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 Post subject: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podcast
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 6:30 am 
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LINK


From about minute 18 to minute 37

Great stuff.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:17 am 
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Great stuff. How long before Derrick Hall locks him out of Chase Field because he's not wearing the right polo shirt?

I actually thought he was pretty objective about it and gave Towers some credit, while still acknowledging why he thinks these deals are a mistake.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:06 pm 
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Nick is always pretty fair and objective.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 21, 2013 5:45 pm 
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I mentioned this on another thread, but the Dbacks front office guys must be a case study for combination of "self-serving attribution bias" and "confirmation bias".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-serving_bias

Quote:
A self-serving bias, sometimes called a self-serving attributional bias, refers to individuals attributing their successes to internal or personal factors but attributing their failures to external or situational factors.[1] This bias is a mechanism for individuals to protect or enhance their own self-esteem.[2] For example, a student who attributes a good grade on an exam to his or her own intelligence and hours of studying but a poor grade to the professor’s poor teaching ability and unfair test questions is exhibiting the self-serving bias. Studies have shown that similar attributions are made in various situations, such as the workplace,[3] interpersonal relationships,[4] sports,[5] and consumer decisions.[6]


http://www.sciencedaily.com/articles/c/ ... n_bias.htm

Quote:
In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias (or confirmatory bias) is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors. Confirmation bias is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study.

Confirmation bias is a phenomenon wherein decision makers have been shown to actively seek out and assign more weight to evidence that confirms their hypothesis, and ignore or underweigh evidence that could disconfirm their hypothesis. As such, it can be thought of as a form of selection bias in collecting evidence.

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#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 4:22 am 
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I think we all do that at least sometimes....it's just a matter of how often.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:05 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Nick is always pretty fair and objective.


That would be enough to get him fired from the Dbacks.

Actually, both Law and Nick, I thought, were fair. They acknowledge that the team should be a contender and that other than Pennington, the lineup is all average to above average players.

With Pennington (and I never thought I would write this line, "he may not match Bloomquist's offense", but his D should be much better. With Pennington and Prado the D on the left side should be much better.

They were a 86 pyth team lat year. Eaton should match Young's offense. Everyone says Eaton's D is outstanding. He is fast, but I did not see the jumps or the routes last year. We'll see.

Ross' career OPS+ is 107, the same as Upton's last year so any the same O. (Ross' OPS+ last year was 113). Much worse D though.

Prado will be huge improvement at third, maybe 2-5 wins? 5 wins here alone with everything else being equal and clutch hitting going back to normal would mean a 91 win team.

Pitching looks about the same. Kennedy should be better than last year, but not as good as 2011. Cahill the same. Miley some regression. McCarthy about the same as Saunders and Corbin a little better. The pen about the same. Bell may add something, but the pen was pretty good last year.

The big questions to be are Montero, Hill and Goldschmidt. They had very good years. I would be surprised if they all match it (especially Hill).

As Nick pointed put, this team is built to win now. The problem I think we all had was not that the team is going to be that much weaker from last year, but that there is no real long term future with this group of players and there is no one like Upton who could be a super star.

Likely they will win 88 games, just miss the playoffs and trumpet the year as a rousing success.

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 1:38 pm 
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I'd be pretty satisfied with 88 wins


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:27 pm 
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I think 88 is wildly optimistic, but I'd love to be proven wrong.

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:30 pm 
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I'm thinking 83-85 at best.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:29 pm 
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dbackfanron wrote:
I'm thinking 83-85 at best.


Lev used to have a line about this: "The tyranny of low expectations" or something like that. This was an 86 win team with Upton at a 107 OPS+ and Kennedy below average. If they don't match 86 wins this season the seasonis a fail IMO (plus I lose a bet).

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 22, 2013 8:35 pm 
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Stu, you can't look at it that way. For example, the team was a 81 win team with a 86 win pythag thanks in large part to a 6 win season from Aaron Hill and really good seasons from Montero and Goldschmidt, and 28 double plays in like 12 innings from Brad Ziegler. There was likely to be regression to the mean all over the place with this team, meaning some guys were going to be better and some worse than last year.

But the day they traded Upton the Vegas book makers dropped the D Backs playoff odds.

Eaton at the top of the order, being a dynamic leadoff hitter, in the Gritty Lenny Dyskstra mold is the one thing that could make the Grit experiment payoff. Without that, this lineup will be rudderless and anchorless. Just a collection of decent, unspectacular guys without a star player and without a spark.

If Eaton isn't back by Mid May, and effective right out of the gate, this team is probably a sub .500 team.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:01 am 
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Great! An excuse for Towers.


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 7:29 am 
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Of course they'd blame failures on injuries this year, when they blamed laziness and selfishness last year when Bauer, Upton, and CY suffered injuries.

