Agree with Shoe's comments - see no reason to do anything with AJ. A substantial portion of his value to the organization right now is his relative inexpensiveness. If you want to overpay for a CF in 4-6 years, there will be plenty of guys available through FA who will be happy to cash your checks.

Better yet, groom the next AJ, Ender, etc. from within.

But unless you want to go back to the KT days. . . hoard the inexpensive, young talent and let it go when it gets expensive.
And don't spend tomorrow's money on something you likely won't even need then. Keep those dollars available to spend on a true need - at that time.

Let me know if you still feel the same way after reading THIS COMMENT

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Ok, this post does not change what I wrote above, but prepare to have your mind blown.

If you go back to the start of 2014, and look at guys with at least 502 PA over that span and calculate WAR PER/650 PA, in other words, on a rate basis.....AJ Pollock has been the most valuable player per PA in all of baseball ....better even than Mike Trout.



Now don't get me wrong. Health is a skill, and in order to have ACTUAL value, you need to be on the field. 500 PA over 1 1/3 seasons means you missed a lot of time. But AJ was hit by a pitch, and doesn't have chronic knee or hamstring issues, stuff like that.

On the other hand.....regression is bound to happen. Steve Pearce is a good example of that. So I am not trying to make this list out to be more than it is. BUT Pollock has been having a heck of a run.

I still don't want to spend big on an extension in the glow of the current hot streak. He WILL regress...you can be sure of that. However it will be interesting to see where this stands at the end of the season.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Only starting 45 of the teams 54 games doesn't help his WAR, and it could upset his ability to stay in a groove.

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There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

If you could sign him this off-season to 5/$50-$55, do you consider that spending big?

I like your original 5/40-50mil$ better, and I do not consider that spending big for him. Just make sure that is the absolute ceiling on a deal. He wants 5/56mil$, he walks.

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Per Mare, Per Terras
KC

AJ is a good player in his peak window. 27.5 yrs old with about 1,000 MLB PA's. Not the type of player to be afraid of a big burst in HR power that will drive his Arb costs way up like Goldy had the potential for, just a really good, well-rounded player. For cheap. The Club should let that play out, continue to monitor the cost/WAR, and then deal him when he gets to Arb3 and his cost/WAR becomes too high.

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

By then it would probably be too late. That is the risk taken if not extended now, when he might consider long term security worth a possible discount.. Not likely to happen after he has money in the bank, and a bright future ahead.

_________________
There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

The Club has to ask itself whether it has the financial resources necessary to have the luxury of making $50M commitments in the hopes of saving $2M-$3M. That's a tremendous strategy for large-payroll clubs more capable of absorbing mistakes, but with the DBax particular circumstances, it seems that avoiding deals longer than necessary to retain the player while maintaining as much financial flexibility as possible is the optimal strategy for more limited payrolls.

Maybe one of the casualties from limited resources is the Club is unable to overpay players beyond Arb on the wrong side of 30; and would that be terrible? (aside from the unique circumstances like Goldy where we're talking about a cornerstone player, of course)

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

What do you guys think AJ is gonna get in Arbitration ?

In 2016 he's first year ARB. He'll likely make 2.5 to 3 M absolute tops. Take the 3.

Now double that for 2017 to 6 M, and then figure 10 for 2018

Thats 19 M.

So you want to then commit to 2 years, 31 million or a little over 15 M per year for his first two years of FA, which will be ages 31 and 32 for a guy who's fielding and base running value is still at about 40% higher than his batting value.

What is the upside here ?

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

If my choice is
a) pay him $50-55mm for the next five arb/FA years (through age 32)
b) pay him $15-20mm for the next three arb years (through age 30)

. . . no question I go with door B. Let someone else risk overpaying for him on the wrong side of 30. Plenty of other options will be likely either internally or via FA for <$35mm/2 years in 2019. Internally, WAY less than $35mm/2. Remember, AJ will likely be at his plateau/decline phase by then.

My personal view is AZ desperately needed to abandon the KT model and, as a mid-payroll team, obsessively focus on hoarding the young, inexpensive talent and let the aging, expensive talent walk or use in trades to stockpile more youngsters. The exception would be the occasional Goldschmidt or J-Up (oops). But even those exceptions would only be around for the few FA years you could afford to buy out of arb years. Then you just have to let those guys go to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers or Angels.

That they indeed did put an end to the KT madness restores some hope in me that they can create a sustainable model of competitiveness that might SLOWLY build some fan loyalty similar to what St. Louis has done. But it takes time and they have to start educating their fanbase (and front office folks, btw) about what it takes to do that here. Otherwise they will get sucked into that malignant, destructive cycle of promoting the 'face of the franchise', painting themselves into a corner where they either award that 'face' (Gonzo, Byrnes, Prado. . . rinse and repeat) with an obscene contract that destroys the organization's competitiveness. Alternatively, if they decide they can't give out that contract, they end up with Gonzo v2.0 and a pissed-off, disenfranchised fanbase. AZ can't win that way.

