winner - led to the downfall of the Club.

A) JByrne was most likely under a win-now/go-for-it mandate;

B) The position players included in the deal were already blocked for the foreseeable future;

B) THIS played a much larger role in the downfall of the Club.


The first year it worked well, but the second year, even with Webb was not so good. Then came two atrocious years, where the players traded for Haren could have made a difference. How much better would 2009 and 2010 have been with a healthy Webb? Would Upton and Parra have been better if not rushed to fill voids left by the trade? Would we have been spared the Towers Era?

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 Post subject: Re: How much have Kevin Towers moves paid off?
 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2014 3:09 pm 
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ReTired wrote:
dirtygary wrote:

I disagree that acquiring a CY candidate on a $16M/3yr deal and produced a pair of seasons with a 138 and 142 era+ - and was paired with a CY winner - led to the downfall of the Club.

A) JByrne was most likely under a win-now/go-for-it mandate;

B) The position players included in the deal were already blocked for the foreseeable future;

B) THIS played a much larger role in the downfall of the Club.


The first year it worked well, but the second year, even with Webb was not so good.

That 2nd yr Webb pitched 4 innings. You may count that as "With Webb", but I don't.

CarGo is regrettable, but he was behind CY/JU, and Oakland isn't going to ship out a cost-controlled CY candidate for nothing.

Brett Anderson had a 4 era over 175 IP's for OAK in 2009 - but his IP's since have gone: 112 - 83 - 35 - 44. So I'm not crying about losing BAnderson and his 1 decent season.

The rest - Cunningham/Carter/Smith/Eveland have produced a total of 4.6 war from 2008-2013. That's 4 players with 6 seasons and a total of 4.6, or roughly .19 WAR/yr/player. I don't know how we ever managed to get by without those 4. :roll:


It's interesting that nobody complains about what we got in that trade - because there's nothing to complain about. Haren was awesome and he was cheap. It seems the only complaining is that JB wasn't able to get a cheap CY candidate for free. Oh the horror, he had to give something to get something...

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