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:26 am 
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shoewizard wrote:
Stu, you can't look at it that way. For example, the team was a 81 win team with a 86 win pythag thanks in large part to a 6 win season from Aaron Hill and really good seasons from Montero and Goldschmidt, and 28 double plays in like 12 innings from Brad Ziegler. There was likely to be regression to the mean all over the place with this team, meaning some guys were going to be better and some worse than last year.

But the day they traded Upton the Vegas book makers dropped the D Backs playoff odds.

Eaton at the top of the order, being a dynamic leadoff hitter, in the Gritty Lenny Dyskstra mold is the one thing that could make the Grit experiment payoff. Without that, this lineup will be rudderless and anchorless. Just a collection of decent, unspectacular guys without a star player and without a spark.

If Eaton isn't back by Mid May, and effective right out of the gate, this team is probably a sub .500 team.


That is why you start with what they did last year and work from there. I think the pyth number is a better starting point than actual wins. The primary question I had, as stated in my initial post, was whether Hill, Goldschmidt and Montero could match last year performances. But even if you knock Hill down to 2 wins you probably pick up 4 with Prado so you are still at 86.

A point I was making was that Upton's and Young's production last year should be about matched, at least offensively and they were a 86 pyth win team last year.

As for Vegas, their goal is to set a line that will have 50% of the bettors on each side. Losing Upton certainly caused a negative buzz based on his potential, not what he did last year. Consequently a lower win total by Vegas.

The kicker now is the injuries. An outfield of Parra, Pollock and Bloomquist does not bode well.

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 5:20 pm 
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Fair enough, good points all.

I guess the biggest difference really is that I personally start with their projections for 2013 and work from that as the base


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 6:29 pm 
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Do you look at individual projections and then try to figure out the team or just go to team projections? Can you share any numbers?

BP had the Dbacks at 83 wins with a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:29 pm 
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stu wrote:
shoewizard wrote:
Nick is always pretty fair and objective.


That would be enough to get him fired from the Dbacks.


Nick doesn't work for the Dbacks. He works for the AZ Republic. Big difference. AZ Republic used to have a small ownership part in the Dbacks but I believe they sold it a while ago, around the time Kendrick began consolidating power and kicked Jeff Moorad to the curb. So Nick can be as objective as he wants.

There's always the risk that the Dbacks may try to make Nick's work more difficult, but I don't see how they can do that without looking terrible. They cannot ban Nick from covering the team without incurring the wrath of BBWAA. And they cannot be preventing Nick from doing his job as a reporter.

Sure, Gibson can be grumpy to Nick, but who cares. I think he gets along with the players just fine.

Steve works for MLB, which is a different animal altogether. He cannot be critical to MLB, or to any of the teams, without probably risking his job. The Dbacks probably indirectly pay some part of his salary. You can easily see the difference in the writing. Not sure if he is required to wear Dbacks polo shirts.

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:31 pm 
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stu wrote:
dbackfanron wrote:
I'm thinking 83-85 at best.


Lev used to have a line about this: "The tyranny of low expectations" or something like that. This was an 86 win team with Upton at a 107 OPS+ and Kennedy below average. If they don't match 86 wins this season the seasonis a fail IMO (plus I lose a bet).


The soft bigotry of low expectations. And it's not my line, it's Dubya's.

http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/art ... 0923.shtml

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:39 pm 
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shoewizard wrote:
I think we all do that at least sometimes....it's just a matter of how often.


Speak for yourself :lol:

_________________
#Dbacks #Math

2013: #Grit > #Power + #Strikeouts
2014: #Grit < #Power + #Strikeouts
2015: Y = ???
2016: X = #Profit
2017: #Hall = #Commissioner


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 Post subject: Re: Piecoro Dishes on D Backs offseason on Keith Law's Podca
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 23, 2013 9:31 pm 
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stu wrote:
Do you look at individual projections and then try to figure out the team or just go to team projections? Can you share any numbers?

BP had the Dbacks at 83 wins with a 40% chance of making the playoffs.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/


I am working on numbers this morning actually, but I look at individual numbers and total them up for the team. It's not really accurate if you don't do the entire league at the same time of course.

I think BP had DB at 81 wins in their first couple of iterations a month ago. That table is tied to playing time projections from their depth chart pages....or should be. They actually have DB at 85 wins in the depth chart but 83 wins in the playoff odds, so who know what the hell they are doing. FYI they already dinged Hanley's PT for LA, but not yet Eaton's PT for AZ, (or Ross' for that matter) OTOH, they haven't yet updated Chase Headley's PT for SD, and since they are all related and in the same division and it effects each other, they should do a better job of keeping up to date.


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