It is, sadly, a business. To win, you have to execute as a successful business does. That includes educating your investors (fans) as to how you are going to operate to succeed over the long-term.

Fangraphs

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/forgot-a ... j-pollock/

The Cardinals signed Holliday to a seven year $120M deal at the start of his age 30 season. They signed Peralta to 4/$53M beginning in his age 31-32 season. They signed Molina to a five year extension beginning in his age 30-31 season for 5/$75M. Signed Wainwright to a 5/$97.5M extension beginning in his age 32 season.

I think Shoe's arb figures are a little light, maybe by $3.5-4.5M. So if his two FA years cost the Dbacks $27M or $13.5M per season four years down the road that probably isn't that bad considering he could still be very productive and $13.5M will probably be the equivalent of $9-10M today.

I think the model most of you are calling for is not the Cardinals, but rather the Oakland A's.

I'd love it if the club could adopt a Cardinals-type of model, but the community support and resources more closely resemble the A's.

The real problem is if the Dbax can't develop good well-rounded ballplayers to replace AJ when he becomes expensive.

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What can we say about the Diamondbacks Franchise that hasn't already been said about Afghanistan?

The Dbacks have always had problems developing players the caliber of AJ. Not sure their are many teams that develop AJ caliber players for CF, assuming that AJ is not just a flash in the pan.

These examples have NOTHING to do with Pollock

As I explained very clearly, if Pollock's value was flip flopped, meaning his BATTING value was more than his Fielding and Baserunning value, but overall value was the same, then for sure you think about extending him. But that simply isn't the case. Not yet. Obviously if he keeps hitting like he has lately for an entire season, you can take a look at it at the end of the year. But you want to rush off and sign him to extension now in the middle of a hot streak without thinking it all the way through. It's just not wise or prudent.

As for your examples:

Holliday got to the Cardinals in his last arb year, and then at the end of the season they signed him to an extension. So right off the bat, from a pure business/contractual perspective, it's two COMPLETELY different situations.

Secondly, Holliday was a proven POWER bat, averaging 25 homers a year through age 29, and a 133 OPS+ in over 3600 PA's, (park and league adjusted...obviously wasn't all Coors field)

Thirdly, and back to the point about HOW the value was created, Holliday had 167 batting runs and -10 fielding runs through age 29. Thats not the type of player that Pollock is. He creates more value with his legs and fielding than he does with his bat, recent hot streak notwithstanding. This has been the crux of my point from the beginning of this debate, but you are ignoring it completely and then trot out this Holliday comp. I don't get it.

Peralta: Again same thing. Holy apples and oranges batman ! He was a free agent, he was never controlled by the Cardinals in his arb years. What in the heck does he have to do with Pollock ? The only thing remotely even relevant here I guess is that you are pointing out a player that was successful and earned his contract at age 31. So ? That doesn't have anything to do with the D Backs or the Pollock situation.

And of course Peralta was always known as a bat first Shortstop, with 20 homer pop and an average for a SS at best glove. His career batting runs before signing the deal : +22, fielding runs -22. So again, completely different profile to Pollock.

Molina and Waignwright ? Yeah, I don't even need to point out why the catcher and the pitcher don't apply here.

I just don't get what your rush is ? I need to at least see Pollock maintain this BATTING level to the end of this year. Then we can talk.

EDIT: By the way, to address your "Cards vs. A's" model accusation (it was an accusation kind of) what about examples like Allen Craig and David Freese ? Cards dumped those guys before free agency despite some really good arb years by both.

They don't keep everybody.

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

I didn't mean to imply that I would extend him now. Of course I want to see what he does for the rest of this season. I would like to see 16-20 HR and .300 AVG./.350 OBP before I offer the kind of extension I was talking about.

ah...got it. All this talk of extending him, I thought you guys meant now.

I'm happy to revisit at the end of the year. (like it's up to me....lol)

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Good depth often has to come from within, in the form of younger talent. Depth is hard to build overnight, but it’s easy to deplete. Jeff Sullivan

Re Cardinals:
Didn't they let some guy named Albert walk?

_________________
There's no success like failure
And failure's no success at all

Im not talking numbers Im talking marketing.

Goldy=Tulo
AJ=Cargo

And look where thats got the Rockies.

Its all about Pitching and we have none. Just like the Rockies.

I want a GM who has the balls to make the deal that brings in a haul of young talent so we can either develop some pitching or sign some pitching.

If not, we aren't the A's, we aren't the Cards. We are the Rockies 2.0